Prognostications - State of the hobby in 5 years?

DHeath

I'd love to hear where you all feel the hobby is headed. Let's try a relatively short period of time, say 5 years. Who will be the dominate services for this industry? Will conservation become the order of the day? Which series will be hot, and why? Will new collectors increase in numbers or decrease? Will classic coin prices increase? How about some of the moderns? Which series will the mint discontinue if any? Will auctions, ebay, or dealers thrive?

RLinn

I prdict quarters will still be strong as the state quarter program completes. This will be especially true if the mint changes designs on quarters as they ought to.

Moderns won't be as modern as they are today and I hope will come into their prime, especially with collectors enetering the hobby as a result of the state quarter program.

I hope there is a change in the cent and nickel designs.

Petescorner

I predict there will be a ground swell of unhappy HSN customers who have found that the coins they purchased aren't worth half of what they paid.

-Dan

pmh1nic

Who will be the dominate services for this industry?

If Baseball has his way they'll only be PCGS . I honestly have no idea who will be the reigning champion among the grading services 5 years from now. If ICG has deep enough pockets and keeps running those mega-ads who knows.

Will conservation become the order of the day?

If Iwog has his way anything that can be dipped will be dipped . If by conservation you mean dipping any coin that can be "successfully" dipped I hope not. Not to rehash what I've said in the past but I hope that natural toning in general won't be frowned upon by the majority of the collecting community. Coins have a history that includes a natural process that has become a part of the coin and its history. I appreciate the coin and the history and don't see a need to out of hand remove it.

Which series will be hot, and why? Will new collectors increase in numbers or decrease?

I think there will still be a solid group of hardcore state quarter collectors finishing up their sets. At the same time I think some of them will get interested in classic coins (Morgans, Barbers, Seated and Bust) as well as early 20th century coins (Walkers, Peace Dollars, Mercs). I guess what I'm saying is I think all segments of the market are going to benefit from the folks that will branch out from the State Quarter program.

Will classic coin prices increase?

More demand for quality coins will translate into higher prices.

How about some of the moderns?

I think the bubble will bust on some of the super high premiums paid for what are now low pop State Quarters but in general I think more collectors looking for the top quality moderns (pre-1965 Washingtons, Franklins, Rooses....o.k. Supercoin IKEs ) is going to translate in to higher prices for in general for them.

Which series will the mint discontinue if any?

I'd like to have all of them redesign. Five years gets us to 2007. Give it a few more years and I'd say Lincoln's definitely, Washington quarters and in spite of the folks in Virginia Jeffersons. The Sac is dead while the dollar bill remains and the Kennedy Half should be retired.

Will auctions, ebay, or dealers thrive?

I think the internet is great but nothing is going to replace the face to face interaction between collectors and dealers. In spite of all the negative stuff that gets posted about dealers the honest ones that have a genuine interest in the health of the hobby and industry are a tremendous asset to collectors.

DHeath

Great post, and I agree. I personally also believe Anacs will gain marketshare. As for conservation, I believe it will grow and eventually be offered by the other services for a fee. The submitters will want the best grade they can achieve, and the services will want the additional revenue. The down side is that many coins that shouldn't be dipped will be, but on a more postive note, many amateurs will choose not to do it themselves, but rather to submit. I hope the appreciation of good toning will become widespread, and those coins will be spared.

Clankeye

......"I hope the appreciation of good toning will become widespread, and those coins will be spared."

Amen to that, brother. But, I have found getting people to agree on "good toning" is a slippery slope. A lot of coins I find attractive and interesting are potentially at risk. I second your hopes for the future.

kranky

Dominant services: No change. PCGS and NGC will continue to stay on top as long as they stand behind their guarantees and maintain current standards. They will have to resist the urge to loosen standards as a solution to a drop in submissions if that occurs. I see ANACS staying in a runner-up position, and the others to come and go with barely a blip, except to make more of a dent in Conder101's wallet.

If someone patents a scheme to laser-etch a unique serial number or other identifier on the rim of a coin that you can't see with the naked eye, that outfit may become a front runner even if it's just for authentication. This is done with diamonds today. Imagine being able to definitely identify a specific coin even if it's years later. Of course, this means nothing to shylock who has the entire surviving mint state population of IHCs committed to memory, and can identify them even if they are wearing a disguise like retoning. But the rest of us might benefit.

Conservation: Johnny Cochrane would say "If you can't detect, you must accept". Just like AT coins, undetectable conservation is, well, undetectable. If you can't see it, it didn't happen. Techniques in conservation and ATing will only improve, and that's why I think it will become more commonplace.

What series will be hot: Any series that is current today but replaced by a new design, if that occurs. Different classic series will perk up and fade periodically, but there won't be any major movement. Morgans will continue to make up half of the rare coin market because of the unbeatable combination of big + silver + incredible supply in top grades + beautiful design + old.

New collectors: will continue to decrease. I believe most new collectors (not all, especially not the ones that are frequenting this board) get into it for a quick buck. If they don't get it, they're gone. They see just the tip of the iceberg and think, "Hey, I could make money at that!" As a hobby, we stink at developing new collectors.

Classics/moderns: in general, I think the movement will be increasing prices in top grades, and stagnant to falling prices of all other grades. The people with money want the "best" and will pony up to get it. I see fewer people willing to collect just for the enjoyment and the accomplishment of finishing a set. If it isn't Registry Set material, many aren't interested. Eventually, though, I think the "pop-top" phenomenon will fade and people will no longer pay 50x for a 68 modern compared to a 67. When that happens it will be quick and people will be dumping like crazy to avoid being the one left holding the bag.

Auctions/ebay/dealers: Auctions will thrive because it's the most competitive arena. Ebay will stay around because slabbed coins give people buying confidence and because a whole lot of people live nowhere near a shop or show. It's their only way to buy. Some dealers will make it - especially the ones who are well-established in a medium-size town with no competition. They can buy from the public and sell on ebay or to wholesalers. If they can maintain the volume, they'll be OK.

[Bonus answer to unasked question ] - What is the biggest threat to the hobby? The US Mint, IMHO. They will not be satisfied until every dime of potential profit is in their hands, with none left for the buyers. They'll continue to churn out mediocre product in as many ways as they can think of, and instead of new collectors starting by buying Mint products with the chance of resale at a modest profit, they will find out that most Mint products drop in resale value and turn away from the hobby. People don't necessarily NEED to make money, but they enjoy thinking that they have a CHANCE.

DHeath

Kranky,

It does seem that the mint is trying to usurp hobbyist/dealer profits. There is a plethora of products, and a lower quality standard. IMHO I love the clads, but the quality has really changed since their introduction. I suppose that makes finding decent clads more of a challenge, but all of the coins look better struck in silver. Some of the new gold and platinum is pretty though.

merz2

As has been said many times,The Lincoln Cent because of it's wide popularity and the closer we get to the 100th year of the coin it will get more and more dominent.IMHO!!!!!

keets

i think that NCS is the start of a new aspect of numismatics just as PCGS was the start of the last great change. probably most, if not all, grading companies will offer some type of conservation and i don't think it will be an indiscriminate thing. if i understand NCS correctly, they review a coin to see if it will be helped by their service. and also, i figure that toned/brilliant is an aspect of the hobby that comes and goes, and one of the times when it comes and stays is with maturity as a collector. that seems to be where i am, in the "maturing" stage!! the irony i see is that while it may seem at first as though all toned coins would be "conserved" back to brilliance, the majority will be "bodybagged" as inappropriate for the service and graded as is----another responsibility we'll delegate withour dollars. and i think in the long run the premier services will get it right most of the time.

i would imagine major redesign will be done in that time frame or shortly thereafter. new designs, a juggling of the denominations and maybe even different composition to reflect a different time period. for me, the best of both worlds would be more classic design themes with more modern composition/denominations. details at 11.

al h.

pmh1nic

Kranky

"Conservation: Johnny Cochrane would say "If you can't detect, you must accept"

You're killing me man .