Fernando Valenzuela RC PSA 10 Total Pop - 220 - HOF vote?
ndleo
Posts: 4,214 ✭✭✭✭✭
I don't follow early 1980's Topps baseball like I used to, but I was looking for a Fernando RC and noticed there are still 0 PSA 10 Dodgers Future Stars RC and only 22 Traded PSA 10s. Adding in Fleer RC PSA 10, there are only 220 total PSA 10s available?
Is that considered tough for these era baseball rookies? I recall there was a discussion on this board about the value of the first PSA 10 Dodgers Future Stars a long time ago, I am surprised one hasn't turned up yet.
Mike
1
Comments
I remember hearing one of the main issues with Fernando's 1981 Topps card is that is it almost always off center due to positioning on the sheet.
I’ve found them centered on the front but the back would be way off. Finding that in a10 may be one of the most difficult ever. Insanely difficult.
There also seems to be a lot of print imperfections (like smudge) on many Fernando rookies.
I just started researching the 1981 Fernando RCs in PSA 10. I can get a 1981 Fleer PSA 10 pretty easily but it looks like the Topps Traded is the much better looking card.
Maybe I'm still high from the Dodgers WS but I think Fernando may have a decent chance to get in this year. I had ChatGPT lay out a case for Fernando Valenzuela and it was a pretty solid case. Basically it boils down to borderline Stats vs Historical Legacy.
This next speculation is purely mine and not AI. I looked at the committee, they get 3 votes each. I'm guessing he has 7 votes locked. I'm guessing the pitchers and Perez are locks. I also think Arte, Kim Ng, and Reagins will vote for Fernando because of their SoCal connections.
That means he needs 5 of the remaining 9. I think there is chance Ozzie, Tram, and Yount may include Fernando because they played in his era. I think all of the players will shun the PED suspect guys. Of the 3 media members, I have to believe at least one will include Fernando. That is a viable path to 11. So one more owners/GM/media needs to include him.
Fergie Jenkins
Jim Kaat
Juan Marichal
Tony Pérez
Ozzie Smith
Alan Trammell
Robin Yount
Mark Attanasio (owner, Milwaukee Brewers)
Doug Melvin (former general manager)
Arte Moreno (owner, Los Angeles Angels)
Kim Ng (former general manager)
Tony Reagins (former general manager)
Terry Ryan (former general manager)
Steve Hirdt (longtime baseball historian and statistician)
Tyler Kepner (senior writer, The Athletic)
Jayson Stark (senior writer, The Athletic)
Mike Scioscia will probably make it in eventually if Fernando somehow falls short, so it's still likely to end up being a card needed by those with a HOF registry.
So long ago, I hoarded unopened 1981 Topps Baseball in all forms hoping to pull a PSA 10 Valenzuela, but never bothered to follow through. Now I have no Fernando and a bunch of rack, cello and wax boxes taking up space. Shucks.
I pulled this one from a wax pack in 1981at age 11 when I first started collecting. Every kid wanted this card at the time.
I made a post way back in 2007 about a nice rack case that I ripped - centering was great, but gloss/color was mediocre. Had some perfectly centered Fernandos but no luck..... Here is what I wrote:
**Grades were absolutely disastrous. Every common here was a 50/50 shot at a 10 (at least they were perfect under my loupe) - got ZERO 10's. Biggest bummer was the Raines RC's which were way nicer than the Fernando's (as I mentioned in an earlier post). Anybody want to buy a $600 1981 Topps set?
LINE # CERT # CARD CARD CO. CARD # CARD NAME VARIETY GRADE
35 09192567 1978 TOPPS 360 MIKE SCHMIDT N/A 9
36 09192568 1978 TOPPS 703 ROOKIE PITCHERS N/A 8
37 09192569 1981 TOPPS 32 KEN OBERKFELL N/A 9
38 09192570 1981 TOPPS 91 TIM STODDARD N/A 9
39 09192571 1981 TOPPS 100 ROD CAREW N/A 9
40 09192572 1981 TOPPS 108 BRUCE BENEDICT N/A 9
41 09192573 1981 TOPPS 137 HOSKEN POWELL N/A 9
42 09192574 1981 TOPPS 139 OSCAR GAMBLE N/A 9
43 09192575 1981 TOPPS 156 BOB McCLURE N/A 8
44 09192576 1981 TOPPS 173 BUMP WILLS N/A 9
45 09192577 1981 TOPPS 261 RICKEY HENDERSON N/A 6
46 09192578 1981 TOPPS 240 NOLAN RYAN N/A 8
47 09192579 1981 TOPPS 240 NOLAN RYAN N/A 8
48 09192580 1981 TOPPS 240 NOLAN RYAN N/A 9
49 09192581 1981 TOPPS 240 NOLAN RYAN N/A 9
50 09192582 1981 TOPPS 271 BILL CASTRO N/A 9
51 09192583 1981 TOPPS 293 CHARLIE LEA N/A 9
52 09192584 1981 TOPPS 302 DODGERS FUTURE STAR PERCNTE/SCIOSCA/VALNZUELA 9
53 09192585 1981 TOPPS 302 DODGERS FUTURE STAR PERCNTE/SCIOSCA/VALNZUELA 9
54 09192586 1981 TOPPS 302 DODGERS FUTURE STAR PERCNTE/SCIOSCA/VALNZUELA 9
55 09192587 1981 TOPPS 302 DODGERS FUTURE STAR PERCNTE/SCIOSCA/VALNZUELA 9
56 09192588 1981 TOPPS 347 HAROLD BAINES N/A 9
57 09192589 1981 TOPPS 365 GRAIG NETTLES N/A 9
58 09192590 1981 TOPPS 365 GRAIG NETTLES N/A 9
59 09192591 1981 TOPPS 387 PHIL NIEKRO N/A 9
60 09192592 1981 TOPPS 402 N.L. CHAMPIONSHIPS PHIL. SQUEAK PAST ASTROS 9
61 09192593 1981 TOPPS 402 N.L. CHAMPIONSHIPS PHIL. SQUEAK PAST ASTROS 9
62 09192594 1981 TOPPS 468 JOHNNY WOCKENFUSS N/A 9
63 09192595 1981 TOPPS 478 JUAN EICHELBERGER N/A 9
64 09192596 1981 TOPPS 479 EXPOS FUTURE STARS T.RAINES/R.RAMOS/B.PATE 9
65 09192597 1981 TOPPS 479 EXPOS FUTURE STARS T.RAINES/R.RAMOS/B.PATE 7
66 09192598 1981 TOPPS 479 EXPOS FUTURE STARS T.RAINES/R.RAMOS/B.PATE 8
67 09192599 1981 TOPPS 479 EXPOS FUTURE STARS T.RAINES/R.RAMOS/B.PATE 7
68 09192600 1981 TOPPS 479 EXPOS FUTURE STARS T.RAINES/R.RAMOS/B.PATE 8
69 09192601 1981 TOPPS 482 JIM GANTNER N/A 9
70 09192602 1981 TOPPS 515 ROBIN YOUNT N/A 8
71 09192603 1981 TOPPS 519 JOHN TAMARGO N/A 9
72 09192604 1981 TOPPS 519 JOHN TAMARGO N/A 9
73 09192605 1981 TOPPS 540 MIKE SCHMIDT N/A 9
74 09192606 1981 TOPPS 540 MIKE SCHMIDT N/A 9
75 09192607 1981 TOPPS 582 GAYLORD PERRY N/A 8
76 09192608 1981 TOPPS 597 RAFAEL LANDESTOY N/A 9
77 09192609 1981 TOPPS 597 RAFAEL LANDESTOY N/A 9
78 09192610 1981 TOPPS 620 DENNIS ECKERSLEY N/A 9
79 09192611 1981 TOPPS 636 AL HRABOSKY N/A 9
80 09192612 1981 TOPPS 636 AL HRABOSKY N/A 9
81 09192613 1981 TOPPS 638 CHECKLIST 606-726 N/A 9
82 09192614 1981 TOPPS 647 DICK DRAGO N/A 9
83 09192615 1981 TOPPS 647 DICK DRAGO N/A 9
84 09192616 1981 TOPPS 690 BOB WATSON N/A 9
85 09192617 1981 TOPPS 710 RON LeFLORE N/A 9
86 09192618 1981 TOPPS 710 RON LeFLORE N/A 9
87 09192619 1981 TOPPS 715 BILL MADLOCK N/A 9
88 09192620 1981 TOPPS 725 STEVE ROGERS N/A 9
Date Received: 11/09/2007
Date of Grades Posted: 11/15/2007
Date Shipped: 11/15/2007 **
Bosox1976
Brutal sub. Guess it goes to show that PSA was tough on subs in past too. I feel like everyone says that the graders were reasonable in past and horrible on older issues today. Definitely see the latter but maybe it wasn’t all great times back in day.
I’ve subbed a bunch of pack pulled 80s and have never gotten a 10. That’s past 5y tho and all star cards.
John
81 Topps in all sports are some of the most difficult to 10. Just had an order pop yesterday. I had 30 81s. I did receive one 10, the rest 8 and 9s. Very underrated set when it comes to 10s.
Thanks,
David (LD_Ferg)
1985 Topps Football (starting in psa 8) - #9 - started 05/21/06
In 2002 I opened a 1981 rack box to try and get a Harold Baines 10...I did get one and sold it to Dimitri Young as he was collecting all PSA 10 rookies...He had the most amazing collection of PSA 10 1950's-1980's PSA 10 card collection that I have ever heard about to this day...
https://www.cardboardconnection.com/dmitri-young-collection-sell
WOW K
LLLL...Great informational find!!! Man the 2012 prices seem AWFULLY low 
...The Rose, Reggie and Yastrzemski and maybe a lot of the others seem very very low even for the time period. $177.60 for the Baines PSA 10 is way way way lower from what i sold it to him for in 2002-2003 at like by a factor of 10 lower...must have been a recession in the card market in 2012...Rock on!
My choices are either the Fleer or Topps Traded in PSA 10. The last Fleer PSA 10 Fernando sold for $600. The last 1981 Topps Traded PSA 10 sold for around $3000 (early 2025). The Topps Traded image is superior to the Fleer, but at 5X the cost, is the Fleer a better value? While the 198 pop is higher than 22, it's not a huge number. At this point, can I assume there isn't a 4SC type PSA 10 flood coming on either card?
Images from PSA site and ebay, not mine!
I always preferred the photo in the Fleer over the Traded. Something very soothing about it.
That link to the Dimitri Young collection sale was interesting. Some values did not go up as much as others. His 1983 Fleer Wade Boggs went for $105.60 and just recently one sold on eBay for $208.50. Not a huge increase for 13 years.
On the other hand, the 1973 PSA 10 OPC Schmidt rookie for that sold for $4,467 must be worth many, many times that now.
WOOOWEEE...That is a Scruffy 1981 Traded Fernando PSA 10
no more than an 8 today. Still most of the hobby buys the flip not the card -- even if there are few more new folks every day that do the opposite.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
For the record - these pics were posted for reference only. I haven't decided which card to buy yet or where to buy it.
I got the Topps Traded image from an ebay listing at $7000. I can assure you that I will NOT be the buyer of that card at that price.
At first the 1981 Fleer reminds me of Darth Vader, but the more I look at it, it is a very nice front on head shot of Fernando. Looks like he is contemplating his next inning.
yes but the same folks also played in same era and Mattingly and Murphy both of who are probably stronger candidates.
Bottom line if the flood gates open and lets the Steriod/PED gang in then Mattingly,Murphy and Fernando will not make it this year nor in 3 years nor 3 years after that!
Probably be looking at 12-15 years at soonest. But if the PED flood gates do not open then I think Don, Dale and others have a decent shot - possibly even right now. This is my hope.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
He may be contemplating.....or "I ditched my entire life to come here and play this game and they couldn't even place a letter 'O' at the end of my first name."
The main argument that seperates Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly from Fernando is that both of them have already had a vote with past committees and failed to get 75%. This is the really the first time there has been a serious discussion about him since he got axed after 2 years on the ballot. I initially thought Fernando had no chance but after I heard some of the arguments from the Latin writers and fans, I've come around on considering his cultural impact on baseball.
Another writer mentioned that Harold Baines got in because La Russa and Reinsdorf politicked for him very hard. The current committee has Arte Moreno, who is Mexican-American. I think he will push very hard for Fernando even though he is a Dodger.
Also there is no way the committees will let the PED suspect players in when the writers failed to do it. All of the players on the committee played clean, so the PED "floodgate" scenario is nowhere close to reality.
Put ‘em all in!
I guess you can make a case for Fernando if you lean really heavily into cultural impact but, as a player, no way. Nobody thought of him as a HOFer when he was playing. Career 104 ERA+. His comps are Ken Holtzman and Camilo Pascual and nobody is making a case for them even though Pascual led the league in WAR twice and shutouts 3 times, more than Fernando did.
Pascual was better.
Fernandomania! was awesome, HOF not likely, Sad he passed so young. Hard to believe there are still 0 PSA 10 Dodgers Future Stars RC. That back centering is rough typically,. Fronts present nice.
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
I see two new voting rules this year:
Reading between the lines, this mean the PED suspect guys have zero chance of getting in unless the writers vote them in. Bonds and Clemens pulled in 4 or less votes last time and I don't think it will improve this time. They will be done by the 2032 class since I expect this will pull less than 5 in this ballot and be skipped on the next one before the HOF finishes off their candidacy.
Also I just realized that 3 Brewers are voting. I'm sure Robin Yount will make sure than Sheff is in the 4 or less camp.
This only leaves Donnie, Murph, Kent, Delgado, and Fernando as the only real candidates this year. I think the others are here to be taken out. One of the writers mentioned that the HOF management is a lot like the mafia. They will bend the rules to get outcome they want. For example, I think the 5% rule and the shortening of 15 to 10 years were done unilaterally by the Hall and the writers weren't consulted.
^ Interesting & plausible
I woke up this morning and the thought (epiphany?) hit me that only Delgado and Kent will get in.
They like to tease Mattingly & Murphy due to the fan bases as it generates interest but I think that is the committee's goal. While I'd like to be wrong I've a feeling we'll see the same thing again with them in 3 years.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
I saw some video on social media of Dale Murphy thanking his supporters for their big push during this voting cycle.
I thought to myself, "Dale does not look well."
A little searching of the web, and apparently he's been battling some health issues, and I'm not sure if it's confirmed or speculation, but kidney cancer was mentioned in my findings. If Dale is going to get in at all, this is probably when it would happen, I'd think.
There's a PSA 10 Topps cello pack with Fernando's RC on top in the BBCE Auction... about as close you can get for his Topps regular issue.
If the classy HOF management streak continues, they will wait until Donnie and Murph leave us and then induct. They have the timing of a fart.