When to cash silver in for numismatic coins?

erwindoc

Silver keeps running up and the silver eagles I have in addition to the britannias, maple leaf, libertad and pandas are looking like they could go towards a nice coin for the collection.

When are you going to cash out? 70? 75? 80? 100????

Morgan13

I think Silver will top off at $80 sit for a while at that and then possibly move up again.
I see no reason for it to decrease in value.

jmlanzaf

I started gradually cashing out at $50. A promise i made to myself a few years ago. U will continue gradually selling a long as it stays above 50. At $100, VG or lower Barber coinage jobs the melt.

Walkerguy21D

I already started, albeit just a trickle, as it seems like some irrational exuberance is occurring.
But two market adages to keep in mind; 1. markets can stay irrational for a long time, and 2. Bulls and bears can make money, but pigs eventually get slaughtered.

jmlanzaf

@Morgan13 said:
I think Silver will top off at $80 sit for a while at that and then possibly move up again.
I see no reason for it to decrease in value.

Here’s a clear, serious bearish (bear-case) argument for silver prices, the way a commodities analyst or skeptical investor would lay it out.

---

🐻 The Bear Argument for Silver

1. Silver is mostly an industrial metal, not a monetary one

Despite the “poor man’s gold” narrative, over 50–60% of silver demand is industrial:

• electronics
• solar panels
• brazing/solder
• medical & chemical uses

That means silver behaves more like copper than gold during slowdowns.

➡️ If global growth weakens, industrial demand falls → silver prices fall.

Gold often rises in recessions; silver often does not.

---

2. Silver supply is relatively inelastic and tied to base metals

Most silver is produced as a byproduct of:

• copper mining
• lead/zinc mining
• gold mining

This creates a bearish dynamic:

• Even if silver prices fall, silver supply does not drop much
• Miners keep producing silver as long as copper/zinc mining remains profitable

➡️ Price drops don’t quickly reduce supply, keeping downward pressure on prices.

---

3. Above-ground silver inventories are larger than bulls admit

Unlike oil or food, silver:

• doesn’t spoil
• is endlessly recyclable
• exists in large above-ground stockpiles (vaults, ETFs, industrial scrap)

While exact numbers are debated, the bear view is:

➡️ Silver shortages are overstated, and most “deficits” are accounting artifacts, not physical scarcity.

---

4. Solar demand growth may be overstated

A big bull thesis is solar-panel demand, but bears argue:

• Silver use per panel is declining (thrifting / substitution)
• Manufacturers actively reduce silver loading to cut costs
• Copper and aluminum substitutes are improving

➡️ Solar growth ≠ proportional silver demand growth.

---

5. Silver is vulnerable to substitution

Silver’s high price encourages substitution, especially in:

• electrical contacts
• conductors
• coatings

Copper, aluminum, and conductive polymers are “good enough” in many applications.

➡️ High silver prices destroy their own demand.

---

6. Silver underperforms gold in monetary stress

Historically:

• In inflation or panic, gold rallies first
• Silver often lags or even falls initially
• Silver rallies tend to be late, violent, and short-lived

Bears argue:

➡️ Silver is a leveraged trade, not a safe haven.

---

7. Paper markets dominate price discovery

Silver pricing is heavily influenced by:

• futures markets
• ETFs
• algorithmic trading

Bears claim:

• Physical shortages don’t easily translate into higher prices
• “Manipulation” claims are exaggerated
• Futures-set pricing caps upside

➡️ Physical demand ≠ immediate price response.

---

8. Silver is volatile in both directions — and usually loses long-term

On long time scales (inflation-adjusted):

• Silver has failed to beat inflation
• Peaks (1980, 2011) were brief and speculative
• Long drawdowns punish buy-and-hold investors

➡️ Silver is a trader’s metal, not a wealth-preserver.

---

🧠 The Bear’s Bottom Line

A silver bear would say:

“Silver is an industrial commodity with a monetary costume.
It suffers in recessions, gets substituted when expensive,
and only spikes during speculative manias.”

Bear conclusion:

• ❌ Not scarce enough
• ❌ Too industrial
• ❌ Too easily substituted
• ❌ Supply doesn’t respond fast enough
• ❌ Poor long-term real returns

---

If you want, I can also:

• give the bull case side-by-side
• compare silver vs gold vs copper
• explain why silver bulls and bears talk past each other
• map silver price behavior onto macroeconomic regimes

Just tell me where you want to push next.

jmlanzaf

@Morgan13 said:
I think Silver will top off at $80 sit for a while at that and then possibly move up again.
I see no reason for it to decrease in value.

And for balance

Here’s the clean, intellectually honest bull case for silver, stated the way a serious silver advocate or commodities strategist would present it — not hype, but the strongest version of the argument.

---

🐂 The Bull Case for Silver

1. Silver is uniquely dual-purpose: monetary and industrial

Unlike gold, silver has two independent demand engines:

• Monetary / investment demand (coins, bars, hedging)
• Industrial demand (electronics, solar, medical, chemical)

The bull argument is that this gives silver optionality:

• It benefits from inflation and monetary stress
• It also benefits from electrification and industrial growth

➡️ Few assets have this asymmetric upside.

---

2. Silver is historically cheap relative to gold

The gold–silver ratio is one of the oldest valuation metrics:

• Long-term historical average: ~15–20:1
• Modern average: ~50–60:1
• Recent extremes: 80–100+:1

Bulls argue:

➡️ Silver is dramatically undervalued vs gold, even if gold merely holds its value.

A reversion doesn’t require silver mania — just normalization.

---

3. Silver is being consumed, not just stored

Gold is hoarded. Silver is used up.

• Many industrial applications are uneconomic to recycle
• Silver ends up dispersed in electronics, coatings, chemicals
• Much historical silver has been permanently lost

➡️ Unlike gold, above-ground silver shrinks over time.

This makes silver more like energy metals than monetary metals.

---

4. Supply is structurally constrained

Silver supply has weak price responsiveness:

• ~70% is mined as a byproduct
• Primary silver mines are rare and declining
• New mine development is slow, capital-intensive, and risky

Bulls argue:

➡️ Even high prices cannot quickly increase supply, setting up potential shortages.

---

5. Energy transition is silver-intensive

Silver is critical to:

• solar photovoltaic cells
• EVs and charging infrastructure
• grid upgrades
• advanced electronics

While thrifting exists, bulls counter:

• Absolute demand still rises with scale
• Many substitutes reduce performance or durability
• Green mandates override cost sensitivity

➡️ The energy transition quietly tightens silver supply.

---

6. Silver outperforms gold late in monetary cycles

Historically:

• Gold moves first
• Silver moves later — but much faster

Examples:

• 1970s inflation cycle
• 2009–2011 QE era

Silver is volatile, but:

➡️ When confidence breaks, silver explodes upward, not gradually.

---

7. Physical market stress is increasing

Bulls point to:

• tightness in retail silver products
• rising premiums on coins and bars
• declining exchange inventories (COMEX, LBMA)
• delivery strain during demand spikes

The claim is not “manipulation” but:

➡️ Paper leverage far exceeds available physical silver, creating fragility.

---

8. Silver is under-owned

Compared to gold:

• Central banks do not hold silver
• Institutions allocate little to silver
• Retail ownership is tiny relative to population

Bulls argue:

➡️ Even a small capital reallocation into silver would overwhelm supply.

---

9. Silver is cheap in real terms

Inflation-adjusted comparisons show:

• Silver is far below its 1980 and 2011 real highs
• Even conservative inflation metrics show undervaluation
• In purchasing-power terms, silver buys far less than it historically has

➡️ Silver does not need to break records to be “expensive.”

---

🧠 The Bull’s Bottom Line

A silver bull would say:

“Silver is a critical industrial metal with monetary optionality,
shrinking above-ground supply, constrained mining,
and extreme undervaluation versus gold.”

Bull conclusion:

• ✔ Dual demand engine
• ✔ Structural supply constraints
• ✔ Energy-transition tailwinds
• ✔ Gold–silver ratio mispricing
• ✔ Asymmetric upside in monetary stress

---

⚖️ Where Bulls and Bears Fundamentally Disagree

Question	Bear View	Bull View
Is silver money?	Mostly no	Latent monetary asset
Supply flexibility	Adequate	Structurally constrained
Solar demand	Thrifting wins	Scale wins
Inventories	Ample	Overstated
Substitution	Easy	Performance-limited

---

Final neutral framing:

Silver is not a safe, steady asset.
It is a high-volatility, regime-dependent metal.

If the world trends toward:

• stable growth → bears likely win
• inflation, debt stress, energy buildout → bulls likely win

If you want, I can next:

• put bull vs bear into a single decision tree
• map silver price behavior to macro regimes
• give a chemist’s take on substitution limits
• or explain why silver debates never end

Just say the word.

jmlanzaf

@Morgan13 said:
I think Silver will top off at $80 sit for a while at that and then possibly move up again.
I see no reason for it to decrease in value.

And here's the decision tree

Here’s a clean, structured decision tree that shows when the bull case for silver wins and when the bear case wins. This is how macro traders and commodities desks actually think about it.

---

🌳 Silver Price Decision Tree

START: What macro regime are we entering?

---

🟢 Branch 1: Stable Growth / Disinflation

(Soft landing, productivity gains, controlled inflation)

Key signals:

• Falling or stable inflation
• Positive real interest rates
• Strong USD
• Healthy industrial production without supply stress

👉 Outcome:

🐻 BEARISH SILVER

Why:

• Industrial demand grows slowly
• Monetary hedging demand disappears
• Substitution pressures increase
• Gold outperforms silver

Expected silver behavior:

• Underperforms gold
• Trades sideways or down
• High volatility, low conviction

Winner: ❌ Silver bulls lose

---

🟡 Branch 2: Global Recession / Demand Shock

(Deflation scare, collapsing growth)

Key signals:

• Falling PMI
• Industrial slowdown
• Credit contraction
• Risk-off sentiment

👉 Outcome:

🐻 STRONGLY BEARISH (initially)

Why:

• Industrial demand collapses
• Silver trades like copper
• Liquidity crush hurts speculative assets

BUT → Watch closely:

If central banks respond aggressively with:

• QE
• rate cuts
• fiscal stimulus

➡️ the tree splits again:

---

🔀 Branch 2A: Recession + Aggressive Monetary Response

Transition phase:

• Gold rises first
• Silver lags initially

Then…

➡️ Silver flips violently bullish late-cycle

Outcome:
🐂 BULLISH (Delayed Explosion)

---

🔀 Branch 2B: Recession + Tight Policy

Outcome:
🐻 LONG BEAR MARKET

Winner: ❌ Silver bulls lose badly

---

🔵 Branch 3: Inflation Without Crisis

(Moderate inflation, controlled markets)

Key signals:

• CPI elevated but stable
• Real rates near zero
• No panic

👉 Outcome:

⚖️ MIXED / RANGE-BOUND

Why:

• Some hedging demand
• But no panic bid
• Industrial demand intact but unspectacular

Expected behavior:

• Silver chops violently
• Traders win, investors bleed

Winner: No one (except volatility traders)

---

🔴 Branch 4: Monetary Crisis / Currency Confidence Break

(Debt crisis, fiscal dominance, loss of trust)

Key signals:

• Negative real rates
• Currency debasement fears
• Gold breaking ATHs
• Sovereign debt stress

👉 Outcome:

🐂 STRONGLY BULLISH SILVER

Why:

• Gold rises → silver follows with leverage
• Investment demand overwhelms supply
• Physical market stress emerges
• Gold–silver ratio collapses

Expected silver behavior:

• Explosive upside
• Extreme volatility
• Short-lived but violent rallies

Winner: ✔ Silver bulls win big (if timed)

---

🟣 Branch 5: Energy Transition Acceleration

(Grid buildout, EV surge, solar expansion)

Key signals:

• Massive infrastructure spending
• Renewable mandates
• Grid upgrades
• Industrial metals bull market

👉 Outcome:

🐂 STRUCTURAL BULLISHNESS

Why:

• Absolute silver demand rises
• Supply cannot respond quickly
• Thrifting cannot offset scale

BUT:
This alone does not cause mania prices — it supports higher floors, not spikes.

---

🟠 Branch 6: Technological Substitution Breakthrough

(Unexpected materials science advance)

Key signals:

• Cheap copper-based or graphene conductors
• Major silver-free PV tech
• Regulatory approval

👉 Outcome:

🐻 LONG-TERM BEARISH

Why:

• Industrial demand collapses
• Silver reverts to niche monetary role
• Price ceiling permanently lowered

---

🧠 MASTER SUMMARY

Macro World	Silver Outcome
Stable growth	🐻 Bearish
Recession (early)	🐻 Bearish
Recession + QE	🐂 Bullish (late)
Inflation crisis	🐂 Very Bullish
Energy transition	🐂 Supportive
Tech substitution	🐻 Structural Bear

---

🎯 The Silver Truth (No Spin)

Silver only wins big in:

• monetary stress
• late-cycle inflation
• confidence breakdowns

Silver loses quietly in:

• stability
• productivity growth
• rational policy

It is not a buy-and-hold metal.
It is a conditional bet on chaos + industry.

---

If you want next, I can:

• overlay historical periods onto this tree (1970s, 2008, 2020)
• translate this into portfolio allocation rules
• give a chemist’s substitution reality check
• or build the gold vs silver vs copper decision tree

Just say the word.

Morgan13

@jmlanzaf that was a very educational read. I now know more than I did before. So right now the market is being artificially pushed up and not on stable ground.
I can believe it.
If people stop believing the prices will fall. I wonder how long it will last.

pcgscacgold

Samsung has developed new battery technology that will use roughly 1 kilogram of silver per car. Time frame is 2027. Cars will have 600 mile range and 80% charge in 9 minutes and 20 year life span. Could really ramp up silver use.

As I have mentioned before. I sold some off at $20 an oz. I sold more around $35 and received the same per roll. At some point I guess I will take some more in and see what it gets.

Cougar1978

Gold and Silver are in a bull market. Numismatic (non BV) coins seem stagnant. Slabbed bullion coins and Gold Type seeing huge demand. Been busy repricing stuff up where BV up lol.

jmlanzaf

@Morgan13 said:
@jmlanzaf that was a very educational read. I now know more than I did before. So right now the market is being artificially pushed up and not on stable ground.
I can believe it.
If people stop believing the prices will fall. I wonder how long it will last.

It would need more research to verify the details. But the AI did a pretty good job of covering a lot of bases.

DisneyFan

The problem is finding someone locally who will pay a fair price. I've not had any luck so instead I've been selling my SLV ETF in increments.

lkenefic

I started at $50 as well... sold around $25 face value of 90% and a couple of other coins to fund my $3 gold Princess purchase...

Rc5280

Selling off many pounds over the last several months - $45, $55, $65, and on...

MilesWaits

No no numismatic for me, thanks, siempre Bullion and slowly, slowly watching...

jesbroken

45 years ago I sold at $35 and felt bad when it went to $50. So this time I stood facing it again and now it's its $67. Goodby mercs, washingtons and Walkers. Raw only, no keys,
so far.
Jim

ProofCollection

Silver has a macro chart pattern 45 years in the making. $600 silver is coming. Foolish to sell any time soon.

Cougar1978

Cash in bullion for numismatic coins? Are you kidding? It’s the other way around lol.

Walkerfan

I cashed out all my junk silver and bullion back in 2011 when it hit $50. I think silver still has some room, so if I had any, now, I would hold,. I would be nervous, if I was sitting on a lot of gold, though. I think it has a propensity to drop from its current level, but that is purely speculation and opinion on my part, so who knows?? I wish I had a crystal ball.

Tom147

I'm not a stacker, just slowly accumulated over the last 60 years. I didn't sell during the Hunt Brothers run up or any of the other surges thru the years. I'll let my grandkids sell after I'm gone.

MaineJim

@Walkerfan said:
I cashed out all my junk silver and bullion back in 2012 when it hit $50. I think silver still has some room, so if I had any, now, I would hold,. I would be nervous, if I was sitting on a lot of gold, though. I think it has a propensity to drop from its current level, but that is purely speculation and opinion on my part, so who knows?? I wish I had a crystal ball.

$50 from 2012 is the equivalent of $70 today...
Jim

Walkerfan

@MaineJim said:

@Walkerfan said:
I cashed out all my junk silver and bullion back in 2012 when it hit $50. I think silver still has some room, so if I had any, now, I would hold,. I would be nervous, if I was sitting on a lot of gold, though. I think it has a propensity to drop from its current level, but that is purely speculation and opinion on my part, so who knows?? I wish I had a crystal ball.

$50 from 2012 is the equivalent of $70 today...
Jim

Thanks. Good point. Then I guess it was a pretty good decision. Now that I think about it, it was actually 2011, but who’s counting?

MilesWaits

No rush:

crazyhounddog

Save your silver. It will continue to rise is my opinion.

Relaxn

Sell physicall and buy calls in your Roth allowing you to avoid capital gains taxes (in the roth).

There is a form for gains from selling gold and silver that the IRS has if you are so inclined.

I sold some of each to clear debt... but otherwise I use Peace dollars for tips for the garbage guys, labor crew etc but
Not going to sell anymore.. As long as everyone's health stays proper...

A lot of numismatics are in bubble area
So you are IMHO selling tops and buying tops...

jmlanzaf

@MaineJim said:

@Walkerfan said:
I cashed out all my junk silver and bullion back in 2012 when it hit $50. I think silver still has some room, so if I had any, now, I would hold,. I would be nervous, if I was sitting on a lot of gold, though. I think it has a propensity to drop from its current level, but that is purely speculation and opinion on my part, so who knows?? I wish I had a crystal ball.

$50 from 2012 is the equivalent of $70 today...
Jim

Exactly. If you've been holding for 45 years waiting for the price break out, you lost a fortune. You pick your number and move on.

I've been hearing about $100 silver for 30 years. Some day, they will be right. But worse than a stopped clock, they are only right every 50 years.

That's true of everything. I recently sold one of my favorite coins: 1741 Venice coin with St. Mark lion. Love that coin. I paid $600 for it last year. I got offered $800 so I took it. Why? I'm too poor to own everything and, as I near retirement, I want my money working for me not me working to buy coins.

Does that make me a "bad" coin collector? Maybe. But everyone has a comfort level for their non-performing assets. I do not consider coins to be investments. So I play around with them, but I don't bury assets in them. YMMV

Kliao

I haven't sold any yet but may do so if there is a coin that I really want for my set.

ChrisH821

I might sell the small amount of .999 I have left, if I can sell it locally. Otherwise the majority of my silver now is in BU Peace and Morgan dollars. I enjoy those a lot more than .999.

FreeThinker

$50.00 in 1980 has the same buying power as nearly $200 today. Ir would seem silver has a long way to go to match its incredible run 45 years ago.

scotty1419

@Morgan13 said:
I think Silver will top off at $80 sit for a while at that and then possibly move up again.
I see no reason for it to decrease in value.

I dont know how you can say there'll be a peak at a very set figure with the dynamics for upward price growth not abating any time soon.

coinbuf

@DisneyFan said:
The problem is finding someone locally who will pay a fair price. I've not had any luck so instead I've been selling my SLV ETF in increments.

This, the best I have heard recently locally is $40 for $1 face. Not a bad price but not a number that makes me want to rush down. Besides I'm not a stacker, I might have 10-15 ounces of junk 90% stuff at best so not much impact anyway.

Downtown1974

Locked in at $69.50 an oz. for my bullion silver bars. Selling tomorrow afternoon. My buy-in averaged out to a tad over $18. I may use some of the proceeds for a numismatic coin but I’ll wait until after the holidays to decide.

MilesWaits

Hey now!

Swampboy

@lkenefic said:
I started at $50 as well... sold around $25 face value of 90% and a couple of other coins to fund my $3 gold Princess purchase...

That is my plan
👍

pcgscacgold

$4500 gold and $70 silver looks great. A fun time to be in the hobby.

cladking

@jmlanzaf said:

1. Silver is uniquely dual-purpose: monetary and industrial

Silver is far too valuable for money. But even if it were as plentiful as gold in Ft Knox it is too unstable for use as money. Sure you could set its value far above what supply and demand could cause and use it as money but then it would become too plentiful causing economic mayhem.

Silver is going much higher so there's no urgency to convert it to numismatic prizes but this conversion should be an ongoing process because the price is erratic and you want to lock in numismatic "profits" when they are available. You can always cull and upgrade later.

People should also trade back and forth with gold as the ratio goes up and down.

CommemDude

Silver and gold are money, pay no dividends but preserve purchasing power.

My stash is for my family and to protect their future so I no longer trade bullion.

I'm no survivalist, but I'm hedging against a time in the near future where paper becomes worthless and the new fiat has to once again be backed by gold and commodities.

GuzziSport

I had posted about this in the precious metals forum, but last week I sold an old sterling flatware set that was collecting dust for what I thought was a very healthy $4100…. My fiancée and I are beginning the renovation of a historic house (1890ish ex-school house), and I can use the money for that, I’m pleased with the sale. Could I have gotten more if I waited? Perhaps

logger7

There are many big financial bubbles now. It's anyone's guess when the game of musical chairs will be over with bubbles popping. Remember prior run-ups, the collapses were as impressive as the runs.

jmlanzaf

@logger7 said:
There are many big financial bubbles now. It's anyone's guess when the game of musical chairs will be over with bubbles popping. Remember prior run-ups, the collapses were as impressive as the runs.

The collapses are usually more impressive.

jmlanzaf

@GuzziSport said:
I had posted about this in the precious metals forum, but last week I sold an old sterling flatware set that was collecting dust for what I thought was a very healthy $4100…. My fiancée and I are beginning the renovation of a historic house (1890ish ex-school house), and I can use the money for that, I’m pleased with the sale. Could I have gotten more if I waited? Perhaps

Pick your price. Make your sale. Never look back.

Congratulations.

Peasantry

@jmlanzaf said:

Pick your price. Make your sale. Never look back.

Congratulations.

Jmlanzaf continues to console himself for selling at $50 😂😂

GoldFinger1969

If you are bullish on the silver price, then holding pure silver bullion or coins are best. The belief that leverage will accrue to numismatic coins appears to be a 1-time result of the lifting of gold and silver price controls in the 1970's.

Back then, you'd see PM's double or triple in price....but numismatics (at least the right ones) would go up 5-10 fold.

That has not been the case since the 1989 Coin Bubble.

If you want to hold silver but are sure we are headed for a sizeable correction, numismatics should go down less. Premiums are eroded in a rising market, expand in a falling market.

Meltdown

I sold 50oz at $42 simply because I wanted to take some profits... Do I wish I would have waited? Yes. I'm trying not to cry about it too much as I'm still sitting on the cash but I'm not even remotely interested in buying any of it back at this level.

jmlanzaf

@Peasantry said:
@jmlanzaf said:

Pick your price. Make your sale. Never look back.

Congratulations.

Jmlanzaf continues to console himself for selling at $50 😂😂

Nope.

I knew a guy who missed the peak in 1980. Held $300,000 in gold for 30 years as it turned into $100,000 in gold. Then he sold it all and ended up declaring bankruptcy.

No one is smart enough to know when the peak is. I sold at $40-something in 2011, near the peak. Just lucky. Didn't know it was peaking. Didn't care.

I'll be selling more this week at $70. Sold most of my gold at $3500. Very happy with all the sales.

mirabela

I did already, to some degree.

FreeThinker

@jmlanzaf said:

... Sold most of my gold at $3500. Very happy with all the sales.

Yep. I unloaded nearly all of my gold last August and didn't care one bit when it started to climb a couple of weeks later. Had been holding onto just under 12 oz. in modern gold commemoratives for years and was thrilled to realize more than double my original investment.

jmlanzaf

@FreeThinker said:

@jmlanzaf said:

... Sold most of my gold at $3500. Very happy with all the sales.

Yep. I unloaded nearly all of my gold last August and didn't care one bit when it started to climb a couple of weeks later. Had been holding onto just under 12 oz. in modern gold commemoratives for years and was thrilled to realize more than double my original investment.

Agree. I put the money in a mutual fund which is up 15%. It's all good.

Downtown1974

Just returned from dumping all of my silver bullion. Took some nice profits and made some room in the vault.
No plans to ever buy silver bullion again, but I did keep a memento to have one copy of each ASE.

The gold will remain in my collection no matter what happens. My youngest daughter has a vested interest in it, which I’m happy about.

Dave99B

I sold 7,000 AG-G Standing Liberty Quarters about four months ago. Yes, I'm still pissed!

Dave

logger7

@GoldFinger1969 said:
If you are bullish on the silver price, then holding pure silver bullion or coins are best. The belief that leverage will accrue to numismatic coins appears to be a 1-time result of the lifting of gold and silver price controls in the 1970's.

Back then, you'd see PM's double or triple in price....but numismatics (at least the right ones) would go up 5-10 fold.

That has not been the case since the 1989 Coin Bubble.

If you want to hold silver but are sure we are headed for a sizeable correction, numismatics should go down less. Premiums are eroded in a rising market, expand in a falling market.

That was one of Scott Travers' theories in some of his books about making money in numismatics. It is as untrue today as it was 20 years ago though I remember $20 Libs. having big premiums at certain times in the 2000s, like being worth $1800 when melts were around $1200. Those days are long gone.