Ichiro one vote shy of unanimous...and he wasn't even as good as Bobby Abreu..
1948_Swell_Robinson
Posts: 1,998 ✭✭✭✭✭
Abreu had a lifetime .870 OPS and Ichiro never had a single season as good as Abreu's career average OPS!
First, lets get this out of the way..."Oh, but Ichiro missed years from playing in Japan." If you are going to count that, then you have to count Abreu's 3,143 lifetime PROFESSIONAL plate appearances in the United States before he played in MLB. Fair is fair.
Lets get to the upper cut knockout right off the bat. Run Expectancy. Includes all their offensive contributions(iincluding baserunning), and yes hit totals. It includes hit totals. Again, it includes hit totals. It just gives every other offensive event their just due as well.
Abreu 570 runs above average
Ichiro 146 runs above average.
Abreu 10,081 plate appearances
Ichiro 10,734 plate appearances
There is no universe where each of their outfield defense(of which the played same position) makes up that vast difference. Zero.
Oh, but Ichiro played in Japan and missed those years.
Ichiro averaged 22.4 Run Expectancy his first three years in MLB. So even if you give him that production for six years in Japan that is 134 more runs.
134 + 146 = 280.
280 is not 570.
Then don't forget to add Abreu's prior professional experience to his totals. Abreu had a ..293/.375/.452 slash line in the Minor Leagues...well above league average. So there is that. Add that to his 570. Fair is fair.
If you are still stuck on hit totals and want to ignore the more accurate measurement, ok great. We will ignore that and look at the old school measurements per your wish...
Runs Scored
Abreu 1,453
Ichiro 1,420
RBI
Abreu 1,363
Ichiro 780
Yes, Abreu trounced him...and Abreu did it in one less full season worth of plate appearances. One season less. Yes. A full season less worth of times stepping up to the plate. And he still beat him.
Oh, but, but the lineups. Introducing that is not old school...recognizing that factor starts your path toward Run Expectancy....
Abreu 570
Ichiro 146
Comments
I think he will get in via committee. This year was rough for him. Outside shot at the ballot I guess.
Maybe, but crazy to see an inferior player be one vote shy from unanimous...and on top of that to have people moan that he wasn't unanimous, lol.
The monumental difference between their Run Expectancy is too vast to chip away at Abreu's lead over Ichiro.
A quick look to one component of that is included in Run Expectancy is the players hitting with men on base and helps shed a little light on Abreu's vast lead.
Here are their hitting splits with men on base for their career:
Abreu .315/.423/.510
Ichiro .311/.395/.395
To add more context to that, keep in mind that Ichiro had 713 career infield singles to Abreu's 239. Infield singles have less run producing value than outfield singles.
The most ironic thing is that Ichiro's entire offensive value is mostly from being viewed as some great table setter yet Abreu got on base safely much more often than Ichiro did. That component is already measured in the run expectancy as well.
Those advanced measurements are in line with the most basic old school results and the leads mirror each other:
Runs Scored
Abreu 1,453
Ichiro 1,420
RBI
Abreu 1,363
Ichiro 780
Abreu is definitely underrated. I think Ichiro was fun to watch, had that great arm, was fast and harkened back to a day when batters held AVE. in higher esteem than OBP. He seems more like a player from the 70s-80s. He also had ZERO power. at all. and he made a ton of outs.
If I was a GM, I would take Abreu the player.
If I were an owner, I would take Ichiro. I am sure he brought far more revenue into the team coffers.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
>
>
>
I wouldn't call Ichiro "inferior". However, I too laugh at the people who think he should have been a unanimous selection, I think he should have gotten in, but not with an almost unanimous vote.
Offensively overrated, yes, like a lot of singles hitters, most of which I don't care for.
Ichiro was a great defensive player with a tremendous arm. Abreau was not.
Ichiro played extremely well his first 10 years. He averaged over 100 runs scored, over 35 bases stolen and over .300 batting average and won the GG every year, up to the age 36.
His power numbers were poor.
Abreau had a fantastic 7 year run from 1998-2004! 100+ runs scored, 40 doubles 24 HR, .525 SLG, 100 RBI, 30 SB. MUCH better hitter.
In the end, Abreau better hitter, but a sub par fielder. Ichiro, good hitter with below average power, but superior defensive player. Would have been nice to see what he could have done if he got here earlier, but he didn't.
I wouldn't be too bothered either way about Abreau getting in. He's borderline to me, but if he gets in, I'm not going to complain.
I don't actually know if I think Ichiro should have been unanimous or if I thought he was going to be unanimous. I read a story about how Ted Williams counseled Tony Gwynn on his swing to add more power and in his late 30s he had great results with it. I think the story went on to discuss Ichiro and how it had been suggested that he, with a similar stature to Gwynn, could have unlocked more pop/power by changing his swing a bit. The run he had in MLB for those first 9-10 seasons, starting with RoY and MVP was pretty damn impressive whether it was mostly singles or not.
I don't disagree with the assessment on Abreu or think the comparison is incorrectly rationalized. Abreu is getting screwed by the current situation. Guys like ARod and Ramirez are going to hog up these ballots even though they're unlikely to get anywhere via the ballot. There are still lots of wrongs to right. It would be easy to find 25 position players in the HoF who pale in comparison to Abreu.
I never really cared for Ichiro's style of hitting, a running start out of the box and slapping at the ball. Surely he was a prolific singles hitter but to that end he was very one dimensional as an offensive player. As the OP stated, his defense didn't really make up for what he lacked at the plate.
Maybe a better hitter to compare Ichiro to would be Rod Carew.
>
>
>
It would be easy to find 25 position players in the HoF who pale in comparison to Abreu.
>
>
>
Don't be too sure about "pale in comparison".
Not going to spend a whole lot of time, but in just looking at OPS+, he's tied with Jim Rice and (surprisingly) Kent Hrbek (among others).
I guess I should be pushing for Hrbek to get in. He was a SUPERB fielder!
Abreau is above a few HOFers, but most of them were great fielders or catchers.
Abreau seems really borderline. Seven great years and poor fielder?
Perhaps it's a bit hyperbolic, but there are around 60 position players (maybe more) in the HoF with less than 60 WAR.
Lazzeri, Klein, Fox, Cuyler, Hopper, Evers, Kiner, Chance, Rice (Sam), Kelley, Bancroft... These are the border guys maybe.
Guys like Utley, Jones, Abreu... all out-class them. I'm also not trying to say WAR is the only thing to look at. I really don't have any problem with the HoF.