All this talk about bullion and only one mention about platinum... maybe I'm one of the few that did well for selling at 40% above what I bought it at Does anyone know why the 20-to-1 ratio for gold to silver melt value doesn't exist anymore? And also, I heard last summer from my dealer friend that there was only an 18 month supply of silver above ground, after whichthe government would have to re-open some of the mines. Think that's true?
roadrunner, where's that bet mentioned? If I could be sure he'd make good on it, there's probably a hedged play to be made that would guarantee me a profit.
Greg, wouldnt you like to know! CALL SOME GOLD FUNDS, its not ROCKET SCIENCE! Enough said, Its time to put your money where your mouth is! Im getting the idea you think were headed back to $300, I have $100 that says we hit $400 first! Roadrunner, when the Gregs of the world are no longer talking doom and gloom, its time to get out! Your $395 is probably not too far off, $420 has always been a major hurdle! Remember, you can sell the same way you buy, pieces at a time!
By the way Greg, I think Im due a little credit for having been right so far! I know your Mean and Evil, but maybe you can stand up and be a man, even if it kills you!
You can fool man but you can't fool God! He knows why you do what you do!
I have been listening to all of this and can't believe some of what I am hearing. How can you take the kind of risk paying a HIGH PREMIUM for bullion gold or any precious metal and sell it for another HIGH DISCOUNT and epect to make a reasonable profit.
I think you "Weathered" coin collectors have had the best method, over time that I've seen and that is buying High quality numismatics at a fair price and holding them. These rare coins will increase in value a a much better rate than will bullion.
If you really think that gold is going to the moon over the next 6 months, then buy options. If you think gold is really going down, then buy puts. Its a hell of a lot cheaper ris than buyin bullion.
For the record, just like stocks and everything else...I don't know which direction any of it is going.
I do know this, those of you who steadily bought $20 St Gaudens high quality coins over the past 30 years have an opportunity to be really rich.
Supercoin, check out Sinclair's post dated 12/31 Tech Review in the upper left corner of the home page for www.financialsense.com. He alludes to the fact that none of the Elliot Wavers have taken him up on his offer. Maybe you can be the first to do so! Maybe Sinclair has his bet hedged too! I'm sure the guy has Price Waterhouse or someone similar ready to handle the escrow account.
I thought of a wager than sounds interesting. I'd bet that on 12/31 2003 at midnight, the DOW will be lower than it is today, and gold will be higher. That's 2 things that must occur. The opposite bet would be that the DOW will be higher and gold will be lower. If both don't occur, you don't win. Supercoin, wouldn't this be an interesting bet? It favors anyone looking for a stock recovery this year (and its corollary that gold will get beat back down due to stock bullishness).
Silver could be a much better play than gold as someone just mentioned. The historical ratios used to be much much lower. Even during the peak in 1980 the ratio was 18:1. Today it's 74:1. Should the silver bulls be right that there is very limited silver actually left, silver will boom. The US has depleted its stockpile and the now the Mint has to go out to buy material for its silver eagles. Everyone has thought silver was crap for the last 22 years. Just like clad coinage. After years of abuse there just may not be much left to satisfy a marked increase in demand.
So far I have not had one taker from the loyal Elliott Wave counters on my offer of a $100,000 wager that gold will close above $400 in 2003. I am absolutely serious. If you believe that Elliott Wave Analysis guarantees you gold at $200 before it sees $401, please take my money.
It's not clear if the bet is strictly that gold closes above $400 (or not), or if he's trying to weasel out with that last sentence. If it's the former, I think it's probably a dumb bet on his part, but I'd have to explore some options pricing to see if it's dumb enough to make me money.
I find it a little humorous that he apparently disparages Elliot Waver technical analysis when he is talking cups and saucers and breakouts with this graph. All that's missing is a lump of sugar.
I think Sinclair's bet is pretty simple. Gold closes at $400 an ounce. I haven't followed all the Elliot Wave disciples to recall how they came to the $200 gold conclusion. But from reading Sinclair's comments over the past 6 months he follows logical methods of Technical Analysis. In fact he's about called everything right so far this year. Since he is also calling for a swift gold spike next week above the $354 resistance level, you can disparage him here when he's proven wrong.......or commend him for calling it right.
Short-term playing with gold and "market timing" it, guessing where it will go and so forth = betting on horses, or gambling in other words. Only BIG difference is you have more technical crap to add to your "feelings."
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Greg, wouldnt you like to know! CALL SOME GOLD FUNDS, its not ROCKET SCIENCE!
WSM, stop the bull sh*t. You're telling me that these gold funds know what their deposits will be when gold hits certain levels that haven't been hit in decades. Some people here might believe you, but not the smart ones.
You have no clue as to the inflows at these levels. The gold funds themselves don't have any idea. The numbers you provided were not only completely pulled out of your ass, but they were laughable. $700 million a day at $650/ounce. $182 billion a year.
$8 million a day ($2+ billion a year) when gold is at the $425-$450 range. Tell us "Wall Street Man", how many gold funds have assets anywhere near $2 billion?
Enough said, Its time to put your money where your mouth is! Im getting the idea you think were headed back to $300, I have $100 that says we hit $400 first!
I do think we will see $300 before $400. If we hit $400, I'm sure we'll have a bunch of ostriches (you leading the way) screaming that $500/$600/$7 trillion is next.
As for putting my money where my mouth is, you seemed to have missed the whole point of this thread. Not surprising that of all the people to miss it, it would be you.
I *invest* in what I know.
Roadrunner, when the Gregs of the world are no longer talking doom and gloom, its time to get out! Your $395 is probably not too far off, $420 has always been a major hurdle! Remember, you can sell the same way you buy, pieces at a time!
No, no, no. Gold is going to $7,000,000,000,000,000,000 an ounce. When these gold funds start getting $23 trillion a day in deposits, they will have to buy more gold, driving the price up. I have a few small gold items that will be worth more than Bill Gates once this happens!
By the way Greg, I think Im due a little credit for having been right so far! I know your Mean and Evil, but maybe you can stand up and be a man, even if it kills you!
Are you f***ing insane? You've yet to be right a single time about anything as long back as I can remember. You make baseless statements, blindly support what you like as if it were god, and ignore facts and reason and you are now claiming to be right? You're a true piece of work.
In fact he's about called everything right so far this year.
4-day track record, huh? I don't have a clue what the guy's long-term track record has been, but if he's been a consistent gold bug it probably doesn't look so good until recently. I think there are probably a lot of gold bugs looking like geniuses and trying to forget their past. Just as former stock-picking heroes are dogs now. There's some old saying about a bull market making everyone look like a genius!
But, the reason I think the guy's bet is dumb is not because I think his prediction is wrong (I don't know), but because he's putting a big bet on a specific price. If I took his bet, I think I may be able to buy some options for say $50K that would be worth over $100K if gold hits $400. So if it hits that price, I cash my options, pay him off, and bank a small profit. If it doesn't, my $50K options expire worthless but he pays me $100K and I bank $50K. But... if gold doesn't hit his price it may be he's losing his shirt on other bets and not in the mood to pay me off. I'm not sure he could find an escrow account to be his bookie. Unless maybe he lives in Nevada.
Personally I don't know or currently care either way on the gold market. It's pretty obvious to me that it's been a terrible long-term investment, but as a short-term trading vehicle there may be some interesting opportunities.
I'm not sure I'll jump in, but if I do, it will probably be to short-sell it if attracts enough attention where ma & pa American are buying into it. Which might happen, as other investments aren't looking very good right now and the world is a scary place. But I don't feel confident enough of that to buy in anticipation. Easier to wait and see if mania does hit a fever pitch, and if it does... wait for it to break and ride it down.
I know little about the gold market, but... mania is mania. Will be interesting to see if it happens.
Okay, I will add my 2-1/2 cents.... I would avoid gold right now unless I could short it Of course, if you have a ton of gold, sell it while the going is good. The trick is to buy low and sell high, not buy high and sell low.
<< <i>Supercoin, how about me and you buy some savings bonds together instead of gold? Heh. >>
Hey i remember those . On mondays i would buy a stamp and put it in a book at school. When the book was full i would turn it in for a savings bond. I wonder what the books from the early 50's with stamps in them are worth?
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
What I wonder is why are so many people so hyped to see the price of gold skyrocket? Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the climbing price of gold go hand in hand with not so desirable conditions in the world? Why would so many people like to see war, inflation, famine and all sorts of economic woe inflicted on the majority of folks in the world so they can make a few bucks. Heck, I would rather gold stay the same and conditions in the world remain constant but history won't allow for that. Its a rotten job but somebody has to do it.
None of us has created the current situation we live in. But we all have to do what we can to survive in it. It is rotten that we can't buy Tech stocks and make 20% per year forever. Now we can't even make 10% or even 5% per year owning stocks. Gold seems to be the next game in town. Buy low and sell high. I agree. Gold and silver are currently LOW. When gold was $260 in 1999 there was little economic reason to want to hold it. The cards were stacked against it. Slowly over the next year things began unraveling. Even though gold is $350 now, there are over half a dozen or more compelling sound economic reasons to own it. I see no compelling economic reasons to hold stocks other than stocks are lower than they were 3 years ago. Hardly a compelling reason. No more compelling than gold being higher than it was 3 years ago! Gem 1916d Merc dimes are higher than they were 3 years ago. They'll probably be higher still in 3 more years.
Supercoin, read a little more on Sinclair's background. He was a major player in the '77-'80 gold and silver market. He claims to have sold his major stake in physical gold on the very day in 1980 that it peaked. Some blamed his selling ultimately responsible for dumping the gold market. He then "retired" from physical gold trading once he realized that the Fed's long term plan was anti-gold. He then founded his own gold exploration company. As far as I know he only reappeared publically in the last year or two proclaiming a new bull market in gold emerging. I have to say that this is a fairly good track record. There are probably very few people in the world with his knowledge of tangible markets and futures/derivative trading. He claims to have written some of the logic behind the very programs that drive gold derivative trading. He's sticking his neck out and making weekly and sometimes daily calls that others aren't. I'll listen to what he has to say before the "clueless amateurs" on the Forum.
Ok, assuming that to be the case (not sure why he'd start a gold exploration company if he thought there was no good market for it, but that aside...) he has then made TWO major correct calls.
There are probably 9,999 other gold guru wannabes who have been terribly wrong.
So, is this guy truly an exception, or did he just get lucky? Honestly, I really don't know, haven't looked into it, and really don't have any incentive to do so.
But, the danger of following a guru is that if you don't make the decision for yourself, you are at the guru's mercy. And if it turns out he's just lucky... down you go with him.
The reason why I feel strongly about this is that some years ago I lost a substantial amount of money following the advice of a stock market guru who had made a couple of legendary market calls. Turned out they were just lucky. In retrospect, I was incredibly stupid, and it's not a mistake I'll make again.
In the stock market at least, many gurus have come and gone. By the laws of chance, some are going to look like geniuses from time to time.
While I am certainly an amateur in gold investing, I am certainly not one in investing and dealing with financial markets. The bottom line is, no one knows where gold is going, and more importantly, it can go any variety of ways. No one knows if the greatest technological and economic boom is around the corner for us, or World War 3. No one knows what the interest rates will be, what homes will be worth, where Nasdaq will be, or if Silver will be at $2.65 an ounce. The world is far too dynamic to predict anything much about gold -- it could go to $500 an oz. or crash back down to $250 if certain things change in 2003.
No one knows, and many people who push for claims that support it going one way or the other have some sort of financial interest in doing so. I know this, because gold is one of those investments that can change or continue direction over a myriad of reasons, at any time, for any length of time. To suggest knowing otherwise, is as ridiculous as claiming in 1999 that you know where Lucent's stock, interest rates, and real estate would be in 2002.
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Ara, those coins with the horses on them are beautiful. I've been meaning to tell the people around here who sport those gold coin images that they really are great.
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Supercoin, I agree whole heartedly. There are a number of other gurus making the same calls in different ways. I'm sure that Sinclair is a major holder of gold right now. He would like nothing better than to see gold become a major player in the LONG TERM. If that doesn't happen, I'm sure he'll be happy with short term wins.
He is urging fellow gold disciples to go out and buy a $33,000 - 100 oz. Comex contract with physical delivery. I'm not going to be doing that anytime soon...guru or not. Nice Saints and Libs are about my speed.
I too once took the advice of a BU Washington quarter guru in the mid 1970's. He said they were going to "triple." I proceeded to go out and stock up on early dates in choice BU. I might ad that he was right too! It just took 25 years for it to happen.
RR, well that quarter guy did better than some gold bugs predicting the same thing a few years later. You bring up another problem with some recommendations (though probably not in the gold market due to it's size)... those recommending something often have a vested interest. And if they have enough influence (like some stock analysts in the past), they can buy something, recommend it to others, and sell into the resulting buying wave. Nice work while it lasts.
FF, just so nobody thinks I'm agreeing with you across the board... Many price movements ARE predictable, with a degree of certainty, and within certain time frames. There are plenty of traders in various markets who prove that year after year.
Certainly it's not easy, but you also don't have to be perfectly right to make money if you combine your predictions with sound money management.
The gold markets seem to me to be more difficult than others to predict due to all the geopolitical influences, central banks, and the fact that nobody really needs the stuff... but nonetheless I'm sure there are gold traders out there who make a good living doing just that.
You are talking about exceptions to the rule, a rare bunch who still fail quite often. A small bunch that do not prove anything to negate what I am saying -- in fact, they support it, by showing how rare it is to time markets consistently and how many of those will wind up losing in the end, too.
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A rare bunch perhaps, but not as rare as those investors who have made money buying and holding gold for the long-term.
Even "successful" long-term gold investors probably still need to get in line behind Granny and her passbook savings account.
I've never seen anything (other than hype) to indicate gold has ever been a good long-term investment. A disaster hedge, maybe (though a poor one compared to a stockpile of baked beans and a gun). A good instrument for short-term speculation or trading, maybe (but there are long dry spells of very little price movement).
The trick is to buy low and sell high, not buy high and sell low.
I don't neccesarily disagree with this trick but the other day while paying a visit to my local area coin shop and I said to Don, "what are you buying gold at these days?" (remind you, I've never have sold gold before but have bought it) So Don says. "I'm buying gold at $350 and selling at $380." Well this put a damper on my get rich quick scheme since now I have this $30 spread to worry about. So gold will need to drop back to $320 before I can buy that same ounce of gold I sold at $350. Does anyone feel my pain? Are there buyers with less spreads out there? I wantto buy at $320 and sell at $350 or whatever. This percent increase sounds like I'm paying the dealers taxes. I also asked Don how high will he buy gold and he said as long as I can blow it out of here, I'm buying.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
Spreads are often a killer for speculating with physical gold because of the amount of price movement needed just to break even. You can get much better spreads in quantity from large dealers, but if you have to go through the mail that has a bunch of costs too.
You can also buy into gold accounts (like through kitco) that provide smaller spreads. I'm not sure what the spreads are. You don't take physical delivery, so you have to trust that they'll settle up.
If you're speculating with larger amounts, the best way I'm aware of is to use gold futures. Smaller "E-Mini" futures for 33.2 ounces of gold can be electronically traded through a discount broker. There are no costs associated with shipping, insurance, risk of theft, etc. The contracts are very widely traded and strictly regulated so you don't have to worry about losing your money (outside of being wrong, of course!)
Spreads of just a few dollars are easily obtainable. Commissions are as little as $2.40 each way. So your total round-trip cost might be something like $30, and that's for a contract worth about $10,000. Looked at another way, that's about a $1 spread per ounce of gold. Physical dealers simply can't compete with that.
In addition, futures are highly leveraged, so you only need to deposit a fraction of that $10,000 (insert disclaimers about using leverage here).
Perhaps most interesting, you can bet in either direction with equal ease. There are no restrictions on short-selling as there are with stock.
[ EDITED: I'm not sure I have the spreads right, I'll check tomorrow when the exchanges are open. ]
I don't assert that gold is a good long-term wealth grower -- just a protector. You are mixing apples and oranges. The rare individuals you are talking about in regard to short-term stock playing need to be compared to long-term guys who buy regularly and dollar cost average into diversified high-quality issues over a 10-20 year comparison. In any case, one would buy gold for the long term, in my opinion, to protect wealth and have it as a diversfier (with some growth potential of course) in a balanced portfolio.
Timing the financial markets and doing short-term gambles is fine, just extra risky which is why the individuals you describe are rare. My point is gold is no different, and you will find, I believe, a similar statistical breakdown of those who try to make money timing the gold market as you would have those who tried with stocks -- consistently trying to make profits over a long period of time.
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Stocks? Thought we were talking about gold. You're the one making fruit punch here.
You can make money trading gold (with risk, of course). You can't make money holding it long-term. At least according to history. The future, who knows. If you think there's long-term growth appreciation -- which is required to really protect wealth (i.e. keep up with inflation) -- go for it.
Long-term growth protection in the sense that an ounce of gold has held its general value over the centuries -- as they say, an ounce of gold would get you a good suit 200 years ago, as well as today. Not that things can't change, but if one goes by historical track records, as they do when confidently investing in anything for the long-term, then we have to appreciate gold for its safety record -- the other "unreported and private" safety vehicles, like cash, have come and gone (especially when not backed by silver or gold).
It's why gold has been, and is still, used to quietly pass on wealth.
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Gold's track record in this century off the gold standard and to the point of manipulation by the central banks and Fed is very brief, maybe 6-10 years. During that period it did very well. Now that the Fed and banks are losing their stranglehold on gold the situation is entirely different. Forget the contrived pattern of the past 20 years during the great credit boom. This is unchartered territory and history cannot really help us. To keep on saying gold has a poor long term track record, I think you're right. It's a "short" term play much like it was from '74-'80.
I also agree with Supercoin that a large number of major market moves (pick any market) can be picked up by Technical Analysis. This is tracking the long term momentum of the market. The Elliot Wave guys have taken this to an art form. And with tools like this you can put the odds more in your favor compared to 99% of the rest of the buyers who truly are just wishing......and hoping........
1) gold price ( I have heard it has a 23-25 year cycle) and
2) DJIA / gold price ( I have heard it has a 30-33 year cycle)
If what I have heard is correct, we should be near a peak/valley soon (now or within 2 years). What is going to happen the first of March when we go to war in IRAQ?
Many of us here are capable of affecting the gold market. I can make it drop like a rock. All i have to do is buy some.
In all sincerity, i don't play the margined metals game anymore.....it is too distracting from what is really important (family, earning a living, chasing beautiful coins).
<< <i>MrKelso, yes it is a Desert Eagle 50 caliber Auto Express. >>
I thought so. I had one all black in 45 years ago. They are nice but a little to big for my fat hands. Beside if someone is going to come in and steal my coins i want to give him a chance. Thats why i have a Ruger 6 shot GP-100 loaded on the side of my bed. Wheel guns are cool. If that doesn't work then i will let the perp get half way out the door or window with my stuff then open up with 12 ga OO buck shot Winchester Defender. But first i will yell hault and have him turn around and see if he is armed..... If the Dogs let me
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
Comments
very good reading materials. I like that Sinclair.
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
By the way Greg, I think Im due a little credit for having been right so far! I know your Mean and Evil, but maybe you can stand up and be a man, even if it kills you!
I think you "Weathered" coin collectors have had the best method, over time that I've seen and that is buying High quality numismatics at a fair price and holding them. These rare coins will increase in value a a much better rate than will bullion.
If you really think that gold is going to the moon over the next 6 months, then buy options. If you think gold is really going down, then buy puts. Its a hell of a lot cheaper ris than buyin bullion.
For the record, just like stocks and everything else...I don't know which direction any of it is going.
I do know this, those of you who steadily bought $20 St Gaudens high quality coins over the past 30 years have an opportunity to be really rich.
Dan
He alludes to the fact that none of the Elliot Wavers have taken him up on his offer. Maybe you can be the first to do so! Maybe Sinclair has his bet hedged too! I'm sure the guy has Price Waterhouse or someone similar ready to handle the escrow account.
I thought of a wager than sounds interesting. I'd bet that on 12/31
2003 at midnight, the DOW will be lower than it is today, and gold will be higher. That's 2 things that must occur. The opposite bet would be that the DOW will be higher and gold will be lower. If both don't occur, you don't win. Supercoin, wouldn't this be an interesting bet? It favors anyone looking for a stock recovery this year (and its corollary that gold will get beat back down due to stock bullishness).
Silver could be a much better play than gold as someone just mentioned. The historical ratios used to be much much lower. Even during the peak in 1980 the ratio was 18:1. Today it's 74:1. Should
the silver bulls be right that there is very limited silver actually left, silver will boom. The US has depleted its stockpile and the now the Mint has to go out to buy material for its silver eagles. Everyone has thought silver was crap for the last 22 years. Just like clad coinage. After years of abuse there just may not be much left to satisfy a marked increase in demand.
roadrunner
So far I have not had one taker from the loyal Elliott Wave counters on my offer of a $100,000 wager that gold will close above $400 in 2003. I am absolutely serious. If you believe that Elliott Wave Analysis guarantees you gold at $200 before it sees $401, please take my money.
It's not clear if the bet is strictly that gold closes above $400 (or not), or if he's trying to weasel out with that last sentence. If it's the former, I think it's probably a dumb bet on his part, but I'd have to explore some options pricing to see if it's dumb enough to make me money.
I find it a little humorous that he apparently disparages Elliot Waver technical analysis when he is talking cups and saucers and breakouts with this graph. All that's missing is a lump of sugar.
I think Sinclair's bet is pretty simple. Gold closes at $400 an ounce. I haven't followed all the Elliot Wave disciples to recall how they came to the $200 gold conclusion. But from reading Sinclair's comments over the past 6 months he follows logical methods of Technical Analysis. In fact he's about called everything right so far this year. Since he is also calling for a swift gold spike next week above the $354 resistance level, you can disparage him here when he's proven wrong.......or commend him for calling it right.
roadrunner
WSM, stop the bull sh*t. You're telling me that these gold funds know what their deposits will be when gold hits certain levels that haven't been hit in decades. Some people here might believe you, but not the smart ones.
You have no clue as to the inflows at these levels. The gold funds themselves don't have any idea. The numbers you provided were not only completely pulled out of your ass, but they were laughable. $700 million a day at $650/ounce. $182 billion a year.
$8 million a day ($2+ billion a year) when gold is at the $425-$450 range. Tell us "Wall Street Man", how many gold funds have assets anywhere near $2 billion?
Enough said, Its time to put your money where your mouth is! Im getting the idea you think were headed back to $300, I have $100 that says we hit $400 first!
I do think we will see $300 before $400. If we hit $400, I'm sure we'll have a bunch of ostriches (you leading the way) screaming that $500/$600/$7 trillion is next.
As for putting my money where my mouth is, you seemed to have missed the whole point of this thread. Not surprising that of all the people to miss it, it would be you.
I *invest* in what I know.
Roadrunner, when the Gregs of the world are no longer talking doom and gloom, its time to get out! Your $395 is probably not too far off, $420 has always been a major hurdle! Remember, you can sell the same way you buy, pieces at a time!
No, no, no. Gold is going to $7,000,000,000,000,000,000 an ounce. When these gold funds start getting $23 trillion a day in deposits, they will have to buy more gold, driving the price up. I have a few small gold items that will be worth more than Bill Gates once this happens!
By the way Greg, I think Im due a little credit for having been right so far! I know your Mean and Evil, but maybe you can stand up and be a man, even if it kills you!
Are you f***ing insane? You've yet to be right a single time about anything as long back as I can remember. You make baseless statements, blindly support what you like as if it were god, and ignore facts and reason and you are now claiming to be right? You're a true piece of work.
roadrunner
clueless gold amateur
<< <i>I rest my case! >>
Well, at least you admit you're full of sh*t.
honi soit qui mal y pense
gold - the barbarous relic!
Camelot
4-day track record, huh?
But, the reason I think the guy's bet is dumb is not because I think his prediction is wrong (I don't know), but because he's putting a big bet on a specific price. If I took his bet, I think I may be able to buy some options for say $50K that would be worth over $100K if gold hits $400. So if it hits that price, I cash my options, pay him off, and bank a small profit. If it doesn't, my $50K options expire worthless but he pays me $100K and I bank $50K. But... if gold doesn't hit his price it may be he's losing his shirt on other bets and not in the mood to pay me off. I'm not sure he could find an escrow account to be his bookie. Unless maybe he lives in Nevada.
Personally I don't know or currently care either way on the gold market. It's pretty obvious to me that it's been a terrible long-term investment, but as a short-term trading vehicle there may be some interesting opportunities.
I'm not sure I'll jump in, but if I do, it will probably be to short-sell it if attracts enough attention where ma & pa American are buying into it. Which might happen, as other investments aren't looking very good right now and the world is a scary place. But I don't feel confident enough of that to buy in anticipation. Easier to wait and see if mania does hit a fever pitch, and if it does... wait for it to break and ride it down.
I know little about the gold market, but... mania is mania. Will be interesting to see if it happens.
I would avoid gold right now unless I could short it
Just my 2-1/2 cents...
Dave
<< <i>Supercoin, how about me and you buy some savings bonds together instead of gold? Heh. >>
Hey i remember those . On mondays i would buy a stamp and put it in a book at school. When the book was full i would turn it in for a savings bond.
I wonder what the books from the early 50's with stamps in them are worth?
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
a gold wedding ring some 35 years ago. Never have I regretted that investment.
Camelot
Its a rotten job but somebody has to do it.
<< <i>The only good investment in gold I ever made , was when I got Mrs Bear
a gold wedding ring some 35 years ago. Never have I regretted that investment. >>
Your a Good Man bear. Many people crave what you have my friend. I Salute you.
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
Supercoin, read a little more on Sinclair's background. He was a major player in the '77-'80 gold and silver market. He claims to have sold his major stake in physical gold on the very day in 1980 that it peaked. Some blamed his selling ultimately responsible for dumping the gold market. He then "retired" from physical gold trading once he realized that the Fed's long term plan was anti-gold. He then founded his own gold exploration company. As far as I know he only reappeared publically in the last year or two proclaiming a new bull market in gold emerging. I have to say that this is a fairly good track record. There are probably very few people in the world with his knowledge of tangible markets and futures/derivative trading. He claims to have written some of the logic behind the very programs that drive gold derivative trading. He's sticking his neck out and making weekly and sometimes daily calls that others aren't.
I'll listen to what he has to say before the "clueless amateurs" on the Forum.
roadrunner
clueless amateur
There are probably 9,999 other gold guru wannabes who have been terribly wrong.
So, is this guy truly an exception, or did he just get lucky? Honestly, I really don't know, haven't looked into it, and really don't have any incentive to do so.
But, the danger of following a guru is that if you don't make the decision for yourself, you are at the guru's mercy. And if it turns out he's just lucky... down you go with him.
The reason why I feel strongly about this is that some years ago I lost a substantial amount of money following the advice of a stock market guru who had made a couple of legendary market calls. Turned out they were just lucky. In retrospect, I was incredibly stupid, and it's not a mistake I'll make again.
In the stock market at least, many gurus have come and gone. By the laws of chance, some are going to look like geniuses from time to time.
No one knows, and many people who push for claims that support it going one way or the other have some sort of financial interest in doing so. I know this, because gold is one of those investments that can change or continue direction over a myriad of reasons, at any time, for any length of time. To suggest knowing otherwise, is as ridiculous as claiming in 1999 that you know where Lucent's stock, interest rates, and real estate would be in 2002.
gurus making the same calls in different ways. I'm sure that Sinclair is a major holder of gold right now. He would like nothing better than to see gold become a major player in the LONG TERM. If that doesn't happen, I'm sure he'll be happy with short term wins.
He is urging fellow gold disciples to go out and buy a $33,000 - 100 oz. Comex contract with physical delivery. I'm not going to be doing that anytime soon...guru or not. Nice Saints and Libs are about my speed.
I too once took the advice of a BU Washington quarter guru in the mid 1970's. He said they were going to "triple." I proceeded to go out and stock up on early dates in choice BU. I might ad that he was right too! It just took 25 years for it to happen.
roadrunner
FF, just so nobody thinks I'm agreeing with you across the board...
Certainly it's not easy, but you also don't have to be perfectly right to make money if you combine your predictions with sound money management.
The gold markets seem to me to be more difficult than others to predict due to all the geopolitical influences, central banks, and the fact that nobody really needs the stuff... but nonetheless I'm sure there are gold traders out there who make a good living doing just that.
Even "successful" long-term gold investors probably still need to get in line behind Granny and her passbook savings account.
I've never seen anything (other than hype) to indicate gold has ever been a good long-term investment. A disaster hedge, maybe (though a poor one compared to a stockpile of baked beans and a gun). A good instrument for short-term speculation or trading, maybe (but there are long dry spells of very little price movement).
I don't neccesarily disagree with this trick but the other day while paying a visit to my local area coin shop and I said to Don, "what are you buying gold at these days?" (remind you, I've never have sold gold before but have bought it) So Don says. "I'm buying gold at $350 and selling at $380." Well this put a damper on my get rich quick scheme since now I have this $30 spread to worry about. So gold will need to drop back to $320 before I can buy that same ounce of gold I sold at $350. Does anyone feel my pain?
Are there buyers with less spreads out there? I wantto buy at $320 and sell at $350 or whatever. This percent increase sounds like I'm paying the dealers taxes.
I also asked Don how high will he buy gold and he said as long as I can blow it out of here, I'm buying.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
You can also buy into gold accounts (like through kitco) that provide smaller spreads. I'm not sure what the spreads are. You don't take physical delivery, so you have to trust that they'll settle up.
If you're speculating with larger amounts, the best way I'm aware of is to use gold futures. Smaller "E-Mini" futures for 33.2 ounces of gold can be electronically traded through a discount broker. There are no costs associated with shipping, insurance, risk of theft, etc. The contracts are very widely traded and strictly regulated so you don't have to worry about losing your money (outside of being wrong, of course!)
Spreads of just a few dollars are easily obtainable. Commissions are as little as $2.40 each way. So your total round-trip cost might be something like $30, and that's for a contract worth about $10,000. Looked at another way, that's about a $1 spread per ounce of gold. Physical dealers simply can't compete with that.
In addition, futures are highly leveraged, so you only need to deposit a fraction of that $10,000 (insert disclaimers about using leverage here).
Perhaps most interesting, you can bet in either direction with equal ease. There are no restrictions on short-selling as there are with stock.
[ EDITED: I'm not sure I have the spreads right, I'll check tomorrow when the exchanges are open. ]
Timing the financial markets and doing short-term gambles is fine, just extra risky which is why the individuals you describe are rare. My point is gold is no different, and you will find, I believe, a similar statistical breakdown of those who try to make money timing the gold market as you would have those who tried with stocks -- consistently trying to make profits over a long period of time.
You can make money trading gold (with risk, of course). You can't make money holding it long-term. At least according to history. The future, who knows. If you think there's long-term growth appreciation -- which is required to really protect wealth (i.e. keep up with inflation) -- go for it.
It's why gold has been, and is still, used to quietly pass on wealth.
(I'm not a gold guru - but I am very much enjoying the ride)
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
during the great credit boom. This is unchartered territory and history cannot really help us. To keep on saying gold has a poor long term track record, I think you're right. It's a "short" term play much like it was from '74-'80.
I also agree with Supercoin that a large number of major market
moves (pick any market) can be picked up by Technical Analysis. This is tracking the long term momentum of the market. The Elliot Wave guys have taken this to an art form. And with tools like this you can put the odds more in your favor compared to 99% of the rest of the buyers who truly are just wishing......and hoping........
roadrunner
compared to 99% of the rest of the buyers who truly are just wishing......and hoping........
That would be me.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>
<< <i>Bear, How abou a gold handgun with silver bullets?
Like this?
Is that a Desert Eagle?
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
1) gold price ( I have heard it has a 23-25 year cycle) and
2) DJIA / gold price ( I have heard it has a 30-33 year cycle)
If what I have heard is correct, we should be near a peak/valley soon (now or within 2 years).
What is going to happen the first of March when we go to war in IRAQ?
In all sincerity, i don't play the margined metals game anymore.....it is too distracting from what is really important (family, earning a living, chasing beautiful coins).
adrian
honi soit qui mal y pense
gold - the barbarous relic!
<< <i>MrKelso, yes it is a Desert Eagle 50 caliber Auto Express. >>
I thought so. I had one all black in 45 years ago. They are nice but a little to big for my fat hands.
Beside if someone is going to come in and steal my coins i want to give him a chance. Thats why i have a Ruger 6 shot GP-100 loaded on the side of my bed. Wheel guns are cool.
If that doesn't work then i will let the perp get half way out the door or window with my stuff then open up with 12 ga OO buck shot Winchester Defender.
But first i will yell hault and have him turn around and see if he is armed..... If the Dogs let me
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."