Gem Common Date Morgan Dollar Price Shocker
Moparmonster
Posts: 247 ✭✭✭✭
I wanted to share a very recent experience and hopefully get some good conversation started here on the board.
1.) Yesterday (9/28) I was working a show with @DRUNNER and we were having a discussion with a friend who was looking at dipping his toes into the dealer pool. He was contemplating a common gem Morgan to resell. Out comes the newest issue (October) of the Greysheet. It was quickly ascertained that the bid price was $155. Having my phone handy, I opened up the GS app version as they were opening the magazine.
“Wait a minute!” I said, the price is not $155, it’s showing $135 now! @DRUNNER and I were flabbergasted to say the least. Here we are not even in October yet and the most current up date price quote has changed almost 15% in the negative direction on a highly traded coin. What are your thoughts?
2.) On another note, common date gem Morgans are one of the bel weathers of the market. @DRUNNER mentioned this and also said that he hasn’t even seen gem Morgans this cheap since he’s started really tracking the market. A lot of other areas of the market seem to be rocking! Metals are near records, high end, quality, CAC, old holders, rarity, all are looking strong. With regards to our show in Salt Lake, @DRUNNER sold well and sold at retail. I sold well to other dealers as I was working the floor. Dealers were paying strong for what I sold.
What are your thoughts on this? What’s causing the sudden 2 week dramatic price drop?
Comments
If I had to guess, I'd think there. are a few less collectors for these GEM dollars than there are GEM dollars. The pricesheets are now catching up with this notion.
Less collector interest than there are the number of available coins would (eventually) equate to a lower listed value/price.
peacockcoins
There’s been a softening in prices, but it hasn’t been dramatic or sudden
The price drop shown in the CDN isn’t as sudden or dramatic as you seem to think it is. Quite a few common date MS65 Morgan dollars have traded below $155 (and even below $140) for several weeks now. And it’s not like most of them were trading at $155 two weeks ago and most of them are trading at $135 now. Different coins trade at different prices, regardless of price guide values.
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Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I presume that by "gem", this is MS-65 or better.
It's been my inference for years that much and maybe most of the supply isn't owned only for recreational collecting purposes. The supply of the more and most common dates is large to huge, and it would require an unlikely high percentage of the collector base to own the same coins, even for a series with the collector preference of the Morgan dollar.
As for the price change between print and online, coins are still relatively illiquid vs. tradeable markets like stocks and commodities. If there is real time pricing now, might not be so surprising.
Many of these ultra common coins don’t have collector homes so the pricing is mostly driven by dealers.
Maybe the 'A & B' Gems have found their collector homes, at least for the short term, and the 'C' class stuff is primarily being traded around. As Mark mentioned above, different coins for different prices.
I don't see common gem Morgans for either $155 or $135 anywhere. I'd buy a few at $135.
If you care to check, you can find some MS65 PCGS and NGC examples under completed listings on eBay, among other places.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Near the end of 2019 and through the first two months of 2020, I was seeing generic MS 65 Morgans below $100 in the general market. The lowest I saw was an ugly example fail to clear $70 (with the fee) at GC. Even nicer OGH examples were selling for $105-$115. Then the 2020 upswing took these coins and pushed prices up. I believe we peaked in the $185 region in the 2021-2022 timeframe. Unfortunately these coins are super common and there is a big supply. More continue to be graded as well. So I did not think those levels would hold up for too long once some of the "easy" money had left the market. It has actually taken longer than I expected to see this downward correction.
Why do you consider it unfortunate that the coins are so common and that there’s a big supply? I think that’s mostly a very good thing for collectors.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I see two major dealers (wholesale) that still have active buy bids at $150 per on MS 65 generic morgans. Sell side is $160. So, the sky isn't falling, but some folks will try and push prices down if they can get an attractive buy price.
Got 20 ms 65 morgans to sell? I'll buy them all day at $135 to make $15 bucks in a quick flip. So, I think this lower price might be folks looking for that flip, rather than anything else.
surf
It's not unfortunate to me. I meant to say, "unfortunately for those who would like to see prices remain high or increase, it's not looking good at this time based on the large supply and seemingly faltering demand."
Thank you.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Not all MS-65 graded Morgan Dollars are created equal. There are "A", "B" and "C" coins. "C" are going to bring less money in many cases.
Morgan Dollars are very common coins, even in MS-65. There are rolls of 1881-S dollars that are absolutley beautiful. The prices have gone up and down on them for years. When the market is hot, and there are a lot of less than savvy players, the prices can be high. When those guys leave the market the prices fall.
Great thoughts. I’m aware of the market softening for a while now on average coins, negative eye appeal, common stuff, run of the mill collector coins. This type of stuff had been a hard sell for me when I started out which is one of the reasons I moved into mostly CAC, key dates, and rare non gold coins.
With regards to some of you guys being so willing to buy 65’s at full bid, it makes me think this is kind of the floor (at least for the time being.)
On another aspect, it just seems kind of strange to me that CDN would just release and mail out their newest GS magazine and then change the price of a highly traded coin immediately after publishing the new issue. Are they trying to push everyone to rely on the mobile app or computer version? In this situation, it makes everyone relying on the newest printed version at an extreme disadvantage and in a situation where money can be lost pretty fast. I’m not saying GS is the end all be all but most dealers (and collectors walking the floor at shows) use it and swear by it. It was already affirmed here on the boards that it is the most accurate price guide.
Are you saying you’d be happy to pay full bid now @$135 but were unwilling a couple of days ago when it was $155?
Checked the last week auction sales. PCGS only. $150 to $180 mostly.
P
I checked PCGS and NGC coins on eBay and Heritage over the past several weeks.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
They are very common and I expect them to fall further. With their high pops not surprised. I do not think people have the money for coins like in past. Many investors going into the world arena.
Fascinating comments. As Mopar and I spent the weekend at the show, and had plenty of time in the evenings to do analysis . . . I would first say that his use of the term 'flabbergasted' was NOT hyperbole at all. When he popped up the app while I was checking the new Greysheet, I at first thought it was some sort of mistake or computer glitch. I still wondered until I saw the comments here . . . it is obviously real and real in real time.
At the SLC show, the 'floor' still seemed to be $155 for the commons (yes, just a regular PC or NGC common without any outlier positives or negatives). As for "A", "B", or "C" coins even being mentioned, if anyone alive actually believes the average Joe in a John Deere shirt and an unmatching Astros ball cap nailing down greasy hair can tell (or has even HEARD of an "A", "B", or "C" coin) quality and adjusts his asking price accordingly . . . well, you win the prize of a 1910 Lincoln in cleaned VG for your observation. Dealers . . . in some cases, yes.
Hoping for some insight that shows the depth the Boards are known for . . . this data is quite a bellweather that prompts a bit more intensive thought. Another point Mopar made was the breathtaking speed (not unique, but rather uncommon) with which it 'seemed' to have happened. Sure, there is print 'lag' . . . but the GS makes an effort, and if the market (in the case of common Morgies in 65) still falls 15% before the sheet even becomes 'active' (October), I think this becomes an interesting market data point.
I will be at Grand Junction in a couple weeks . . . I look forward to seeing how things may have adjusted between now and then. No complaints here at all . . . .I just find it quite interesting. I am looking forward to analyzing the effects of adjusted pricing on Morgie commons.
Drunner
. . . oh, and if they have diminished in price for the last few weeks, or compared to Covid, or due to alien abduction . . . . . . the basic asking prices sure have not reduced in Salt Lake yet. That added somewhat to the shock.
Drunner
Dropping of prices by dealers/sellers is almost always delayed. The auctions tend to show it first and then there is a slower process where you see dealers with fixed listings decrease their prices (not all of course).
Yes, and this particular event isn’t as unusual as the OP might think. It just happened to occur in an area of particular interest to him.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
My opinion is that the more common Morgan dollars should fall a lot proportionately up to MS-66. I presume it's not a popular opinion, but I consider these quasi-bullion coins, "widgets", regardless of what the coni looks like. Hugely overpriced proportionately for the relative collectible value. A 50% haircut would still leave these coins relatively overpriced based upon my inference of actual hobbyist collector demand.
That's what I think should happen, but I don't think it will, until there is a lot of forced selling which isn't going to happen with the metal price trend and the biggest asset mania in history.
This particular event is not unusual to me. What is unusual to me is the fact that CDN published the newest up to date print version and within days of releasing it, they updated the price by dropping it ~15%. Surely they too knew about the market softening. The timing of this all is what I’m trying to get at.
I am not particularly interested in common date dollars and don’t go out of my way to buy them. Having said that though, I did use this new price drop yesterday to my advantage and was able to obtain a nice gem common dollar in an old gen 5 NGC holder on trade from another young dealer…
Thank you and I’m sorry that I misconstrued your comments.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I'm saying, that if I see an opportunity to make $15 on common coins (which would be about 15%), I would be more than happy to do that. So, if you need to sell me a bunch of MS 65 morgans at $135 each, I'll take them. That's all I'm saying. (B/C I know where I can turn them instantly minus mailing time).
And yes, I wouldn't have paid $155 a few weeks ago if the floor was $150. The buy price has remained steady for about 3 months now on the ones I monitor.
As for CDN, my guess is that there are certain issues that are dropping, and did drop. Remember, their printing and mailing time is likely 2 weeks....so, its not surprising that there could be a "fast" price adjustment with falling demand.
Surf