Is the modern boom taking market share away from the classics or not?

kranky

I guess this is a question aimed at those who have been around a while. This is not a moderns vs. classics question, but I'm wondering what people have observed.

A decade ago it would have been very hard to spend large sums on moderns because they really were "under the radar" of the market. Do you feel that the size of today's market for high-grade moderns compared to 10 years ago has come at the expense of the classics market, or is in addition to it?

cladking

To the degree that the old timers are getting involved in it, it is at the
expense of the classics. Most of this is from newbies and the net effect
may actually be positive for classics or will be soon.

shirohniichan

I'd say it's bringing action in addition to the classics market more than at the expense of it. The collectors come from different crowds for the most part.

Bustman

I agree with cladking, when the "s" hits the fan with modern coins, classics will be a good place to be.

jamesfsm

There is already upward pressure on price in a number of classic series (Bust, Seated, for two). I agree that modern collectors who are beginners may be converts to the classics later.

Clankeye

I think in some instances the moderns appeal to people who could not afford high MS grades in classic coins. The ability to pick up some nice coins that don't look like they've been pawed by Freddy Kreuger or rubbed into lifeless slumber is a draw for people. Do I think that takes money away from the classics? No, I think anything that increases the awareness of collecting and numismatics is a benefit to all areas of the market in the long run.

Also, I do not believe this is the only reason people collect moderns. I think there are as many reasons as there are people who collect them. It's just an observation on my part, that may have something to do with the popularity of it.

kranky

I tended to think that high-grade modern buyers = newer collectors also. But maybe the newer collectors buying moderns today would have been the same ones years back who were buying proof sets, mint sets, circ Lincolns, etc. as beginners. They could still have been buying "moderns" but just in a different form.

IrishMike

Good question and I don't have any empirical evidence just a thought. I have seen many new collectors start with moderns and learn then to appreciate the so called classics. I think this will eventually create more and more demand for them. I wouldn't call it a progression, sounds like a put down, but then again it might be.

cladking

Certainly the terms modern and classics themselves are relative. When I started collecting
buffalo nickels in 1957 the newest ones were only 19 years old. Today the oldest clads are
far older at 37 years. In 1957 most newbies were filling penny boards with coins that were
current just as most newbies are today with the states quarters. This hobby has needed an
entry point since 1965 when the perception became that all newer coins were uncollectible.

Clankeye

Also, not to be underestimated, the ability of completing a full set. People still want to have a goal, and work to complete something. When I started collecting classic commems I knew I couldn't afford even the full 50 piece set, so I put together a full set of Carvers of one grade and eye appeal. Moderns offer people the challenge of putting together a complete set of something. To actively engage in the hobby a lot of people would rather do that then put all their money into owning, say, a single high mint state Standing Liberty quarter.

To go back to the original question. I do not think the moderns will take market share from classics. I think the moderns will bring in and build collectors who may "stick." Obviously, many won't, but those who do have the potential to bring a lot to numismatics. I don't mean this to sound condescending in any way. A lot of modern collectors will stay modern collectors for life. And derive much satisfaction from it.

(One case in point, and I'm whispering so that he won't hear me.... our Russ on the boards... I'll bet you anything five years down the road he will have a huge number of what are considered classic coins in his collection)

dorkkarl

<< <i>Is the modern boom taking market share away from the classics or not? >>

he11 no! unfortunately not! if anything, the demand & price of classics has been a line pointing straight up! in a strange, ironic way, i WISH the moderns would push collectors out of the classics - so some material would get on the market. i have had one devil of a time in the past couple of years trying to find anything decent.

K S

OnlyBuffalos

For the very large part, the people who collected classics before the modern boom started, are still collecting classics. I do not know many long time collectors who are into modern coins.

One of the consequences of the current boom in moderns has been the change in many dealers' focus. I believe many dealers, especially new and part time dealers, are making the majority of their profits in modern coins and thus a large part of their time and effort is devoted to that market. Modern coins are much easier to acquire and turnover is quicker for moderns. The modern market is easier to get into for a dealer and finding modern quality merchandise less of a challenge.

Hopefully some modern collectors will sometime down the line discover the fun and challenges associated with older coins. To some extent this has already happened as older quality coins are just not as available as they were five years ago. Classic rarities are much tougher to find already.

Dog97

in addition to it
I buy a few Classics and the price isn't getting any cheaper.

Blade

Nope. Wait and see how long it take David Lawrence to sell that $750K 1894-S 10c.