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Ichiro one vote shy of unanimous...and he wasn't even as good as Bobby Abreu..

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  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 9,666 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Being somewhat of a media darling always helps with your push to the hall, in addition to the numbers. Capturing the public's fascination.

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Tabe said:

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:

    It's a little misleading to use runs to compare Lofton & Ichiro. Lofton compiled a big portion of his runs in the 90s with a roster full of roid guys hitting behind him. Ichiro played at Safeco with not the same level of hitters behind him.

    And Butler? Butler never reached the peaks that Ichiro did. And he got caught stealing roughly a billion times - nearly a third of his attempts, which is just incredible.

    I'm well aware of that in regard to runs...hence why I said in regard to Abreu, "Oh, but, but the lineups. Introducing that is not old school...recognizing that factor starts your path toward Run Expectancy....

    Abreu 570
    Ichiro 146"

    If you recognize those factors such as era or lineups then all you need to know offensively is their OPS+ and Run Expectancy. Like it or not, Butler is in the same neighborhood as Ichiro. His peak may be lower, but in the end, they still reside on the same block...and both had late starts. Same for Lofton.

    If you ignore or disregard the better measurements, then why stop there and just use old school runs scored ;)....either way, the conclusions come out the same.

    I didn't mention Abreu.

    Don't care about the late starts for Butler, Ichiro, or Lofton. And the fact is that Ichiro's peak was higher than the other two guys which DOES matter (see: Koufax, Sandy). Ichiro's top 2 WAR seasons were higher than either Lofton or Butler's best, for example. To be fair, that's because Lofton's best season was shortened by strike. His top almost certainly would have topped Ichiro's in that case. But his second best would still trail Ichiro's 2nd-best. Butler's top would be Ichiro's 3rd best and his 2nd would be Ichiro's 7th.

    Confirms they all live on the same block. Thats the whole point. Whether one has a little nicer lawn or a dormer to add a few thousand in value to their homes...they keep the same company in baseball abilities and value.

    Defensive WAR is a guess. That is where Ichiro makes up his ground to them since he is behind them offensively. Defenisve WAR values are not as valid.

    Lofton, Icdhiro, and Butler are neighbors. They probably make good food together but they are all very similar to each other.

  • bgrbgr Posts: 2,341 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It’s an incredible commitment to analogy at the very least.

    Sometimes even small differences can be vast and untouchable. The world record for men’s high jump is 2.45 meters. This is going to require some evolutionary luck to surpass. Second place is 2.43 meters. A world apart but on the same block. Living across the street there are 100 all at 2.42 meters. You can barely tell the houses apart if you don’t look closely. Not sure why the HoA requires them all to be painted beige.

  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 4, 2025 7:49AM

    @bgr said:
    It’s an incredible commitment to analogy at the very least.

    Sometimes even small differences can be vast and untouchable. The world record for men’s high jump is 2.45 meters. This is going to require some evolutionary luck to surpass. Second place is 2.43 meters. A world apart but on the same block. Living across the street there are 100 all at 2.42 meters. You can barely tell the houses apart if you don’t look closely. Not sure why the HoA requires them all to be painted beige.

    Small differences between Ichiro, Lofton, and Butler....but vast differences when you compare Ichiro to Mantle, Bonds, Ruth, etc, regardless of how many empty hits Ichiro has(and he has MORE total hits than each of those players and is not remotely close to being as good as any of them)....so not quite BGR. Nice try though.

    So yes, Ichiro lives on same block in same neighbotrhood as Butler and lofton. The true greats live on more expensive blocks with houses three times the size and value.

    Analogy sticks. Thanks for playing.

  • bgrbgr Posts: 2,341 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:

    @bgr said:
    It’s an incredible commitment to analogy at the very least.

    Sometimes even small differences can be vast and untouchable. The world record for men’s high jump is 2.45 meters. This is going to require some evolutionary luck to surpass. Second place is 2.43 meters. A world apart but on the same block. Living across the street there are 100 all at 2.42 meters. You can barely tell the houses apart if you don’t look closely. Not sure why the HoA requires them all to be painted beige.

    Small differences between Ichiro, Lofton, and Butler....but vast differences when you compare Ichiro to Mantle, Bonds, Ruth, etc, regardless of how many empty hits Ichiro has(and he has MORE total hits than each of those players and is not remotely close to being as good as any of them)....so not quite BGR. Nice try though.

    So yes, Ichiro lives on same block in same neighbotrhood as Butler and lofton. The true greats live on more expensive blocks with houses three times the size and value.

    Analogy sticks. Thanks for playing.

    I didn't say it was a bad analogy. It just lacks the resolution I was pointing to. If you squint your eyes they're all on the same block... that's abstraction. I do enjoy the debate especially how you conduct yourself when you disagree. A rare find.

    I'm not simple enough to think that most hits means best player, but someday.

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No one's bringing up Mantle, Bonds, or Ruth.

    We're talking about guys with little or no power that made up for it in other ways.

    I'll take Ichiro for his 12 straight years of basically missing no games, getting a lot of hits, stealing a lot of bases and being a premier defensive player, over Lofton and Butler.

    The way the statistics are set up makes a guy like Lofton, look better than Ichiro even though he misses quite a few more games. I think if you added the value of the guy who replaced Lofton for those missing games and recalculated as a single player, his numbers would look worse. After all, "you can't help the club if you're in the tub".

    When you look at a players actual numbers and compare them to his "per 162 games" totals, if they are vastly different, that shows his value is inflated.

    In Lofton's best year, he played in all the games, but still did it for only 112 games. Not his fault, but not as good as the guy with SLIGHTLY worse numbers who did it for 162 games.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 4, 2025 9:56AM

    @bgr said:

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:

    @bgr said:
    It’s an incredible commitment to analogy at the very least.

    Sometimes even small differences can be vast and untouchable. The world record for men’s high jump is 2.45 meters. This is going to require some evolutionary luck to surpass. Second place is 2.43 meters. A world apart but on the same block. Living across the street there are 100 all at 2.42 meters. You can barely tell the houses apart if you don’t look closely. Not sure why the HoA requires them all to be painted beige.

    Small differences between Ichiro, Lofton, and Butler....but vast differences when you compare Ichiro to Mantle, Bonds, Ruth, etc, regardless of how many empty hits Ichiro has(and he has MORE total hits than each of those players and is not remotely close to being as good as any of them)....so not quite BGR. Nice try though.

    So yes, Ichiro lives on same block in same neighbotrhood as Butler and lofton. The true greats live on more expensive blocks with houses three times the size and value.

    Analogy sticks. Thanks for playing.

    I didn't say it was a bad analogy. It just lacks the resolution I was pointing to. If you squint your eyes they're all on the same block... that's abstraction. I do enjoy the debate especially how you conduct yourself when you disagree. A rare find.

    I'm not simple enough to think that most hits means best player, but someday.

    IF you keep squinting then every human with a bat in their hands are all on the same block.

    Still doesn't diminsh that Butler and Ichiro are neck and neck in every key offensive measurement...you know, the valid ones.

    Bonds, Mantle, and Ruth living it up in the nieghborhood. That is greatness.

    Butler might be a little jealous of the window that Ichiro upgraded his front door with, but they still reside on same block and same neighborhood. Ichiro's lawn is a little thicker than Lofton's because Ichiro was more durable. He was more durable but not better at baseball. Lofton was actually superior at baseball than Ichiro was.

    I disagree on your use of hit totals. You present them in a way that gives them much more merit than they truly have. Heck, over 2,000 of Ichiro's hits have the same value as a base on balls that so many people disdain on here for hitters.

  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bgr

    Tony Phillips just bought the house across the street from Ichiro. BBQ at 6:00. Bret Butler is bringing the beer.

  • DarinDarin Posts: 7,325 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:
    @bgr

    Tony Phillips just bought the house across the street from Ichiro. BBQ at 6:00. Bret Butler is bringing the beer.

    Amos Otis is the grumpy neighbor who keeps telling them to get off his lawn. And if any repairs are needed on his house Butler, Ichiro, and Phillips make those repairs for free.

  • MaywoodMaywood Posts: 2,478 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Ichiro made less errors than Kenny Lofton, but I saw Lofton do stuff Ichiro couldn't even dream of. Also as a CF Lofton made plays on more batted balls by nature of the position. Both players had good arms made plays after having the ball in their gloves, Ichiro had an advantage of being closer to the infield on most of his throws, though he did have a solid arm. What strikes me as odd about Ichiro is that he played almost all his games at RF, a position where the weakest outfielder is usually placed. I'd be curious to know why Seattle did that. If he was such a good glove(he was) and was fast with a good arm then why wasn't he in LF or CF.

  • bgrbgr Posts: 2,341 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:

    @bgr said:

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:

    @bgr said:
    It’s an incredible commitment to analogy at the very least.

    Sometimes even small differences can be vast and untouchable. The world record for men’s high jump is 2.45 meters. This is going to require some evolutionary luck to surpass. Second place is 2.43 meters. A world apart but on the same block. Living across the street there are 100 all at 2.42 meters. You can barely tell the houses apart if you don’t look closely. Not sure why the HoA requires them all to be painted beige.

    Small differences between Ichiro, Lofton, and Butler....but vast differences when you compare Ichiro to Mantle, Bonds, Ruth, etc, regardless of how many empty hits Ichiro has(and he has MORE total hits than each of those players and is not remotely close to being as good as any of them)....so not quite BGR. Nice try though.

    So yes, Ichiro lives on same block in same neighbotrhood as Butler and lofton. The true greats live on more expensive blocks with houses three times the size and value.

    Analogy sticks. Thanks for playing.

    I didn't say it was a bad analogy. It just lacks the resolution I was pointing to. If you squint your eyes they're all on the same block... that's abstraction. I do enjoy the debate especially how you conduct yourself when you disagree. A rare find.

    I'm not simple enough to think that most hits means best player, but someday.

    IF you keep squinting then every human with a bat in their hands are all on the same block.

    Still doesn't diminsh that Butler and Ichiro are neck and neck in every key offensive measurement...you know, the valid ones.

    Bonds, Mantle, and Ruth living it up in the nieghborhood. That is greatness.

    Butler might be a little jealous of the window that Ichiro upgraded his front door with, but they still reside on same block and same neighborhood. Ichiro's lawn is a little thicker than Lofton's because Ichiro was more durable. He was more durable but not better at baseball. Lofton was actually superior at baseball than Ichiro was.

    I disagree on your use of hit totals. You present them in a way that gives them much more merit than they truly have. Heck, over 2,000 of Ichiro's hits have the same value as a base on balls that so many people disdain on here for hitters.

    I think we are just looking at different perspectives. You're comparing players and trying to figure out the rank order. It seems like your rank order is focused on runs. That makes sense as runs win games and winning is the game.

    This makes perfect sense if I only consider HOFers who are the best players related win probability added. I can do that, but I think the scope here was whether Ichiro was worthy of the HoF and whether he should have been unanimous, close to unanimous, barely first ballot, not first ballot, limped in on the ballot, committee inductee, etc.

    So I don't think I am giving his hit totals too much merit because my perspective is only based on the accomplishment - the one where he strung together 10 seasons reaching and eclipsing that milestone. This is a different discussion than who's better. Brett Butler or Ichiro Suzuki.

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Maywood said:
    Ichiro made less errors than Kenny Lofton, but I saw Lofton do stuff Ichiro couldn't even dream of. Also as a CF Lofton made plays on more batted balls by nature of the position. Both players had good arms made plays after having the ball in their gloves, Ichiro had an advantage of being closer to the infield on most of

    his throws, though he did have a solid arm. What strikes me as odd about Ichiro is that he played almost all his games at RF, a position where the weakest outfielder is usually placed. I'd be curious to know why Seattle did that. If he was such a good glove(he was) and was fast with a good arm then why wasn't he in LF or CF.
    >
    >
    >
    >

    No, left field is where you put your weakest fielder, at least according to former Twins Left Fielder, Dan Gladdon.

    I'll absolutely agree that Loften was a better fly catcher in Center, but Ichiro had a CANNON for an arm and also unbelievably accurate.

    Right field is where you want your guy with a great arm. Roberto Clemente is one that immediately comes to mind.
    From google;

    For the sake of argument, let's say Lofton was a better defensive player. Even though Ichiro won 10 GG to Lofton's 4. dWAR says he was, but is that because he was better, or is it simply the automatic positional award for Center over Right?

    Next, I'm forced to agree that Lofton had a little more power than Ichiro, but still not much.

    I notice that the All Star voting agrees with me. Ichiro had 10 great seasons, Lofton 6.

    I still say a guy who plays at a high level for 12 consecutive years and basically NEVER misses a game deserves some extra consideration.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bgr said:

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:

    @bgr said:

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:

    @bgr said:
    It’s an incredible commitment to analogy at the very least.

    Sometimes even small differences can be vast and untouchable. The world record for men’s high jump is 2.45 meters. This is going to require some evolutionary luck to surpass. Second place is 2.43 meters. A world apart but on the same block. Living across the street there are 100 all at 2.42 meters. You can barely tell the houses apart if you don’t look closely. Not sure why the HoA requires them all to be painted beige.

    Small differences between Ichiro, Lofton, and Butler....but vast differences when you compare Ichiro to Mantle, Bonds, Ruth, etc, regardless of how many empty hits Ichiro has(and he has MORE total hits than each of those players and is not remotely close to being as good as any of them)....so not quite BGR. Nice try though.

    So yes, Ichiro lives on same block in same neighbotrhood as Butler and lofton. The true greats live on more expensive blocks with houses three times the size and value.

    Analogy sticks. Thanks for playing.

    I didn't say it was a bad analogy. It just lacks the resolution I was pointing to. If you squint your eyes they're all on the same block... that's abstraction. I do enjoy the debate especially how you conduct yourself when you disagree. A rare find.

    I'm not simple enough to think that most hits means best player, but someday.

    IF you keep squinting then every human with a bat in their hands are all on the same block.

    Still doesn't diminsh that Butler and Ichiro are neck and neck in every key offensive measurement...you know, the valid ones.

    Bonds, Mantle, and Ruth living it up in the nieghborhood. That is greatness.

    Butler might be a little jealous of the window that Ichiro upgraded his front door with, but they still reside on same block and same neighborhood. Ichiro's lawn is a little thicker than Lofton's because Ichiro was more durable. He was more durable but not better at baseball. Lofton was actually superior at baseball than Ichiro was.

    I disagree on your use of hit totals. You present them in a way that gives them much more merit than they truly have. Heck, over 2,000 of Ichiro's hits have the same value as a base on balls that so many people disdain on here for hitters.

    I think we are just looking at different perspectives. You're comparing players and trying to figure out the rank order. It seems like your rank order is focused on runs. That makes sense as runs win games and winning is the game.

    This makes perfect sense if I only consider HOFers who are the best players related win probability added. I can do that, but I think the scope here was whether Ichiro was worthy of the HoF and whether he should have been unanimous, close to unanimous, barely first ballot, not first ballot, limped in on the ballot, committee inductee, etc.

    So I don't think I am giving his hit totals too much merit because my perspective is only based on the accomplishment - the one where he strung together 10 seasons reaching and eclipsing that milestone. This is a different discussion than who's better. Brett Butler or Ichiro Suzuki.

    While both players were similar, you don't have to look to close to see ichiro was better than Butler.

    Brett got on base more often but got thrown out twice as often trying to steal. Ichiro also had a bit more power, but if we're focusing on runs scored, and leaving out who had better guys hitting behind them, it's close, but Ichiro was better.

    dWAR says Ichiro was better in the field too, for what that's worth.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In the end, they were close. How often does Bret Butler get some love. Butler was a prototypical lead off hitter of the time that was actually really good at the job and not just a guy who fit the profile so was put as a leadoff hitter. Dude actually got on base.

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:
    In the end, they were close. How often does Bret Butler get some love. Butler was a prototypical lead off hitter of the time that was actually really good at the job and not just a guy who fit the profile so was put as a leadoff hitter. Dude actually got on base.

    He was really good!

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • DarinDarin Posts: 7,325 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Anyone who makes the statement that left field is where you put your weakest fielder needs to follow with an asterisk* and say except for Alex Gordon.
    Alex was the best defensive left fielder in the history of baseball.
    Master at throwing out runners trying to stretch a single into a double.

  • countdouglascountdouglas Posts: 2,517 ✭✭✭✭✭

    .

  • TabeTabe Posts: 6,181 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Maywood said:
    Ichiro made less errors than Kenny Lofton, but I saw Lofton do stuff Ichiro couldn't even dream of. Also as a CF Lofton made plays on more batted balls by nature of the position. Both players had good arms made plays after having the ball in their gloves, Ichiro had an advantage of being closer to the infield on most of his throws, though he did have a solid arm. What strikes me as odd about Ichiro is that he played almost all his games at RF, a position where the weakest outfielder is usually placed. I'd be curious to know why Seattle did that. If he was such a good glove(he was) and was fast with a good arm then why wasn't he in LF or CF.

    Can't speak for later, but his first few years, Seattle had Mike Cameron in CF. And Cameron was elite there (and was about a foot short from being the first guy to hit 5 homers in a game). So that's why Ichiro was in RF. Also, his cannon arm was most useful there.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 11,523 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The fact that arguments (and very convincing ones) comparing Ichiro to Abreu, Lofton, Evans, Butler etc are being made should be proof in and of themselves that Ichiro was certainly not deserving of a near unanimous HOF election.

    George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.

  • bgrbgr Posts: 2,341 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:
    The fact that arguments (and very convincing ones) comparing Ichiro to Abreu, Lofton, Evans, Butler etc are being made should be proof in and of themselves that Ichiro was certainly not deserving of a near unanimous HOF election.

    Who decides the arguments are convincing?

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 11,523 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bgr said:

    @craig44 said:
    The fact that arguments (and very convincing ones) comparing Ichiro to Abreu, Lofton, Evans, Butler etc are being made should be proof in and of themselves that Ichiro was certainly not deserving of a near unanimous HOF election.

    Who decides the arguments are convincing?

    they are convincing to me. what about the arguments are not convincing to you?

    the simple fact that Ichiro is being compared with players like Abreu, lofton etc. is proof enough. To get >99% of the vote, you sure better being compared with Ruth, Williams, Cobb, Gehrig, Mantle, Mays etc.

    George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.

  • bgrbgr Posts: 2,341 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:

    @bgr said:

    @craig44 said:
    The fact that arguments (and very convincing ones) comparing Ichiro to Abreu, Lofton, Evans, Butler etc are being made should be proof in and of themselves that Ichiro was certainly not deserving of a near unanimous HOF election.

    Who decides the arguments are convincing?

    they are convincing to me. what about the arguments are not convincing to you?

    the simple fact that Ichiro is being compared with players like Abreu, lofton etc. is proof enough. To get >99% of the vote, you sure better being compared with Ruth, Williams, Cobb, Gehrig, Mantle, Mays etc.

    I think we just have different standards for proof and I think you have one argument that Ichiro wasn't the best player ever - maybe not even better than Brett Butler. I don't really think that comparison is all that interesting. I think he was a lock for other reasons, and the fact that he was on 393/394 (?) ballots supports that thesis more so than dissent proves him undeserving of unanimity.

    Ruth, Williams, Cobb, Gehrig, Mantle, Mays... these guys you mention should all have been unanimous. We shouldn't allow a system to be indefinitely limited by the lowest common denominator -- there's people who can't figure out escalators... I don't think it would be a slight on all time greats if we applied some common sense to keep the ballot clean YoY instead of some weird... wait your turn... nonsense.

    In the end, the whole thing worked out how you might expect. He got all but one person's vote. Good for him. Had it been borderline I would certainly have reconsidered my opinion which placed such significance on what Ichiro did his first 10 years in MLB.

  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:

    @bgr said:

    @craig44 said:
    The fact that arguments (and very convincing ones) comparing Ichiro to Abreu, Lofton, Evans, Butler etc are being made should be proof in and of themselves that Ichiro was certainly not deserving of a near unanimous HOF election.

    Who decides the arguments are convincing?

    they are convincing to me. what about the arguments are not convincing to you?

    the simple fact that Ichiro is being compared with players like Abreu, lofton etc. is proof enough. To get >99% of the vote, you sure better being compared with Ruth, Williams, Cobb, Gehrig, Mantle, Mays etc.

    Exactly

  • MaywoodMaywood Posts: 2,478 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That seems to be the point. It doesn't seem to bother people that Ichiro was elected to the HOF, the point of contention seems to be the high percentage of votes he received vs. the number of more worthy players who had votes withheld. My opinion has always been that the reasoning for that is a matter of spite.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 11,523 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In my opinion, the highest of high vote totals should be reserved for the most inner circle players. While I think Ichiro is a HOFer, in no way do I consider him inner circle. I feel the same way about Mariano. I still cant believe he was unanimous.

    George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.

  • bgrbgr Posts: 2,341 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Ralph Waldo Emerson once said that “a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds…”.

    There are some ridiculous voting paradigms from the past. Such as those who would never vote for someone in their first appearance on the ballot. Gamesmanship of managing the 5 percent threshold. Buffoonery in general. Do we need to construct an echelon based on this ignorance to appease some expectation of order and correctness?

    I think what Emerson was trying to say is to be brave and pragmatic in your thought and don’t compound mistakes.

  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 2,035 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bgr said:
    Ralph Waldo Emerson once said that “a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds…”.

    There are some ridiculous voting paradigms from the past. Such as those who would never vote for someone in their first appearance on the ballot. Gamesmanship of managing the 5 percent threshold. Buffoonery in general. Do we need to construct an echelon based on this ignorance to appease some expectation of order and correctness?

    I think what Emerson was trying to say is to be brave and pragmatic in your thought and don’t compound mistakes.

    That would be a good topic for Ichiro, Phillips, and Butler to discuss at their block party BBQ.

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