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Silver has hit a triple top

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  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 19,799 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MWK said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Scroll up, a T-bill is not a bond.

    Absolutely correct. None of than the United States Treasury, issuer of the paper, classifies its debt into three categories: bills, notes, and bonds. A Treasury bill is most certainly debt but it is not a bond. If it were a bond, there would be no reason for the Treasury to introduce the bills and notes terminology.

    Bills, notes, and bonds are primarily distinguished on their tenor. I believe (but could be wrong) that all bills are no-coupon debt securities.

    T-bills are bonds. Just as convertibles, sedans and coupes are cars.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • coastaljerseyguycoastaljerseyguy Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭✭✭

    T Bills are 'fixed income debt', they are not bonds, just as sedans are not convertibles. Bonds pay interest plus the face value at maturity and their yield/price fluctuates with the prevailing interest rates. T Bills do not.

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 9,432 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 15, 2025 4:14PM

    @blitzdude said:

    @bluelobster said:

    @dcarr said:

    @RedneckHB said:

    @dcarr said:

    @taxmad said:
    SLV carries both a premium over NAV and the bid is less than the ask. You keep flogging that lie thinking you can speak it into truth. You can’t.

    .

    I have not (and would not) buy SLV - in spite of all the SLV spam presented here.
    But I am unfamiliar with the "bid" and "ask" levels for SLV. Can you elaborate a little ?

    Also, when you state "premium over NAV", is that the accumulation of the 0.5% per year evaporation of the underlying asset base (in other words, the operating fees) ?

    .

    Opinion without understanding is why we are where we are.

    .

    You have no idea where we are.

    A recent quote for SLV was $46.44 bid and $47.30 ask.
    That is a buy/sell spread of $0.86, which is close to 2%.
    @blitzdude has constantly touted SLV as a no-fee no-spread trading vehicle.
    But it appears that is not the case ?
    Each round-trip SLV trade incurs a 2% hit due to the spread ?
    And there is also the 0.5% per year holding fee.

    .

    What the ?
    The spread on $SLV is one penny I'm looking at it now on IB.

    Lets not let the facts get in the way, some see and or makeup only what they want to see. RGDS!

    .

    The bid/ask spread changes all the time. A large order might incur a wider spread than listed.
    At times when the underlying price is moving quickly (up or down), the spread is likely going to be wider.
    So if you urgently want to get in or out when things are moving fast, it will cost some more.

    .

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    From Treasury Direct:

    Treasury Bills
    We sell Treasury Bills (Bills) for terms ranging from four weeks to 52 weeks.

    Bills are sold at a discount or at par (face value). When the bill matures, you are paid its face value.

    You can hold a bill until it matures or sell it before it matures.

    Treasury Notes
    We sell Treasury Notes for a term of 2, 3, 5, 7, or 10 years.

    Notes pay a fixed rate of interest every six months until they mature.

    You can hold a note until it matures or sell it before it matures.

    Treasury Bonds
    We sell Treasury Bonds for a term of either 20 or 30 years.

    Bonds pay a fixed rate of interest every six months until they mature.

    You can hold a bond until it matures or sell it before it matures.

    !

    If I were in the financial business such as you are, coho - I'd be quite embarrassed to keep up this nonsense about T-Bills being bonds. I hope that you do better for your clients.

    Are you recommending bonds right now? After all, interest rates are expected to be going down.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:
    Silver just dropped by $2.50 in a matter of minutes (according to Kitco).
    How the market reacts after that will tell a lot.

    Why would you rely on quotes at 3 AM or so for accuracy ? The markets are thinly traded and prone to wild swings.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Nope. No evidence for either.
    Are you in Bizarro world?

    No, the Credit Default Spreads show very low chance of a default within 5 years:

    worldgovernmentbonds.com/sovereign-cds/

    The U.S. should be AAA-rated and the spread should really be < 10 beeps.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Why would you rely on quotes at 3 AM or so for accuracy ? The markets are thinly traded and prone to wild swings.

    News Flash! Silver is traded worldwide, and Asian markets aren't thinly traded, neither are the European markets. The wild swings are happening because of market shortages, leverage, and arbitrage. This isn't your LBMA/Comex-controlled market anymore.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 6,837 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Why would you rely on quotes at 3 AM or so for accuracy ? The markets are thinly traded and prone to wild swings.

    News Flash! Silver is traded worldwide, and Asian markets aren't thinly traded, neither are the European markets. The wild swings are happening because of market shortages, leverage, and arbitrage. This isn't your LBMA/Comex-controlled market anymore.

    Do u wanna buy me gutter? THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™
    Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Do u wanna buy me gutter? THKS!

    Why would I do business with a guy who constantly tries so hard to annoy his potential trading partners?

    Besides, if you were serious, you'd have it listed in the BST thread and in the BST Forum.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 37,907 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 15, 2025 9:26PM

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:
    Nope. No evidence for either.
    Are you in Bizarro world?

    No, the Credit Default Spreads show very low chance of a default within 5 years:

    worldgovernmentbonds.com/sovereign-cds/

    The U.S. should be AAA-rated and the spread should really be < 10 beeps.

    CDS's don't determine a debt bubble, this does:

    Does being a fiancial whiz with dollars make one an expert with gold?

  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,320 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Why would you rely on quotes at 3 AM or so for accuracy ? The markets are thinly traded and prone to wild swings.

    News Flash! Silver is traded worldwide, and Asian markets aren't thinly traded, neither are the European markets. The wild swings are happening because of market shortages, leverage, and arbitrage. This isn't your LBMA/Comex-controlled market anymore.

    Do u wanna buy me gutter? THKS!

    COPPER is gutter !

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 9,432 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 16, 2025 4:05AM

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @dcarr said:
    Silver just dropped by $2.50 in a matter of minutes (according to Kitco).
    How the market reacts after that will tell a lot.

    Why would you rely on quotes at 3 AM or so for accuracy ? The markets are thinly traded and prone to wild swings.

    .

    Like I wrote already, the important part is how it reacts after the drop.

    Even though the overnight price may be thinly-traded some of the time, when people wake up in the morning and see that the thin overnight price was down significantly, that can affect what they do.

    The aftermath has been a good sign - the silver price has held up pretty well and not continued to drop precipitously.
    I think the best thing for the silver market overall would be for silver to just maintain the low to mid $50s price for a while, rather than shooting up fast from here (and then falling back).

    .

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 9,432 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Do u wanna buy me gutter? THKS!

    Why would I do business with a guy who constantly tries so hard to annoy his potential trading partners?

    Besides, if you were serious, you'd have it listed in the BST thread and in the BST Forum.

    .

    This.

    .

  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 19,799 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coastaljerseyguy said:
    T Bills are 'fixed income debt', they are not bonds,

    Lol. You just defined a bond.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 19,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 16, 2025 4:42AM

    @jmski52 said:
    From Treasury Direct:

    Treasury Bills
    We sell Treasury Bills (Bills) for terms ranging from four weeks to 52 weeks.

    Bills are sold at a discount or at par (face value). When the bill matures, you are paid its face value.

    You can hold a bill until it matures or sell it before it matures.

    Treasury Notes
    We sell Treasury Notes for a term of 2, 3, 5, 7, or 10 years.

    Notes pay a fixed rate of interest every six months until they mature.

    You can hold a note until it matures or sell it before it matures.

    Treasury Bonds
    We sell Treasury Bonds for a term of either 20 or 30 years.

    Bonds pay a fixed rate of interest every six months until they mature.

    You can hold a bond until it matures or sell it before it matures.

    !

    If I were in the financial business such as you are, coho - I'd be quite embarrassed to keep up this nonsense about T-Bills being bonds. I hope that you do better for your clients.

    Are you recommending bonds right now? After all, interest rates are expected to be going down.

    You are the reason their are financial professionals.

    T-bills are bonds. No lies or misinformed opinion will change that fact.

    Go to Google or your favorite AI and ask the question.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    T-bills are bonds. No lies or misinformed opinion will change that fact.

    Maybe you should inform the Treasury Dept. that their website is wrong.

    Go to Google or your favorite AI and ask the question.

    Wow, you advocate believing everything you find on the net? Naive.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 19,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 16, 2025 5:26AM

    @jmski52 said:
    T-bills are bonds. No lies or misinformed opinion will change that fact.

    Maybe you should inform the Treasury Dept. that their website is wrong.

    Go to Google or your favorite AI and ask the question.

    Wow, you advocate believing everything you find on the net? Naive.

    Didn't you copy text from the interweb? How hypocritical. And from the Govt. Double hypocritical.

    But the Treasury website isn't wrong. You just dont understand it, as is typical, which you even stated in another thread about making assumptions.

    Stop embarrassing yourself.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • coastaljerseyguycoastaljerseyguy Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Economics & Accounting 101. At the highest level, there are several assets classes of investment. Cash & equivalents, Equity, Fixed Income or Debt Holdings, Real Estate, Commodities, Alternate Investments (Private Placements & other esoteric stuff), and true Other (Cars, Wine, Coins, Art).

    You are associating the word 'Bond' as the highest level and yes most folks know what you are referencing. But its not, discounted debt is not the same as bond debt. Actually, from an accounting standpoint, short term T- Bills are Cash Equivalents from a Balance Sheet perspective, like short term commercial paper, Money Markets, etc. If you asked you broker or advisor to buy US Govt Bonds, he will not reference or buy any T-bills.

    Semantics yes, but not accurate.

  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 19,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 17, 2025 11:14AM

    @coastaljerseyguy said:

    You are associating the word 'Bond' as the highest level and yes most folks know what you are referencing. But its not, discounted debt is not the same as bond debt.

    So zero-coupon (discounted debt) bonds are not bonds?

    BTW....

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • coastaljerseyguycoastaljerseyguy Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Maybe some corporate are, but not US T Bills. T Bills are fixed income debt instruments like numerous other instruments. A CD is a debt instrument but it is not a bond either. As noted above, they differ from Treasury bonds in maturity and pricing. Folks can use debt and bonds inter-changeably, and we know what you are inferring, but you challenged folks here to say US T Bills & Bonds are the same.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If coho can't understand that the primary source for the definition of a bond is the ultimate authority for what a bond is, then he is only here to create confusion and argumentation. He has proven his motivations over and over again.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • AzurescensAzurescens Posts: 2,853 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Do u wanna buy me gutter? THKS!

    Why would I do business with a guy who constantly tries so hard to annoy his potential trading partners?

    Besides, if you were serious, you'd have it listed in the BST thread and in the BST Forum.

    Silver could be $500/oz and he would still be here getting paid to disrupt communities and discourage people from buying metals.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Bills are traditionally considered < 1 year.....Notes are considered up to 7 years.....bonds are 10, 20, and 30.

    The focus changes over time, and the words are interchangeable to an extent. When I started out in the 1980's, the 30-year bond was the focus, not the 10-year. In the 1960's, it was the 20-year bond.

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 9,432 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Is this a bond ?

  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 19,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 18, 2025 5:41AM

    @coastaljerseyguy said:
    Maybe some corporate are, but not US T Bills. T Bills are fixed income debt instruments like numerous other instruments. A CD is a debt instrument but it is not a bond either. As noted above, they differ from Treasury bonds in maturity and pricing.

    So I just bought a zero-coupon debt instrument maturing in 2 months. Was it a bond or a bill?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 19,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 18, 2025 5:43AM

    @jmski52 said:
    If coho can't understand that the primary source for the definition of a bond is the ultimate authority for what a bond is, then he is only here to create confusion and argumentation. He has proven his motivations over

    Why do you have so much trouble with facts?

    You still claiming we had a recession in 2022?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • coastaljerseyguycoastaljerseyguy Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Nope govt gave away free money and caused inflation issues.

  • DisneyFanDisneyFan Posts: 2,582 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:
    Is this a bond ?

    Yes - a one year coupon bearer bond. Have fun taking it to your bank and collecting the $51.00 owed to you. However, it may have more value as a collectible.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Someone needs to notify the US Treasury that coho's AI is calling them out on their definition of a bond. Well, I'm certainly glad that is getting cleared up! Call Bessent and let him know!

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 9,432 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 18, 2025 8:47PM

    @DisneyFan said:

    @dcarr said:
    Is this a bond ?

    Yes - a one year coupon bearer bond. Have fun taking it to your bank and collecting the $51.00 owed to you. However, it may have more value as a collectible.

    Yes, it is arguably a bond, although the US Treasury does not classify it as "Bond", or a "Treasury Note". It is classified as a "Certificate of Indebtedness" in the "Tax [anticipation]" group. In other words, it is backed by (and will be paid by) future expected tax revenues. The particular certificate issue is listed in the "Statement of the Public Debt" (red highlighted line - right click on the image to open in a new tab to view larger):

  • DisneyFanDisneyFan Posts: 2,582 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A certificate of indebtedness was a predecessor to the modern Treasury bill (T-bill), which officially replaced it in 1934. While both were short-term government securities, they had different structures for how they paid investors

    Certificates of Indebtedness were sold at face value (par) and paid investors a fixed interest payment (a "coupon").

    Treasury Bills (T-Bills) are sold at a discount to face value and do not have a coupon payment. Investors receive the full face value at maturity, with the difference being the return.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2025 8:34AM

    Treasury Bills (T-Bills) are sold at a discount to face value and do not have a coupon payment. Investors receive the full face value at maturity, with the difference being the return.

    In addition to duration, isn't that one of the distinctions between a bill and a bond?

    Is a dollar bill a bond? Dollar bills, T-bills = same thing. Both are short term instruments of US debt with no coupon, the only difference is the duration and a tiny bit of interest.

    It's not rocket science.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,469 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I dunno... with all the debate and confusion between 'bonds' , 'bills', notes, etc.... (and other 'paper' pushed by some on this forum), just holding physical gold and silver seems so much simpler and more prudent. JMO.

    ----- kj
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What could possibly be the motivation for continuing in an attempt to confuse and obfuscate? Maybe selling bonds becomes easier if people don't know the difference between a T-bill and a bond.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    What could possibly be the motivation for continuing in an attempt to confuse and obfuscate? Maybe selling bonds >becomes easier if people don't know the difference between a T-bill and a bond.

    Unless someone is being lied to about the term of the obligation, this is mostly irrelevant semantics.

    As long as the yield is quoted correctly, incorporates any call or OAS calculation, the person will be fine. If they want actual coupon interest, they need to know what they have bought.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A dollar bill is NOT a bond. That's ridiculous.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A dollar bill is NOT a bond. That's ridiculous.

    It's not much more ridiculous than calling a T-bill a bond.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2025 9:12AM

    Unless someone is being lied to about the term of the obligation, this is mostly irrelevant semantics.

    As long as the yield is quoted correctly, incorporates any call or OAS calculation, the person will be fine. If they want actual coupon interest, they need to know what they have bought.

    Yes, all true. That's my point. That's exactly why I question the motivation.

    I refer you to the account that DCarr provided regarding his parents.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It is slightly remarkable that this discussion of the meaning of “bond”has gone on for so long! 🤣 A T-bill of course is a different category of instrument (as defined by the Treasury) from a Treasury bond. However, from the perspective of finance and investing, a T-bill is simply a short term zero coupon bond.

    Higashiyama
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    from the perspective of finance and investing, a T-bill is simply a short term zero coupon bond.

    from the perspective of finance and investing, one might also consider it a cash equivalent.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,124 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    from the perspective of finance and investing, a T-bill is simply a short term zero coupon bond.

    from the perspective of finance and investing, one might also consider it a cash equivalent.

    By accounting rules…yes.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,788 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    A dollar bill is NOT a bond. That's ridiculous.
    It's not much more ridiculous than calling a T-bill a bond.

    Nobody I know calls a T-bill a bond. OTOH, a 20-year Treasury Bond issues in 2006 is effectively a Treasury bill, albeit with coupon payments.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,788 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2025 6:38PM

    @jmski52 said:
    I refer you to the account that DCarr provided regarding his parents.

    Right, and while some questionable choices were made, none of us were in the room at the time they were made. I never heard of selling an insurance policy to elderly people without fixed premiums. Annuities are fine -- esp. for older folks -- but you need to know the specifics. And we don't know what the rest of the allocation was.

    If fraud was done, or the CFP was incompetent, then you can sue or go to arbitration. BTW, the CFP exams are very blase and easy to pass....anybody dealing with a CFA for financial planning is in good hands (which is UNLIKELY as most CFAs work on Wall Street in portfolio management or investment banking). The CFA exams are much more rigorous and even folks with MBAs have had difficulty passing all 3 exams.

    I passed all 3 sequentially on my first tries. :)

    I would estimate <1% of CFPs have CFAs.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 19, 2025 7:22PM

    Nobody I know calls a T-bill a bond.

    That's my point. coho, aka RedneckHB has been telling everyone in this forum that a T-bill is a bond, for several months now. I'm not sure what his point might be.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • Morgan WhiteMorgan White Posts: 11,354 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Nobody I know calls a T-bill a bond.

    That's my point. coho, aka RedneckHB has been telling everyone in this forum that a T-bill is a bond, for several months now. I'm not sure what his point might be.

    I'm just waiting for someone to call a T-bill a gutter bond.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm just waiting for someone to call a T-bill a gutter bond.

    I don't understand why you would say that. It only devalues any meaningful discussion further than it already is.

    Frankly, the shills who visit this forum only to deride and belittle those of us who invest in precious metals as a means to secure financial independence outside of the corrupt system should be encouraged to leave.

    There's a big difference between contributing vs. constantly undermining those of us who try to provide good information for the benefit of other participants.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,320 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Higashiyama said:
    It is slightly remarkable that this discussion of the meaning of “bond”has gone on for so long! 🤣

    It’s been BORING AF!
    Not to mention one CAN NOT melt paper... So WHOOOOO CARES lolz

    COPPER is gutter !

  • Morgan WhiteMorgan White Posts: 11,354 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    I'm just waiting for someone to call a T-bill a gutter bond.

    I don't understand why you would say that. It only devalues any meaningful discussion further than it already is.

    It was sarcasm. You have a gutter troll running rampant in the forum.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,450 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It was sarcasm. You have a gutter troll running rampant in the forum.

    My mistake. He doesn't need any encouragement, and it could be that use of his terminology might be counterproductive.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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