I recall hearing that someone who had a set of canceled obverse and reverse dies from the Olympics coins that were sold by the mint started striking "medals" with them and the feds stepped in and "convinced" them to stop.
@JBK said:
I recall hearing that someone who had a set of canceled obverse and reverse dies from the Olympics coins that were sold by the mint started striking "medals" with them and the feds stepped in and "convinced" them to stop.
That rings a bell. I think that's also why subsequent die sales completely obliterated the surface of the die.
All I see this accomplishing is ensuring that the everyman collector will probably never have a chance to own one of the "special" coins. If the privy coins had been randomly salted in amongst the total mintage, he may have been able to scrape together enough to buy one of the coins & have a chance at a windfall. They have made sure it can't happen.
@ms71 said:
All I see this accomplishing is ensuring that the everyman collector will probably never have a chance to own one of the "special" coins. If the privy coins had been randomly salted in amongst the total mintage, he may have been able to scrape together enough to buy one of the coins & have a chance at a windfall. They have made sure that this can't happen.
I understand your position.
Now, consider it from the Mint's perspective. They have already provided the "everyman collector" (and the ABPP dealers) a "chance at a windfall" with the silver medals. This time around they are going to keep the "windfall" for themselves via the auction.
In my humble opinion, having dealt with uncancelled dies, cancelled dies, dies certified by NGC, and striking restrikes, these 2 dies are at least worth half of the price realized.
Currently the bid on this lot (the first struck and the 2 dies) is $170k plus buyer premium. My estimate for this is a minimum of $250k + BP.
mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
@Byers said:
Most likely there will be private restrikes.
In my humble opinion, having dealt with uncancelled dies, cancelled dies, dies certified by NGC, and striking restrikes, these 2 dies are at least worth half of the price realized.
Currently the bid on this lot (the first struck and the 2 dies) is $170k plus buyer premium. My estimate for this is a minimum of $250k + BP.
No BP, or state sales tax on this auction. Just hammer + shipping.
mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
@ms71 said:
All I see this accomplishing is ensuring that the everyman collector will probably never have a chance to own one of the "special" coins. If the privy coins had been randomly salted in amongst the total mintage, he may have been able to scrape together enough to buy one of the coins & have a chance at a windfall. They have made sure it can't happen.
Wow that's a glass half empty look at the Flowing Hair reissue. Buy the gold coin, why do you need a privy? Buy the Silver.
Would it not make sense for the owner of the SP66 '94 to buy the first Flowing Hair gold coin? Keep 'em together I say.
@ms71 said:
All I see this accomplishing is ensuring that the everyman collector will probably never have a chance to own one of the "special" coins. If the privy coins had been randomly salted in amongst the total mintage, he may have been able to scrape together enough to buy one of the coins & have a chance at a windfall. They have made sure it can't happen.
Wow that's a glass half empty look at the Flowing Hair reissue. Buy the gold coin, why do you need a privy? Buy the Silver.
Would it not make sense for the owner of the SP66 '94 to buy the first Flowing Hair gold coin? Keep 'em together I say.
Not a glass half empty look at all from my perspective, just simple truth. (disclaimer: I personally have no interest whatever in acquiring any of the FH issues). The everyman collector has been frozen out from any chance at the "special" gold coin. Yes, he can buy the silver. Why would he need a gold privy? Let him eat cake.
@ms71 said:
All I see this accomplishing is ensuring that the everyman collector will probably never have a chance to own one of the "special" coins. If the privy coins had been randomly salted in amongst the total mintage, he may have been able to scrape together enough to buy one of the coins & have a chance at a windfall. They have made sure it can't happen.
Exactly. These are not meant for the every man collector, and are designed to provide a windfall for the Mint. Not for every men, or even dealers. It is what it is.
@ms71 said:
All I see this accomplishing is ensuring that the everyman collector will probably never have a chance to own one of the "special" coins. If the privy coins had been randomly salted in amongst the total mintage, he may have been able to scrape together enough to buy one of the coins & have a chance at a windfall. They have made sure that this can't happen.
I understand your position.
Now, consider it from the Mint's perspective. They have already provided the "everyman collector" (and the ABPP dealers) a "chance at a windfall" with the silver medals. This time around they are going to keep the "windfall" for themselves via the auction.
Does the Mint have a goal to provide windfall profits?
@ms71 said:
All I see this accomplishing is ensuring that the everyman collector will probably never have a chance to own one of the "special" coins. If the privy coins had been randomly salted in amongst the total mintage, he may have been able to scrape together enough to buy one of the coins & have a chance at a windfall. They have made sure that this can't happen.
I understand your position.
Now, consider it from the Mint's perspective. They have already provided the "everyman collector" (and the ABPP dealers) a "chance at a windfall" with the silver medals. This time around they are going to keep the "windfall" for themselves via the auction.
Does the Mint have a goal to provide windfall profits?
"Goal"? No.
Its mission is to provide circulating coinage to facilitate commerce. The numismatic program is nothing more than a side gig that is required to be self-sustaining, i.e., not require taxpayer subsidies. Producing coins for collectors is also not a "goal."
Windfalls are nice when they present themselves, but are not a goal. Similarly, providing windfalls to others is also not a goal.
The fact that there is a market for this, and they have woken up to that fact after 232 years of existence, is a good thing. It allows them to generate windfalls for the US Treasury at no cost to taxpayers, or to any collectors who are priced out of this end of the market.
mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
The U. S. Mint will have StacksBowers auction cancelled dies from previous issues of U.S. classic vintage coins struck in gold. And upcoming issues as well.
mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
1st: I'd like to say that I've been here for over 20 years and on Ebay for more than 25 years. I collect and/or have collected many things including coins/stamps/glass/cars/sportscards, etc. When I post it's usually very infrequently. I only brought this up because I JUST discovered out this fact about Stacks selling EVERY gold privy coin that the US Mint made for this issue. I don't recall seeing this information posted anywhere/anytime in the past, but I don't read everything about every subject.
2nd: I've been purchasing coins including the gold coins, proof sets and the CC Morgans from the US Mint since the 1970's. It's only the past years that the mint has had "lottery" type items where you can buy items and get the instant profits. We as coin "collectors/flippers/dealers" do have advance notice of when these issues are going to be released and know which items will be the good buys instead of the goodbyes to your instant profits. I've bought a great many of items that I wanted for my collection and still have to this day. Many/most of these items I can buy from dealers today for less than what I originally paid.
3rd: On the other hand, YES, there have been a few times that I have won the "lottery" on a few coins/sets. Such as the silver privy medals. No, I didn't get any privy coins, but I did get a couple, searched them and when I didn't find the "golden goose" I resold them for a $75 profit each, so that helped my cost average on mint purchases.
4th: I have been purchasing coins from all the major auction houses including Stacks, and didn't know about them selling ALL these golden privy coins. I have purchased some very low population coins in my series for far less than half of "book price". If I could, I would have paid well over book for these coins, which I have in the past, but on some of these sites there appears to be little interest in my series so that helps me. Although I'm on this site every month, it's only been recently that I discovered on their site that they had them ALL for sale. That's when I posted here to let others know.
5th: Knowledge is power. We should all be here to SHARE our knowledge here and NOT beat each other up or down. I know we can't all get along but putting our differences aside and trying to answer questions, post information on new issues or concerns, this would allow more individuals to feel more accepted here and feel free to try and obtain more knowledge about this great hobby. Where else can you literally start a new hobby for a single penny. That person might someday be the next owner of an 1804 silver dollar. Someone will be. Afterall, we ALL started somewhere, right? I really restarted collecting coins very seriously after my Dad gave me his Lincoln set to complete since I started using the internet to fill in holes for my other sets. So far I have complete raw sets of Lincolns in MS and proof from 1939-date, Roosies in MS, Franklins in MS and proofs, Kennedys in MS and proof Isenhour dollars in MS and proof, State quarters in MS. A great majority came from circulation, except the Lincolns which came from my Dad, the 09-S VDB came from a fellow board member in XF-45 with great toning! Thanks Moondoggie! Most of my proof coins came from dealers/ trades, and online auctions like Ebay. Made a LOT of FRIENDS while completing these sets. Thanks to ALL for your help and sorry to be so long winded. If it's too long, just pass my other long posts. Thanks for reading!
You only live life once, enjoy it like it's your last day. It just MIGHT be!
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
Retail arbitrage.
I'm bidding with plans on reselling.
In that case, you are going to be disappointed. They are all going to go for full retail, and when you see the prices, you are not going to see an arbitrage opportunity lucrative enough to justify the risk involved in tying up the capital, which will not be insignificant.
Did you play back in 2022? I don't need to tell you that auctions like this are very different from buying direct from the Mint, when you just know the issue is going to be hot and they are giving us a flip if you are lucky enough to get in.
There is no "retail arbitrage" opportunity with hundreds of fungible lots and thousands, or tens of thousands, of bidders from around the world in a well publicized public auction. It's also very different from a typical auction where you have a chance to catch people sleeping and pick off a lot here and there.
With this, lots of people are going to be playing, and many of the lots are fungible. With pros competing for each and every lot, because it's the only way for them to get their hands on them. Just no retail arbitrage, unless you think you can compete with the Big Boys, with their access to capital and marketing muscle.
This is, at the end of the day, a very expensive niche product. I can't imagine who is going to be buying from you on eBay after the fact, at a premium to what they go for at the auction. I think the TV guys might buy some to market to their private client lists, but I also cannot imagine the price point, or amount they would have available for sale, would lend itself to marketing on HSN.
Good luck, but I just don't see the opportunity. Folks with the means and interest will, for the most part, be competing with you on the 12th.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
Retail arbitrage.
I'm bidding with plans on reselling.
In that case, you are going to be disappointed. They are all going to go for full retail, and when you see the prices, you are not going to see an arbitrage opportunity lucrative enough to justify the risk involved in tying up the capital, which will not be insignificant.
Did you play back in 2022? I don't need to tell you that auctions like this are very different from buying direct from the Mint, when you just know the issue is going to be hot and they are giving us a flip if you are lucky enough to get in.
There is no "retail arbitrage" opportunity with hundreds of fungible lots and thousands, or tens of thousands, of bidders from around the world in a well publicized public auction. It's also very different from a typical auction where you have a chance to catch people sleeping and pick off a lot here and there.
With this, lots of people playing, and many of the lots are fungible. With pros competing for each and every lot, because it's the only way for them to get their hands on them. Just no retail arbitrage, unless you think you can compete with the Big Boys, with their access to capital and marketing muscle.
You're kidding, right?
You're telling all the dealers how to run their business? There's a reason why dealers are bidding in this auction and other auctions like it. At the right number, there is an arbitrage opportunity or do you think there will never be another sale made after the 12th of December.
You contradict yourself within your own post. The Big Boys are bidding to resell them, are they not?
I buy at auction and resell all the time. Thank you for thinking that you know more about the coin business than all the dealers.
Lmao. I really want to like you. However, you're becoming a caricature.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
Retail arbitrage.
I'm bidding with plans on reselling.
In that case, you are going to be disappointed. They are all going to go for full retail, and when you see the prices, you are not going to see an arbitrage opportunity lucrative enough to justify the risk involved in tying up the capital, which will not be insignificant.
Did you play back in 2022? I don't need to tell you that auctions like this are very different from buying direct from the Mint, when you just know the issue is going to be hot and they are giving us a flip if you are lucky enough to get in.
There is no "retail arbitrage" opportunity with hundreds of fungible lots and thousands, or tens of thousands, of bidders from around the world in a well publicized public auction. It's also very different from a typical auction where you have a chance to catch people sleeping and pick off a lot here and there.
With this, lots of people playing, and many of the lots are fungible. With pros competing for each and every lot, because it's the only way for them to get their hands on them. Just no retail arbitrage, unless you think you can compete with the Big Boys, with their access to capital and marketing muscle.
You're kidding, right?
You're telling all the dealers how to run their business? There's a reason why dealers are bidding in this auction and other auctions like it. At the right number, there is an arbitrage opportunity or do you think there will never be another sale made after the 12th of December.
You contradict yourself within your own post. The Big Boys are bidding to resell them, are they not?
Lmao. I really want to like you. However, you're becoming a caricature.
No, I'm not kidding. Let's see how it plays out. I'm not telling anyone how to run anything.
Dealers make their money buying from the Mint at a slight discount to retail, getting them graded at a huge discount, and then retailing to the public at a healthy margin. None of that is going to be happening here.
For the record, there has only ever been one other auction like this. And then, I don't remember seeing the lots being offered for resale en masse. Dealers who bought by and large resold privately. 700 lots were offered. I don't remember seeing any offered on anyone's website, or on eBay. To this day, I don't know if any of those lots held their value, other than maybe through the rise in precious metal prices since the summer of 2022.
There are only 230 total. No Big Boy is going to be getting more than a few, because if they actually outbid all retail bidders for all 230 of them, they will by definition be paying more than retail is willing to pay, and that will involve a huge risk, with big money involved, that they will have 230 buyers not involved in the auction willing to pay even more after the fact. This is not one specific coin, with a list of buyers to market it to, where they know they will have a taker.
Bottom line -- it's not a wholesale auction, so I just don't see a retail arbitrage opportunity for a small time dealer. Please prove me wrong.
Yes, Big Boys will be playing, as will Little Boys like you, and establishing a floor to make sure none of us gets a deal. But, no, there is not going to be any room for vest pocket dealers to have a retail arbitrage opportunity. Big Boys might buy to inventory for resale to people on lists they curate who overpay for things. Do you have such a list?
If not, who are you going to be flipping to at $20K+ who doesn't know about the auction? If you think you're going to be buying at $9K to flip at $10K, I think you are going to be very disappointed.
If it's anything like the last time, bidding will be spirited, and pricing will be full retail. Knowledgeable retail with means will be participating, as will people on SB's marketing list from around the world.
Large dealers will make sure no one gets any bargains, but they have access to capital you, as a small time reseller, don't have. As well as an ability to resell at higher prices than you do.
I'm not telling anyone how to do anything. I happen to think you are very sharp. I was wrong about the gold and silver, thinking demand would not be as strong as it was. Of course, I was working off bad Product Limit information.
No such issues for me on this one. Now, I think demand will be through the roof.
If I turn out to be wrong again, I'm sure you'll let me know. Which won't be necessary, since I will be there watching it in real time.
Otherwise, please just report back confirming that your bids were insufficient, and that there was no arbitrage opportunity for you at the hammer prices. That's my prediction, since you already know I think hammer prices are going to be far higher than you do.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
Retail arbitrage.
I'm bidding with plans on reselling.
In that case, you are going to be disappointed. They are all going to go for full retail, and when you see the prices, you are not going to see an arbitrage opportunity lucrative enough to justify the risk involved in tying up the capital, which will not be insignificant.
Did you play back in 2022? I don't need to tell you that auctions like this are very different from buying direct from the Mint, when you just know the issue is going to be hot and they are giving us a flip if you are lucky enough to get in.
There is no "retail arbitrage" opportunity with hundreds of fungible lots and thousands, or tens of thousands, of bidders from around the world in a well publicized public auction. It's also very different from a typical auction where you have a chance to catch people sleeping and pick off a lot here and there.
With this, lots of people playing, and many of the lots are fungible. With pros competing for each and every lot, because it's the only way for them to get their hands on them. Just no retail arbitrage, unless you think you can compete with the Big Boys, with their access to capital and marketing muscle.
You're kidding, right?
You're telling all the dealers how to run their business? There's a reason why dealers are bidding in this auction and other auctions like it. At the right number, there is an arbitrage opportunity or do you think there will never be another sale made after the 12th of December.
You contradict yourself within your own post. The Big Boys are bidding to resell them, are they not?
Lmao. I really want to like you. However, you're becoming a caricature.
No, I'm not kidding. Let's see how it plays out. I'm not telling anyone how to run anything.
Dealers make their money buying from the Mint at a slight discount to retail, getting them graded at a huge discount, and then retailing to the public at a healthy margin. None of that is going to be happening here.
For the record, there has only ever been one other auction like this. And then, I don't remember seeing the lots being offered for resale en masse. Dealers who bought by and large resold privately. 700 lots were offered. I don't remember seeing any offered on anyone's website, or on eBay. To this day, I don't know if any of those lots held their value, other than maybe through the rise in precious metal prices since the summer of 2022.
There are only 230 total. No Big Boy is going to be getting more than a few, because if they actually outbid all retail bidders for all 230 of them, they will by definition be paying more than retail is willing to pay, and that will involve a huge risk, with big money involved, that they will have 230 buyers not involved in the auction willing to pay even more after the fact. This is not one specific coin, with a list of buyers to market it to, where they know they will have a taker.
Bottom line -- it's not a wholesale auction, so I just don't see a retail arbitrage opportunity for a small time dealer. Please prove me wrong.
Yes, Big Boys will be playing, as will Little Boys like you, and establishing a floor to make sure none of us gets a deal. But, no, there is not going to be any room for vest pocket dealers to have a retail arbitrage opportunity. Big Boys might buy to inventory for resale to people on lists they curate who overpay for things. Do you have such a list?
If not, who are you going to be flipping to at $20K+ who doesn't know about the auction? If you think you're going to be buying at $9K to flip at $10K, I think you are going to be very disappointed.
If it's anything like the last time, bidding will be spirited, and pricing will be full retail. Knowledgeable retail with means will be participating, as will people on SB's marketing list from around the world.
Large dealers will make sure no one gets any bargains, but they have access to capital you, as a small time reseller, don't have. As well as an ability to resell at higher prices than you do.
I'm not telling anyone how to do anything. I happen to think you are very sharp. I was wrong about the gold and silver, thinking demand would not be as strong as it was. Of course, I was working off bad Product Limit information.
No such issues for me on this one. Now, I think demand will be through the roof.
If I turn out to be wrong again, I'm sure you'll let me know. Which won't be necessary, since I will be there watching it in real time.
Otherwise, please just report back confirming that your bids were insufficient, and that there was no arbitrage opportunity for you at the hammer prices. That's my prediction, since you already know I think hammer prices are going to be far higher than you do.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
Retail arbitrage.
I'm bidding with plans on reselling.
In that case, you are going to be disappointed. They are all going to go for full retail, and when you see the prices, you are not going to see an arbitrage opportunity lucrative enough to justify the risk involved in tying up the capital, which will not be insignificant.
Did you play back in 2022? I don't need to tell you that auctions like this are very different from buying direct from the Mint, when you just know the issue is going to be hot and they are giving us a flip if you are lucky enough to get in.
There is no "retail arbitrage" opportunity with hundreds of fungible lots and thousands, or tens of thousands, of bidders from around the world in a well publicized public auction. It's also very different from a typical auction where you have a chance to catch people sleeping and pick off a lot here and there.
With this, lots of people playing, and many of the lots are fungible. With pros competing for each and every lot, because it's the only way for them to get their hands on them. Just no retail arbitrage, unless you think you can compete with the Big Boys, with their access to capital and marketing muscle.
You're kidding, right?
You're telling all the dealers how to run their business? There's a reason why dealers are bidding in this auction and other auctions like it. At the right number, there is an arbitrage opportunity or do you think there will never be another sale made after the 12th of December.
You contradict yourself within your own post. The Big Boys are bidding to resell them, are they not?
Lmao. I really want to like you. However, you're becoming a caricature.
No, I'm not kidding. Let's see how it plays out. I'm not telling anyone how to run anything.
Dealers make their money buying from the Mint at a slight discount to retail, getting them graded at a huge discount, and then retailing to the public at a healthy margin. None of that is going to be happening here.
For the record, there has only ever been one other auction like this. And then, I don't remember seeing the lots being offered for resale en masse. Dealers who bought by and large resold privately. 700 lots were offered. I don't remember seeing any offered on anyone's website, or on eBay. To this day, I don't know if any of those lots held their value, other than maybe through the rise in precious metal prices since the summer of 2022.
There are only 230 total. No Big Boy is going to be getting more than a few, because if they actually outbid all retail bidders for all 230 of them, they will by definition be paying more than retail is willing to pay, and that will involve a huge risk, with big money involved, that they will have 230 buyers not involved in the auction willing to pay even more after the fact. This is not one specific coin, with a list of buyers to market it to, where they know they will have a taker.
Bottom line -- it's not a wholesale auction, so I just don't see a retail arbitrage opportunity for a small time dealer. Please prove me wrong.
Yes, Big Boys will be playing, as will Little Boys like you, and establishing a floor to make sure none of us gets a deal. But, no, there is not going to be any room for vest pocket dealers to have a retail arbitrage opportunity. Big Boys might buy to inventory for resale to people on lists they curate who overpay for things. Do you have such a list?
If not, who are you going to be flipping to at $20K+ who doesn't know about the auction? If you think you're going to be buying at $9K to flip at $10K, I think you are going to be very disappointed.
If it's anything like the last time, bidding will be spirited, and pricing will be full retail. Knowledgeable retail with means will be participating, as will people on SB's marketing list from around the world.
Large dealers will make sure no one gets any bargains, but they have access to capital you, as a small time reseller, don't have. As well as an ability to resell at higher prices than you do.
I'm not telling anyone how to do anything. I happen to think you are very sharp. I was wrong about the gold and silver, thinking demand would not be as strong as it was. Of course, I was working off bad Product Limit information.
No such issues for me on this one. Now, I think demand will be through the roof.
If I turn out to be wrong again, I'm sure you'll let me know. Which won't be necessary, since I will be there watching it in real time.
Otherwise, please just report back confirming that your bids were insufficient, and that there was no arbitrage opportunity for you at the hammer prices. That's my prediction, since you already know I think hammer prices are going to be far higher than you do.
I see no reason to point out your errors anymore.
Fair enough. But, with all due respect, I think it is you who is contradicting himself. You have been talking these down since they were announced, and yet now seem to believe there is going to be a flip for you.
Which is really just another way of saying you don't think SB, with all its marketing muscle and experience, can extract maximum value for its consignor, and that they are going to be leaving a little meat on the bone for flippers. Good luck with that.
If you are right and these turn out to be no big deal, you won't have a flip. And, if I am right and they go for moon money, you also won't have a flip.
Big Boys are likely going to be buying trophies on consignment for clients, and otherwise just keeping bidding honest for the rest of us while accumulating a little inventory to gouge a few clients on. My experience from the last time is that the lots will be going for full value, whatever that turns out to be, and there won't be a flip.
No need to point out my errors. In two weeks they will either become self evident, and I will once again post a mea culpa, or else maybe some will acknowledge my batting average is a little better than .000
@JBK said:
I recall hearing that someone who had a set of canceled obverse and reverse dies from the Olympics coins that were sold by the mint started striking "medals" with them and the feds stepped in and "convinced" them to stop.
The US Olympic Committee zealously protects its trademarks which include the 5 interwoven Olympic Rings symbol. When the Regency Mint used the cancelled dies in the early-2010s, USOC jumped down their throats using trademark violations as their club. Their lawyers are better paid than most anyone else's.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
And price them so high, they could have them forever, like the person who bought most of the 1909 VDB proof cents.
The brown X is sunk into the die so will be a raised X when used to strike aftermarket versions..
I wouldn't mind buying a restrike in copper or silver but would probably pass on one in gold.
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
Retail arbitrage.
I'm bidding with plans on reselling.
In that case, you are going to be disappointed. They are all going to go for full retail, and when you see the prices, you are not going to see an arbitrage opportunity lucrative enough to justify the risk involved in tying up the capital, which will not be insignificant.
Did you play back in 2022? I don't need to tell you that auctions like this are very different from buying direct from the Mint, when you just know the issue is going to be hot and they are giving us a flip if you are lucky enough to get in.
There is no "retail arbitrage" opportunity with hundreds of fungible lots and thousands, or tens of thousands, of bidders from around the world in a well publicized public auction. It's also very different from a typical auction where you have a chance to catch people sleeping and pick off a lot here and there.
With this, lots of people playing, and many of the lots are fungible. With pros competing for each and every lot, because it's the only way for them to get their hands on them. Just no retail arbitrage, unless you think you can compete with the Big Boys, with their access to capital and marketing muscle.
You're kidding, right?
You're telling all the dealers how to run their business? There's a reason why dealers are bidding in this auction and other auctions like it. At the right number, there is an arbitrage opportunity or do you think there will never be another sale made after the 12th of December.
You contradict yourself within your own post. The Big Boys are bidding to resell them, are they not?
Lmao. I really want to like you. However, you're becoming a caricature.
No, I'm not kidding. Let's see how it plays out. I'm not telling anyone how to run anything.
Dealers make their money buying from the Mint at a slight discount to retail, getting them graded at a huge discount, and then retailing to the public at a healthy margin. None of that is going to be happening here.
For the record, there has only ever been one other auction like this. And then, I don't remember seeing the lots being offered for resale en masse. Dealers who bought by and large resold privately. 700 lots were offered. I don't remember seeing any offered on anyone's website, or on eBay. To this day, I don't know if any of those lots held their value, other than maybe through the rise in precious metal prices since the summer of 2022.
There are only 230 total. No Big Boy is going to be getting more than a few, because if they actually outbid all retail bidders for all 230 of them, they will by definition be paying more than retail is willing to pay, and that will involve a huge risk, with big money involved, that they will have 230 buyers not involved in the auction willing to pay even more after the fact. This is not one specific coin, with a list of buyers to market it to, where they know they will have a taker.
Bottom line -- it's not a wholesale auction, so I just don't see a retail arbitrage opportunity for a small time dealer. Please prove me wrong.
Yes, Big Boys will be playing, as will Little Boys like you, and establishing a floor to make sure none of us gets a deal. But, no, there is not going to be any room for vest pocket dealers to have a retail arbitrage opportunity. Big Boys might buy to inventory for resale to people on lists they curate who overpay for things. Do you have such a list?
If not, who are you going to be flipping to at $20K+ who doesn't know about the auction? If you think you're going to be buying at $9K to flip at $10K, I think you are going to be very disappointed.
If it's anything like the last time, bidding will be spirited, and pricing will be full retail. Knowledgeable retail with means will be participating, as will people on SB's marketing list from around the world.
Large dealers will make sure no one gets any bargains, but they have access to capital you, as a small time reseller, don't have. As well as an ability to resell at higher prices than you do.
I'm not telling anyone how to do anything. I happen to think you are very sharp. I was wrong about the gold and silver, thinking demand would not be as strong as it was. Of course, I was working off bad Product Limit information.
No such issues for me on this one. Now, I think demand will be through the roof.
If I turn out to be wrong again, I'm sure you'll let me know. Which won't be necessary, since I will be there watching it in real time.
Otherwise, please just report back confirming that your bids were insufficient, and that there was no arbitrage opportunity for you at the hammer prices. That's my prediction, since you already know I think hammer prices are going to be far higher than you do.
I see no reason to point out your errors anymore.
Fair enough. But, with all due respect, I think it is you who is contradicting himself. You have been talking these down since they were announced, and yet now seem to believe there is going to be a flip for you.
Which is really just another way of saying you don't think SB, with all its marketing muscle and experience, can extract maximum value for its consignor, and that they are going to be leaving a little meat on the bone for flippers. Good luck with that.
If you are right and these turn out to be no big deal, you won't have a flip. And, if I am right and they go for moon money, you also won't have a flip.
Big Boys are likely going to be buying trophies on consignment for clients, and otherwise just keeping bidding honest for the rest of us while accumulating a little inventory to gouge a few clients on. My experience from the last time is that the lots will be going for full value, whatever that turns out to be, and there won't be a flip.
No need to point out my errors. In two weeks they will either become self evident, and I will once again post a mea culpa, or else maybe some will acknowledge my batting average is a little better than .000
I never "talked them down" other than to point out there is a huge difference between the Eagle collector base and the miscellaneous Mint product collector base. Saying that I expect them to sell for more like $10k and not $50k is hardly "talking then down".
As for a "flip", you really don't seem to understand the business as much as you claim The entire supply is selling on one day. Many of those coins will go into strong hands. That means anyone who wants one later will have a limited supply.
There is also the "retail arbitrage" aspect of this which is why there are numerous dealers bidding on these.
That doesn't mean I'm a buyer at any price, mind you. But I am a buyer at a certain (undisclosed) price.
@pocketpiececommems said:
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
Retail arbitrage.
I'm bidding with plans on reselling.
In that case, you are going to be disappointed. They are all going to go for full retail, and when you see the prices, you are not going to see an arbitrage opportunity lucrative enough to justify the risk involved in tying up the capital, which will not be insignificant.
Did you play back in 2022? I don't need to tell you that auctions like this are very different from buying direct from the Mint, when you just know the issue is going to be hot and they are giving us a flip if you are lucky enough to get in.
There is no "retail arbitrage" opportunity with hundreds of fungible lots and thousands, or tens of thousands, of bidders from around the world in a well publicized public auction. It's also very different from a typical auction where you have a chance to catch people sleeping and pick off a lot here and there.
With this, lots of people playing, and many of the lots are fungible. With pros competing for each and every lot, because it's the only way for them to get their hands on them. Just no retail arbitrage, unless you think you can compete with the Big Boys, with their access to capital and marketing muscle.
You're kidding, right?
You're telling all the dealers how to run their business? There's a reason why dealers are bidding in this auction and other auctions like it. At the right number, there is an arbitrage opportunity or do you think there will never be another sale made after the 12th of December.
You contradict yourself within your own post. The Big Boys are bidding to resell them, are they not?
Lmao. I really want to like you. However, you're becoming a caricature.
No, I'm not kidding. Let's see how it plays out. I'm not telling anyone how to run anything.
Dealers make their money buying from the Mint at a slight discount to retail, getting them graded at a huge discount, and then retailing to the public at a healthy margin. None of that is going to be happening here.
For the record, there has only ever been one other auction like this. And then, I don't remember seeing the lots being offered for resale en masse. Dealers who bought by and large resold privately. 700 lots were offered. I don't remember seeing any offered on anyone's website, or on eBay. To this day, I don't know if any of those lots held their value, other than maybe through the rise in precious metal prices since the summer of 2022.
There are only 230 total. No Big Boy is going to be getting more than a few, because if they actually outbid all retail bidders for all 230 of them, they will by definition be paying more than retail is willing to pay, and that will involve a huge risk, with big money involved, that they will have 230 buyers not involved in the auction willing to pay even more after the fact. This is not one specific coin, with a list of buyers to market it to, where they know they will have a taker.
Bottom line -- it's not a wholesale auction, so I just don't see a retail arbitrage opportunity for a small time dealer. Please prove me wrong.
Yes, Big Boys will be playing, as will Little Boys like you, and establishing a floor to make sure none of us gets a deal. But, no, there is not going to be any room for vest pocket dealers to have a retail arbitrage opportunity. Big Boys might buy to inventory for resale to people on lists they curate who overpay for things. Do you have such a list?
If not, who are you going to be flipping to at $20K+ who doesn't know about the auction? If you think you're going to be buying at $9K to flip at $10K, I think you are going to be very disappointed.
If it's anything like the last time, bidding will be spirited, and pricing will be full retail. Knowledgeable retail with means will be participating, as will people on SB's marketing list from around the world.
Large dealers will make sure no one gets any bargains, but they have access to capital you, as a small time reseller, don't have. As well as an ability to resell at higher prices than you do.
I'm not telling anyone how to do anything. I happen to think you are very sharp. I was wrong about the gold and silver, thinking demand would not be as strong as it was. Of course, I was working off bad Product Limit information.
No such issues for me on this one. Now, I think demand will be through the roof.
If I turn out to be wrong again, I'm sure you'll let me know. Which won't be necessary, since I will be there watching it in real time.
Otherwise, please just report back confirming that your bids were insufficient, and that there was no arbitrage opportunity for you at the hammer prices. That's my prediction, since you already know I think hammer prices are going to be far higher than you do.
I see no reason to point out your errors anymore.
Fair enough. But, with all due respect, I think it is you who is contradicting himself. You have been talking these down since they were announced, and yet now seem to believe there is going to be a flip for you.
Which is really just another way of saying you don't think SB, with all its marketing muscle and experience, can extract maximum value for its consignor, and that they are going to be leaving a little meat on the bone for flippers. Good luck with that.
If you are right and these turn out to be no big deal, you won't have a flip. And, if I am right and they go for moon money, you also won't have a flip.
Big Boys are likely going to be buying trophies on consignment for clients, and otherwise just keeping bidding honest for the rest of us while accumulating a little inventory to gouge a few clients on. My experience from the last time is that the lots will be going for full value, whatever that turns out to be, and there won't be a flip.
No need to point out my errors. In two weeks they will either become self evident, and I will once again post a mea culpa, or else maybe some will acknowledge my batting average is a little better than .000
I never "talked them down" other than to point out there is a huge difference between the Eagle collector base and the miscellaneous Mint product collector base. Saying that I expect them to sell for more like $10k and not $50k is hardly "talking then down".
As for a "flip", you really don't seem to understand the business as much as you claim The entire supply is selling on one day. Many of those coins will go into strong hands. That means anyone who wants one later will have a limited supply.
There is also the "retail arbitrage" aspect of this which is why there are numerous dealers bidding on these.
That doesn't mean I'm a buyer at any price, mind you. But I am a buyer at a certain (undisclosed) price.
I do think I get it. I fully get they will be going into strong hands. I just don't think limited supply means the market will explode on the secondary market.
People interested will get them on the primary market. Others won't be getting them at all, because they just won't be available.
Large dealers may indeed buy a few for inventory to see what happens, but I really think they have a list of people to market to now. I think they'll be able and willing to pay more than will make sense for you.
We'll see, but "numerous dealers bidding" means something different than it usually does, because they have absolutely no advantage over collectors like they usually do. That means the majority will be going to collectors at the outset.
Keep in mind, we are talking about 230. Not 2300, 23,000, or 230,000. The auction isn't a secret. People with means and desire are going to know where to find it, at the lowest price possible. They are not going to need dealers to source them, with the bulk buyer discount and bulk grading discount, in order to get a guaranteed 70 at the best possible price.
We really are arguing about next to nothing here. You think they will be strong in the secondary market due to limited supply, but that the primary market is going to primarily be a wholesale market in which you can play on equal terms with the Big Boys to engage in what you call a "retail arbitrage."
I think the primary market is going to be the strong retail market, notwithstanding the fact that dealers will be bidding. Based on where I think bidding is going to go, I seriously doubt dealers are going to be taking down the majority of the sale.
Because the Mint did not design this to leave enough margin for dealers for this to make business sense for them as a wholesale opportunity. If anything, it's going to be an auction representation opportunity for well heeled clients who use dealers to bid for them at auction.
Once you see when the lots close, I think you'll think the risk/reward isn't going to be there for you.
I think the primary market is going to be the strong retail market, notwithstanding the fact that dealers will be bidding. Based on where I think bidding is going to go, I seriously doubt dealers are going to be taking down the majority of the sale.
This is my opinion too, whatever the final price. I assume some collectors will buy from dealers right after the auction, but I would just bid to my limit and pass if I didn't win it.
There is no point in paying more to a dealer after the end of the auction for this type of coin. It's throwing money away. I know it happens for other coins, but my inference is that's usually because the buyer has lower confidence in the quality and liquidity of what they are buying. Doesn't seem either apply here, but maybe there is another reason I'm missing.
I think the primary market is going to be the strong retail market, notwithstanding the fact that dealers will be bidding. Based on where I think bidding is going to go, I seriously doubt dealers are going to be taking down the majority of the sale.
This is my opinion too, whatever the final price. I assume some collectors will buy from dealers right after the auction, but I would just bid to my limit and pass if I didn't win it.
There is no point in paying more to a dealer after the end of the auction for this type of coin. It's throwing money away. I know it happens for other coins, but my inference is that's usually because the buyer has lower confidence in the quality and liquidity of what they are buying. Doesn't seem either apply here, but maybe there is another reason I'm missing.
Agree 1,000,000%. The other reason is that other coins don't appear that often, and are relatively unique.
This time, it's 230 new issues, indistinguishable from each other, aside from grade and coin #. The sale is going to be very well publicized.
Some wealthy individuals allow their dealers to handle acquisitions for them, so dealers will bid on their behalf, adding a commission to the hammer price. Dealers also might buy a few on spec, counting on their ability to sell them after the fact at a profit to their client lists.
But, given how dealers will be paying the same as the public, have no bulk grading discounts, no special bulk slab labels, etc.. and given how expensive these are going to be, you are not going to see dealers buying ~200 of them on spec, and then needing to go on eBay or apmex.com if you to acquire one. The public will be actively participating, and outbidding dealers for many of the lots, since they don't have to worry about marking them up and trying to move them after the auction.
As I said before, dealers will set a floor because there is a price they know they can make money on them, as @jmlanzaf plans to do. But members of the public who want one will go one increment higher, and that's where many of the lots will hammer.
And, as I have been saying, that number is going to be a lot higher than many here think/hope it will be. I really, honestly hope I am wrong, because I'd love to have one, but am convinced I am going to be priced out.
Lot of hype. Lot of marketing. Only 230, with signed numbered COAs and numbered slabs to match. $2700 in intrinsic value. $10K is a fantasy for the least expensive among them. People looking at bidding two weeks out and getting excited are just playing themselves.
This is unique, like the Duck and Dawn auction was. You didn't see those coins appearing on eBay at a premium to hammer after that sale either.
It's a Mint very limited edition new product dump where the market price is going to be discovered real time at the SB auction. Not after the fact on eBay or on Pinehurst's website, after website lottery winners do their thing and flip them. There will not be enough inventory, or enough interest at the prices they will hammer at, to create a secondary market. They will appear in the future, like anything else, one at a time in auctions at places like GC. Not eBay, and not APMEX.
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
Hi Mark - - The way I think about it is as follows - Buy all 230 FH Gold dollars for an average price of $15k each for a total of $3.5M. Melt/Destroy 229 of them and at 1 Oz each at $2600 then you got about $600k of gold so the net cost for the one and only FH gold dollar with the 230 is $2.9M. Auction it off and have it sell for $4M netting you a profit of $1.9M. Not bad? If it sells for more than your a bigger winner. If you really want more, then maybe tape the coin to a picture and have Sotheby's sell it for $7M. If a banana taped to a picture sells for over $5M, then the only FH gold dollar should sell for at least $7Mthan $4M. This whole 230 FH dollar thing is just crazy to me.........
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
Hi Mark - - The way I think about it is as follows - Buy all 230 FH Gold dollars for an average price of $15k each for a total of $3.5M. Melt/Destroy 229 of them and at 1 Oz each at $2600 then you got about $600k of gold so the net cost for the one and only FH gold dollar with the 230 is $2.9M. Auction it off and have it sell for $4M netting you a profit of $1.9M. Not bad? If it sells for more than your a bigger winner. If you really want more, then maybe tape the coin to a picture and have Sotheby's sell it for $7M. If a banana taped to a picture sells for over $5M, then the only FH gold dollar should sell for at least $7Mthan $4M. This whole 230 FH dollar thing is just crazy to me.........
I think you’re overly optimistic regarding the price that could be obtained for the (unique) coin. But I could certainly be wrong.
Best of luck in your endeavor. Please report back to the forum after you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
Hi Mark - - The way I think about it is as follows - Buy all 230 FH Gold dollars for an average price of $15k each for a total of $3.5M. Melt/Destroy 229 of them and at 1 Oz each at $2600 then you got about $600k of gold so the net cost for the one and only FH gold dollar with the 230 is $2.9M. Auction it off and have it sell for $4M netting you a profit of $1.9M. Not bad? If it sells for more than your a bigger winner. If you really want more, then maybe tape the coin to a picture and have Sotheby's sell it for $7M. If a banana taped to a picture sells for over $5M, then the only FH gold dollar should sell for at least $7Mthan $4M. This whole 230 FH dollar thing is just crazy to me.........
I think you’re overly optimistic regarding the price that could be obtained for the (unique) coin. But I could certainly be wrong.
Best of luck in your endeavor. Please report back to the forum after you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
This is the same forum that questioned the value of the 1976 no S Ike and now they are going to spend $5 million for this survivor coin.
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
Hi Mark - - The way I think about it is as follows - Buy all 230 FH Gold dollars for an average price of $15k each for a total of $3.5M. Melt/Destroy 229 of them and at 1 Oz each at $2600 then you got about $600k of gold so the net cost for the one and only FH gold dollar with the 230 is $2.9M. Auction it off and have it sell for $4M netting you a profit of $1.9M. Not bad? If it sells for more than your a bigger winner. If you really want more, then maybe tape the coin to a picture and have Sotheby's sell it for $7M. If a banana taped to a picture sells for over $5M, then the only FH gold dollar should sell for at least $7Mthan $4M. This whole 230 FH dollar thing is just crazy to me.........
I think you’re overly optimistic regarding the price that could be obtained for the (unique) coin. But I could certainly be wrong.
Best of luck in your endeavor. Please report back to the forum after you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
This is the same forum that questioned the value of the 1976 no S Ike and now they are going to spend $5 million for this survivor coin.
I think it was a dime.😉
I corrected the date already, but you were too quick for me.
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
Hi Mark - - The way I think about it is as follows - Buy all 230 FH Gold dollars for an average price of $15k each for a total of $3.5M. Melt/Destroy 229 of them and at 1 Oz each at $2600 then you got about $600k of gold so the net cost for the one and only FH gold dollar with the 230 is $2.9M. Auction it off and have it sell for $4M netting you a profit of $1.9M. Not bad? If it sells for more than your a bigger winner. If you really want more, then maybe tape the coin to a picture and have Sotheby's sell it for $7M. If a banana taped to a picture sells for over $5M, then the only FH gold dollar should sell for at least $7Mthan $4M. This whole 230 FH dollar thing is just crazy to me.........
I think you’re overly optimistic regarding the price that could be obtained for the (unique) coin. But I could certainly be wrong.
Best of luck in your endeavor. Please report back to the forum after you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
Also overly optimistic about being able to get the coins for $15K each. Add another $10K to that, and what does that do to the math? $15K? Etc.? Not to mention the first coin is already at least $200K more than $15K.
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
Also overly optimistic about being able to get the coins for $15K each. Add another $10K to that, and what does that do to the math? $15K? Etc.? Not to mention the first coin is already at least $200K more than $15K.
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
Also overly optimistic about being able to get the coins for $15K each. Add another $10K to that, and what does that do to the math? $15K? Etc.? Not to mention the first coin is already at least $200K more than $15K.
It's at $170k currently
Understood. I thought we all realized that's not where it will be hammering.
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
Also overly optimistic about being able to get the coins for $15K each. Add another $10K to that, and what does that do to the math? $15K? Etc.? Not to mention the first coin is already at least $200K more than $15K.
It's at $170k currently
Understood. I thought we all realized that's not where it will be hammering.
Do you read your own words? You said "the first coin is ALREADY at least $200k more than $15k." [Emphasis added.]
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
Also overly optimistic about being able to get the coins for $15K each. Add another $10K to that, and what does that do to the math? $15K? Etc.? Not to mention the first coin is already at least $200K more than $15K.
It's at $170k currently
Understood. I thought we all realized that's not where it will be hammering.
Do you read your own words? You said "the first coin is ALREADY at least $200k more than $15k." [Emphasis added.]
Yes. Sorry for the misstatement. $155K and counting. Better?
@EastonCollection said:
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
Also overly optimistic about being able to get the coins for $15K each. Add another $10K to that, and what does that do to the math? $15K? Etc.? Not to mention the first coin is already at least $200K more than $15K.
It's at $170k currently
Understood. I thought we all realized that's not where it will be hammering.
Do you read your own words? You said "the first coin is ALREADY at least $200k more than $15k." [Emphasis added.]
Yes. Sorry for the misstatement. $155K and counting. Better?
Comments
OK, got it. "X" -citing.
Does owning the die actually give you the legal right to use the die?
I recall hearing that someone who had a set of canceled obverse and reverse dies from the Olympics coins that were sold by the mint started striking "medals" with them and the feds stepped in and "convinced" them to stop.
That rings a bell. I think that's also why subsequent die sales completely obliterated the surface of the die.
All I see this accomplishing is ensuring that the everyman collector will probably never have a chance to own one of the "special" coins. If the privy coins had been randomly salted in amongst the total mintage, he may have been able to scrape together enough to buy one of the coins & have a chance at a windfall. They have made sure it can't happen.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
I understand your position.
Now, consider it from the Mint's perspective. They have already provided the "everyman collector" (and the ABPP dealers) a "chance at a windfall" with the silver medals. This time around they are going to keep the "windfall" for themselves via the auction.
Most likely there will be private restrikes.
In my humble opinion, having dealt with uncancelled dies, cancelled dies, dies certified by NGC, and striking restrikes, these 2 dies are at least worth half of the price realized.
Currently the bid on this lot (the first struck and the 2 dies) is $170k plus buyer premium. My estimate for this is a minimum of $250k + BP.
No BP, or state sales tax on this auction. Just hammer + shipping.
Reference: https://stacksbowers.com/sbpressreleases/the-united-states-mint-selects-stacks-bowers-galleries-to-sell-privy-mark-230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-high-relief-gold-coins/
I stand corrected, thanks!
Wow that's a glass half empty look at the Flowing Hair reissue. Buy the gold coin, why do you need a privy? Buy the Silver.
Would it not make sense for the owner of the SP66 '94 to buy the first Flowing Hair gold coin? Keep 'em together I say.
Not a glass half empty look at all from my perspective, just simple truth. (disclaimer: I personally have no interest whatever in acquiring any of the FH issues). The everyman collector has been frozen out from any chance at the "special" gold coin. Yes, he can buy the silver. Why would he need a gold privy? Let him eat cake.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Exactly. These are not meant for the every man collector, and are designed to provide a windfall for the Mint. Not for every men, or even dealers. It is what it is.
Remember, at the end of the day, it's just 1 oz of gold.
The rest is numismatic value, which may, or may not, go up in value.
Chris
Does the Mint have a goal to provide windfall profits?
"Goal"? No.
Its mission is to provide circulating coinage to facilitate commerce. The numismatic program is nothing more than a side gig that is required to be self-sustaining, i.e., not require taxpayer subsidies. Producing coins for collectors is also not a "goal."
Windfalls are nice when they present themselves, but are not a goal. Similarly, providing windfalls to others is also not a goal.
The fact that there is a market for this, and they have woken up to that fact after 232 years of existence, is a good thing. It allows them to generate windfalls for the US Treasury at no cost to taxpayers, or to any collectors who are priced out of this end of the market.
Amazing on the highest bid price so far on coin #1 of the 230.
And even this high bid might not be enough to win it.
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
Just my opinion:
The U. S. Mint will have StacksBowers auction cancelled dies from previous issues of U.S. classic vintage coins struck in gold. And upcoming issues as well.
1st: I'd like to say that I've been here for over 20 years and on Ebay for more than 25 years. I collect and/or have collected many things including coins/stamps/glass/cars/sportscards, etc. When I post it's usually very infrequently. I only brought this up because I JUST discovered out this fact about Stacks selling EVERY gold privy coin that the US Mint made for this issue. I don't recall seeing this information posted anywhere/anytime in the past, but I don't read everything about every subject.
2nd: I've been purchasing coins including the gold coins, proof sets and the CC Morgans from the US Mint since the 1970's. It's only the past years that the mint has had "lottery" type items where you can buy items and get the instant profits. We as coin "collectors/flippers/dealers" do have advance notice of when these issues are going to be released and know which items will be the good buys instead of the goodbyes to your instant profits. I've bought a great many of items that I wanted for my collection and still have to this day. Many/most of these items I can buy from dealers today for less than what I originally paid.
3rd: On the other hand, YES, there have been a few times that I have won the "lottery" on a few coins/sets. Such as the silver privy medals. No, I didn't get any privy coins, but I did get a couple, searched them and when I didn't find the "golden goose" I resold them for a $75 profit each, so that helped my cost average on mint purchases.
4th: I have been purchasing coins from all the major auction houses including Stacks, and didn't know about them selling ALL these golden privy coins. I have purchased some very low population coins in my series for far less than half of "book price". If I could, I would have paid well over book for these coins, which I have in the past, but on some of these sites there appears to be little interest in my series so that helps me. Although I'm on this site every month, it's only been recently that I discovered on their site that they had them ALL for sale. That's when I posted here to let others know.
5th: Knowledge is power. We should all be here to SHARE our knowledge here and NOT beat each other up or down. I know we can't all get along but putting our differences aside and trying to answer questions, post information on new issues or concerns, this would allow more individuals to feel more accepted here and feel free to try and obtain more knowledge about this great hobby. Where else can you literally start a new hobby for a single penny. That person might someday be the next owner of an 1804 silver dollar. Someone will be. Afterall, we ALL started somewhere, right? I really restarted collecting coins very seriously after my Dad gave me his Lincoln set to complete since I started using the internet to fill in holes for my other sets. So far I have complete raw sets of Lincolns in MS and proof from 1939-date, Roosies in MS, Franklins in MS and proofs, Kennedys in MS and proof Isenhour dollars in MS and proof, State quarters in MS. A great majority came from circulation, except the Lincolns which came from my Dad, the 09-S VDB came from a fellow board member in XF-45 with great toning! Thanks Moondoggie! Most of my proof coins came from dealers/ trades, and online auctions like Ebay. Made a LOT of FRIENDS while completing these sets. Thanks to ALL for your help and sorry to be so long winded. If it's too long, just pass my other long posts. Thanks for reading!
So technically someone with deep pockets could bid on and win all 230 and have the market cornered
Lafayette Grading Set
Yup. It's called free markets and capitalism.
In which case, for the rest of us, it would be as though the privy coins never existed at all. Just like every other coin the Mint ever released without a privy.
We all survived, and many of us went on to have happy and productive lives, as well as build coin collections we are proud of. None of us has to own one example of everything ever created.
It's not food, fuel, water or shelter. Cornering the market on 230 coins will have absolutely no negative impact on the rest of us.
Only between 1 and 230 people will ever own one of these at any given point in time. I'm very unlikely to ever be one of them, and, as a result, it doesn't matter to me whether one person buys them all or whether they are "widely" distributed among 230 individuals.
As an American taxpayer, I am thrilled that the Mint figured out a way to raise a relatively large amount of money for the US Treasury with relatively little effort. I just wish they'd be more transparent in general with respect to what they are doing.
Same argument can be made for any other coin, so why not extend the claim to all others?
Someone with deep pockets can afford to buy every single example of any coin. At current market prices, numerous billionaires can afford to buy every single coin in the NGC and PCGS populations and all the good coins not in it, leaving everyone else to collect "widgets" and "dreck".
It's not going to happen. because coins aren't competitive "investments" and owning large numbers of duplicates (230 here) isn't interesting as a collectible.
Correct. I was not arguing that it would happen. Only answering the question regarding whether it could happen.
And, it could. This is a public auction with no household purchase limit. If someone, for whatever reason, wanted to grab them all and had the resources to do it, nothing would stop them.
Someone a few posts back posted a rumor about a large dealer planning to buy lots of lots. I responded that would be a terrible idea, because each and every lot will be selling for full retail, making buying multiples with a view towards reselling after the hype has faded a very risky proposition.
Retail arbitrage.
I'm bidding with plans on reselling.
In that case, you are going to be disappointed. They are all going to go for full retail, and when you see the prices, you are not going to see an arbitrage opportunity lucrative enough to justify the risk involved in tying up the capital, which will not be insignificant.
Did you play back in 2022? I don't need to tell you that auctions like this are very different from buying direct from the Mint, when you just know the issue is going to be hot and they are giving us a flip if you are lucky enough to get in.
There is no "retail arbitrage" opportunity with hundreds of fungible lots and thousands, or tens of thousands, of bidders from around the world in a well publicized public auction. It's also very different from a typical auction where you have a chance to catch people sleeping and pick off a lot here and there.
With this, lots of people are going to be playing, and many of the lots are fungible. With pros competing for each and every lot, because it's the only way for them to get their hands on them. Just no retail arbitrage, unless you think you can compete with the Big Boys, with their access to capital and marketing muscle.
This is, at the end of the day, a very expensive niche product. I can't imagine who is going to be buying from you on eBay after the fact, at a premium to what they go for at the auction. I think the TV guys might buy some to market to their private client lists, but I also cannot imagine the price point, or amount they would have available for sale, would lend itself to marketing on HSN.
Good luck, but I just don't see the opportunity. Folks with the means and interest will, for the most part, be competing with you on the 12th.
You're kidding, right?
You're telling all the dealers how to run their business? There's a reason why dealers are bidding in this auction and other auctions like it. At the right number, there is an arbitrage opportunity or do you think there will never be another sale made after the 12th of December.
You contradict yourself within your own post. The Big Boys are bidding to resell them, are they not?
I buy at auction and resell all the time. Thank you for thinking that you know more about the coin business than all the dealers.
Lmao. I really want to like you. However, you're becoming a caricature.
It's a real privylege to sell these items...
No, I'm not kidding. Let's see how it plays out. I'm not telling anyone how to run anything.
Dealers make their money buying from the Mint at a slight discount to retail, getting them graded at a huge discount, and then retailing to the public at a healthy margin. None of that is going to be happening here.
For the record, there has only ever been one other auction like this. And then, I don't remember seeing the lots being offered for resale en masse. Dealers who bought by and large resold privately. 700 lots were offered. I don't remember seeing any offered on anyone's website, or on eBay. To this day, I don't know if any of those lots held their value, other than maybe through the rise in precious metal prices since the summer of 2022.
There are only 230 total. No Big Boy is going to be getting more than a few, because if they actually outbid all retail bidders for all 230 of them, they will by definition be paying more than retail is willing to pay, and that will involve a huge risk, with big money involved, that they will have 230 buyers not involved in the auction willing to pay even more after the fact. This is not one specific coin, with a list of buyers to market it to, where they know they will have a taker.
Bottom line -- it's not a wholesale auction, so I just don't see a retail arbitrage opportunity for a small time dealer. Please prove me wrong.
Yes, Big Boys will be playing, as will Little Boys like you, and establishing a floor to make sure none of us gets a deal. But, no, there is not going to be any room for vest pocket dealers to have a retail arbitrage opportunity. Big Boys might buy to inventory for resale to people on lists they curate who overpay for things. Do you have such a list?
If not, who are you going to be flipping to at $20K+ who doesn't know about the auction? If you think you're going to be buying at $9K to flip at $10K, I think you are going to be very disappointed.
If it's anything like the last time, bidding will be spirited, and pricing will be full retail. Knowledgeable retail with means will be participating, as will people on SB's marketing list from around the world.
Large dealers will make sure no one gets any bargains, but they have access to capital you, as a small time reseller, don't have. As well as an ability to resell at higher prices than you do.
I'm not telling anyone how to do anything. I happen to think you are very sharp. I was wrong about the gold and silver, thinking demand would not be as strong as it was. Of course, I was working off bad Product Limit information.
No such issues for me on this one. Now, I think demand will be through the roof.
If I turn out to be wrong again, I'm sure you'll let me know. Which won't be necessary, since I will be there watching it in real time.
Otherwise, please just report back confirming that your bids were insufficient, and that there was no arbitrage opportunity for you at the hammer prices. That's my prediction, since you already know I think hammer prices are going to be far higher than you do.
I see no reason to point out your errors anymore.
70s
Fair enough. But, with all due respect, I think it is you who is contradicting himself. You have been talking these down since they were announced, and yet now seem to believe there is going to be a flip for you.
Which is really just another way of saying you don't think SB, with all its marketing muscle and experience, can extract maximum value for its consignor, and that they are going to be leaving a little meat on the bone for flippers. Good luck with that.
If you are right and these turn out to be no big deal, you won't have a flip. And, if I am right and they go for moon money, you also won't have a flip.
Big Boys are likely going to be buying trophies on consignment for clients, and otherwise just keeping bidding honest for the rest of us while accumulating a little inventory to gouge a few clients on. My experience from the last time is that the lots will be going for full value, whatever that turns out to be, and there won't be a flip.
No need to point out my errors. In two weeks they will either become self evident, and I will once again post a mea culpa, or else maybe some will acknowledge my batting average is a little better than .000
The US Olympic Committee zealously protects its trademarks which include the 5 interwoven Olympic Rings symbol. When the Regency Mint used the cancelled dies in the early-2010s, USOC jumped down their throats using trademark violations as their club. Their lawyers are better paid than most anyone else's.
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/usoc-private-minter-reach-settlement-on-medal.html
And price them so high, they could have them forever, like the person who bought most of the 1909 VDB proof cents.
The brown X is sunk into the die so will be a raised X when used to strike aftermarket versions..
I wouldn't mind buying a restrike in copper or silver but would probably pass on one in gold.
how about buying all 230 coins at auction, then destroy 229 of them and then you can own an unique piece and price the coin like if the mint auctioned off the 1849 $20. Win - Win - I would like to know if anyone has the guts to try it?
I don’t think the value of that unique coin would equal the cost of the 230 coins. And the comparison of it to an 1849 $20 strikes me as faulty. But my guess is that we’ll never know for certain which of us is right.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I never "talked them down" other than to point out there is a huge difference between the Eagle collector base and the miscellaneous Mint product collector base. Saying that I expect them to sell for more like $10k and not $50k is hardly "talking then down".
As for a "flip", you really don't seem to understand the business as much as you claim The entire supply is selling on one day. Many of those coins will go into strong hands. That means anyone who wants one later will have a limited supply.
There is also the "retail arbitrage" aspect of this which is why there are numerous dealers bidding on these.
That doesn't mean I'm a buyer at any price, mind you. But I am a buyer at a certain (undisclosed) price.
I do think I get it. I fully get they will be going into strong hands. I just don't think limited supply means the market will explode on the secondary market.
People interested will get them on the primary market. Others won't be getting them at all, because they just won't be available.
Large dealers may indeed buy a few for inventory to see what happens, but I really think they have a list of people to market to now. I think they'll be able and willing to pay more than will make sense for you.
We'll see, but "numerous dealers bidding" means something different than it usually does, because they have absolutely no advantage over collectors like they usually do. That means the majority will be going to collectors at the outset.
Keep in mind, we are talking about 230. Not 2300, 23,000, or 230,000. The auction isn't a secret. People with means and desire are going to know where to find it, at the lowest price possible. They are not going to need dealers to source them, with the bulk buyer discount and bulk grading discount, in order to get a guaranteed 70 at the best possible price.
We really are arguing about next to nothing here. You think they will be strong in the secondary market due to limited supply, but that the primary market is going to primarily be a wholesale market in which you can play on equal terms with the Big Boys to engage in what you call a "retail arbitrage."
I think the primary market is going to be the strong retail market, notwithstanding the fact that dealers will be bidding. Based on where I think bidding is going to go, I seriously doubt dealers are going to be taking down the majority of the sale.
Because the Mint did not design this to leave enough margin for dealers for this to make business sense for them as a wholesale opportunity. If anything, it's going to be an auction representation opportunity for well heeled clients who use dealers to bid for them at auction.
Once you see when the lots close, I think you'll think the risk/reward isn't going to be there for you.
This is my opinion too, whatever the final price. I assume some collectors will buy from dealers right after the auction, but I would just bid to my limit and pass if I didn't win it.
There is no point in paying more to a dealer after the end of the auction for this type of coin. It's throwing money away. I know it happens for other coins, but my inference is that's usually because the buyer has lower confidence in the quality and liquidity of what they are buying. Doesn't seem either apply here, but maybe there is another reason I'm missing.
Agree 1,000,000%. The other reason is that other coins don't appear that often, and are relatively unique.
This time, it's 230 new issues, indistinguishable from each other, aside from grade and coin #. The sale is going to be very well publicized.
Some wealthy individuals allow their dealers to handle acquisitions for them, so dealers will bid on their behalf, adding a commission to the hammer price. Dealers also might buy a few on spec, counting on their ability to sell them after the fact at a profit to their client lists.
But, given how dealers will be paying the same as the public, have no bulk grading discounts, no special bulk slab labels, etc.. and given how expensive these are going to be, you are not going to see dealers buying ~200 of them on spec, and then needing to go on eBay or apmex.com if you to acquire one. The public will be actively participating, and outbidding dealers for many of the lots, since they don't have to worry about marking them up and trying to move them after the auction.
As I said before, dealers will set a floor because there is a price they know they can make money on them, as @jmlanzaf plans to do. But members of the public who want one will go one increment higher, and that's where many of the lots will hammer.
And, as I have been saying, that number is going to be a lot higher than many here think/hope it will be. I really, honestly hope I am wrong, because I'd love to have one, but am convinced I am going to be priced out.
Lot of hype. Lot of marketing. Only 230, with signed numbered COAs and numbered slabs to match. $2700 in intrinsic value. $10K is a fantasy for the least expensive among them. People looking at bidding two weeks out and getting excited are just playing themselves.
This is unique, like the Duck and Dawn auction was. You didn't see those coins appearing on eBay at a premium to hammer after that sale either.
It's a Mint very limited edition new product dump where the market price is going to be discovered real time at the SB auction. Not after the fact on eBay or on Pinehurst's website, after website lottery winners do their thing and flip them. There will not be enough inventory, or enough interest at the prices they will hammer at, to create a secondary market. They will appear in the future, like anything else, one at a time in auctions at places like GC. Not eBay, and not APMEX.
Hi Mark - - The way I think about it is as follows - Buy all 230 FH Gold dollars for an average price of $15k each for a total of $3.5M. Melt/Destroy 229 of them and at 1 Oz each at $2600 then you got about $600k of gold so the net cost for the one and only FH gold dollar with the 230 is $2.9M. Auction it off and have it sell for $4M netting you a profit of $1.9M. Not bad? If it sells for more than your a bigger winner. If you really want more, then maybe tape the coin to a picture and have Sotheby's sell it for $7M. If a banana taped to a picture sells for over $5M, then the only FH gold dollar should sell for at least $7Mthan $4M. This whole 230 FH dollar thing is just crazy to me.........
I think you’re overly optimistic regarding the price that could be obtained for the (unique) coin. But I could certainly be wrong.
Best of luck in your endeavor. Please report back to the forum after you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
This is the same forum that questioned the value of the 1976 no S Ike and now they are going to spend $5 million for this survivor coin.
Deleted, due to edited post to which I had replied.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I corrected the date already, but you were too quick for me.
Also overly optimistic about being able to get the coins for $15K each. Add another $10K to that, and what does that do to the math? $15K? Etc.? Not to mention the first coin is already at least $200K more than $15K.
you’ve bought all of the coins, melted all but one and sold the remaining example. 😉
It's at $170k currently
Understood. I thought we all realized that's not where it will be hammering.
Do you read your own words? You said "the first coin is ALREADY at least $200k more than $15k." [Emphasis added.]
Yes. Sorry for the misstatement. $155K and counting. Better?
I just can't anymore...