BUT, WHY?

wondercoin

First read the thread "I've had it with PCGS" which Morris just authored.

Now, my question.

Let's assume for purposes of this thread only PCGS has recently changed the "line" on copper by 1/2 -1 point as has been suggested by many people. Hence (assuming the line change), most of the MS68RD Lincolns currently in PCGS holders would not grade MS68RD today, if resubmitted. I have never seen the 1955(s) Lincoln in PCGS-MS68RD (pop 1), but it is being auctioned off by Heritage next month. Shylock has already questioned the appeal of the coin for that grade on the other board.

Now, let's assume the coin goes for a record price at the Heritage auction (say $12k). And, let's assume one of the serious Lincoln guys wins it and determines the quality of the coin is only equal to the numerous MS67RD pieces that have been slabbed lately and are presently in this collector's collection. Just like Keets and his MS66DMPL Morgan, this collector sends it to PCGS for regrade, it only grades MS67RD under todays (assumed tighter) standards and the difference in value is $150 for an MS67RD and $12,000 for an MS68RD. The collector asks PCGS for an $11,850 check (they took in maybe $15-$30 grading fee to slab this coin in the firstplace). Who thinks this is PCGS' long-term agenda?

Does anyone else see that there is ENORMOUS RISK to PCGS as a company to actually change the line by 1/2 point - 1 point on copper, or any coin series for that matter? Wouldn't it be crazy for them to do it now (especially after the issues they faced with the PR70DCAM line a short while ago)? Isn't the logical answer here to assume they have just been "very, very tight" of late, but have no intention to change the line - it would be ludicrous and against their own interests to assume they would - right? Or, does common sense not play into any of this?

Wondercoin.

tradedollarnut

Since when does common sense enter into anything to do with the grading game?

MadMarty

The first problem I see is that the 55-S Lincoln has no price in a MS68 in the price guide. So there is nothing to base the refund on. You can't go by the price paid. I'm sure if I sent one of my PR70DCAM Lincolns back for regrade it will be returned a PR70DCAM. I can't see PCGS downgrading a coin when there is money at stake. They just won't give out any more high grades. Thus, driving up the price on the available pool of high grade coins...

coinguy1

wondercoin,

I see one BIG problem with your premise - I believe that you assume way too easily, that PCGS would just casually downgrade the coin to the tune of several thousand dollars (out of their pocket).

Whether, in theory, the coin should be downgraded, based on how it compares to MS67's and MS68's is one thing. PCGS downgrading it, is an entirely different matter. There is no way that NGC and PCGS can be entirely objective about downgrading their coins, when the result is their money out the door. If the major grading companies were entirely consistent in their grading, they would probably lose a ton of business. Think about all of the resubmissions that they would lose. And, many dealers (and collectors) who complain about the very inconsistencies that they sometimes benefit from, wouldn't necessarily fare quite so well either.

BillJones

PCGS has changed their standards, if you want to call them standards, on numerous occasions. They have gone though lax periods and tight periods. To tell you the truth my recent observations of coins like Morgan Dollars tell me that PCGS and NGC have gotten very lax in their grades. It seems to me that everything has slipped by a point. What used to be MS-63 is now MS-64 and the old 64s are now 65s and so on.

The point is that there has never been consistency in third party grading. What could be one grade on a given submission could be another on a re-submission. For that reason there never will be an iron clad guarantee that a coin that is the finest graded is in fact the finest coin a service has every handled. This is especially true for the finest know modern material where the differences between grades for MS-67, 68 and 69 are so small that the person who assigned the grade would be hard pressed to translate it in words into a consistent standard.

lordmarcovan

Oh, I think I can see it from PCGS' standpoint, too, to be fair. I certainly would not want their job.

However, the woes of the grading game are very real, and that is one reason I prefer to buy my coins already encapsulated. I seldom submit any myself. And when I do, I try not to have any expectations at all. It's a crapshoot. I also try not to be too sore a loser. But if a service continually smacks my coins with lower grades than I expect, it's time to do one of two things: (1) go back to the books and study more on how to grade, or (2) quit playing the submission game altogether. Or a little of both. Even if one reads everything written about grading US coins, though, you'll still not be able to predict the outcome of a submission with absolute certainty. We are all human, including the PCGS graders. Everyone is fallible, and differences of opinion will always exist, no matter whose professional opinion is being put forth.

But in fairness to PCGS, I will say that the spread between expectations and received grades in my case has always been within two points, and if one considers the 1.5 point bias everyone supposedly has for their own coins, as I mentioned in the other thread, then the difference is understandable. The problem is, those two points might mean nothing in the circulated grades. They might mean hundreds or even thousands of dollars in the MS grades. It's natural that some folks will howl when they don't get what they (thought) they deserved.

dbldie55

Has keets seen a check yet?

Russ

Wondercoin,

For the sake of argument, let's assume that the conspiracy theory is correct; that PCGS has deliberately tightened standards based on some agenda known only to them. For the purposes of this discussion, the nature of that agenda isn't all that important.

Now, if they have indeed done that, their risk is far, far lower then it might appear at first blush. The reason is simple. VERY few people would do as Keets did. Most would simply enter the coin in their registry set and proclaim to the world "Hey! Look at me! I own a pop 1!"

It works this way for the very same reason that these hundreds of diet scams can offer a MONEY BACK GUARANTEE! - and still stay in business, even though they are selling crap. Only a very tiny percentage of people ever avail themselves of that guarantee.

It's all about the risk/reward ratio. In this day and age, that ratio favors the company.

Russ, NCNE

UncleJoe

I know in advance that my response is naive but didn't I read in a thread somewhere assuring us that the graders did not know who submitted or the grade of the coin submitted. Supposedly the graders were free to give their objective (subjective) opinion as to the grade of each submission. Is this correct?

Joe.

tradedollarnut

The ultimate guarantee would be to create an NGC style "overslab" for submitting grade review coins to the graders. Then they wouldn't know if they had a cross or a downgrade in their hands. Can you imagine the turmoil!

Ooh - that's so evil!!! ROTFLMAO!!!

oreville

This is why I like my Canadian coins that have the PCGS slab with a ICCS 2x2 sealed plastic flip grade attached to the PCGS slab, even if different & generally lower.

The Canadians really know how to grade!!!

jtryka

I'd love to see the statistics on just how often PCGS actually downgrades a coin on a grade review. My guess is about as often as ACG undergrades. The only way to eliminate the bias would be to crack out the coin and send it in, but that would be nuts since the plastic is worth way more than the coin ($150 vs. $11,850 in this case). Unless of course, you work for Dateline and want to expose this for what it is, a scam riddled with inconsistency, then it might be worth it, unfortunately I'm not sure how good coin scams are for ratings.

supercoin

Conspiracy theories aside -- I can tell you from personal experience that PCGS will and has downgraded coins.

For those who assume that they won't, have you ever tried?

Sure, if it's a borderline case, they may not. But for clearly overgraded coins -- even in cases where it did not appear to be PCGS' fault (i.e. dip job gone bad after holdering) -- they've made it right.

Pretty remarkable, actually. So find a different thing to bash them about than their regrade policy.

keets

i think i'll go watch mel gibson and julia roberts in "Conspiracy Theory" and imagine it to be all about coins instead of the government!!

maybe i'm naive but in order to protect their integrity a service such as PCGS would need to have certain safeguards to anonymity of submitters in place and others to prevent bias on the part of the graders towards the coins they're grading. i have a general idea of what these are but since it appears that only employees are permitted inside the facility we only have "ideas" of how the overall process works. i've always been of the opinion that most of the turmoil that results from lesser than expected grade results and perceived shifting of standards is simply a matter of THEM knowing more than US. that was the gist of my first post as a member. if these are added to the fact of a slight turnover or addition of graders then the inconsistency we all notice isn't such an earth shaking occurance.

it seems to me that if someone had real insight into what goes on at the major services and there was really some noteworthy shenanigans to report that it would be reported. perhaps all that is prevented by disclosure statements. my sense of it is that we're all to a certain degree paranoid and at the same time aware of market values assigned to grades.

al h.

coinguy1

Supercoin,

I have had coins downgraded by PCGS but my point (and I believe that of some of the others who have replied) is that there is a built in bias against it, due to monetary factors.

Also, I think you oversimplify it where you state :"Sure, if it's a borderline case, they may not. But for clearly overgraded coins -- even in cases where it did not appear to be PCGS' fault (i.e. dip job gone bad after holdering) -- they've made it right."

What are "clearly overgraded coins"? Coins that we think are overgraded? Coins that aren't as nice as other coins graded the same? Coins that aren't better than coins graded the same? Unfortunately, the standard for "clearly overgraded coins" isn't that cut and dry. And that leaves a lot of lattitide on the part of the grading service when they are deciding whether or not to lower the grade and shell out the bucks. I'm not bashing them, just pointing out some facts of life.

supercoin

Mark, that's certainly true. It's also equally true that many collectors/dealers are equally biased about whether a coin deserves a grade, or is overgraded. Grading is not a science, and opinions are easily swayed (intentionally or not) depending on what side of the deal you're on.

On the other hand, given the amount of "wiggle room" PCGS could give themselves if they wanted, they have stood behind their coins remarkably, in my experience. How about your experience?

We also expect an impossible task from grading services -- i.e. near perfectly consistent grading over a period of 10 years -- how many dealers would like to be held to that same standard, with any sort of cash-back guarantee? The fact that any grading service can be as consistent as they are is no mean feat.

We expect that near-perfect consistency, it seems, because there are many cases where a 1-point difference can mean a 10X difference in market value. Without that, it wouldn't matter so much. But... whose "fault" is that 10X difference?

coinguy1

Supercoin,

Now, we're pretty much in agreement regarding: ".... It's also equally true that many collectors/dealers are equally biased about whether a coin deserves a grade, or is overgraded. Grading is not a science, and opinions are easily swayed (intentionally or not) depending on what side of the deal you're on."

And, in addition to what you said above - not only are many collectors and dealers biased, but also, many simply don't know how to grade properly.

My experience (on a limited basis, as we haven't sent in too many coins for downgrade) is that the coin has to be pretty darned bad before they lower the grade. But, there have been a few occasions where they lowered the grade, to my surprise.

I also agree with your comments : We also expect an impossible task from grading services -- i.e. near perfectly consistent grading over a period of 10 years -- how many dealers would like to be held to that same standard, with any sort of cash-back guarantee? The fact that any grading service can be as consistent as they are is no mean feat."

"We expect that near-perfect consistency, it seems, because there are many cases where a 1-point difference can mean a 10X difference in market value. Without that, it wouldn't matter so much. But... whose "fault" is that 10X difference?"

Gee, this isn't as much fun, now that we agree on so much!

dbldie55

In my experience they do not. The case of the 70's is pretty easy, but what about other grades. How many downgrades have you seen in the non-70 grade?

braddick

I think much of this is preception vs reality.
PCGS (and/or) NGC "tighten" or "loosen" their grading based only on the wearysome stories of a very few.
Not happy with your grade? You've got the whole wide internet to formulate your case.

50,000 coins, on average, graded each month per Service. Of course there are going to be coins that can be popped out the next day, resubmitted, and receive a different grade.
But check out the flavor of this forum. Some Threads indicate PCGS overgrades. Some indicate PCGS undergrades. All based on the preceived initial grade by the OWNER. Out of those 50,000 coins, sounds like a wash to me.
Of course I can only base the above on personal experience. I received an SMS Jefferson from a Collector that swears PCGS really messed up the grade on this one! "PCGS MS66?? when it's a MS69 all day long!" Guess what? -Coin received and sure enough, there is the coin slide mark right along the jaw line.
How about the batch of AU58's!? "These are MS65's all day long! PCGS sure messed these up!" Well, no they're not, and no, they did not. Tilt the coin in the proper lighting. Sure enough, there's the rub on Washington or Kennedy's cheek. That slight 'off-white' discoloration that indicates circulation (or, mishandling).

I doubt any of graders get together and state, "OK- it's the end of August. Time to tighten up our grading on all those Lincoln Memorials we've been getting. Why? Oh, just for the fun of it!"

No- it's not a conspiracy. It's just humans making mistakes as humans do- whether that is the Grader, on occassion- or YOU expecting too much out of your coins.

tradedollarnut

Braddick - I respectfully disagree and assert that, in my and other's opinions, since about a year or so ago it has been a specific PCGS policy to tighten up.

I totally agree with you about perceptions and ability to grade and collector bias on their own coins. BUT, the entire bourse floor does not start talking about changing standards, about PCGS being too tight that they are choking off the flow of coins and about respected numismatic eyes believing they themselves "don't how to grade anymore" off of the points you made. Those things are in response to a very real, very perceivable shift in grading standards!

pmh1nic

I agree with those who have said that many expect too much from the grading services. This discussion should also reinforce in the minds of anyone who pays a 10x, 20x, 30x or more grade rarity premium for any coin (classic or modern) that they are play Russian roulette as far as recouping their "investment". In spite of the buy the coin not the plastic mantra in many respects buying and selling is a numbers game. Unless you're very sure (and in some case more sure than the grading service) you need to exercise due caution when considering these types of premiums.

braddick

<< <i>Braddick - I respectfully disagree and assert that, in my and other's opinions, since about a year or so ago it has been a specific PCGS policy to tighten up. I totally agree with you about perceptions and ability to grade and collector bias on their own coins. BUT, the entire bourse floor does not start talking about changing standards, about PCGS being too tight that they are choking off the flow of coins and about respected numismatic eyes believing they themselves "don't how to grade anymore" off of the points you made. Those things are in response to a very real, very perceivable shift in grading standards! >>


Would you agree though that it isn't series specific?
There is a general vive that PCGS has "tightened up" by half a point, but then it's hit and miss, agree? There are many collectors who speak of seeing freshly graded material that is overgraded.

Do you believe the Crack Out Game will continue five years from now when all the 'in-the-know' artists look for the "blue insert with the barcode up front"?
Or, is this latest tightening trend not a trend, but the New Standard?
Either way, getting back to Wondercoin's original premise- I think the Lincoln will return an MS68 because it is an MS68. It was then and it is now.

braddick

Another thought occurred to me as a reread the above posts:
Aren't these the same graders many scoffed at for grading the 1933 St. Gaudens as MS65?

tradedollarnut

1) In general, PCGS clamped down across the board. Recently they've opened the gates a little in gold and dollars. There are always errors and inconsistencies. That's the human equation.

2) I do agree with you that 5 years from now the blue labels will be a bit in demand!

3) If the luster of the 1933 Saint was full and booming, then it was a tweener coin. Tween what two grades depends on your perspective!

supercoin

Generally speaking I think braddick's got it right. The natural ebb and flow from different graders on different days, along with the tendency of the human brain to try to find patterns where there are none, probably explains most of the perception.

There is at least one exception, which is the PR70 grade -- they were very tight with that grade, loosened up for a time, and have since tightened again.

I say that not because of my experience (though it is in agreement too), but based on a purely objective look at the history of the population reports. Any other explanation simply doesn't fit.

Bear

Just because some of us are paranoid, it does not preclude the possibility, that someone is not out there looking to screw us into the wall. Bear

BillJones

<2) I do agree with you that 5 years from now the blue labels will be a bit in demand!> Text




If any labels are going to be in demand, I think it might be the green labels. I've seen more conservatively graded coins in those than any other kind. Still you can't pounce whenever you see one. There are ugly coins in green labels holders too. Brand name loyalty is not the solution. Knowing how to grade coins is your only true defense against getting ripped off.

michael

for me grading is an art not a science and that will never change

and with the human factor/nature involved along with giving out grades in a business orientated for profit motive

then i think grading will always be in a huge state of flux changing and changing and changing

now the above is not bad or good fair or unfair! just the way it is

just make sure when you buy a coin you either know what you are doing when looking at a coin or have someone you trust look at the said coin for you, it would be better though for you to make your own decsison though

and if you cant judge ythe value and grade of a coin you are buying and are unsure of its worth TO YOU RAW then do not buy the coin!!

and if you can judge a coin in its slab and it is priced more than you want to pay then you have a decsison to make do not blame the grading services there is no guarantee in coins it is a hobby if you like the coin and the price irespective of the holder or what the seller says you buy it if not then pass

but i think there is much more going on here than just a hobby many have other UNREASONABLE reasons in buying coins AND HAVE INFLATED EXPECTATIONS THAT ARE NOT FULLFILLED that is why there is sooooooooo much trouble and controversy

sincerely michael