Dealers are up to their gills in silver?
jmski52
Posts: 22,869 ✭✭✭✭✭
So, I've talked to a couple dealers about their silver inventories and both of them told me that they have "tons" of 90% silver and that it's not being bought. Interesting times at 85:1.
Andy Schectman from Miles Franklin still insists that while retail demand in the US is languishing, globally - silver is being sucked up fast everywhere.
What do you guys hear on the street?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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Comments
Seems to be moving briskly on Ebay, at spot of just above.
Haven't heard any word on the street... but some factors may be:
Summer doldrums... many other activities that are using individuals time and focus.
Election year in the U.S. An election that... depending on which side wins, can result in vast changes coming, getting better, getting worse, etc. depending on one's viewpoint. Perhaps which much uncertainty, gold is being favored over silver.
Despite the stock market continuing with gains, many are having very tough times with inflation, ....food, housing, and many day to day expenses. Silver is the 'poor man's gold', but many are getting tapped out and silver may be showing some of that.
Time for silver premiums to be reduced even more?
id say yes cause every one is still sitting all this silver. just my opinion. have a good weekend all
a few years ago premiums were very high over spot . A lot of buyers are still carrying a grudge . when it shot up a few months ago dealers tried to enforce those premiums and hit a wall.
now the crocodile tears
Same as we always hear. Overpriced gutter metal. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I'm still sucking up silver. My stash continues to be worth its cost. Additionally much of it was bought with profits from elsewhere.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
bullionexchanges.com (among the cheapest reputable dealers) is getting 29.5X. That's a pretty high premium for a "glut" in 90%. Maybe there is not a glut.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Gills are found on sharks, piranha and lamprey.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Don't get excited coho - it's only a colloquialism.
So, I sold some high premium gold today, and the 90% silver I bought was at a 1% premium. Not bad, I think.
I knew it would happen.
I checked out bullionexchanges.com and they have very little 90% listed and what they do have is for sale at around 21.5x.
rehabilitation strategy ?
remember you can't see volume only asking price.
they make small amounts available at ok price but not what people want the hope is to increase demand
probably the buyers don't buy the dimes or quarters at 21.5
its a pickme
I bought a half bag of quarters at 20.83X. Thinking I might buy some more. I think these prices won't be long for this world.
I knew it would happen.
They have $100 bags of 90% Halves currently up at 21.47x. As many as you like. Still overpriced to me. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
some of the problem is generational. I sell coins at a consignment store i'm doing ok because i have a lot and its not my intention to hold forever or sell everything at once but the customers are somewhat braindead and literally every sale is hit or miss.
younger peoples buying strategy is something else. i have no luck explaining anything about coins to buyers so i dont even try.
there was a guy who came in a lot who bought frequently and one day i was putting out some canadian 1 oz coins like wolves , bison , birds etc for $30 and he smirked at me and said they were over priced and he wasn't falling for that and instead bought 10 canadian silver dollars for $25 each .
the dollars are clearly marked 80% .6 tro oz ASW but they were cheaper by 5 dollars.
They get mad when they can't get a 5% discount because they are paying with a credit card. "That other guy got 5% off " , I say "he paid cash" . I have to pay a fee to take card payments . "thats not my problem" says him
without the card they can't buy at all because they have no money on them
I say "5% is the least of your worries if you pay with a card ."
He buys pokemon cards from another vendor . "He gave me 5% off ! "
"pokemon cards have no value at all and you paid 95% of the asking price , are you sure thats a W for you?"
even though the silver dollar is smaller , lower purity because its $5 cheaper its a better deal?
6 oz for $250 or 10 oz for $300 ? shouldn't be a tough call yet here we are
some might think silver isnt a great buy but if you buy pokemon cards with real money you need a full time babysitter . that trash flies off the shelves though and fake broadswords and dragon figurines with "jeweled" eyes
the store is full of these idiots all day long. Its so bad at times I have no idea what to bring in because i don't even know what they value .
If i put a circulated ike marked $10 and a large cent marked $5 in the case they would buy the ike most of the time.
of course here I would take 5% off on the ike even if they paid with the card
The problem that presents for us though is that 10 or 20 years from now if we want to sell or stuff we are not going to get what we think its worth and maybe we need to think about that now.
The guys that buy goofy ass "rare" silver bars are going to have a tougher time than anyone.
What's even crazier than the Pokemon crowd are these doomsdayers that are convinced after this great economic collapse we are going to be running around swapping gutter metal for a loaf of bread and a dozen eggs. If they were to ever get their wish they will truly be in for a rude awakening. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
the other weird thing is the buyers with a slavish devotion to spot price.
spot bounces all over . I usually price bags of 90% a bit over spot at the start of the week and they sell as marked or don't sell because of spot fluctuations.
say today its a roll of franklins $220 5% off for cash. the owner also doesn't charge sales tax on cash if you are a steady customer fine by me. so credit is $233.75 cash would be $209 thats big enough difference to pay attention to
they will walk out empty handed over that because they didnt bring cash
ok but if you come next week without cash and walk out again you literally wasted 2 round trips of gasoline
then if spot goes up I mark the bags up following week . They rush in with cash and are mad if the stuff isnt $220 anymore .
If spot goes down they rush in and find I haven't lowered the price and leave empty handed again
Like I was going to waste gas making a special trip to LOWER prices
name one item for sale in the world a seller would rush to lower prices on ?
prices worldwide are quick to go up but always sticky on down moves. Every single thing on planet earth works that way
If spot trends down I'll lower prices but not on the basis of a 1 or 2 day blip.
I won't make a trip to raise prices either though so if they see spot go up maybe bring cash on Saturday and buy then Einstein ?
Even i tell them I price that stuff on Monday they still don't get it. in one ear out the other
They don't make any effort to build a relationship , they don't make courtesy purchases , when you ask them "what would you be interested in buying " and then you bring some in for them they rarely buy it. sometimes they won't even answer , it spooks them!
They are used to buying from corporations I think not human people and don't get that its different and buying from a human can be a huge advantage. They don't engage on a human level so never get special treatment.Its all wasted effort on the seller end
Traded some silver for some cattle panels. Not sure about “gills”. I will go with “udders.”
anyone that considers a warning to be a wish clearly needs a head check.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Premiums dropping. Much more selling than buying by customers.
The fact that $100 worth of silver halves will now cost you $2,147 says all you need to know.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
What I know is premiums have collapsed. So much for the great gutter shortage of 2022.
I also know it's still overpriced. I'll stick with the zero premium SLV. It's the most liquid gutter on planet earth. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I think more selling is indicative of a worsening economy and a necessity of survival. Thus , lower premiums. And even with zero premiums , it isn’t like people can afford to buy it when they’re trying to stay afloat. Isn’t this a possibility for the masses ?
anyone who invests in any form of silver, including SLV, and then declares silver to be a bad investment (gutter?) should question their own investment decisions, or, quit talking out both sides of their mouth at the same time.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
imaginary silver is a better value apparently
imaginary silver is a better value apparently
China and India think the real stuff is better. India is buying hand over fist, and China is paying more than $4/oz. arbitrage over the price in the West.
China is also buyng dore' all over the world, which isn't reported in the Silver Institute's data.
Supply is at a 250 million oz. deficit for the 4th year running.
Worldwide solar demand is growing faster.
JPM's stash is dwindling as customers from the East are taking delivery off Comex.
Multiple sources are saying that time is running short before the big squeeze is a real thing.
It's really not rocket science.
Good luck with the paper.
Oh, never mind..............................
I knew it would happen.
I dont think the usual buyers (middle class+) of PMs are hurting. Yes, inflation has impacted some, but those folk arent typically buyers of PMs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What is a courtesy purchase?
That's when you go into a new place that is usually overpriced, ask too many questions and decide you might want to buy something to compensate the shop owner for their time and let them know your a buyer and not just a window shopper.
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Mr. SLV salesman fails to reveal that SLV has a NEGATIVE premium (not zero). And that premium will be increasing in negativity by half a percent per year, every year.
In the somewhat near future I will not be surprised to see a lot more silver items (coins, odd bullion, sterling, etc) head to the smelter to satisfy demand for silver around the world. Industrial buyers, foreign banks, and foreign citizens don't really care about Silver Eagles, 90% coin, commemorative medals, etc. What they want is low-premium refined silver in bulk quantities in a standardized form. Silver will make its way via the smelter.
SLV is useless for industry. You can't make a solar panel or silver-carbon solid-state battery out of "paper" silver.
The possible result of this is that, at some point, SLV might be discounted farther below the "spot" price if confidence in SLV declines. After all, SLV is ultimately worthless if you can't get physical silver out of it. And getting physical silver out of SLV may become harder. It is already impossible for small-time SLV holders to exchange their SLV shares for physical silver from SLV. They have to sell the SLV shares and then buy physical silver elsewhere.
So a time could come when the price of SLV suddenly drops even when the price of physical silver is rising.
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friendly fire incident
SLV is for the trader types
its much better for that impulse. I've known a few physical "flippers" if you don't own a retail outlet where you can buy below spot and sell above that road usually runs straight to the poorhouse
getting started as a collector its good to overpay a few times with a new dealer then you get to see the good stuff after a while.
When I got into junk silver I would never leave a store empty handed . spending is the fastest way to a crusty old dealers black heart
"golly gee mr dealer do you have any of that junk silver?'
works better sometimes than "its time for wapner"
How much is the negative premium in physical, especially ASEs, over the last 2 years?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Buying ASE's is right up there with sports gambling as far as the chance to profit .
Unless they are PCGS first strike ms70 of course
why are these prison bars on my avatar all of a sudden
Ok, so let me see if I’ve accurately captured your philosophy as a seller:
-You believe your customers are somewhat brain dead.
-It’s not worth your time to educate customers regarding the value of coins, even when they buy regularly from you.
-You do not lower your prices when spot moves down.
-You will only treat customers well when they overpay you for items.
-You have disdain for your customers because they place value on what you think are worthless items.
-You believe the burden is on your customers to develop a relationship, even though you think them idiots, want them to overpay, and admit to not being at all helpful.
Did I get all that right?
yes , not really, correct, no, some, the last bit of hyperbole is just ridiculous
Its not the stock market but even if it was the only way to guarantee a transaction if you want in is to pay the ask , the only way to for sure exit your position is to take the bid.
unlike the stock market though , in person deals can be improved by getting the other party to like you a bit. Spend some cash , make some small talk , listen to a boring story whatever.
be a repeat customer and the dealer will take the time to actually remember what you like , and maybe even get things for you as a favor.
greasing the wheels is a thing
tough sometimes for the socially awkward , but you gotta man up once in a while
Business transactions are a two-way street, but you only see one side. Friendly dealers get repeat business and customers often become friends. Your customers can absolutely tell that you can’t stand them. The root of your problem is that you believe you are superior to them, but you are not. You have just as many failings as those you despise. Try a little tolerance for others and consider that you, too, are imperfect.
who says I despise them? business is business though . Don't waste my time and i wont waste yours is the best way to do business. If you can't spend a little money to build a relationship then you are not a serious customer.
The truth is you will never be friends with a dealer unless you don't do business .
If you think you are then go sell a coin back to a dealer that you bought a year ago and that will be the end of your friendship
His (then your) PCGS MS66 gold bean will become overgraded so fast your head will spin and the ones that he graded and stapled into 2x2's will be worse. Then just point to one of those where it says Gem BU in his own handwriting which he wants to call VF now that its time to buy it back and watch the fireworks. (this is no joke , if you don't believe me give it a whirl)
The friendship usually dies when the customer sees what markups his "friend" has been charging him .
You think your customers are idiots and brain dead. You despise them.
I feel for you, bronco. Your world must be very small indeed.
do you need a tissue? i have a box here somewhere
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When it first started, one share of SLV represented one troy oz of 999 silver.
As of the moment of this posting:
SLV price: $25.58
Silver "spot": $28.00
ASE wholesale: $29.00 (approximate, $33 retail)
So SLV has a negative premium of 8.6%. And that negative premium is guaranteed to go farther negative by 0,25% per year, every year. But if confidence wanes in SLV as a custodian of physical silver, the negative premium on SLV could become much more negative. The premium on SLV will never become less negative.
ASEs currently have a positive premium of 3.5% (wholesale). That is in the lower end of the range, historically. It is unlikely that the ASE premium will go lower from here (although that is not assured). But the ASE premium seems more likely to go up from here than down from here.
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Today I can pay $25.58 for the SLV and I can turn right back around and sell the SLV for $25.58.
You want to buy an ASE for $33 that you can turn right back around and sell for $29? An instant 12% loss. We'd call that a dumb tax over here in the real world. I knew gutter stackers were terrible at math but come on man use yer grape. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
you are just fiddling around
initiating a bunch of meaningless transactions and between them the market maker and uncle sam are making the same or more money than you but they offloaded all the risk to you.
And they didn't force you to do it , you volunteer
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I don't buy ASEs for $33. I would buy at $29 like everyone else.
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My bank account certainly doesn't think they are meaningless and the fact that I can retire 14 years prior to my full retirement age tells me I must have done something right. Glad I volunteered to give market makers and the great uncle sam a piece of the pie. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I bought another half bag of 90% quarters yesterday. Good pricing, good timing, I think.
I knew it would happen.
What was the price if an ASE when SLV was incepted? What is the sell price of that ASE today? What has been your return?
We'll be waiting for your answers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear