Is it really the 1980's again?

kieferscoins

From the Latest PCGS article they say it is 1980 ish. Does anybody agree? Yes, there was great times (from what I heard) but there was a downside - the coin market crashed and took years to come back up. Is that what we want again?

Cameron Kiefer

LucyBop

And I wish it would really be 1950 ish instead!

dorkkarl

couldn't read the article (link failed) , but i seriously hope we never go through the early 1980's coin market again. a lot of folks, i mean A LOT of folks, including several friends, got burned, i survived (never did have much bullion investment). the slab fiasco of the late 1980's was the second disastrous wave to hit, & i did get nailed that time, but nowhere near the extent of others i know. i lost maybe a couple grand, i heard of investors losing 10's of thousands in slabed morgans & such.

the 70's was a much better coin market to be in as a buyer.

K S

ClarkOfKent

The 80's are a little foggy for me....

nwcs

I didn't have any money in the 80s as I didn't even get a driver's license till 89. Personally, I wouldn't mind it being like 1980s. I'd sell it all and then wait for the crash and buy it back for less!

kieferscoins

Alot of the major writers say to buy low and sell when the price is high or gets out of hand. I wonder how many people actually follow that advise. I was just a kid then too, but all the dealers that were there should have a comment or two within this thread.

Cameron Kiefer

nwcs

Probably easier for a collector to do it than a dealer or anyone who needs to have inventory or a steady cash flow.

coinguy1

Cameron,

I was around back then (am barely ashamed to admit it) and from my distant recollection, the current overall market does not compare favorably with that of 1980, at least, not the good/ hot part.

Some of the guys who claim they can't locate fresh coins really mean that they can't find any crack-outs/ up-grades. Others mean that they can't buy nice coins at the levels they want to. There are high quality coins out there, though it's not always easy to find them quickly.

I believe that the 1980 market was white hot until the spring of that year and crashed abruptly and dramatically, in the midst of the Central States show. All of a sudden, coins which had been easy to sell at good or great numbers, were virtually completely illiquid. It was not a fun time and it was not short-lived.

At least the current hype by some is not so bold as to compare the current market to the even hotter market of (approximately) 1989.

dorkkarl

if memory serves correct, generic-date pcgs-slabed ms-65 morgans (81-s, 80-s, 85-o) were around $600+, then the market was suddenly flooded w/ thousands & thousands of 'em, rapidly dropping prices probably below $100. wasn't that around 1989??? i seem to recall the same thing happening w/ walkers, though not to the same extent. now, we have the registy set, the only difference i can see is that pcgs exerts far more population control than they did in 1989 since, well, it's their registry system.

actually, i guess i selfishly do kinda hope it is 1989 all over again, as it would flush out a lot of the garbage. i (hopefully) learned a he11uva lot from that time, & have tried to invest very prudently in coins that would be pop-flation proof., ie the early stuff that has a very finite supply of high-grade material, & is virtually immune to the insanity of registry-pricing (not slamming anyone, just stating what i see from my perspective).

it would be wise for anyone w/ substatial coin investments to revisit the perils & pitfals of '89.

K S

DCAMFranklin

Of course it is not like the 80's! That is just some propaganda from a set of dealers hoping they won't get stuck with a glut of inventory if the economy doesn't begin to rise from here. If we settle into a double dip recession, then there won't be lots of excess discretionary dollars for coin collections. They build the hype hoping to move the inventory. There is no reason to rush your purchases. Pay what you think the coin is worth. If you can't get it for that price, then wait and move to the next opportunity.

paigowjohnny

I make cracks about slabs and Registry sets, but now I ask in all sincerity...and from a level of ignorance...

I frankly am amazed at reading all the inputs about folks going for super high MS and proof grade Kennedy and Franklin halves, and the prices they will pay...for example. I also go speechless reading about folks cracking out or trying to cross coins already at a superior grade, all for another point or two. I can't fault them...looking at what one point can bring in the value of, what seems to me, conditional rarities....nor will I ever throw stones at what folks collect. One person's yawn is another's obsession.

I don't know...but something in my gut just tells me that someday this Registry set chase...and maybe even the "taste" for plastic is gonna run out of steam. While I haven't looked at it that much...it seems to me that the prices going thru the roof are these conditional rarities. I mean...you can still get an 89-CC Morgan in VF 20 for about the same price you paid last year. Can we say the same for AH SMS Kennedy halves ??


I plead ignorance...I just don't know...but are we looking at a "tech bubble" in high end slabbed conditional rarities in "seemingly common" (and I use that term hesitantly for fear of torquing some folks off) series such as Frankies and Kennedy's...and yes even Morgans...that's gonna blow out ???

ccr

People aren`t as " panicy " as they where in the 1980`s. The 1980 silver/gold rush was more out of greed. 1989 was from the bank falures of some of the bigger banks making bad investments if my memory serves me right. The economy now as we hear it is sagging and it is usually safe to assume that when it does, people go into " Hard " investments ie bullion, real estate etc. So prices maybe going up but there going up for different reasons. I`m not an economist but it`s probably not a bad idea to keep an eye on it to see whats going on.

JoyofCollecting

I woke up this morning and rolled over and didn't see a nineteen year old next to me.....Alas, it is definitely not the 1980's again!!!

LucyBop

<< <i>I woke up this morning and rolled over and didn't see a nineteen year old next to me.....Alas, it is definitely not the 1980's again!!! >>



This Kitty looks like she did when she was 19!

Lakesammman

I think there are big differences. First, people have more knowledge now to make purchasing decisions. If you bought the first pop 1 PCGS66 1881-S Morgan, you paid too much. 15 years later, we have a better feel for what is truly rare. Secondly, you don't have Wall Street firms pushing "rare" coins on the unsuspecting public (allright....TV sellers aside ). Because the pop. reports are available, it wouold be very hard for a reputable company to push generic coins as being rare. Finally, rules have changed re: how retirement dollars can be invested. Used to be you could speculate all you want (coins or realty) - retirement plans currently (especially those with trustees) don't allow it. It was like the internet bubble - people wanting to get rich quick w/o having to work at it, speculation, etc.

Todays market is built more on solid, supply/demand, rational fundamentals - truly rare coins doing well, commodity coins floundering with no real reason to appreciate significantly.

Those of you who were dealers at the time - does the above hold water??

JoyofCollecting

I always enjoy the reading the HepKitty's posts. They are always warm and kind and usually bring a smile to my face. It must be wonderful to still look 19!!!!!

Unfortunately, people ususally guess my age at about 10 years over. The toning is starting to disappear, some rub is definitely showing and the luster has a hard time finding its way to the surface. Thank goodness my wife is a kind and loving woman.


Edited for mistake due to old age.

MrKelso

<< <i>And I wish it would really be 1950 ish instead! >>



I hear ya Lucy

MrKelso

I remember a lot of Over priced Coins and a big crash. Dealers couldnt give coins away at one point.

coinguy1

Two different markets/ peaks have been mentioned in this thread - the one of 1980 (the good old "raw" or uncertified days) and that of 1989 (certified grading and Wall Street funds were present and partly responsible). Which one should we discuss?

paigowjohnny

Wasn't back into collecting for either....I figure the 80 crash came from fallout of massive inflation, runaway bullion prices (I shudder when I think of what I had to pay in '80 for my 14K Naval Academy class ring) and retrograde from the Hunt silver massacre.....

LucyBop

<< <i>Thank goodness my wife is a kind and loving woman. >>



Amen Daddy-o! She is lucky and blessed to have you.

CLASSICS

<< <i>Two different markets/ peaks have been mentioned in this thread - the one of 1980 (the good old "raw" or uncertified days) and that of 1989 (certified grading and Wall Street funds were present and partly responsible). Which one should we discuss? >>

...............mark since you are still in the business, and like a lot of us, you have seen the ups and downs like a roller coaster, dont be afraid to enlighten what happened during both of those times. surely it just might help some of the newer collectors.

CalGold

Mark and other Dealers,

As I recall, in 1980 we had soaring inflation and investors and speculators were flocking to "hard assets" especially precious metals and coins for inflation protection. The silver and gold markets were in a frenzy due to the Hunt Brothers. Then the bubble burst, and the decline in silver and gold tarnished the coin market--in other words the speculators and those who thought coin prices could only go up--bailed out.

I was pretty much out for coins for a long time, including during 1989, in part because prices had gotten out of hand, so I don't know what was fueling that run up.

Like other investments, it seems that when the unknowledgeable newbies jump in big time prices soar and they get left holding the bag when the bubble bursts.

So if this is 1980 all over again, it means the market is being driven by speculators or unknowlegeable newbies, and the smart thing for collectors to do is to sell their collections now or sit on their cash and wait for the market to subside to more "normal" collector driven levels.

But what is the real story today? Certainly there is a lot of money around that is not going into the stock market or bonds or CDs. It has to go some place so maybe some of it is going into coins.

The question then is are coin price being driven up by new buyers entering the market for "investment" or are we just seeing long time collectors with a lot more money to spend than was the case a few year ago?

Also, I wonder whether firms like Pinnacle and Legend that deal in ultra high end material are really part of the same market as the guys who sell a lot of MS 63-65 Morgans, Walkers, and moderns. If these are two distinct market segments, are they seeing different market activity?

And what about all of the in-between material, like barber and seated coins in AU to MS62 or PR 63-64, where there would not necessarily be a lot of investor interest?



CG

homerunhall

The last two Bull markets were 1976-1980 and 1982-1989.

1976-1980 was driven by big inflation and a huge run-up in gold and silver prices. The last six months of 1979 were the hottest the rare coin market ever has been. Coins were going up 5% to 10% a week...week after week after week...some coins went up 1000% in six months. Obviously, today's market is not like that.

1982-1989 was driven by a focus on quality...capped off beginning in 1986 by the PCGS slab revolution. This Bull market did not have the same outside influences as 76-80, i.e. inflation and rising gold and silver prices. It was a very internally driven market. Today's market is different.

In my view today's market is driven by the coin collecting rebirth that had its roots in certified grading and blossomed with the government's Statehood quarter program. The PCGS Set Registry has also played a part. This market reminds me more of the early 1960s than the 1980s. To be sure, BU rolls and proof set speculation isn't involved this time, by the coin collecting mentality is very similar to the 1960s, but with a much more intense focus on quality. I love today's market and think it's very, very healthy.

David Hall

cladking

<< <i>

Like other investments, it seems that when the unknowledgeable newbies jump in big time prices soar and they get left holding the bag when the bubble bursts.

So if this is 1980 all over again, it means the market is being driven by speculators or unknowlegeable newbies, and the smart thing for collectors to do is to sell their collections now or sit on their cash and wait for the market to subside to more "normal" collector driven levels.


CG >>



Homerunhall said it so eloquently that I should just leave well enough alone. But...

The people buying silver art bars in the 70's, and silver dollars in '89, and silver in '79
and most all the others were hardly newbies. For the main part they were the experienced
collectors of the time. Many got out in time and more lost substantial percentages of their
"investment". This move is being caused by a grassroots sea change which is continuing
despite the numerous warnings of the experienced collectors of the time.

dorkkarl

<< <i>In my view today's market is driven by the coin collecting rebirth that had its roots in certified grading ... The PCGS Set Registry has also played a part. >>

mr. hall, i must respectfully say that the set-registry resonates strongly with me the certified-coin crash of 1989, where the supply suddenly outstripped demand, depressed prices by 80% or more in some cases, & slammed the door on alot of dealer's business. were the population of ultra-whammy super-duper high-grade coins to suddenly spike, prices would be similarly depressed. but i will grant that pcgs has taken more direct control this time around of such populations - ie. limiting the highest-end grades



<< <i>This market reminds me more of the early 1960s than the 1980s. >>

i don't see how current prices possibly reflect that! as a teen in 1970, i could pick up decent-date unc morgans for a couple of bucks, walkers were practically face, wheats were cheap as popcorn! even adjusting for inflation, no way can you make such proportional purchases today. i'll wager the 1960's was a buyer's market (nice coins cheap prices), current market is a seller's market.

not trying to say the 60's were "better" at all, just that the feel is not the same to me - although admittedly i started in coins at the very tail end of the "60's"

K S

cladking

The 60's were characterized by a rapidly growing collector base which is the
same thing occuring today. While it may no longer be possible (or wise) to buy
Morgans, walkers, or silver art bars at 1970's prices, there are alway areas of
the market which are grossly undervalued.

The grading companies have no real control over surviving numbers of any coins
and it is only we collectors who attach so much significance to the "pop" reports.
You'll notice that they are now talking about giving them away free so we'll be
sure to get what we pay for.