Anyone else having mental issue buying pre33

Ppp

I have been buying and selling gold and silver during the run up with no issue. My inventory has increased, which I don’t mind, because my buying has out paced my selling.

I received an offer from a friend of mine to buy ten raw $2.5 gold Indians as a lot and I am having a tough time pulling the tigger. The Indians have been tested and looked at to confirm authenticity but i will double check. Some could have been cleaned. The years are: 1908, 1910, 1911, 1912, 3-1914, 1927, 1928, and 1929.

In general the coins are xf/Au and even if a couple are high xf or high Au the prices don’t change much.

Melt is $437- (using gold spot of $3615)
Bid for Au 50 is $542 (except 1914 is $552)
Cpg for Au50 is $700 (except for 1914 is $725)

For some strange reason I am having an issue pulling the trigger at his $465 ea (6% over melt) price.

I probably will buy them because I see the risk vs. reward to be minimal but I find my hesitation strange. I think it’s because I remember buying these types of coins for a lot less a few years ago but the same could be said for all the Gold eagles I buy regularly.

I wonder is anyone one else having the same type of feelings/hesitation buying in today’s environment?

ms71

To me, buying a batch of raw $2½ Indians is inviting trouble. Even relatively inexperienced collectors (i.e., potential buyers) know that the series is rife with coins of questionable authenticity. Buy only if you think the likely return on your investment is worth the possible complications.

dcarr

The coins look pretty good to me (all appear to be genuine). The 1929 and maybe the 1910 look polished. But the rest appear to be pretty nice EF-AU.

There seems to be more buyers for these types of smaller gold pieces (because they are affordable compared to heavier coins).

In buying these, the only significant pitfall I could see would be a sudden drop in the price for gold (but I think a significant decline is unlikely at this time).

PS:
One or two of the 1914 coins has a "D" mint mark (which makes them worth a small amount less than a 1914 Philadelphia).
It is hard to tell which dates have a "D" because the obverse and reverse images appear to be shuffled.
But if the 1911 is one with a "D", then it is worth a lot more, of course.

Downtown1974

I love pre-33 gold…it’s definitely my main collecting focus. But, at these price levels, I’m just holding. Maybe adding a new $2.50 Indian to my set now and then but otherwise, I’m just happy with what I have.

Manorcourtman

I have been accumulating old gold and will continue buying. I have only one golden rule I use in buying. It must be certified no matter the grade or condition. I ran into several counterfeit Indians 20 years ago and learned my lesson. No raw gold under any circumstance. I may miss out on some profits but piece of mind and an experts opinion is well worth it to me.

PerryHall

This series has been heavily counterfeited and they used real gold of the proper weight and fineness. Their profit came from the numismatic premium which was fairly significant when gold was a lot less expensive. Are you an expert authenticator? Many of the counterfeits were extremely well made.

PerryHall

@dcarr said:
The coins look pretty good to me (all appear to be genuine).

You were able to authenticate those coins from those pics?

Ppp

Thank you for the comments.
Yes, I know this series is heavily counterfeited using the right gold content. I don't consider myself an expert in anything but I am pretty good at finding $2.5 Indian fakes.
I know the buyer very well and I know over the years the dealers that sold them to him. Regardless, I will evaluate them for myself.
I too normally only like to buy graded pre33. In this case being priced so close to melt and knowing the seller are the reasons I am considering the purchase if I conclude they are real.

hummingbird_coins

My big takeaway from the ANA counterfeit detection class was to look for tool marks in the recessed area of the Indian's neck. Hope that helps.

skier07

I think you can throw the price guides away and base your decision on the price of gold. I would also be very reluctant to buy raw $2.5 Indians. I think (not 100% sure) that price guides assume the coin is graded by a TPG.

PerryHall

@hummingbird_coins said:
My big takeaway from the ANA counterfeit detection class was to look for tool marks in the recessed area of the Indian's neck. Hope that helps.

The back of the Indian's neck is the deepest area on this coin. Counterfeiters usually cast their dies using a genuine coin as a model. Being the deepest area of the design, the back of the neck sometimes traps microscopic air bubbles resulting in bumps showing in this area on the finished coin so the counterfeiter will usually tool away the roughness on their die in this area.

logger7

I'd ask about the original origin of the coins if the seller knows, if they've been in a family since prior to 1970 or so very likely they'd be genuine. The buy price cited is very reasonable.

And on the topic of "...Anyone else having mental issue buying pre33"; you could look for a coin psychologist, many numismatists wear many hats and are experts not just on coins but the psychology of collecting.

lkenefic

As others have already mentioned, this series is heavily counterfeited, so I'd tke a gamble and get them certified if you're not 100% sure they're legit.... and FWIW, I can't tell from photos. I mention this because I had a little "scare" over the quarter eagle I bought raw for my type set... I ultimately sent it in and it came back AU58, but a bit of needless anxiety.

Also, check the reverse of the 1911... is that a "D" mintmark? If so, it's worth substantially more than the others in the group... good luck!

coinbuf

To your question about hesitation on pulling the trigger, I am still buying but at a reduced rate due to the prices. I just bought from a forum member yesterday. If the price is workable and I have the funds available I'm in. But I can certainly understand your thoughts, I have a raw set of 2 1/2 indians that I bought for around $125 each, other than the 11-D of course. Prices today can be a sticker shock.

TwoSides2aCoin

I think it took me about 30 years to spend over $100 on a coin. After that , it was another 15 years before spending $1000 on a coin. It wasn’t until the past couple years that I spent $10,000 for a coin. But yeah, in the past year, I’m questioning why I don’t go back into the trades or pick up a part time job and forget about all of this. Who invented this hobby ? They were cruel and unusual.

ChrisH821

I've had a mental issue buying it since gold was at $1600. We can see how that worked out Now I have a 7070 gold page that will remain roughly half done.

crazyhounddog

I try to stay away from buying raw gold. I agree it’s just inviting trouble. Unless I can see them in hand and I have metal spectrometer.

oldabeintx

I have an issue buying gold purely as an investment. I have increased the gold portion of my collection so kind of an investment/numismatic play. Each piece fits somewhere.

DisneyFan

Will your friend agree in writing to buy back any coins that do not PCGS?

blitzdude

@PerryHall said:
This series has been heavily counterfeited and they used real gold of the proper weight and fineness. Their profit came from the numismatic premium which was fairly significant when gold was a lot less expensive. Are you an expert authenticator? Many of the counterfeits were extremely well made.

That's why I have always only purchased raw pre33 at melt. So long as the composition is correct that is my main concern. And for the record there are more than a few counterfeits that have made it into TPG holders. RGDS!

Ppp

I checked put the coins and they all appear real to me. A few were cleaned and no the 1911 did not have a D.

I would not have them graded however, we agreed that he should hold on to them because several local dealers would only pay $425- ea (under melt) and one was willing to sell me his stock at about $450 each which is less than what he was offering to sell his to me.

I decided to stay in my lane and continue to purchase graded pre 33 and raw/graded AGEs.

Thank you again for all your comments.

Walkerfan

I had this problem $1k an oz ago! lol Maybe I’m bitter for not buying when I should have? Maybe I’m living in the past? But, I just can’t seem to pull the trigger on any gold at this level. I have no desire to…

rte592

I like Indians, but right now they can be had for melt.
Why pay more?
If it's a friend request and you want to do him a favor, maybe split the difference with him.
I just let go of 1200 grams jewelry making sterling at $1 a gram.
It was to a friend of mine and he bought 1100 grams I had at $1 gram a few months back.

PeakRarities

@Ppp said:
I checked put the coins and they all appear real to me. A few were cleaned and no the 1911 did not have a D.

I would not have them graded however, we agreed that he should hold on to them because several local dealers would only pay $425- ea (under melt) and one was willing to sell me his stock at about $450 each which is less than what he was offering to sell his to me.

I decided to stay in my lane and continue to purchase graded pre 33 and raw/graded AGEs.

Thank you again for all your comments.

Glad you came to a decision, I just have to chime in that your local dealer sounds like he has pretty good prices and I would check in regularly to see what else is in stock. Finding 2.5 indians at $10 or $15 over melt is about the lowest I've seen. If someone posted 20 of them at $450 in the pre-33 facebook group right now theyd be gone in 60 seconds.

jfriedm56

@Ppp, I understand your reluctance to buying uncertified gold and I would be hesitant also. Ungraded, uncertified is risky at best, but you may get lucky and they may be real. You have to weigh risk/reward. My last gold purchase was last year (August), when gold was hovering around $2750. an ounce. I was back and forth about the purchase, but pulled the trigger at melt, and as we all know, the metals have gone up significantly since then. That may have been my last gold purchase for a while. Gold to $5000? Bought these at melt.

BillJones

I formed this set back in the late 1980s. My guideline was to pay around $200 per coin, exclusing the 1911-D. I never thought that it would be worth the melt price, but the numismatic value is mostly gone.

But, yes with the price of gold at over $3,600 an ounce, I am not comfortable with that. The numismatic value has left behind for many gold pieces at that price.

cladking

It is remarkable that such highly desirable and tougher coins like these can be obtained for only 6% over face value. Yes, there are a lot of very desirable coins now (mostly gold and some silver) that can be had for low premiums but 2 1/2 dollar indians have got to be among the leaders. Most holders of gold would be well advised to at least consider swapping into such coins to protect their investment. It's a great hedge and there are many ways to play it.

PerryHall

@cladking said:
It is remarkable that such highly desirable and tougher coins like these can be obtained for only 6% over face value. Yes, there are a lot of very desirable coins now (mostly gold and some silver) that can be had for low premiums but 2 1/2 dollar indians have got to be among the leaders. Most holders of gold would be well advised to at least consider swapping into such coins to protect their investment. It's a great hedge and there are many ways to play it.

I think you mean "bullion value' or "melt value" rather than "face value".

jmlanzaf

@PerryHall said:

@cladking said:
It is remarkable that such highly desirable and tougher coins like these can be obtained for only 6% over face value. Yes, there are a lot of very desirable coins now (mostly gold and some silver) that can be had for low premiums but 2 1/2 dollar indians have got to be among the leaders. Most holders of gold would be well advised to at least consider swapping into such coins to protect their investment. It's a great hedge and there are many ways to play it.

I think you mean "bullion value' or "melt value" rather than "face value".

Nah. He's just a low-baller.

jmlanzaf

@cladking said:
It is remarkable that such highly desirable and tougher coins like these can be obtained for only 6% over face value. Yes, there are a lot of very desirable coins now (mostly gold and some silver) that can be had for low premiums but 2 1/2 dollar indians have got to be among the leaders. Most holders of gold would be well advised to at least consider swapping into such coins to protect their investment. It's a great hedge and there are many ways to play it.

The headline price also counts.