Spinoff of my auction results post earlier today--NGC query
allnewsanchor
Posts: 170 ✭✭✭
Okay, veteran numismatists... lesson learned the hard way. But I have one more serious question.
Why does it seem, in the coin investing community, that NGC is the Rodney Dangerfield of the new Big 3? So many have now told me the NGC slab holds them back from better prices. Can someone tell me, rationally, why that is? When I started collecting rarer coins 30 years ago, I was told our host and NGC were roughly equivalent. Each is "the official grading service of" this or that. Not only do I live within an easy drive of NGC headquarters, but I have a coin club friend who has worked for them for years, including some as a grader.
So why the discrepancy? Favoritism? Greasing of the palm? Grudge against one vs. the other? PCGS is markedly superior?
Thanks to all who weighed in on my previous post and to all of you who might enlighten me on this.
"Brother, can you spare a dime?" (Especially a 1975 no S proof?)
Comments
for some series they grade a half point to a point higher? and their plus and star add to the confusion.
NGC has a different grading standard than PCGS, and the market seems to agree and disagree with their standard depending on the series.
Collector of Capped Bust Halves, SLQ's, Commems, and random cool stuff! @davidv_numismatics on Instagram
I went and checked. My most recent auction March 2024 had 16 coins in it. 1 ICG, 3 ANAC, 6 PCGS, 6 NGC. This was an unusual auction for me because it is the only time all my coins sold for more than my original expectation (and a profit on each.) However, every coin was one I had owned more than 15 years. I am a lousy math guy but holders did not seem to make a difference. Ironically the ICG topped them all. James
While I don’t pretend to have the answer to this, my opinion is what a few others responded with already. NGC is absolutely great in many series; and have overgraded compared to market others. For example, a coin in a certain series may have 3 PCGS at a grade level and NGC has 54. This may impact the market and make those three pieces much stronger even with the same grade.
While there is some science to this; another factor really is the coin itself. There are $400 and $4000 VF30s in the colonial series that I focus on. The grade is the same, but the individual coin is really what speaks. CAC sticker was going in this direction, but even with multiple grading services over multiple series, at the end of the day, the coins often speak louder than grade. When they dont, there is often a reason.
There's a lot that goes into it, but there was a period some time ago where NGC was markedly looser grade wise than PCGS. PCGS gained the upper hand as far as favoritism went during that time, and despite NGC mostly have correcting the problem it seems a lot of the original bias remains. Prices generally reflect a trend of higher PCGS vs. NGC prices because of this.
With that said.....
Collectors who know what they're going have made fortunes playing the crack and cross game. Below is one of my favorite examples (this is the exact same coin):
When you go from a $600 widget:
To a $300k mega-rarity:
Coin Photographer.
Those with as many years in the hobby-industry as you have should already realize that there is no single grading standard for US coins.
There is the PCGS standard, the NGC standard, the CACG standard and the ANACS, ICG, SEGS and other standards. Long ago (perhaps thirty years ago) NGC shot themselves in the foot with respect to how they grade and are perceived with respect to PCGS. At that time in the early and mid 1990s NGC started to award coins with poor luster, unattractive toning and generally negative eye appeal with higher grades because of surface preservation while PCGS started to reward coins for terrific luster, wonderful toning and great eye appeal even if they didn't have such pristine surfaces. The market agreed with how PCGS was grading and not with how NGC was grading and responded with a bifurcation in values around that time that has never truly resolved into a single valuation.
Are there outliers with respect to coins graded by each service? Of course. Are there great coins to be found in any number of TPG holders. Again, of course. However, if you go through seemingly endless numbers of coins and how they are graded you will find that over the years PCGS graded more along the lines of how the greater hobby-industry valued while NGC did not always adhere to those preferences.
One way to mitigate any disrespect or suspicion a more valuable coin might have when residing in an NGC holder is to send it to CAC for a sticker. I realize this is polarizing to some (and I truly can't figure out why it should be so difficult) but for a relatively few bucks you have a generally respected organization that can help level the grading playing field for you and also help generate more when your coins are sold.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
In addition to the above you have the registry bias. If a collector wants a coin for the PCGS registry they have no choice but to buy a PCGS graded coin or play the crossover game, which can be costly. That aspect plus the absence of CAC approval on your coins, this last one can really make or break the value of an NGC holder.
I personally think that NGC is the better grading company currently vs PCGS (due in part to the problems with gradeflation that was shown a couple of posts above), but the market is still skewed, and the registry is still a big part of that.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
My opinion,
Most people prefer the aesthetics of pcgs slabs over ngc slabs.
Realistically, there isn't much difference in the quality of grading. I've had ngc coins upgrade as well as not cross at grade.
There are plenty of dogs out there in pcgs slabs also.
The best part of pcgs is not necessarily the graders, but the marketers that bring in the collectors.
Anacs is considered a third tier but I have heard cacg pulled graders from them which I found very intriguing if true.
You didn't say in your previous post, and you don't have to here but can you compare your original purchase costs to net sales on gc?
I just want to respond to something written in a previous post-
"Anacs is considered a third tier but I have heard cacg pulled graders from them which I found very intriguing if true."
The above quote, if true, should not be surprising at all. The job of a TPG grader is to grade according to their TPG employer standards; it isn't to grade to some other standards. Any competent grader can be taught to learn the standards of their employer and they are then expected to adhere to those standards.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
“So why the discrepancy? Favoritism? Greasing of the palm? Grudge against one vs. the other? PCGS is markedly superior?”
Unfortunately, I believe a mindset like this will result in additional future “disappointments”…
For years, I have been married coins in PCGS holders. Slabbed, raw, or via cross.
My limited skills were honed to a certain standard, and enjoy the test and pursuit of perfection.
I take the ANA grading class at a show and was disappointed they were all NGC coins.
Oh well... it did not matter and our table crushed the grading game.
I had my standards.
NGC had their standards.
The judge and jury (Fivaz) made CAC look conservative.
To win we tightened waaayyy up.
I forget how Bill phrased it... (and it made the trip, expenses, and time invested worthwhile) but something to the effect TPG's place a value on the slab in addition to a grade.
Intentional or not.
You had a great venue and a more sophisticated bidding class.
There could be many reasons including expense of crossing coins, personal standards, registry
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TomB's response stands out.
I have certainly had superb coins in all 'major' holders, but I also notice a clear differentiation when I set up a table at a local or regional show . . . my NGC coins get remarkably fewer looks or questions. that has led to my following the market and minimizing my NGC stock. However, I get offered many more NGC coins at GSB-type prices when I search or reach out to the sellers I deal with. People generally (in MY opinion---your experiences may differ) seem to discount NGC coins, perhaps due to the reasoning TomB discusses.
I have no dog in the fight. I just respond to obvious market factors from my limited perspective.
Drunner
It’s a combination of factors that has made people say that NGC generally does worse when selling compared to PCGS in the same grade. This includes:
1) grading standards-some of it is just perceived while some of it is true. There are overgraded and undergraded coins in all tpg slabs but a few experiences can really stand out (even if the majority of coins are fairly graded)
2) marketing-certain bigger dealers have helped push PCGS to the top (Legend for example has been a longtime proponent of PCGS, plus CAC)
3) registry sets-partly marketing too but the PCGS registry set has some of the bigger players and they pay up to get the coin in the slab needed for their set
4) repetition-enough people say it and with enough people believing, something can become reality
This explains a lot, Tom. Thank you. One of the two half dimes got a 65 from NGC despite some unattractive toning. The 3 cent silver also got a 65 from NGC despite some spots (I still think it's a beautiful piece). See my prior discussion post if you don't know about the coins I sent in. Thanks again.
"Brother, can you spare a dime?" (Especially a 1975 no S proof?)
As usual, Tom makes excellent points.
Still, as I know he’d agree, not all PCGS coins graded 65 (or higher) are free of unattractive toning or spots. Don’t place too much emphasis on or make assumptions based upon very small sample sizes.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Sure. These were all purchased in 1994. First 4 already slabbed by NGC.
1873 3 cent PR65
Paid 1250
Net 1865
1828 Cap bust dime MS64 (green bean)
Paid 3000
Net 4501
1854 Half dime (green bean) MS65
Paid 1500
Net 827
1868 Half dime PR65
Paid 1300
Net 788
1876 Trade $ UNC Details
Paid 445 raw, graded by NGC
Net 589
The XF45 1895-S Morgan was an inheritance from my grandfather, so it was pure profit.
"Brother, can you spare a dime?" (Especially a 1975 no S proof?)
On average, NGC’s grading standards are slightly lower than the PCGS standards. This situation has been made worse by crossovers. Many properly graded, really nice NGC coins have crossed over to PCGS. The “NGC dogs” stay in their kennels which tarnishes the company’s image.
NGC has graded some great coins. My 1796 No Stars Quarter Eagle, Pan-Pac $50 round and 1839 Gobrecht Dollar are in NGC holders. As you can see, I have a vested interest in NGC coins doing well in the market. But I also have to be a realist.
As a practical matter, I buy the coin, not the holder. That’s why I have a fair number of NGC holdered coins. I rarely buy anything but PCGS or NGC graded coins.
I honestly don't know, so I was throwing several things against the wall to see if one would stick. These were questions, thus the question marks, not statements of opinion.
"Brother, can you spare a dime?" (Especially a 1975 no S proof?)
I think @TomB @BillJones and @U1chicago have really nailed it. I think the preference for PCGS has grown in the 22 years I have been collecting slabbed coins. Even if both companies had exactly the same standards, the preferred optics, branding, registry, or any non-coin centric preference will give rise to asymmetric crossovers and then reinforce the idea that NGC is looser. From my own experience, the difference in prices (and grading) is most noticeable at the high end of the spectrum. For example, with Morgans or Roosevelt dimes where 67 is fairly common but 68 is top pop or close to it, NGC coins will generally trade for substantial discounts to their PCGS counterparts. Of course, that is where the registry matters most so that is consistent with the reasoning above, but I suspect the pop reports would generally reveal more examples at NGC than at PCGS.
All this considered, if the coin is great, the holder matters much less because people are going to want it and worry less about the risk of crossing (if that’s important to them).
This sums it up the best to me as to why NGC coins overall get looked at as second class coins.
Donato
Donato's Complete US Type Set ---- Donato's Dansco 7070 Modified Type Set ---- Donato's Basic U.S. Coin Design Set
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This is an NGC graded MS-65 1907 High Relief $20 gold. Do you think that an MS-65 graded by any other service would be better?
Narratives can be powerful and issues can be framed that really create generalizations that are often tough to overcome. That is my Readers’ Digest condensed response.
My thoughts are that coins in holders are too often looked at by the holder they currently reside instead of what is inside the slab- the coin matters. This in part explains the crack out strategy… find an attractive coin that has the look and appeal and cross it to another TPG service and seek a sticker pending the crossover result. And by doing this, a sharp grader has just changed the narrative and the perception for that coin which… right or wrong… is what seems to matter.
Recognizing what is truly special is truly a special talent. And very few people have this talent.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Not mentioned yet but the message boards are more active here than ATS as well as the registry sets. Over there the registry sets have points for each coin by grade and which do not relate to much of anything.
The point system is heavily biased toward high grade moderns. You get a lot more bag for the buck in registry points for those than you do for rarity. Having said that, I prefer the NGC Registry format.
Many good reasons why noted above, but think we all agree the bottom line truth, on average, is PCGS trade higher then NGC and are in more demand. Posted this before, I had to raise $10,000+ for my son's senior college tuition and needed it fast. I went to one of the larger NJ B&M dealers who I became friendly with about 100 Morgan slabs. He took every GSA I had, almost every PCGS slab, even the common dates, about half the NGC - the better dates or higher grades, and no ANACS slabs, even if a key date. Wouldn't even look at the ANAC slabs and all were the soap bars. He was just looking to flip quickly for a profit and help me out.
On the flip side when I started collecting about 20 years ago I mostly bought ANACs and NGC coins as they were always cheaper to win in auction, even if as nice or better looking then the PCGS coins offered. Win some lose some.
@coastaljerseyguy . I have never understood how dealers treat small anac holder coins. many years ago I came home from work just as JJ Teaparty posted 3 anac proof Indian cent coins (all three had low grades 60, 62, 62), and electric blue tones, but they only wanted a $100 dollars each. after realizing I could not form a proof collections I sold those coins on Teletrade and came away with over $1,500. james
In my observation, the market, for the last year, has been favoring NGC newly graded coins over PCGS. Particularly dollars. This is evident in wholesalers buy prices, which have favored NGC.
Gold also seems nicer now.
Just observations.
Surf
Wait a second...are you saying that NGC was actually TOUGHER on the SLIDER-type coins that are formally graded MS and low-to-mid 60's...but really should be AU-58 and below ?
This is what I implied more or less in some of the previous long threads here on wear/friction/rub....namely....should a single amount of rub on a single high point automatically drop a coin down the the AU bucke even if the stike is fantastic....the luster is blazing....the fields clean....etc. I waded into a battle between heavyweights and just kinda slunked away, as Leon from CYE would say.
Just to be clear...are you saying that NGC may have graded TOO TOUGH and/or not weighted the things that the hobby and collectors valued, i.e., luster ?
Great point.
I know nothing about 1938-S Mercury Dimes....but yeah, a coin going up 500-fold on a 1 point increment at such a key grading inflection point is worrisome and/or suspicious.
The thing is....if it WAS legit...if the coin was just rush-graded or something the 1st time and was definitely undergraded (maybe it had a Green or Gold CAC or would have gotten them ?)...it won't appear that way just because of the coin's jump in value. By definition, it looks suspicious without any explanation from both graders the 1st and 2nd times.
65? Nobody's going to say that one's overgraded!
NGC Dogs can stay in their kennels but PCGS Dogs just get sold and resold time after time again. I really like an NGC coin in an older holder with a CAC sticker (the coin is still upright in the holder).
Interesting thing is that it is a new holder not an older NGC holder. It’s like winning a lottery ticket to get the huge upgrade, just luck. But skill for the buyer to see the upgrade potential and crack it out