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Are Coins Hot or is the Hype Hot?
Ronyahski
Posts: 3,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
We all read and hear how Hot! the market is right now. Do you think so? Are the coins you collect really hot? Is demand rising, coins harder to find, prices rising? Or is this marketing hype?
I look at some areas like seated proofs, proof Lib nickels, Franklins, and don't see things on fire. They're not hot -maybe healthy is the better description. I think you could say that MS Lib nickels are Hot! right now, at least on the condition census. Why? Registry effect?
Do you have to run out and buy that next coin right now before prices skyrocket? What is your series of collecting right now and do you think they are Hot!?
I look at some areas like seated proofs, proof Lib nickels, Franklins, and don't see things on fire. They're not hot -maybe healthy is the better description. I think you could say that MS Lib nickels are Hot! right now, at least on the condition census. Why? Registry effect?
Do you have to run out and buy that next coin right now before prices skyrocket? What is your series of collecting right now and do you think they are Hot!?
Some refer to overgraded slabs as Coffins. I like to think of them as Happy Coins.
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roadrunner
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
The modern markets have more seasonal variation than the more traditional
markets, so I'm hoping that's all it is.
Warm is a word that for some reason, has been forgotten.
What is wrong with the word warm?
<< <i>What is wrong with the word warm? >>
In marketing vernacular it is not a "power" word.
Russ, NCNE
I believe most of us have been buying during the lows and the highs, so yes I think the overall coin market is at the least very warm if not hot in many areas. And I believe the market will get even hotter during the next 5 years, regardless of what the Newsletters and Coin Ad's are saying. It all boils down to supply and demand. I see thousands of new collectors bringing down the supply of several series of coins, and I also think enough of them will stay in it for the long haul to keep prices climbing.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
NOTE: No trees were killed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.
Type collector since 1981
Current focus 1855 date type set
ARTICLE:
Overhyped Hype?
While the talk in the industry is of a booming market, we're still seeing a very two-tiered environment out there. Many coins are not selling for prices any higher than they were a year or two ago. (Although we admit that most everything is easier to sell.) The "crazy" prices are being paid for a relatively select group. These mainly consist of low population pieces that fit into the "Registry program." Of course, two other hot areas are gorgeously toned silver commems and the 1936-42 proof material we've written about before. But in reality, many areas have not seen much price pressure, and there are still numerous bargains to be found. Dated Twentieth Century gold, almost all mintstate silver type (especially Seated and Barber material), silver commemoratives that do not have spectacular color, proof nickel coinage and Peace Dollars are all still available at very reasonable levels.
We are not trying to take the wind out of the sails of those touting this as a hot market. In many ways it is. But we want to point out that this Bull market, if that's what it is, is still in its infancy. For those who are adding to your collections now, this is a good thing, especially if you're targeting coins that are currently out of the spotlight.
But because of that should we believe that the rest of the market reamins a bargain and we are at the beginning of a bull market?
I'd like to hear from some of the other series specialists as well. Where do you see your series headed? Hot! or Not!?
i am a poet and dont even know it.............lol
for me right now the coins to buy are great coins coins with exceptional eye appeal and extraordinary qualities i cant tell you what to buy or what is great but shiow me a coin and the price and i will tell you if it is great or not
now for example deep ice blue three cent nickels in proof 67 real 67 coins with eye appeal cameo or monster toned pastels are hot are really grest buys and also early 1870's proofs deep cameo three cent nicks are great coins and values to buy also
proof 67 monster lib nicks like the late 1880's and also deep cameo proof 67 coins lib nicks are great coins to buy and a value
seated stuff choice to gem to superb gem proof and ms deep cameo cameo plus monster toned are great coins and values w
well the list goes on and on
sincerely michael
In answer to your questions about Registry coins and 1936-1942 proof coins - yes and yes. But, they are still "hot", regardless of the reasons for it.
We're not necessarily claiming that the rest of the market is a bargain or that we are at the beginning of a bull market because, let's face it, no one knows. But, we do feel that a number of areas seem reasonably or attractively priced, especially on a relative basis, compared to the "hot" segments. We feel that it is better to buy good value/the right coins when they are not hot.
I just hate it when dealers think you are so gullible as to believe anything they say, and give you no credit for your own observations. I say the market is overhyped!!!
The silver series has picked up some recently.. but was also fairly dead during the summer!!
So what did I do? I bought a ton of coins during this time at great prices. I bought a very nice 51S MS67 for $585. One sold on ebay today for $1,100. WOW!! Either someone overpaid or I got mine cheap. I bet the market is somewhere in the middle.
The State Quarter market is a joke. It collapsed before the summer. MS68's for $40. What happened to $5,000 a coin or even a couple of hundred. Thank g-d I didnt get caught up in that.
Anyway, I agree that the market has been slow, but bet it picks up fast real soon. Especially since we are on the verge of war and Xmas is coming!! Better buy now before the world goes kaput!
In answer to your questions about Registry coins and 1936-1942 proof coins - yes and yes. But, they are still "hot", regardless of the reasons for it.
And that is my point, the reasons matter! They are hot because of market hype. Chances are better that won't last. On the other hand, coins that are hot because the collector base is growing, because the long term supply/demand matrix is changing, because relative scarcity demands rising prices, because quality begats price, because its about the coin and not the plastic...now that's a Hot! market!
Proof Dime Registry Set
What do you use for increased hype once you've used "Nuclear"?
In 1998, I decided to collect as many nice ones as I could find. My first purchase was a 1938 PR 66 Walker, a blazer for $380. I remember the ridicule I received from two dealers, paid too much for a coin with a limited demand. It's a good thing I tend to go against the grain sometimes
This past spring I sold that Walker for $876. At the same time I sold a 1938 pr66 Mercury (blast white) for $385 that I paid $210 for. I had the same kind of results with the lincoln and jefferson. I decided to keep the quarters and finish the set. The last one should be here next week.
By anyone's definition that series is hot, its not the dealers hyping it, its the market demand. Low mintages, beautiful coins, limited series only 7 years are some of the reasons.
At any rate, if it's hot, there's a good chance that it's being hyped. Over time, a lot of money has been lost (and made) on 1936 to 1942 proof issues.
Even in a hot market, there are plenty of buying opportunities. Just buy what you like, rather than buying what someone else might like. Keys, semi-keys, and coins with nice eye appeal will aloways be so.
I have yet to meet a large dealer who has said the market overall stinks. Sort of like realtors. Ever meet one who said it was NOT time to buy a home?
i think greg has it right. the 98% of coins that the average person can afford are dead. the 2% that the multi-billionaires can afford are white hot.
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
White-hot solar plasma. Everyone within 100 miles of the coin in question was instantly liquified.
actually i think a nuclear blast is hotter than the sun's surface, but that sure sounds hard to beat! we should call the PCGS writers to find out what beats "nuclear". i'm sure they have a title-writer's cheatsheet or something.
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
That's what you'll get if you buy some of this stuff.
GET IT WHILE IT'S HOT HOT HOT!!!
WITH A SUPERNOVA OF SAVINGS!!!
<< <i>I have always had an affinity for the proofs 36-42, they represent the best struck coins of the era in which they were produced...
By anyone's definition that series is hot, its not the dealers hyping it, its the market demand. >>
It's dealer hype and buying into the market, raising bids.
But given the state of the economy, it is hard to see how the coin market can not have been affected. If the hot market hype is to be believed, we have to believe that despite dismal corporate profits/losses, dismall retail sales in almost every sector, tens of thousands of layoffs, tens of thousands of workers fearing that they will be laid off, and billions of dollars of personal savings and pension funds lost in the stock market decline, people are saying
"Gee, I just lost my last job. I may loose my new job any day. I've lost most of my savings in the stock market decline. What should I do now? I know, I think I'll go buy some coins."
Then again, there are still people with money around who may support prices on big ticket items. The coin market has probably always been a multi tiered market.
The high end market may be supported by hard core collectors with deep pockets. The folks who can pay five or six figures and not sweat it. There is a sign at the Imperial Palace Auto Museum in Las Vegas, home to one of the largest collections of Duesenbergs, that says something like, "These cars were owned by the wealthiest people in the country during the Great Depression."
The middle market would be more likely to feel the affect of people sitting on their money. This would be the collectors who might save up to spend any where from a few hundred to a few thousand dollars on a coveted addition to their collection. Some of these people are probably feeling a lot less wealthy these days, and less inclined to spend on a hobby.
The low end (not to disparage this part of the market--it is probably by far the largest segment) is probably a mixed bag, but since it entails expenditures of less than $100 per coin in many cases there is a lot more room for people to spend some money on coins without feeling that they are over extending their budget.
I also doubt that broad support in coin market can be found from investors. Even when people are seeking as an investment alternative to the stock market, it is hard to believe that many investors would be jumping into coins during an economic recession. Coins have been seen as an inflation hedge, or something that may appreciate long term assuming a growing economy. And it takes time to learn about coins before one goes out and starts buying them.
Just my amateur economic analysis for what, if anything, it is worth.
CG
People who buy low pop MS 66 and better Classic Type always will have lots of money to spend. The market for these coins will continue to be strong. Classic Coins in the middle market range (say MS 63-5 costing $1,000 to $5,000) have been dead, dead, dead for the last three years. I don't have a clue about the low end of the market, Gold, or Commems.
Proof Barber & MS coinage (MS 65) has dropped 20-30% in the last 3 years (moreso re dimes & quarters, less so re halves). Ditto re most Seated type. Moreso for MS 65 FH SLQs, which are really cheap now.
The market for Braided Hair Large Cents has also dropped in 5, with the exception of choice RD specimens. Liberty Nickels have been dead for as long as I can remember, excepting attractive MS 66 and better, and PF 67 and better grades, the few times they become available.
The market for high end Capped Bust coinage has been soft. Half Cents have gone nowhere for the last 3 years in MS 65. Again, however, people will pay strong $ for choice RD 65s.
Demand seems to be strong re Registry Set coins and 1936 - 42 Proof coins, neither of which I collect. Both of them have been hyped a great deal. Ditto re Bust $s.
Demand continues to be strong for the traditional favorites, high grade and monster toned Walkers and Morgans. Ditto re Seated $s in 3 or better. There seems to be increasingly strong demand for Trade $s, both MS & Proof, in 3 or better.
Choice RD IHC in 5 or better seem to be strong, and ditto re early date Lincolns.
If I did not comment about another series, it's probably because I don't collect it. I've said enough.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."