Why is the 2019 S Reverse Proof silver eagle pricing so low?
HalfDime
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The 2019 S Reverse Proof silver eagle, with a mintage of 29,909, had many expecting it to take on the 1995 W proof silver eagle pricing due to its similar mintage of 30,125, and yet it barely gets $1000 raw compared to $3000 for the 1995 W Proof.
The 2019 S is arguably a more beautiful coin since it is a reverse proof, and it also has a lower mintage, although slightly.
Some could point out the 1995 coin has almost 25 more years behind it, that accounts for perhaps lower condition coins, so is in fact a rarer silver eagle.
But the price of barely $1000 for the 2019 S is not realistic based on the number of silver eagle collectors, and what many pay for graded labels these days. Either the market is completely wrong, or there is something more to this story.
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Just a total guess...
The 1995 coin was included in a gold set and maybe many purchasers of those still have the intact sets, meaning fewer SEs on the market.
The 2019 was a stand-alone offering, I believe, so they all went to SE collectors either directly or through re-sale.
Because it is bullion
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In essence, the 2019 coin is a widget. It doesn’t exactly fit into the largely collected ase sets because it is a reverse proof. Sure, there are a few guys who collect all reverse proofs, and a few guys who collect every silver eagle made, but the bulk collect the ms coins and/or the proof coins. It’s a form of a sleeper coin.
That 95w is similar to the key dates in other series (55ddo cent, 16d dime, 09s-vdb) in the fact it’s not rare by mintage, but everyone knows about it and it commands the premium.
"Enhanced" coins in general see less demand than comparable uncirculated or proof coins. The 2017-S enhanced uncirculated Lincoln cent has less than half the mintage of the 1909-S VDB, but it can be readily obtained for $10, and the entire 10-coin EU set can be purchased for less than $30.
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"W" mintmark is cool.
"S" mintmark? Not so much.
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The 95-W is part of the basic set which has a larger collector base than the 2019 which is part of an extended set. I also see it as the closest to a 60's "key date" for a non-circulating US coin. The 2019, not so much despite the similar mintage.
My inference is that the ASE is substantially bought by low to moderate budget collectors as a primary interest or enough of them don't like ERPs. The 95-W is still very common, but I see it as an aspirational coin which a large pct. of the collector base can potentially eventually afford.
I find reverse proofs completely unattractive. If I did collect the series, I wouldn't buy any of the other finishes.
Well as it has been said the 95' was just a proof ASE, something the mint does every year. So you need a 95' to complete or continue the set. The EN>REV>PROOF 19' is almost a one off.... At lease for now. If the US Mint starts minting a run of high mintage enhanced Rev Proof eagles, then the 19' may become a key date and thus command more of a premium..
Financially, this should mostly or entirely be relevant for the 70.
I understand why you may see it as an anomaly, but the real anomaly is why both coins sell at the current and prior prices. (Yes, I know it's supply and demand.) I consider both to be in the top 5 as the most overpriced coins in the world for what either are as a collectible (not as "investment").
The market isn't wrong on the price. It's not like there is any mystery on the supply or grade distribution. There is the difference in demand covered in other posts here and some uncertainty about that in the future but not like hardly any other coin.
I don't consider either coin to be a good financial value if that's partly why you started this thread. I'd rate the 95-W as a "hard pass" as a 70 and at best neutral otherwise for all timeframes. Longer term, I expect this coin to be "dead money" at best (measured in 2025 dollars) and underperform all four NCLT metals.
I'm less familiar with the 2019 prices but hold the same opinion.
What are your other overpriced besides these?
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We might "love the look", for things like 'enhanced' coins from the mint, but, there are MANY non-'enhanced' out there for the same year that can fill a place holder. MANY MANY more.
For the 1995-W proof, as stated, only in the gold set that year and, if you want to have that whole set for the silver eagle proofs, well, you're fighting people holding that gold set that want it as well, even if it isn't gold.
IMO, the mint didn't really do themselves, nor collectors, any real favors when doing these special finishes and such. They should have just stuck to 'normal' finishes and make sure they had good quality versions going in the mint/proof sets.
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As stated above, I think its the way that the 95-w was sold thru a set that several did not buy at first. It wasnt until sometime later that the scarcity and intrest took hold on the 95-w. By that time, some were broken out, sold later, lost etc. The 19 enhanced was a special issue from day one with basically every body getting one, keeping it and even the flippers flipping back to buyers who kept one.
I am not a modern collector at all, but I do have a 95-w for reasons stated above, the only other modern coin I would consider keeping would be the V75 gold. Like above with enhanced being kept and sought from day one, the one difference here is the mintage is so low on that issue demand should stay high for limited quantity for the long haul. I tried to get on eat issue, but computer wasn't fast enough to get it, been waiting for one to show up in store, but never has as of yet.
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As a type, the 2019-W is available for less than $200.
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The 1995 Gold Eagle 4-coin proof set was initially offered by the Mint for $999, with the "free" 1995-W Silver Eagle as an option. Around 30K sets were sold with the SE, and about 10K sets without. The Mint's sales limit of 45K sets with the SE was not reached. My theory is that those who declined the "free" SE were collecting the annual GE proof sets and wanted to maintain consistency in the look of the set in the original holder.
Many proof SE collectors boycotted the set, protesting the fact that the 1995-W was not offered as an affordable stand-alone. The SE by itself was available from dealers at around $265 during and for sometime after the set was available from the Mint. Anyone who bought at that price did very well thereafter.
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The coin I used to rank first was the 2008 South Africa BD Rand but the bubble has since burst. Its pocket change selling for very high prices in the highest grades and still for very high premiums even in mid-MS grades. Mintage is either 5MM or 22MM, not clear on which. One the then two (now 13) MS-69 purportedly sold for the equivalent of $338,000 about 15 years ago. Not sure what it sells for now since it crashed.
Another one would be the 1999 Unfinished AGE in MS-70 based upon the price listed in Jordan's book. The estimated mintage in his book is not low for a non-circulating coin of this price and as a 70, he listed it at $14K. This was more than numerous classic US gold and British 19th century gold proofs.
A fifth one would probably be the Cheerios Sac dollar.
Here are all of the reverse proof silver eagles released so far:
2006-P Reverse Proof: 248,875 coins minted
2011-P Reverse Proof: 99,882 coins minted
2012-S Reverse Proof: 224,981 coins minted
2013-W Reverse Proof: 235,689 coins minted
2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof: 29,909 coins minted
2019-W Enhanced Reverse Proof: 99,675 coins minted
2021 Type 1 Reverse Proof: 124,021 coins minted
2021 Type 2 Reverse Proof: 124,021 coins minted
Eight coins is a decent size set that is easy to put together. Maybe the set is too confusing, as an internet search brings up many unrelated coins. It is piecemeal releases and not a clean yearly set to follow.
For some reason the 1995 W proof silver eagle reminds me of the Jackie Robinson gold unc commemorative coin that sold at a very high premium of 4k and now is at 1k. Maybe it follows that path.
I recently looked up the prices on those and apparently more were minted than originally thought. It is something like double the amount, and the coin prices have not budged in fifteen years. They are considered error coins and not coins part of the actual sets, which was the premise for them to achieve key coin rarity pricing..
I think the 95-W will eventually lose a lot of value, but it may not, or it may be a long time and only in 2025 money. At $200 silver (or some much higher price) however long that takes, it would appear a lot cheaper than it is now even though the premium is still high.
I expect the ASE series to maintain its collector base, with a much higher (multiple increase) in the spot price the most likely reason it will decrease due to affordability.
The Robinson $5 actually commemorates an event widely perceived as worthwhile commemorating (as opposed to so many recent issues), but I don't believe collectors ever really liked it that much. If they did or do, the loss of supposed key date status shouldn't make that much of a difference.
When it first came out, the 2019-S RP ASE sold for just under $2,000 as I recall, once the froth of the first few days/weeks was past.
All things considered, it's held up pretty good, not like that gold JFK coin released at the 2014 ANA Conference.
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Collectors mostly went for the proofs, even though the Mint price was slightly higher. A popular option was a proof gold coin displayed with a special baseball card and pin in a cherrywood box. About 3K of the 5K uncirculated gold mintage was sold in complete sets of 2 (unc. and proof) silver dollars and 2 gold $5. Only 2K unc. gold coins were sold as singles, probably mostly to speculators.
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I find reverse Proofs to be unattractive. I might have two in my collection, somewhere. One is a Roosevelt Dime in a Dr. Spock commemorative set. I make no effort to acquire them.
For those of us who collect “classic coins,” a mintage of 29,909 with a virtual 100% survival rate, is nothing special. In the world of Sheldon large cent die varieties, that number would be lowest “R-1” of all. The mintage of the 1876 Twenty Cent Piece is far lower, and many of those coins were melted and never released.
I would not pay a five figure price for the 1995-W ASE on a bet. It’s not surprising that the price has fallen through the years. It’s too darn common to support those high numbers.
It about surviving population. 29K mintage is simply not a big deal. There are enough to promote that that promotion will move the market one way or the other.Buy what you enjoy but be very careful using a mintage figure to dictate rarity.
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A check this morning shows raw or OGP packaging is $1,200-$2,000 per coin. With a mintage of 30,000 or so, that seems to be a fair market price as far as the market is concerned over the last few years.
This is what I see missing in NCLT threads whenever the topic comes up.
It's about the surviving population vs. other coins in higher or highest quality. No one is buying NCLT as a substitute for more than a low proportion (if any) of circulated coinage, so whether the mintage on some (US) circulating coin is a large to huge multiple isn't hardly ever market relevant. No existing US NCLT has an actual market scarcity where it should ever actually be difficult to buy.
I'd rank market perception for mintage like this: 1) circulating coinage 2) circulating proofs 3) patterns 4) classic commemoratives (due to the same specifications as circulating coinage) 5) modern commemoratives 6) bullion NCLT with little if any difference between proofs and "business strikes".
I also prefer the regular ASE proof look over the Reverse Proof. Like the mirror finish in the fields and cameo devices. Reverse Proofs have too silvery of a look.
But the other half of the equation is that the demand for the coin is very very high because lots of people collect the (otherwise affordable) series.
The bubble-like pricing was initially a lack of graded supply from the TPGs but as the populations steadily increased, especially from 2010-15, the price fell.