The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Confidence and Competence

Boosibri

This model is spot on my view and applies to numismatic knowledge development.

Many never make it to “the slope of enlightenment” and fewer the “plateau of sustainability”. Most either sit blissfully at “the peak of mount stupid” or leave the hobby at “the trough of despair”.

Saw this and thought I’d share

coinkat

I suppose we haven’t advanced to the point whereby I can even quote Clint Eastwood…

A man has to know his limitations…

Staircoins

"A little learning is a dangerous thing."

Alexander Pope

lermish

@Boosibri said:
This model is spot on my view and applies to numismatic knowledge development.

Let me fix that for you.

This model is spot on my view and applies to numismatic knowledge development essentially every moderately technical topic in the world.

EDIT: The DK effect is one of the great banes of my life and it is taking all of my self restraint to not rant and rave.

johnny9434

It makes sense but it's nothing I'd want to hang on to, fwiw

Boosibri

@lermish said:

@Boosibri said:
This model is spot on my view and applies to numismatic knowledge development.

Let me fix that for you.

This model is spot on my view and applies to numismatic knowledge development essentially every moderately technical topic in the world.

EDIT: The DK effect is one of the great banes of my life and it is taking all of my self restraint to not rant and rave.

Please, rant and rave all you like

jshaulis

This is spot on for entry level software developers. The peak is somewhere between yr2-3 and by yr5 at least realize they were in the valley on their way back up. The most dangerous software developer is the one with 3 yrs exp.

Curious on others thoughts on timings for numismatic or other industries?

earlyAurum

it's a cool graph. one that could be applied for many endeavors.

Catbert

Making hobby mistakes and learning from them vs giving up or repeating is part of the journey. The whole “buy the book, before the coin” sounds nice yet it is totally unrealistic with an enthusiastic newb. Ya gotta lose some money for the lessons to stick.

Shurke

With coins I think I started in the valley of despair. Spent maybe a year before I even bought anything, just reading online trying to figure out how to identify things like cleaning. Finally I decided reading alone would never get me there and started buying cheap raw coins on eBay.

I started learning quicker at that point, but the feeling I was never going to get anywhere with this hobby lingered for at least another year beyond that.

Bikergeek

Paradoxically, some people who attain a high level of competence evince Impostor's Syndrome, where they question their own competence. While the blissfully ignorant square off with them, sure of their very rightness.

I will say - nobody in a Tae Kwon Do sparring class is more dangerous than a yellow belt. :-)

TimNH

Ha, that is totally me, I'm one of those guys who went into Covid lockdown and remembered I have this great old coin collection in the attic, let me dig that out, and I think I'll do a rapid type set on eBay

MrEureka

Is that chart supposed to map an individual’s path from know-nothing to guru status?

ShaunBC5

I just showed and explained that graph to my teenage daughter. I love her to death and she’s smart and talented and well-adjusted and goes from mountain top to mountain top while pretending to be in the valley of despair.
Tonight, I also took my 11yo son from peak to trough in two sentences regarding weightlifting/working out (oops).
For me and coins I don’t think a I’ve ever been confident enough to reach the peak (still stupid, just broke and scared), but I do slide up and what is hopefully a slope of enlightenment.

Barberian

I'm undoing the trough now. This was a fiasco from 18 years ago involving a seller who embellished the description, sent the coin registered snail-mail that moved 400 miles at a rate of 20 miles per day, blamed me for the late reply, and would not allow a refund. The coin was corroded and polished. Hardly an "XF48." I don't know if he didn't pay attention and understand the registered mail problem or he's just a jerk, but he received my only negative given to a seller on eBay.

It's been mostly uphill since then. I have gotten lost on various side trails though, from collecting strictly on-line rather than taking a more direct climb through looking at lots of coins in-person and fellowship with other collectors at shows.

I've experienced the DK effect myself and seen it in others while gaining experience as an entomologist. Here's another truism: it takes just a little bit of knowledge to fool others into thinking you're an expert. Don't fool yourself as well.

Namvet69

Ego is a strange bedfellow. I like the chart. Peace Roy

MrEureka

Wouldn’t it make more sense to chart overconfidence over time?

scubafuel

Graphs like this are fine, and rightly point out false confidence in newcomers in any field. However, I’ve always have some issues with it.

1. Often this type of thing is just used for one group to dunk on another person or group.

2. They are ineffective in changing anyone’s opinion. The point of false confidence is tending not to believe the “experts” anyway.

3. The plateau of sustainability is unfortunately sometimes a flatline of stagnation in my experience. (Or maybe my false confidence is showing)

4. If you are trying to create something new and surprising in the world, “peak stupid and confident” is actually a pretty good place to be. Maybe almost required.

5. Coin collecting itself is such a strange and counterintuitive pursuit that I hesitate to move anyone involved with it very far along this graph (and I speak as a lifelong collector!)

It’s a very weird hobby we share! But I love it.

Coinscratch

You left out a few details.

coinkat

I can see we now have the Steven Spielberg adaption... no confusion yet over Mount Stupid and A Paramount Picture logo which is a positive. I highly recommend Double Indemnity (1944)...a classic from the Paramount vaults directed by Billy Wilder and stars Barbara Stanwyck, Fred MacMurray and Edward G. Robinson.

In all seriousness, the Dunning - Kruger concept should really help a collector develop some objectivity as to what they know... don't know... and what they need to know,

Measuring confidence, I suspect could be problematic given the subjective nature of collecting and grading.

Seems the more one may know, the more one likely realizes that there is much that they do not know.

Cougar1978

Confidence and competence are both vital in having a successful project.

Lack of confidence (fumbling the kickoff, not taking your turn at bat) drags down competence in achieving project success. Whether business or social (dating).

In addition it takes a project strategy (game plan) to project both in order to achieve project success. Then smooth execution to your goal.

Catbert

@Cougar1978 said:
Confidence and competence are both vital in having a successful project.

Lack of confidence (fumbling the kickoff, not taking your turn at bat) drags down competence in achieving project success. Whether business or social (dating).

In addition it takes a project strategy (game plan) to project both in order to achieve project success. Then smooth execution to your goal.

Tell us more about your insights on the dating scene! How do the strip clubs influence your success?

jmlanzaf

@Catbert said:

@Cougar1978 said:
Confidence and competence are both vital in having a successful project.

Lack of confidence (fumbling the kickoff, not taking your turn at bat) drags down competence in achieving project success. Whether business or social (dating).

In addition it takes a project strategy (game plan) to project both in order to achieve project success. Then smooth execution to your goal.

Tell us more about your insights on the dating scene! How do the strip clubs influence your success?

You just have to work your angles... and always pay 20% under her ask.

JohnnyCache

Coinscratch

LMAO - Precise placement Johnny.

Manifest_Destiny

fathom

Well Lerm and others don't get yourself too smug. The guru plateau of sustainability can contain:

rte592

With age comes wisdom, before that your better off getting lucky.

rte592

@MrEureka said:
Wouldn’t it make more sense to chart overconfidence over time?

This is what the chart looks like when you Buy what you like.

lermish

@fathom said:
Well Lerm and others don't get yourself too smug. The guru plateau of sustainability can contain:

I've never claimed expertise in almost any field, certainly not numismatics.

However, in light of the critical thinking you demonstrated in the VBX9 thread, your opinion and continued AI copy/pasting carries zero weight.

Coinscratch

@Fathom Grades can have a humbling effect thus neutralizing any excess bloat.

Barberian

@Catbert said:

@Cougar1978 said:
Confidence and competence are both vital in having a successful project.

Lack of confidence (fumbling the kickoff, not taking your turn at bat) drags down competence in achieving project success. Whether business or social (dating).

In addition it takes a project strategy (game plan) to project both in order to achieve project success. Then smooth execution to your goal.

Tell us more about your insights on the dating scene! How do the strip clubs influence your success?

He told me "Don't bring a roll of quarters."