Does the numismatic industry follow the stock market?
logger7
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With increased economic volatility and pull-backs, what should we expect in the numismatic markets? My quick take is that buyer hesitance with increased expectation for quality and value are stronger than ever.
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Less money to spend on optional purchases.
There's probably actual metrics for this (which would overrule any 'opinion' I may have), but seems the two would have to be highly correlated. Portfolios that have gained would sure make it more palatable to stretch the coin budget, while a shrinking balance would make people retreat and focus on 'needs' rather than 'wants'.
On the flip side, if you've got enough cash stashed away, the time would be ripe for some bargain hunting.
There might be a few speculators who might mess with coins because of stock market volatility, but they will been headed into a worse buzz saw if they don’t know what they’re doing. They could mess with gold, but it’s actually been lower the past few days.
I’ll likely put the breaks up on purchasing for a bit after the steep sell-off. Decision is not derived from rigorous mathematical analysis! For me collecting is purely a hobby.
Casual collector: Morgans & Peace Dollars & 20th Century Type Set. Successful BST transactions with ProofCollection, Morgan13, CoinFinder, CoinHunter4, Bretsan.
If you’re a multi multi millionaire the decline in the stock market probably won’t affect your buying but I suspect for a significant number of collectors with the stock market tanking and economic uncertainty there’s more of a reluctance to buy expensive coins.
That's where I'm at for the moment. I had an eBay bid going that ended tonight, on a piece that I really, really wanted, but I reluctantly let it go by the wayside. The speed at which my retirement portfolio has been evaporating has been astounding! Until things settle down I will be paring back my spending on all things discretionary.
The coin market has no top and is not affected by outside influences.
I'm not clear on the intent of the original question.
If the question is whether there is correlation between US coin prices and financial markets, "it depends".
The last long-term bear market in the US ended in 1981 (bonds) and 1982 (stocks). Declines since have either been temporary or credit availability and economic conditions didn't create extended economic duress. During COVID and the GFC, there was a lot of unemployment with the declining stock market, but credit conditions remained historically loose, and the economy recovered quickly.
The US has been in a full-blown asset, debt, and credit mania the entire 21st century. It just appears (somewhat) "normal" because it has lasted so long while deranged fiscal and monetary policy facilitated fake "growth" especially after 2008.
When the mania ends, I'd definitely expect more than just a temporary "correction" in coin prices, though silver and gold spot may provide some support.
I’ll let you know after my GC auctions close tonight.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
The prices and price spreads where it's "meaningful" or "high and "large" aren't based upon the coin's relative merits as a collectible.
Look at the US coin market prior to 1986 or in the rest of the world now and previously. This is how collectors view this topic in a non-financialized coin market. US collectors will pay current prices for the quality differences implied in your comment if they are willing to treat it as an alternate consumption expense (the collector base is a lot more affluent vs. decades past) or believe they can recover most of their cost, but not otherwise.
An extended (as opposed to temporary) bear market with adverse economic and financial conditions will make the marginal buyer a lot less able or willing to do that.
The only thing I’m certain about is future uncertainty. At least in the near term. I don’t need to tighten my spending on luxury items, but I will. Habit of a lifetime.
During periods of economic turbulence, there's a pronounced affinity towards assets that provide intrinsic value and stability. Rare coins, with their historical significance and finite supply, serve as a reliable store of wealth, offering a tangible safeguard against market fluctuations.
While equities have floundered, recently, from the impact of inflation, rising yields, and international trade turmoil caused by the new tariff policies, precious metals and rare coins have garnered attention from institutional as well as private investors. Gold, silver and platinum have all shown growth, reinforcing a trend toward asset diversification beyond traditional securities.
The positive correlation between financial instability and rare coin demand is historically consistent. Physical assets becomes even more important to a well diversified portfolio.
There has been record-breaking activity, so far, in 2025, including many multi-million-dollar auction results and increased global participation in the rare coin market.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I think the current uncertainty is disrupting almost all assets classes at least temporarily. I think investors and collectors, of all net worth, get nervous when faced with uncertainty, things will get back to normal once things calm down.
On a long-term basis, the US coin price level is almost entirely a result of the loosest credit conditions in history. This is evident in the charts of the PCGS 3000 index since 1970, US stock market since 1982, gold since the late 60's, and total outstanding (public and private) US debt over the same period. The US coin price level Is more the result of financialization and marketing versus an increased interest in collecting, as US coins were first widely bought as "investment" starting in the 70's which was also reflected in the widely publicized (and at least somewhat misleading) Salmon Brothers survey.
Most supposedly "rare" coins aren't rare but common if not very common. The intrinsic value on most coins profiled on this forum isn't even noticeable as a fraction of the market value. Even on coins frequently described as "widgets" which are much cheaper such as common MS Morgan dollars, the premiums are really inflated. There is likely far more supply of the most common date Morgan dollars for the recreational base (as opposed to "investor" buying) meaning most of it is potentially bought for financial reasons.
The US stock market decline to date isn't anything out of the ordinary. It's about 15% on the S&P 500. A decline to 3500 is a large bear market by historical standards (about 40%), but only back to October 2022 levels when it was hardly cheap then, illustrating just how absurdly overpriced the US stock market has been.
What matters most to the topic of this thread is the extent and duration of any financial duress (if there turns out to be any) and whether the coins someone owns are held by "strong" or "weak" hands who can or can't afford to keep it, and like it enough to at least temporarily potentially lose a substantial proportion of their "investment".
Considering the 89 crash yes - and it could happen again.
But seriously - No if you know anything about financial accounting. Stock Market based on a true financial enterprise and its capacity to increase in equity. Why? Assets - Liabilities = Equity.
Coins are a collectible which could fall out of favor at any time in the future going down in flames. A guy in coin club gave presentation when GTA 6 comes out this fall spending on that will be in the stratosphere outpacing coins.
However, not to worry - Another guy in my coin club is nuts about the CACG Witter Brick (Label) Slabbed coins. I would wager they worth at least 25 pct tack on above CDN CAC CPG from what seen on bourse. Guy setup next to me recently however appeared have 50pct premium for them. The guy in coin club Inputs monster bids to get them. Do you?
Add the fact that now is tax season may be bad for large purchases. If you’re buying expensive coins you’re likely having to pay.