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Are the best sportscards in the world in the PSA Set Registry?
jrinck
Posts: 1,321 ✭✭
I've drooled over many a set in the vast PSA Set Registry and believe I can confidently state that the best sportscards in the world can be found within it.
But I could be wrong. Does anyone know of any truly spectacular cards out there that aren't in the Registry? Why wouldn't they be?
But I could be wrong. Does anyone know of any truly spectacular cards out there that aren't in the Registry? Why wouldn't they be?
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I am an avid collector of 1950-60's PSA hockey and some of the cards are just not out there. In comparing the number of graded cards to baseball it is not even close, but ocviously there were more baseball printed. But even in comparing to football, hockey is just extremely low in slabbed material.
I am often tempted to buy KSA or SGC graded cards to help in finding tough cards, but I will just keep waiting for PSA cards to come to market.
It is even tough to find high grade raw hockey material.
As my only example, consider this: How many cards are graded PSA 10 from 1900 to 1970? I don't have an exact number -- but I think it is something like 2,500. Of that number -- how many of those PSA 10's are listed on the Registry?
Especially from a pre-war perspective, there are perhaps three cards from pre-1948 on the Registry in PSA 10 -- and there are many more out there. The vast majority of pre-war PSA 9's are not registered, either.
MS
Take away the 1915 Cracker Jack set (which was available in complete set form) -- most collectors are immediately suspicious of any carmel cards grading over Near Mint. Many sets simply don't have more than two or three currently existing examples that would grade out as NM/MT or even MINT.
Even one of baseball's bigger collectors, Brian Seigel, primarily only collects NM/MT examples -- he doesn't think 9's are worth the premium, and even putting together NM/MT Hall of Famers from the turn-of-the-century is a monumental task that most of our current set registry participants (myself included) couldn't truly comprehend.
MS
It's tough to drop several grand for one card when you're building an entire graded set, but it's much easier to do so if you only buy a handful of cards. I think that will continue to limit the registration of big $ PSA 10s.
I know a collector here in Louisville, KY who has a complete high end ungraded Topps run from 1952 - 64.
I have seen the Mantle Rookie and it is at least a 7.
Many of the old time collectors dont even like the idea of grading at all.
PSA should concentrate on how to pull those cards into their market.
This why I do not buy PSA 9 graded cards earlier than 1960. (Unless they are %50 SMR)
If some of these old time collectors go graded the POPs will rocket and you will find
that you massivley over paid.
Loves me some shiny!
While people may THINK that they have a high quality set, I just say wait until they TRY to get the cards graded and then we'll really see what they have. With all of the altering that goes on now (including pressing out wrinkles), I believe that, while not infallible, the grading adds peace of mind to your sets and puts them on a higher plane than ungraded sets.
I have seen collections that will blow your mind. PSA has not even scratched the surface in pulling in high quality cards to be graded. I estimate that for every graded 8-9 in the Registry there are 10x to 100x that many more cards safely tucked away in card savers, screw-downs, 9-pocket pages and vending boxes. A great majority of these cards will NEVER find their way to PSA or any of the other grading companies. The collectors who own them are either (a) die-hard purists who would never trust or want to send their cards to a total stranger, pay $7-$25 to have that stranger tell them what they already know, and have the card returned to them in a hermetically-sealed container suitable for Funk-and-Wagnall's back porch, or (b) have never heard, nor give a rat's posterior about card grading companies.
Do these collectors have some trimmed, altered or otherwise bad cards in their sets? Probably. But no one may ever know, now will they?
To drive home my point, I pose the following: Which is more valuable: (A) one unopened pack of 19xx Topps or (B) those same cards, out of the pack, sent to PSA for grading. If you answered (B), you've never opened a pack of vintage cards. The odds of pulling even one centered card with no wax or gum stains, suitable for grading 8 or 9 is somewhere between winning the lottery and being struck by lightning.
So to the vintage, raw card collector, his set will always be worth more than a graded set in the same condition. And, I predict, that before this generation passes away, everyone else will come to the same conclusion. Eventually, raw & pristine will hold more value than cheap plastic grading.
If anyone doubts this, ask yourself this question: How many Topps cards did the TCG company print each year from say 1957-1975? I have met many people who either knew a Topps distributor or uncovered a "find" somewhere that they latched onto. The cards are out there. Problem is, nothing we can build will get them to give up their cards. Especially not a grading card company.
Are you saying for every psa 8 or 9 there is 10 to 100 times that many similiar quality cards out there ungraded? I can't imagine the number being anywhere near that high. There are definitely a lot of ungraded cards in high quality but I wouldn't think quite that high of ratio especially from 63 and back.
Wayne
God bless them for that! This will ensure a steady trickle of raw high grade sets over time as they decide to divest from their holdings. I'll have to keep my eye on those Mastro auctions
Never say "NEVER". Remember, nobody owns their cards forever. We only borrow them for as long as we can cheat death. I doubt the people who inherit these cards will feel the same passion for cards as the previous owner did.
As for raw cards being worth more than PSA graded versions, it depends on the grade your talking. Certainly high grade raw cards are/will be worth more than PSA 7 graded cards in most cases. In some cases, high grade raw cards will be worth more than high population PSA 8 graded cards. But I doubt high grade raw cards will ever carry a premium over PSA 9s for vintage. If you compare like grades, e.g. NM-MT raw vs NM-MT 8 graded, I'd think the graded version would always be worth more since it's been certified to be unrestorated. The only way the NM-MT raw card would be worth more is if somebody thought it could grade out a 9. I'm not sure who would pay a premium to have an equal grade raw card. If a graded card was cheaper than a raw card, I'd buy the graded card and crack it out of the holder. Then I'd have the benefit of the raw card I desired, plus the confidence the card is authentic.
I'm not a gambler whatsoever, but I will bet you whatever you want that your analysis in this area is dead wrong. Show me one legitimate example of where the raw version of a card or set ever pulls a higher price than the PSA graded version. Any savvy buyer factors in the chance of alteration, hidden an unhidden things that can downgrade a card such as surface creases, centering, etc. and bids the card accordingly. If this were not so, the huge auction houses such as Mastro and Superior wouldn't bother to pull certain key cards out of raw sets they auction so that they can be graded to bring validity to the "value" of the set they hope to sell for as high a price as possible. You sound an awful lot like the wistful voices who pooh-poohed grading years ago and called it a fad that wouldn't stand the test of time. Well the fact is, grading has leveled the playing field and made people like me unafraid to invest large sums of money without the fear of getting burned. I really don't see where you have any empirical evidence to back up such a claim.
Vargha,
Thank you for posting before me, and saying what I wanted to say, but in a much better way. I only collect one pre-war set, but when I buy raw cards (usually commons), I can usually name the price I want to pay. I have yet to see any card in my set (1940 Play Ball), that is raw and advertised as NM/MT or better, sell for close to what a PSA 8 or 9 does.
I could only see a very popular raw set, where there is substantial competition amongst collectors and money to burn, bringing near what a graded set in like condition does. I believe it will be the die-hard purists who will be in for the rude awakening when they eventually sell their raw collections.
Just my 0.02
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
Easily.
I've seen ordinary people walk up to a table at a regional show with boxes of cello packs. One example about a year ago was 1971. It was the series Rose & Carew is in. He claimed to have similar boxes from other series. His next door neighbor growing up was a Topps distributor.
Another example was a older fellow who had a antique trunk full of 1961 Topps. The potential buyer counted 21 Roger Maris (#2) cards on top with literally dozens of high numbers neatly stored in cardboard shoeboxes. That was just one guy in one small town in one state outside the northeast.
Here's another one. There is a strange old hermit in a small hick town in southern Kentucky. He lives in a shack by a river that doubles as a junkyard on weekends. Looks kind of like Sanford & Sons. This old hermit used to be a card show dealer in the 70's and 80's. When grading came along in the 90's he took his cards off the market and put them away. I've seen only a tip of the iceberg of what he owns and made him mad when I kept going back to see and buy more. Several cards I bought from him have graded 8 & 9, with a few 7's for centering (more like 9 o/c). I'm quite sure he has 10's of 1000's of cards stored away.
Same small hick town is another guy, sells cards out of an antique shop. Former Marine in Vietnam. Has complete sets from 1957-1980's as good or better than any I've ever seen. When grading came out in the early 90's, his cards "disappeared." He told me he wasn't interested in selling his "good stuff" anymore.
Two major "finds" in one insignificant small, hick town in America. Coincidence? Think again.
Look, guys, you don't have to have much of an imagination at all to speculate at what's out there. Any detective work at all will uncover great collections.
I just thought of another. A poor Baptist preacher in southern Ohio collected cards as his kids grew up. An absoute stickler for condition. Has complete, multiple sets from 1970-1985. Not a single graded card.
Don't forget, too. Some of us have multiple cards of the same set that AREN'T listed in any Registry. Pulled one out for grading. Kept the other 3 or 30 in storage.
Come on, fellows. Get out of your shell. You, nor I, nor PSA has anywhere near cornered this market yet. And never will.
The most credible and respected person in this great hobby, Al Rosen (a.k.a "Mr. Mint") HAS made the following finds:
"....6,000 [1952 Topps] Gem Mint high numbers of which there were 65 Mickey Mantle rookies....."
"....over 100 Mint-condition 1955 Bowman baseball sets....."
If you don't believe me, just look at his website:
Mr. Mint's Finds
He also found tons of other mint vintage cards. These cards aren't showing up anywhere in the PSA Pop Reports. What a shame. He must be holding all of these cards back just just to tease collectors such as "mikeschmidt" and Marshall Fogel.
There are many phenomenal sets out there that aren't graded, especially with the pre-war crowd who tends not to like slabbed cards as well.
His second post, less than 24 hours later says, Pre-war mint in ungraded condition has got to be quite scarce.
Now, I realize that's not a perfect conflict, but he appears to be making opposite points.
As for his third comment, where he challenges me to accept his wager (which I will not, as I am no gambler either), my statement which he quotes says it all. "To the vintage, raw card collector..." The raw card guy is not in this to flip a quick buck. He's perfectly happy storing his stash away until the market comes back around to him. I happen to believe it will. How, you ask?
Try this. Why do you believe PRO and some of the other graders cards are worth less? Isn't it because they let altered cards slip by? I have another post elsewhere on this forum complaining that a certain card company that is held in higher esteem than PRO has refused to acknowledge a trimmed card ended up in an 8 holder. This particular card shows at least 3 evidences of trimming, through the holder to the naked eye. Yet, still, the "head grader" (whoever that is) and the original grader ("who remembers the card when it orignally came through" (oh, really!)) asserts that it is not trimmed.
That, my friends, is anathema to this hobby. Once that, plus any number of other major/minor perceived/real problems, all of which have been discussed within the last month on this forum, filters out to the collecting community, grading will be forever bruised and perhaps damaged irreparably. If on the other hand, it's not a problem and more and more cards find their way into the slabs, the prices for graded and raw will merge (graded coming down and raw going up).
If I can buy a NM-MINT graded card for $15-25, why wouldn't I, after extensive inspection, buy a similar ungraded card for $10-$20 and keep it out of (a) the post office, (b) potential damage at the graders (it happens to all of us), and (c) that untechnological wonder - the plastic slab (which Jay Wolt, I believe it was, wraps in a sox and puts it in a clothes dryer for 20 minutes to prove it's failures to protect its contents)?
Many of us are gaining quite an education as this hobby matures. I urge you to open your eyes and look around. Try to spot long term trends and separate them from fads. Grading is not a fad, not by any means. But just like the dot coms of two years ago, sometimes the emporer has no clothes. Who's gonna tell him?
I have no doubt there is an immense amount of raw, unopened, unknown cards out there. I guess my question is this......
As an example, will anyone pay $125,000 for a perceived "gem mint" raw 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle?
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
You make pretty bold statements for which you have no concrete evidence. As each passing day goes by -- more cards get graded, more older collectors die, and more 100 year old baseball cards get damaged.
While there are some phenomenal vintage raw ungraded sets out there -- what are those sets by PSA's standard? Near Mint? Ex/MINT? Trust me -- any major dealer will tell you that finding a NM raw 1952 Topps set is a major find. How many collectors out there were concerned about centering ten to twenty years ago? Or back centering? Very few.
And, finally, there is the money issue. Commons from many 1933 Goudey, 1950s Topps/Bowman, and other major sets sell for THOUSANDS of dollars in PSA 8 and PSA 9 grade. PSA 8 1933 Goudey commons have sold for over $10,000. COMMONS!! With money like that on the table -- don't you think that card with a raw NM/MT book value of $100 is worth the gamble on the grading game?
There have been no major finds that turn up hoardes of PSA 9/10 vintage cards. Perhaps you will have the very, very rare raw set from the 1950s where there are mainly 7s and 8s, with a couple dozen PSA 9s. But that is an exception that happens every few years -- and for sets that sell for six figures!
And then there are the ridiculous finds like Mr. Mint's. Exaggerated to the point of lunacy -- they were important finds to the hobby, but even 30+ year old wax boxes onlly turned up PSA 7s and 8s. After being untouched in their original container for 30 - 50 years. So if they are not NM/MT out of wax -- where and when could they have ever been. Using his examples -- his pair of 1948 Leaf boxes, his Bowman find, and his Topps finds did yield some nice PSA 9s -- but primarily 7s, 8s, and qualified cards.
The same holds true for the majority of other collections that are considered "finds".
You both have gone to ridiculous extremes to try and make your points. The exception always proves the rule. I was talking about $20-$25 commons from the late '50s to '60s.
Schmitty, please, won't you be my friend?
To set the record straight, it was "Brucemo" that did the washing machine/slab gig.
Sky
"Give me a reason to fly, and I'll be there"
<< <i>And then there are the ridiculous finds like Mr. Mint's. Exaggerated to the point of lunacy -- ...... >>
What??? Those claims aren't true?
According to the most respected publication in the sports collecting hobby, "Archie Comics", [He's] One Of The Top Dealers In Sports Memorabilia." (I think "Jughead" was the one who made that statement).
Quotes about Mr. Mint
Mikeschmidt -- You better not get Mr. Mint mad! He might just grade those one hundred '55 Bowman sets and yours will be ranked #101 on the Registry!
Now we have discussed on many occasions how cards from the 60's and 70's (and to a much lesser degree, the mid to late 50's) are more plentifully abundant in NM/MT or better raw condition than the Population Report indicates. However, what we will likely see is a softening of the multiples paid above SMR on some cards as well as a selling price at 75-80% of SMR for those same NM/MT cards as more become graded. In vintage sets, there will only be moderate pressure placed downwards upon cards and in many cases, no pressure whatsoever.
Nonetheless, market pressures based upon supply and demand are not to be confused with a shift in preference towards ungraded cards. In fact, as Marc implicitly stated, as the older collectors die, eventually younger collectors will take their place who knew of only a time when there was card grading and will see raw cards as a haven for the unwise or for cards that aren't worth the grading fees by virtue of condition or overproduction.
Wayne
But I still disagree that raw cards will someday be worth more than graded. If you're talking PRO or MAP or the likes, then you probably have a valid point. If your talking about the big three, then I disagree with your prediction.
1)While there are pre-war sets that are ungraded that their owners call nrmt-mt, if these sets were submitted to psa there would on average be more 7s,6s, and 8o/c's than 8s.
2)There would also be a significant number of cards that would come back as altered(trimmed, recolored, bleached etc.)
3)While I have posted before that there ar huge amounts of ungraded material fro the 1960s and1970s that will eventually be graded and come back as 8s or better, this materially drops off as you go back into the 1950s and before.
4)Whoever said who would ever buy an ungraded vintage set is right on the money. I guarantee that most buyers cannnot accurately tell in many cases whether a card has been altered.
5)Thus, the values of graded vintage sets dwarf that and will continue to dwarf that of ungraded material.
Please PM me if you know of anyone with tons of pre 1960's unopened (or pre-1970 for that matter). I'd be happy to take it off their hands. I'd be particulary interested in 1953 Topps 5c wax packs as there are no known legitimate packs that have been located to date. I'm intersted in single packs, boxes or cases. I'm not picky. I'd also be interested in NM/MT 1950's raw sets. I doubt I have the cash to buy the hoards of these that are out there but I'm sure I could pull a group of investors together to purchase them. Anyone else on this forum want to join my investment project?
I must also surmise I'm one of the few to have ever sold complete, ungraded sets, at least on ebay.
Since joining ebay in 1999, I've sold complete, ungraded vintage sets from 1959, 1961, 1963 and 1968. Prior to ebay, I sold a 1966 set at a show. Here's what I got for them, as a percentage of the then current Beckett complete set price:
1966 55% (sold to a dealer at a show in 1998).
1961 74% (6/99)
1968 122% (6/99)
1959 62% (6/00)
1963 95% (2/02)
Actually, the '63 set was about 19-20% graded, mostly 7's with a few 6's on the stars. None of the other sets had any graded cards. All sets were sold as ExMt to NrMt, except the '68 set, which was NM+ to NM/MT and the '59 set, which was Ex+ to Ex-Mt. I received positive FB on everyone, so I believe everyone was happy. I know I was. In each case, I had another, better set, which I kept.
I am honestly not sure what your sales results prove. I think that all in all...someone shelling out big bucks for a baseball card(s) ... would probably like to have the peace of mind that they're getting what they pay for. Especially when buying off the internet...these two companies take the guesswork out of the transaction. I don't see that changing unless PSA & SGC have substantial percentages of cards misgraded.
While you graded your sets accurately...not everyone that sells sets will do the same. I bought a 1972 set on EBAY that was NM+...that arrived and had several cards written on...that's right...written on! I was lucky that the guy refunded...but what if he told me where to go and how to get there?
I will not debate the fact that there are isolated incidents where PSA or SGC misses...but by and large...they get it right.
Regards,
Alan
Remember that sets are inherently discounted, and have a "break value" much higher than the set value. Take the value of the cards, if EVERY CARD were a common. It totals $4744. Now add in a Pete Rose RC in place of a $15 common, etc. - I believe the break value comes to over $9000. So you sold the set at 50% of the value of the cards individually...this is a lot different than graded sets, which aren't discounted (and in fact many times carry a premium) when completely graded...
I'm not sure my results prove anything. The sample size is too small to be statistically significant. But I'll tell you this much, every set sold on ebay for more than I expected (with the possible exception of the '59 set, although it was in the worse shape relative to the others). I lugged that '68 set around to show after show after show for a couple of years. One dealer from Denver, well known on the hobby circuit, looked at every single card (took him over an hour to go through the set). He offered me $1400, while his case was filled with raw cards priced at 150-200% of book. Man, was I glad I didn't sell to him! With ebay, I nearly tripled my money.
I find that there is plenty of demand for collectible-grade raw cards to satisfy my needs. The high end collector tends to dominate, especially in the grading arena. But the bulk of this hobby is still your average Joe, who doesn't have the experience or resources to shell out prices for graded MINT 9 commons.
Ebay has been an absolute boon to my hobby interests, while PSA (and SGC to a lesser extent) have been marginally additive. I'm just disappointed with some recent PSA grading experiences. I've noticed recently that others have noticed a change as well. Hopefully, its not a trend or if it is, it will be corrected before it's too late.
I remember the 2000 National in Anaheim. Submitting cards on site was a long term experience, several rows deep most of the day. Last year at Cleveland, the lines were practically non-existent. This year will be interesting to observe.
Well aware of that. The '63 break price is $9,610. But I doubt anyone could have broken that '63 set and got much more than I got (maybe 10%). I believe I maximized it's value by offering it complete. That's especially true if one considers the time, listing fees, etc. I know I exceeded realizable value compared to if all cards were graded 6-7. Grading fees would have killed me.
Ungraded sets do have a value that is more than what most would expect. At least in my limited experience.
In the particular case on the '63 set, I believe the buyer was looking for a complete set and didn't want to spend the time piecing it together one card at a time. That's valuable to most people.
But if you compare a "NM-MT" set with a PSA 8+ graded set sale, then you'll see the difference. Gaspipe's PSA 8/9 1969 partial set is a good example. It wasn't even complete (missing several key cards) and it sold for >$20k. On the rare occasion that a "NM-MT" raw set is advertised on eBay, the seller would be lucky if it sold for much over $3000, and that's for a 100% complete set.
For prewar cards, the numbers are a lot lower, both for quantities of raw sets extant and for percentages of cards that would come back as PSA 8s and 9s.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
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I think the slabs are okay, but don't bang them around. Is "don't bang your cards around" anything other than obvious advice, no matter what kind of holder they are in?
I think that there are some very good sets still out there. I live in a card backwater, but a guy came into a shop near me with a '53 Topps set. The dealer couldn't afford the set, so the guy went out to his car and brought in some "lower condition duplicates", that the dealer bought.
I bought these and had them PSA graded. I got several 8's, most of the rest 7's, and a few 6's.
I've seen other material come through this area as well. I've gotten PSA-9's out of '59 Topps and '63 Fleer sets that were sold to my local dealers. The '59 set had awesome low numbers, and I sent in bunch of nice ones and got 8's. The '63 Fleer set was mostly NM/MT with regard to corners. I think that probably about 20% of that set was sent in and got 8's. A friend of mine sent some in that were too OC for me, and he got four 9(OC)'s.
I bought some "mint" '68 Topps commons on eBay, and sent them in. I got 7 8's, 6 9's, and 2 10's.
I think that good stuff must still exist. This is a very large country, and people put things aside and forget about them for a long time.
bruce
Website: http://www.brucemo.com
Email: brucemo@seanet.com
sure some people pay good money for low pop cards but it doesnt mean that they are crazy ... it just means that they are impatient and have a lot of money to spend.
and does anyone honestly think that there is a raw 1968 set in better condition than Revere's set?
Groucho Marx
I think PSA has cornered the market
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
There are still plenty of high grade PSA cards that are not on the registry. Some people just don't care about the registry.
I'm frequently outbid for Dallas Cowboys cards by eBay bidder s***s. I don't see those cards show up on the registry unless I've missed them. I agree, lots of great cards not there. I've also tried to locate all 9 of the PSA 9 1963 Bob Lilly rookies as well, I can't find all of those on the registry either. Same with the 1966 PSA 9 Bob Hayes rookie.
The Doomsday Collection
Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor | All-Time Dallas Cowboys | Bob Lilly Master | Pro Football HOF Dallas Cowboys
I am a fan of buying graded, especially online. I don't know how many "mint" raw cards I've purchased that are PSA 7 at best. It gets a little frustrating.
Margaret Thatcher
half my cards are not in the registry
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
I think what they meant in the post, and correct me if I'm wrong. They meant in the PSA registry as in registered in the PSA system not as actually part of a set.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
Lots of the "best" sportscards are not graded, so they aren't in the registry. I do not equate "best" with "mint".
Much of the discussion here seems to be about 50's-70's regular issue stuff. These cards are not rare. If you have ever been to a "National" you know that not everyone's mom threw out their cards. This group of cards probably has the highest percentage of graded and in the registry cards. Still, I'm betting there is a large quantity of unopened and just hoarded cards/sets out there.
My "best" card is a PSA 5.5 1967 Stand-Up, certainly not a high grade card.
My guess is, there are many collectors that acquired their cards long before the grading companies existed and don't see a reason to have their cards graded, much less in the registry.
Yes some of the best sport cards are not graded i received a message from a guy in my neck of the woods after i purchased some PSA hockey cards from him,his extra cards were submitted and they came back nines and tens i bought a few, he mentioned that when Gretzky' s rookie card came out he purchased as many as he could then he traded them for older cards in his collection there are three complete mint sets of raw Parkhurst all years of Topps and O Pee Chee, he did mention they were for his sons as an inheritance.
I agree and that's why items are priced as such - took me a while to figure that out.
If you want a 9, sometimes it's just better to buck up and buy it. I, too, prefer to buy raw but most people overstate raw cards by at least a grade (human nature to give your own cards the benefit of the doubt, it's not always bad intent). At the end of the day, it's often cheaper to overpay for the grade you want - already slabbed - than trying to find it raw and submit. Costs more money but built into the price is often less heartache, disappointment and ultimately less total money spent...
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest