I think he might be right on with his observations. The only thought I would add is that prior bull markets were also helped by inflationary pressures, something that we don't seem to currently have. Collectibles seem to love inflation.
But what we have now that was non-existant in the prior bull markets is the advent of slab grading, which has added stability and confidence in the marketplace. That is a big +. I'm bullish.
Some refer to overgraded slabs as Coffins. I like to think of them as Happy Coins.
While I agree that the is currently very strong....And that there are certainly no inflationary pressures right now.....Davids comment,
"For the 30 days or so following the September 11 national tragedy, the rare coin market was at a standstill. No one was buying coins and the phones weren't ringing. But starting in November of last year, buyer demand picked up tremendously."
while true is a bit misleading....Whenever investors "pull" from the stock market the money still (and will) be reinvested someplace else.
CD's are a joke paying what....3.5% average? The smart money went into real estate (and in my opinion still is).
All kidding aside...what is there for the passive investor to go into? If you believe all the hype it's metals~!
And of course that's going to parlay over into the coin market IMHO.
As long as we fear turmoil that's the way it's going to be...that's it and that's that.
But in my opinion once (and when) things calm down we will enter a period of inflationary pressures (albeit a few years away) that will boost the dollar and cause an entry point back to the market, hence causing the "casual investor' in coins" to sell to go back to the market.
Prime rate is at what...4.25? That's what your average retired Joe has to pull out per year at a minimum to keep up with his retirement bills, but the banks only paying 2%.......And the stock market......lets not go there.
That said.... I agree with Adrian......that the coin market is currently very strong.
But in my opinion it's a short run.....18 months tops.
I believe his basic thought of we are in a bull market for coins is correct. It seems to be fueled by new collectors and people wanting upper end slabbed coins. The unslabbed coins are selling a discount at the shows I have seen. People always want quality so buy the best coin you can afford right now and reap the rewards in a few years.
Having lived thru the more speculative bull markets of the 70s and 80s, I feel this market is much more broad-based and driven by solid collector demand. It reminds me more of the early 1960s than the 70s and 80s...BU roll and proof set speculation of the 60s aside...in the 1960s, people actually collected coins for the joy of collecting. This current coin collecting boom could last for quite a few years.
It looks like I'm going to be the one to throw the ice water on this thread.
How is the coin market? It depends on what you collect.
If you're trying to build a registry set, yes, it's true across the board that the market is very strong. If you want the finest slabbed coin known, or close to it, yes, the market is strong. Ditto re Washington Quarters and Bust Dollars. High grade Seated Dollars have always been strong.
That being said, look at other Unc. 19th Century Type. I've never seen Barber material in MS & PF 65 so inexpensive. Ditto re MS 65 & 6 FH SLQs. The market for 5 & 6 non FH SLQs has been dead, dead, dead for years. Seated Dimes in 5 & 6 are as cheap as I've ever seen them, and ditto for No Motto Seated Quarters in these grades.
MS 65 Braided and Matron Head Large Cents in all colors have been soft for at least the last two years. Even the popular CC Morgans in all grades of Unc. have dropped in price.
If you have any of the coins mentioned in the two preceding paragraphs, you don't need me to remind you that they have lost value in the last year.
Mr. Hall is an incredibly gifted man in the area of marketing, and he has used his talent to do very well over the years. I applaud his success. In fact, if he did not conceive of having a third party grading service (PCGS) certify coins, I probably would not have gotten back into the hobby (I remember the "bad old days" all too well). At the same time, I don't believe he's going to announce when he thinks the market is in the tank, or focus on areas that are hurting.
To conclude, I sincerely believe that your outlook on the coin market depends on what you collect.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>It looks like I'm going to be the one to throw the ice water on this thread............How is the coin market? It depends on what you collect. If you're trying to build a registry set, yes, it's true across the board that the market is very strong. ......................If you have any of the coins mentioned in the two preceding paragraphs, you don't need me to remind you that they have lost value in the last year. >>
You got it all wrong!!!
Your statement is only more evidence that this very warm coin market is going to self sustain its growth until ALL AREAS GET HOT THEN.............THE FUTURE BOOM MARKET WILL BURN ITSELF OUT.
The coin market with many areas of strength and enough areas of bargains will just sustain the growth for YEARS to come.
A strong coin market needs areas of weaknesses (and bargains) to keep the coin collectors happy and buying as well. Once the bargains fade in a boom market is what to really be concerned about!!!!!
But I really think that the current market is also being fueled in large part due to the "State Quarter babies".
You really have to take that number into consideration......I know, I'm one of them (used to collect as a kid but got back into it).
I haven't run the numbers for the "before" and "after" but I'm sure there will be some type of correlation.
Many people find many hobbies..(I collect toasters too!) but after a while become either bored with them or in many cases when the prices stagnate for a time decide to look for greener pastures...Look how many threads on here have to do with "what's it worth".
While I do believe in your assesment I just disagree on the timeline..... 18 months tops.
This new market is not only broad based demographically, but is broad based by the denominations and the grades people are collecting. And it's broad based by the financial resources of the participants. So far most of the activity has been in 20th century coins because these are the coins that newer col- lectors are familiar with. The states program is bringing many of these people into the hobby or back to the hobby. This will not end soon. Indeed as the older issues begin showing wear and the obsolete eagle reverse coins become increasing difficult to find there is likely to be even more interest and more people investigating the older coins. Obviously the state of the hobby is tied to some degree with the overall economy, but the market is poised for years of growth. There is little doubt that this growth will envelope all of numismatics and exonumismatics eventually.
With no disrespect intended, I believe it is you who are mistaken. Time will tell. Unc. 19th Century type, excepting Bust, Seated, and Trade Dollars has lost value for the last three years.
Vigorous promotion of high end moderns and registry set material account for virtually all increased values in the market over the last few years, excepting the coins mentioned in the preceding paragraph. While I wish everyone here much enjoyment in our hobby, my primary focus is on Unc. 19th Century type, which is what I collect.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
With no disrespect intended, I believe it is you who are mistaken. Time will tell. Unc. 19th Century type, excepting Bust, Seated, and Trade Dollars has lost value for the last three years.
Vigorous promotion of high end moderns and registry set material account for virtually all increased values in the market over the last few years, excepting the coins mentioned in the preceding paragraph. While I wish everyone here much enjoyment in our hobby, my primary focus is on Unc. 19th Century type, which is what I collect. >>
It really depends on the specific coin. Saying type has gotten softer is not exactly true. Type coins with above average eye appeal are way up from three years ago.
for me in my opinion based on what i see there will be many huge downward price corrections in many series/types of coins late 2003 early 2004 or thereabouts
Elcontador: I don't follow your point. I do indeed agree that a number of areas in 19th century coinage has in fact gone down in the past three years, particularly in MS63 to MS65 mint state and PR63 to PR65 ranges but it seems that most lower and higher grades to the contrary have done quite decently in the same three year time frame. <p> My point is that the warm market in well over 60% of the spectrum of the market will continue to do so BECAUSE there are just enough areas of weaknesses currently to keep the collectors interested in the hobby and the hunt of pursuing coins.
You are trying to tell me something about liberty seated coinage?
I have been a fairly active buyer of 19th century seated coinage myself in all grades in the past three years indeed because of precisely what you state to be the case. Ask Legend Numismatics, Koin Kollector, Lordmarcovan and Michael and they will tell you what I have been up to in the last three years particularly in pursuit of some of their nice liberty seated coinage!!!!!!!
Such 19th century coinage as well as more areas of the coin hobby is going to be the strong beneficiary as the strong market in 20th century coins matures and spreads to such 19th century coinage., while some areas of 20th century coinage will take a breather from price increases with some notable exceptions as indicated below.......
In fact, in my belief, you have seen nothing in terms of increases as of yet in the walking liberty half dollars......what I predict will happen to walkers in the next three years will astound and confound you. The recent sale of the 1934 walker in NGC MS-67 on ebay is only a taste of what the future will hold.
I suspect that Lordmarcovan will even admit to you that the complete 19th century seated liberty type set that Lord sold to me has in fact gone up a little bit since I acquired it from him since a year or so ago?
<< <i>With no disrespect intended, I believe it is you who are mistaken. Time will tell. Unc. 19th Century type, excepting Bust, Seated, and Trade Dollars has lost value for the last three years. >>
Lets analyze that (no pun intended........
half dimes: there are no coinage in 19th cnetury other than bust and seated liberty dimes, quarters, halves: only 1892-1900 barber dimes fit your description dollars: only 1878-1900 Morgan dollars fit your desccription gold: can fit your description after the early/mid 19th century but hasn't gold has suddernly turned hot increasing prices to the HIGHEST point in nearly three years?
So taking apart your statement you are really saying that unc. early barber and Morgan silver dollars and three centers and not much else fit your description of prices going down...........that represents less than 10% of the 19th century coin market????????????????????/
Oh yes,,,,,,the minor coinage of the 19th century.......
large and small cents........certainly has NOT gone down in the last three years in any unc. grades
nickels: shield weaker indeed liberty head nickels certainly NOT weaker and in fact has become nearly impossible to locate in nice mint state 64 and above and now even in nuice 63 and above......
half cent in uncs.....certainly NOT weaker........
patterns......quite stable the last three years.....probably the most stable in the last 20 years of pattern coinage........
So once again only 1 out of 6 areas (17%) in 19th century coinage fits your description......you are only giving me more documentation of a warm coin market.
All of the above mentioned does NOT mean that I do not believe some of the areas of 20th century coinage will not come crashing down in the next few years........in fact some areas already have!!!!!!!!!
But yet other areas of 20th century coinage will go on and up even more.
Look at the DE, PA, NJ, GA, uncirculated rolls, bag prices in the last two years!!!!!!! They have come way down from the last 2000 highs............yet at the very same time the silver proofs of the very same issues, practically ignored two years ago are very much on fire!! Now, I can't say I understand all of the comings and going and ups and downs but this sort of thing has been going on for the past 40 years in the coin market........
Thanks for taking the time to articulately state your case. I can't comment on gold, as I don't collect it. Most of what I collect is MS 63 to MS 65 Type.
Matron and Braided Hair Large cents in all grades of Unc. have dropped in price ever since the Frankenfield collection was sold two years ago, by roughly 10%. If you have old grey sheets, compare them to now.
Classic and Braided Half cents in all grades of Unc. have for the most part been steady.
The market for them (the afore-mentioned series in Half and Large Cents) in RD has also gone nowhere, with the exception of individual coins with exceptional eye appeal (because many of these coins in RD holders are not attractive and / or not really 95% RD).
I know less than nothing about moderns, and I do not collect pattern coins, so I can't comment on them.
As a collector of Seated Coinage, you have taken advantage of the softness in this series (less so re the Halves). A decent Seated Dime in 5 would run you $1100 to $1200 a year or so ago; not any more. Even N/M Seated Quarters in 5 have dropped 10% in this time.
My definition of 19th Century type includes Barber Coinage and Liberty Nickels. I don't think you'd disagree with me re the Barber coinage. The only real move re Liberty Nickels has been in MS 6 and better and PF 7 and better. The other grade Unc. and proof coins for the most part have lost value in MS & PF 63-5. The reason is that most of them are really ugly coins (even moreso re Shield Nickels). Again, if you find an exceptional coin for the grade re its eye appeal, yes, that will bring more money than it did two years ago.
Morgan $s are probably the most widely collected series. I think the common date CC $s in 5 have dropped 20% in greysheet pricing over the last 3 years.
I don't think I can address the market for Draped Bust material, as the market for these coins is so thin, I don't believe any meaningful analysis can be done. Ditto re Classic Large Cents.
Feel free to comment; I like an articulate exchange of ideas!
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
Morgan $s are probably the most widely collected series. I think the common date CC $s in 5 have dropped 20% in greysheet pricing over the last 3 years.
I have not done any research but I'm pretty sure that cc's in just about all grades are up from 3 years ago. Anyone know for sure??
At the heart of collecting anything other than free junk is the concern about whether a collector such as myself or Elcontador is paying too much for a coin or getting a good deal.
We are NOT talking about investing.You too have it all wrong.
ANYTIME a coin collector takes a coin out of circulation he has to make a decision whether it is worthwhile to keep the coin or spend it. Only the coins that a kid keeps and does not spend are done for two reasons: (1) the coin fits his needs and/or (2) the coin is worthwhile to keep as a collectible from a monetary point of view....that is investing as well!
Many but not all collectors like bargains.....they look for areas in the coins that appear to be the bargain as opposed to the full priced item. They also worry that certain coins are rising in prices so they try to buy more coins in the series that they are collecting before the prices gets out of reach for their pocketbook. Still others buy multiples of that coin to invest and make a profit only so they can sell them off at a hopeful profit so that they can get what they really wanted such as the coin of their dreams.
Prices are very much ingrained in the hobby and deservedly so since no collector wants to buy the coin for $100 today and watch it stay at $100 for the next 10 years when they could have bought the other $101 coin that they also wanted just as much instead go to $1000 10 years later. The guessing game of what coins to buy FIRST for your collection and what coins to wait until later to buy is very much at the heart of collecting!!!!!
This is NOT about investing.....it is about BUYING RIGHT and hopefully stretching your buying dollars!!
Looking for and seeking out bargain prices when buying food or clothes or even a home is the same thing....the satisfaction of buying right and getting the most for your money. Many people spend hours and days plotting on saving wherever they can. None of this is INVESTING either.
An educated collector is the best collector as such collector learns the history of coin prices and the background behind the prices. To fail to even discuss past and future prices is absurd.
oreville, if all the collectors are going through the thought process that you just descibed in your post, then I stand corrected.
However, all too often they are not buying based on your thought process and that's where a lot of "collectors" get burned.
The pepperdoodles incident clearly proves my point. Somone bought this coin at a premium with the hope and possibly "greed" that it was better than the slab based on a description even though it was clearly stated that this coin would not upgrade.
I agree that no one wants to overpay for anything but what usually happens is that when someone thinks they made a killing, it is they that have been killed.
As far as an educated collector is the best collector, says who? I think this statement again goes back to money. If collector1 buys a coin for $5. and collector2 buys a similar coin for $6. is collector1 a "better collector"? Some people would drive to 4 different shows to buy the $5 coin while I would buy the first $6 coin knowing full well that if I searched long enough that I could buy it for $5. It's just a matter of how you want to spend your time and/or money.
I will agree that the more you know, the more enjoyment you will get from your "hobby".
The pursuit of knowledge (including history, comraderie, coin strking, grading etc. and prices as well) is what this hobby is all about!!!
The best educated collector merely has a better chance in avoiding a disastrous mistake due to lack of knowledge.
Some collectors indeed go to five shows just to save $1 and spend $500 extra in travel and time but don't we all do that sometimes when we shop for food? That is a different animal...bragging rights and indeed it is a comical aspect of our flawed personalities. I try to watch that myself!!
However, hopefully, the travel to the different shows will help the collector in seing more things and experience more than if he were just to buy the first coin for $6?
Sure, I don't know what % of collectors think the way I do. But indeed it is interesting when the price of gold spikes up that suddenly many collectors gloat about how smart they were, nervous because they missed the boat, panic into buying gold when they never did before.......etc, etc. A study into this varying degrees of human psychology is fascinating.
By the way, I want to argue with and banter with Elcontador about the specific prices of Morgan silver dollars in that while CC dollar prices might be down, the GSA slabbed CC dollars are very strong price wise in the last three years and many of the scarcer dates such as the 1883-S and 1884-S and 1886-O are going very strong price wise in the last three years. That is not the interesting part......The interesting part is WHY certain dates items in Morgans for instance are strong in price while others are weak!!! This study and discussion and comparison of the issues helps me and others into scarcity and deamnd factors that may or may not be correct. All part of the pursuit of knowledge. Sure, it might lead a collector to determine that perhaps he should buy or sell a certain coin but at least he is trying to understand what is involved or at stake and hopefully enjoy and learn in the process.
Best to you and I enjoyed the chance to banter with the both of you!!
Vigorous promotion of high end moderns and registry set material account for virtually all increased values in the market over the last few years, excepting the coins mentioned in the preceding paragraph. While I wish everyone here much enjoyment in our hobby, my primary focus is on Unc. 19th Century type, which is what I collect. >>
Promotion can't be the sole reason for the growth in 20th century and modern coins be- cause very few of the old timers have gotten into these areas in the last couple years. Every indication is that these are new collectors and still not extremely sophisticated by the standards here. While many of th markets you mention may not be any higher there does seem to be a general firming across the board.
Comments
But what we have now that was non-existant in the prior bull markets is the advent of slab grading, which has added stability and confidence in the marketplace. That is a big +. I'm bullish.
adrian
I agree.
Brian.
"For the 30 days or so following the September 11 national tragedy, the rare coin market was at a standstill. No one was buying coins and the phones weren't ringing. But starting in November of last year, buyer demand picked up tremendously."
while true is a bit misleading....Whenever investors "pull" from the stock market the money still (and will) be reinvested someplace else.
CD's are a joke paying what....3.5% average? The smart money went into real estate (and in my opinion still is).
All kidding aside...what is there for the passive investor to go into? If you believe all the hype it's metals~!
And of course that's going to parlay over into the coin market IMHO.
As long as we fear turmoil that's the way it's going to be...that's it and that's that.
But in my opinion once (and when) things calm down we will enter a period of inflationary pressures (albeit a few years away) that will boost the dollar and cause an entry point back to the market, hence causing the "casual investor' in coins" to sell to go back to the market.
Prime rate is at what...4.25? That's what your average retired Joe has to pull out per year at a minimum to keep up with his retirement bills, but the banks only paying 2%.......And the stock market......lets not go there.
That said.... I agree with Adrian......that the coin market is currently very strong.
But in my opinion it's a short run.....18 months tops.
David
How is the coin market? It depends on what you collect.
If you're trying to build a registry set, yes, it's true across the board that the market is very strong. If you want the finest slabbed coin known, or close to it, yes, the market is strong. Ditto re Washington Quarters and Bust Dollars. High grade Seated Dollars have always been strong.
That being said, look at other Unc. 19th Century Type. I've never seen Barber material in MS & PF 65 so inexpensive. Ditto re MS 65 & 6 FH SLQs. The market for 5 & 6 non FH SLQs has been dead, dead, dead for years. Seated Dimes in 5 & 6 are as cheap as I've ever seen them, and ditto for No Motto Seated Quarters in these grades.
MS 65 Braided and Matron Head Large Cents in all colors have been soft for at least the last two years. Even the popular CC Morgans in all grades of Unc. have dropped in price.
If you have any of the coins mentioned in the two preceding paragraphs, you don't need me to remind you that they have lost value in the last year.
Mr. Hall is an incredibly gifted man in the area of marketing, and he has used his talent to do very well over the years. I applaud his success. In fact, if he did not conceive of having a third party grading service (PCGS) certify coins, I probably would not have gotten back into the hobby (I remember the "bad old days" all too well). At the same time, I don't believe he's going to announce when he thinks the market is in the tank, or focus on areas that are hurting.
To conclude, I sincerely believe that your outlook on the coin market depends on what you collect.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>It looks like I'm going to be the one to throw the ice water on this thread............How is the coin market? It depends on what you collect. If you're trying to build a registry set, yes, it's true across the board that the market is very strong. ......................If you have any of the coins mentioned in the two preceding paragraphs, you don't need me to remind you that they have lost value in the last year. >>
You got it all wrong!!!
Your statement is only more evidence that this very warm coin market is going to self sustain its growth until ALL AREAS GET HOT THEN.............THE FUTURE BOOM MARKET WILL BURN ITSELF OUT.
The coin market with many areas of strength and enough areas of bargains will just sustain the growth for YEARS to come.
A strong coin market needs areas of weaknesses (and bargains) to keep the coin collectors happy and buying as well. Once the bargains fade in a boom market is what to really be concerned about!!!!!
David, agree to a point.....
But I really think that the current market is also being fueled in large part due to the "State Quarter babies".
You really have to take that number into consideration......I know, I'm one of them (used to collect as a kid but got back into it).
I haven't run the numbers for the "before" and "after" but I'm sure there will be some type of correlation.
Many people find many hobbies..(I collect toasters too!) but after a while become either bored with them or in many cases when the prices stagnate for a time decide to look for greener pastures...Look how many threads on here have to do with "what's it worth".
While I do believe in your assesment I just disagree on the timeline..... 18 months tops.
and the grades people are collecting. And it's broad based by the financial resources of the participants.
So far most of the activity has been in 20th century coins because these are the coins that newer col-
lectors are familiar with. The states program is bringing many of these people into the hobby or back to
the hobby. This will not end soon. Indeed as the older issues begin showing wear and the obsolete
eagle reverse coins become increasing difficult to find there is likely to be even more interest and more
people investigating the older coins. Obviously the state of the hobby is tied to some degree with the
overall economy, but the market is poised for years of growth. There is little doubt that this growth will
envelope all of numismatics and exonumismatics eventually.
With no disrespect intended, I believe it is you who are mistaken. Time will tell.
Unc. 19th Century type, excepting Bust, Seated, and Trade Dollars has lost value
for the last three years.
Vigorous promotion of high end moderns and registry set material account for virtually
all increased values in the market over the last few years, excepting the coins mentioned
in the preceding paragraph. While I wish everyone here much enjoyment in our hobby,
my primary focus is on Unc. 19th Century type, which is what I collect.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>Oreville,
With no disrespect intended, I believe it is you who are mistaken. Time will tell.
Unc. 19th Century type, excepting Bust, Seated, and Trade Dollars has lost value
for the last three years.
Vigorous promotion of high end moderns and registry set material account for virtually
all increased values in the market over the last few years, excepting the coins mentioned
in the preceding paragraph. While I wish everyone here much enjoyment in our hobby,
my primary focus is on Unc. 19th Century type, which is what I collect. >>
Mike
sincerely michael
<p>
My point is that the warm market in well over 60% of the spectrum of the market will continue to do so BECAUSE there are just enough areas of weaknesses currently to keep the collectors interested in the hobby and the hunt of pursuing coins.
You are trying to tell me something about liberty seated coinage?
I have been a fairly active buyer of 19th century seated coinage myself in all grades in the past three years indeed because of precisely what you state to be the case. Ask Legend Numismatics, Koin Kollector, Lordmarcovan and Michael and they will tell you what I have been up to in the last three years particularly in pursuit of some of their nice liberty seated coinage!!!!!!!
Such 19th century coinage as well as more areas of the coin hobby is going to be the strong beneficiary as the strong market in 20th century coins matures and spreads to such 19th century coinage., while some areas of 20th century coinage will take a breather from price increases with some notable exceptions as indicated below.......
In fact, in my belief, you have seen nothing in terms of increases as of yet in the walking liberty half dollars......what I predict will happen to walkers in the next three years will astound and confound you. The recent sale of the 1934 walker in NGC MS-67 on ebay is only a taste of what the future will hold.
I suspect that Lordmarcovan will even admit to you that the complete 19th century seated liberty type set that Lord sold to me has in fact gone up a little bit since I acquired it from him since a year or so ago?
I just re-read what you just said!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YOUR QUOTE:
<< <i>With no disrespect intended, I believe it is you who are mistaken. Time will tell.
Unc. 19th Century type, excepting Bust, Seated, and Trade Dollars has lost value
for the last three years. >>
Lets analyze that
half dimes: there are no coinage in 19th cnetury other than bust and seated liberty
dimes, quarters, halves: only 1892-1900 barber dimes fit your description
dollars: only 1878-1900 Morgan dollars fit your desccription
gold: can fit your description after the early/mid 19th century but hasn't gold has suddernly turned hot increasing prices to the HIGHEST point in nearly three years?
So taking apart your statement you are really saying that unc. early barber and Morgan silver dollars and three centers and not much else fit your description of prices going down...........that represents less than 10% of the 19th century coin market????????????????????/
large and small cents........certainly has NOT gone down in the last three years in any unc. grades
nickels: shield weaker indeed liberty head nickels certainly NOT weaker and in fact has become nearly impossible to locate in nice mint state 64 and above and now even in nuice 63 and above......
half cent in uncs.....certainly NOT weaker........
patterns......quite stable the last three years.....probably the most stable in the last 20 years of pattern coinage........
So once again only 1 out of 6 areas (17%) in 19th century coinage fits your description......you are only giving me more documentation of a warm coin market.
But yet other areas of 20th century coinage will go on and up even more.
Look at the DE, PA, NJ, GA, uncirculated rolls, bag prices in the last two years!!!!!!! They have come way down from the last 2000 highs............yet at the very same time the silver proofs of the very same issues, practically ignored two years ago are very much on fire!! Now, I can't say I understand all of the comings and going and ups and downs but this sort of thing has been going on for the past 40 years in the coin market........
Thanks for taking the time to articulately state your case. I can't comment on gold, as
I don't collect it. Most of what I collect is MS 63 to MS 65 Type.
Matron and Braided Hair Large cents in all grades of Unc. have dropped in price ever since
the Frankenfield collection was sold two years ago, by roughly 10%.
If you have old grey sheets, compare them to now.
Classic and Braided Half cents in all grades of Unc. have for the most part been steady.
The market for them (the afore-mentioned series in Half and Large Cents) in RD has also
gone nowhere, with the exception of individual coins with exceptional eye appeal (because
many of these coins in RD holders are not attractive and / or not really 95% RD).
I know less than nothing about moderns, and I do not collect pattern coins, so I can't
comment on them.
As a collector of Seated Coinage, you have taken advantage of the softness in this series
(less so re the Halves). A decent Seated Dime in 5 would run you $1100 to $1200 a year
or so ago; not any more. Even N/M Seated Quarters in 5 have dropped 10% in this time.
My definition of 19th Century type includes Barber Coinage and Liberty Nickels. I don't
think you'd disagree with me re the Barber coinage. The only real move re Liberty
Nickels has been in MS 6 and better and PF 7 and better. The other grade Unc. and
proof coins for the most part have lost value in MS & PF 63-5. The reason is that
most of them are really ugly coins (even moreso re Shield Nickels). Again, if you find an
exceptional coin for the grade re its eye appeal, yes, that will bring more money than it
did two years ago.
Morgan $s are probably the most widely collected series. I think the common date CC
$s in 5 have dropped 20% in greysheet pricing over the last 3 years.
I don't think I can address the market for Draped Bust material, as the market for these
coins is so thin, I don't believe any meaningful analysis can be done. Ditto re Classic
Large Cents.
Feel free to comment; I like an articulate exchange of ideas!
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Investing maybe, but not collecting. Again, as has been stated in numerous threads, this is a hobby and for the most part not an investment vehicle.
I have no doubt that some will do very well, but the multitude will not fare well if they try to guess in what to "invest".
Again with all due respect and this is not a personal attack, but I believe it is this "investing" that created the pepperdoodles problem.
IMHO. Joe.
Morgan $s are probably the most widely collected series. I think the common date CC
$s in 5 have dropped 20% in greysheet pricing over the last 3 years.
I have not done any research but I'm pretty sure that cc's in just about all grades are up from 3 years ago. Anyone know for sure??
Mike
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
At the heart of collecting anything other than free junk is the concern about whether a collector such as myself or Elcontador is paying too much for a coin or getting a good deal.
We are NOT talking about investing.You too have it all wrong.
ANYTIME a coin collector takes a coin out of circulation he has to make a decision whether it is worthwhile to keep the coin or spend it. Only the coins that a kid keeps and does not spend are done for two reasons: (1) the coin fits his needs and/or (2) the coin is worthwhile to keep as a collectible from a monetary point of view....that is investing as well!
Many but not all collectors like bargains.....they look for areas in the coins that appear to be the bargain as opposed to the full priced item. They also worry that certain coins are rising in prices so they try to buy more coins in the series that they are collecting before the prices gets out of reach for their pocketbook. Still others buy multiples of that coin to invest and make a profit only so they can sell them off at a hopeful profit so that they can get what they really wanted such as the coin of their dreams.
Prices are very much ingrained in the hobby and deservedly so since no collector wants to buy the coin for $100 today and watch it stay at $100 for the next 10 years when they could have bought the other $101 coin that they also wanted just as much instead go to $1000 10 years later. The guessing game of what coins to buy FIRST for your collection and what coins to wait until later to buy is very much at the heart of collecting!!!!!
This is NOT about investing.....it is about BUYING RIGHT and hopefully stretching your buying dollars!!
Looking for and seeking out bargain prices when buying food or clothes or even a home is the same thing....the satisfaction of buying right and getting the most for your money. Many people spend hours and days plotting on saving wherever they can. None of this is INVESTING either.
An educated collector is the best collector as such collector learns the history of coin prices and the background behind the prices. To fail to even discuss past and future prices is absurd.
However, all too often they are not buying based on your thought process and that's where a lot of "collectors" get burned.
The pepperdoodles incident clearly proves my point. Somone bought this coin at a premium with the hope and possibly "greed" that it was better than the slab based on a description
I agree that no one wants to overpay for anything but what usually happens is that when someone thinks they made a killing, it is they that have been killed.
As far as an educated collector is the best collector, says who? I think this statement again goes back to money. If collector1 buys a coin for $5. and collector2 buys a similar coin for $6. is collector1 a "better collector"? Some people would drive to 4 different shows to buy the $5 coin while I would buy the first $6 coin knowing full well that if I searched long enough that I could buy it for $5. It's just a matter of how you want to spend your time and/or money.
I will agree that the more you know, the more enjoyment you will get from your "hobby".
IMO. Joe.
The pursuit of knowledge (including history, comraderie, coin strking, grading etc. and prices as well) is what this hobby is all about!!!
The best educated collector merely has a better chance in avoiding a disastrous mistake due to lack of knowledge.
Some collectors indeed go to five shows just to save $1 and spend $500 extra in travel and time but don't we all do that sometimes when we shop for food? That is a different animal...bragging rights and indeed it is a comical aspect of our flawed personalities. I try to watch that myself!!
However, hopefully, the travel to the different shows will help the collector in seing more things and experience more than if he were just to buy the first coin for $6?
Sure, I don't know what % of collectors think the way I do. But indeed it is interesting when the price of gold spikes up that suddenly many collectors gloat about how smart they were, nervous because they missed the boat, panic into buying gold when they never did before.......etc, etc. A study into this varying degrees of human psychology is fascinating.
By the way, I want to argue with and banter with Elcontador about the specific prices of Morgan silver dollars in that while CC dollar prices might be down, the GSA slabbed CC dollars are very strong price wise in the last three years and many of the scarcer dates such as the 1883-S and 1884-S and 1886-O are going very strong price wise in the last three years. That is not the interesting part......The interesting part is WHY certain dates items in Morgans for instance are strong in price while others are weak!!! This study and discussion and comparison of the issues helps me and others into scarcity and deamnd factors that may or may not be correct. All part of the pursuit of knowledge. Sure, it might lead a collector to determine that perhaps he should buy or sell a certain coin but at least he is trying to understand what is involved or at stake and hopefully enjoy and learn in the process.
Best to you and I enjoyed the chance to banter with the both of you!!
Just checking to make sure I wasn't being insulted.
Discussion is always good and I agree with your point about the "herd" mentality.
That's why I think it is important for "collectors" to know what is really driving their purchases before they get seriously burned.
Joe.
<< <i>
Vigorous promotion of high end moderns and registry set material account for virtually
all increased values in the market over the last few years, excepting the coins mentioned
in the preceding paragraph. While I wish everyone here much enjoyment in our hobby,
my primary focus is on Unc. 19th Century type, which is what I collect. >>
Promotion can't be the sole reason for the growth in 20th century and modern coins be-
cause very few of the old timers have gotten into these areas in the last couple years.
Every indication is that these are new collectors and still not extremely sophisticated by
the standards here. While many of th markets you mention may not be any higher there
does seem to be a general firming across the board.