@Davidk7 said:
Have you been under a rock for the last 20 years? The 1901 $10's discussed in this thread are gradeflation at its finest. They're not even gem, let alone superb gem. Have you seen just how much less one TPG's coins sell for at auction compared to another's?
He’s not posting like he’s been under a rock. And with respect to the single group of MS67/67+ 1901 $10’s being discussed, I agree with him that it, alone, isn’t necessarily proof of gradeflation. It looks more like a one-off event.l It would be different if other submissions had resulted in conspicuous quantities of additional MS67’s.
I say all of this as a firm believer that noticeable and disturbing gradeflation has occurred. I base that on having seen countless coins upgrade over time, many by more than a point. Yes, some of them were originally graded conservatively. However, many others were not.
It wasn't just about the group of 25 being discussed, Mark. I already explained that its my comment that shows how the populations have exploded since 2017. There were 54 coins graded ms66 by NGC as of 11/17. As of today, there are around 850 coins graded at the 66 level. There were 7 coins graded at the 67 level in 2017, and now theres 118.
Though the OP group of coins is a blatant example if you ask me, my point was that the overall increase in population of coins in superb gem levels is between 15-20x what it was 7-8 years ago.
To you, is that, or is that not, an indication of severe gradeflation?
Dan, I understood that. And my hunch is that you and @You might not be too far apart in your thinking, but have different focuses.
Perhaps you are correct Mark. Though If that's the case, and @you agree with the general sentiment of my comments, and @you agree that gradeflation exists, then why would @you nit pick my argument because @you don't like the example I used to demonstrate it? I guess that's where I get annoyed, when an anonymous poster with an ambiguous username, who hasn't otherwise contributed to the thread in a meaningful way and hasn't posted an opinion of their own, feels the need to "poke holes" (their words) in my argument. Why? Whats the purpose if there's no counterpoint or counterargument, just an attempt to discredit what I'm saying? Everyone loves to jump in and correct someone else, but no one has the courage or the confidence to post their own opinion. It's unnecessary nitpicking, and I think that @you and @jmlanzaf ought to grab a beer one of these days, lol.
Anyway, you never answered my question. The NGC population of 1901 eagles in MS66 and MS67 has increased 15-20x over the past 7 years.
In your opinion, Is that, or is that not a characteristic manifestation of gradeflation?
@Davidk7 said:
Have you been under a rock for the last 20 years? The 1901 $10's discussed in this thread are gradeflation at its finest. They're not even gem, let alone superb gem. Have you seen just how much less one TPG's coins sell for at auction compared to another's?
He’s not posting like he’s been under a rock. And with respect to the single group of MS67/67+ 1901 $10’s being discussed, I agree with him that it, alone, isn’t necessarily proof of gradeflation. It looks more like a one-off event.l It would be different if other submissions had resulted in conspicuous quantities of additional MS67’s.
I say all of this as a firm believer that noticeable and disturbing gradeflation has occurred. I base that on having seen countless coins upgrade over time, many by more than a point. Yes, some of them were originally graded conservatively. However, many others were not.
It wasn't just about the group of 25 being discussed, Mark. I already explained that its my comment that shows how the populations have exploded since 2017. There were 54 coins graded ms66 by NGC as of 11/17. As of today, there are around 850 coins graded at the 66 level. There were 7 coins graded at the 67 level in 2017, and now theres 118.
Though the OP group of coins is a blatant example if you ask me, my point was that the overall increase in population of coins in superb gem levels is between 15-20x what it was 7-8 years ago.
To you, is that, or is that not, an indication of severe gradeflation?
Dan, I understood that. And my hunch is that you and @You might not be too far apart in your thinking, but have different focuses.
Perhaps you are correct Mark. Though If that's the case, and @you agree with the general sentiment of my comments, and @you agree that gradeflation exists, then why would @you nit pick my argument because @you don't like the example I used to demonstrate it? I guess that's where I get annoyed, when an anonymous poster with an ambiguous username, who hasn't otherwise contributed to the thread in a meaningful way and hasn't posted an opinion of their own, feels the need to "poke holes" (their words) in my argument. Why? Whats the purpose if there's no counterpoint or counterargument, just an attempt to discredit what I'm saying? Everyone loves to jump in and correct someone else, but no one has the courage or the confidence to post their own opinion. It's unnecessary nitpicking, and I think that @you and @jmlanzaf ought to grab a beer one of these days, lol.
Anyway, you never answered my question. The NGC population of 1901 eagles in MS66 and MS67 has increased 15-20x over the past 7 years.
In your opinion, Is that, or is that not a characteristic manifestation of gradeflation?
Dan, in answer to your question, the large increase in population could very well be a manifestation of gradeflation. However, while chances of such are slim, every once in a while a large group or groups of especially high grade coins seemingly come out of nowhere and greatly distort previous populations.
As one example, look at 1857-S $20’s. Someone could compare their pre-shipwreck discovery population to their post-shipwreck discovery, conservation and grading population, then make the same argument about them that you did about the 1901 $10’s. That was an extreme example, but it’s certainly not uniqie.
So, dramatic increases (either by number or percentage) in populations can be evidence of gradeflation, but it’s not a slam dunk. Along with population increases, I focus on individual coins or groups of coins whose grades I know have increased. There are huge quantities of such coins.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Davidk7 said:
Have you been under a rock for the last 20 years? The 1901 $10's discussed in this thread are gradeflation at its finest. They're not even gem, let alone superb gem. Have you seen just how much less one TPG's coins sell for at auction compared to another's?
He’s not posting like he’s been under a rock. And with respect to the single group of MS67/67+ 1901 $10’s being discussed, I agree with him that it, alone, isn’t necessarily proof of gradeflation. It looks more like a one-off event.l It would be different if other submissions had resulted in conspicuous quantities of additional MS67’s.
I say all of this as a firm believer that noticeable and disturbing gradeflation has occurred. I base that on having seen countless coins upgrade over time, many by more than a point. Yes, some of them were originally graded conservatively. However, many others were not.
It wasn't just about the group of 25 being discussed, Mark. I already explained that its my comment that shows how the populations have exploded since 2017. There were 54 coins graded ms66 by NGC as of 11/17. As of today, there are around 850 coins graded at the 66 level. There were 7 coins graded at the 67 level in 2017, and now theres 118.
Though the OP group of coins is a blatant example if you ask me, my point was that the overall increase in population of coins in superb gem levels is between 15-20x what it was 7-8 years ago.
To you, is that, or is that not, an indication of severe gradeflation?
Dan, I understood that. And my hunch is that you and @You might not be too far apart in your thinking, but have different focuses.
Perhaps you are correct Mark. Though If that's the case, and @you agree with the general sentiment of my comments, and @you agree that gradeflation exists, then why would @you nit pick my argument because @you don't like the example I used to demonstrate it? I guess that's where I get annoyed, when an anonymous poster with an ambiguous username, who hasn't otherwise contributed to the thread in a meaningful way and hasn't posted an opinion of their own, feels the need to "poke holes" (their words) in my argument. Why? Whats the purpose if there's no counterpoint or counterargument, just an attempt to discredit what I'm saying? Everyone loves to jump in and correct someone else, but no one has the courage or the confidence to post their own opinion. It's unnecessary nitpicking, and I think that @you and @jmlanzaf ought to grab a beer one of these days, lol.
Anyway, you never answered my question. The NGC population of 1901 eagles in MS66 and MS67 has increased 15-20x over the past 7 years.
In your opinion, Is that, or is that not a characteristic manifestation of gradeflation?
Dan, in answer to your question, the large increase in population could very well be a manifestation of gradeflation. However, while chances of such are slim, every once in a while a large group or groups of especially high grade coins seemingly come out of nowhere and greatly distort previous populations.
As one example, look at 1857-S $20’s. Someone could compare their pre-shipwreck discovery population to their post-shipwreck discovery, conservation and grading population, then make the same argument about them that you did about the 1901 $10’s. That was an extreme example, but it’s certainly not uniqie.
So, dramatic increases (either by number or percentage) in populations can be evidence of gradeflation, but it’s not a slam dunk. Along with population increases, I focus on individual coins or groups of coins whose grades I know have increased. There are huge quantities of such coins.
Considering that we already know what the MS67 1901 $10's look like - and they're nothing special - wouldn't it be fair to rule out the possibility that these coins came from a newly discovered hoard of spectacular 1901's? FWIW, I think it's very safe to say that these coins are either evidence of gradeflation, or that something went wrong at NGC with this particular deal, or both.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
As one example, look at 1857-S $20’s. Someone could compare their pre-shipwreck discovery population to their post-shipwreck discovery, conservation and grading population, then make the same argument about them that you did about the 1901 $10’s. That was an extreme example, but it’s certainly not uniqie.
So, dramatic increases (either by number or percentage) in populations can be evidence of gradeflation, but it’s not a slam dunk. Along with population increases, I focus on individual coins or groups of coins whose grades I know have increased. There are huge quantities of such coins.
@PeakRarities - another example - many dates of pre-33 gold have been “Fairmonted” the past few years. Generally the common dates are not pedigreed to Fairmont and did not go through Stacks - they’ve been quietly distributed according to Doug Winter.
Yup, which is precisely why I moved away from standard issue gold for my own collection over the past couple years. The pre-33 market is still flooded, as we see now, any common date or semi common date double eagle in a pedestrian grade is basically worth melt now. That's due more to the sharp gold increase than the fairmont hoard, but heres an example of how one can get "fairmonted' pretty easily-
Not long ago, I bought a coin in the 5 figure range. When I bought the coin, I paid 10 back of bid. Grey bid seemed high at the time, and the comps were sparse and erratic, but I found solace in the fact that I was only paying 90% of bid.
Not 2 full business days later, the greysheet bid and CPG dropped 23% in one fell swoop. Now, the price I paid was 13% over bid, only 7% back of full CPG retail. I don't think I'll lose money on the coin, but it really sucks when you get rug pulled like that. Obviously greysheet is not the end all be all, and one needs to rely on auction comps above all, but the Greysheet is still a respectable layer of protection that many in the industry base their buying decisions on. The coin wasnt spectacular, it has a cac sticker but it was just "ok" for the grade in my opinion.
Maybe this was one of those hoards where the coins are fresh and lustrous enough that everything gets a 1+ point bump. Seems like that might have been the case for many Wells Fargo NM $20s. NGC cut me off from searching, but I got to coin 104 or so on that submission and the 67s and 66+s kept coming so it seems very possible that most of the 1901 high grade population comes from this deal. Not arguing that most of these don’t look overgraded, but perhaps highly unflattering photos are in play for a number of those images.
@Davidk7 said:
Have you been under a rock for the last 20 years? The 1901 $10's discussed in this thread are gradeflation at its finest. They're not even gem, let alone superb gem. Have you seen just how much less one TPG's coins sell for at auction compared to another's?
He’s not posting like he’s been under a rock. And with respect to the single group of MS67/67+ 1901 $10’s being discussed, I agree with him that it, alone, isn’t necessarily proof of gradeflation. It looks more like a one-off event.l It would be different if other submissions had resulted in conspicuous quantities of additional MS67’s.
I say all of this as a firm believer that noticeable and disturbing gradeflation has occurred. I base that on having seen countless coins upgrade over time, many by more than a point. Yes, some of them were originally graded conservatively. However, many others were not.
It wasn't just about the group of 25 being discussed, Mark. I already explained that its my comment that shows how the populations have exploded since 2017. There were 54 coins graded ms66 by NGC as of 11/17. As of today, there are around 850 coins graded at the 66 level. There were 7 coins graded at the 67 level in 2017, and now theres 118.
Though the OP group of coins is a blatant example if you ask me, my point was that the overall increase in population of coins in superb gem levels is between 15-20x what it was 7-8 years ago.
To you, is that, or is that not, an indication of severe gradeflation?
Dan, I understood that. And my hunch is that you and @You might not be too far apart in your thinking, but have different focuses.
Perhaps you are correct Mark. Though If that's the case, and @you agree with the general sentiment of my comments, and @you agree that gradeflation exists, then why would @you nit pick my argument because @you don't like the example I used to demonstrate it? I guess that's where I get annoyed, when an anonymous poster with an ambiguous username, who hasn't otherwise contributed to the thread in a meaningful way and hasn't posted an opinion of their own, feels the need to "poke holes" (their words) in my argument. Why? Whats the purpose if there's no counterpoint or counterargument, just an attempt to discredit what I'm saying? Everyone loves to jump in and correct someone else, but no one has the courage or the confidence to post their own opinion. It's unnecessary nitpicking, and I think that @you and @jmlanzaf ought to grab a beer one of these days, lol.
Anyway, you never answered my question. The NGC population of 1901 eagles in MS66 and MS67 has increased 15-20x over the past 7 years.
In your opinion, Is that, or is that not a characteristic manifestation of gradeflation?
Dan, in answer to your question, the large increase in population could very well be a manifestation of gradeflation. However, while chances of such are slim, every once in a while a large group or groups of especially high grade coins seemingly come out of nowhere and greatly distort previous populations.
As one example, look at 1857-S $20’s. Someone could compare their pre-shipwreck discovery population to their post-shipwreck discovery, conservation and grading population, then make the same argument about them that you did about the 1901 $10’s. That was an extreme example, but it’s certainly not uniqie.
So, dramatic increases (either by number or percentage) in populations can be evidence of gradeflation, but it’s not a slam dunk. Along with population increases, I focus on individual coins or groups of coins whose grades I know have increased. There are huge quantities of such coins.
Considering that we already know what the MS67 1901 $10's look like - and they're nothing special - wouldn't it be fair to rule out the possibility that these coins came from a newly discovered hoard of spectacular 1901's? FWIW, I think it's very safe to say that these coins are either evidence of gradeflation, or that something went wrong at NGC with this particular deal, or both.
I wasn’t including the 1901 $10’s among newly discovered high grade groups of coins coming out of the woodwork. Sorry if I gave that impression.
At the very least, something went wrong with that deal. Still, if a group - let’s say 10 or more - of others of that date upgraded from 66 to 67, to me, that would be clearer evidence of gradeflation than the larger group we’ve been discussing.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Davidk7 said: @MFeld Mark, I could explain my thoughts but I don't really have the desire to. This discussion devolved into criticisms and discourse that are just not relevant to the subject at hand.
Just to be clear, you came out swinging with an attack so I'm not sure you can speak about how the discussion "devolved into criticisms and discourse that are just not relevant to the subject at hand" as if you were not party to it, or somehow above it.
I never said I was above it. I also can admit that my statement was rather harsh and I could have used a more appropriate tone. Now, we move on
Collector of Capped Bust Halves, SLQ's, Commems, and random cool stuff! @davidv_numismatics on Instagram
@Davidk7 said:
Have you been under a rock for the last 20 years? The 1901 $10's discussed in this thread are gradeflation at its finest. They're not even gem, let alone superb gem. Have you seen just how much less one TPG's coins sell for at auction compared to another's?
He’s not posting like he’s been under a rock. And with respect to the single group of MS67/67+ 1901 $10’s being discussed, I agree with him that it, alone, isn’t necessarily proof of gradeflation. It looks more like a one-off event.l It would be different if other submissions had resulted in conspicuous quantities of additional MS67’s.
I say all of this as a firm believer that noticeable and disturbing gradeflation has occurred. I base that on having seen countless coins upgrade over time, many by more than a point. Yes, some of them were originally graded conservatively. However, many others were not.
It wasn't just about the group of 25 being discussed, Mark. I already explained that its my comment that shows how the populations have exploded since 2017. There were 54 coins graded ms66 by NGC as of 11/17. As of today, there are around 850 coins graded at the 66 level. There were 7 coins graded at the 67 level in 2017, and now theres 118.
Though the OP group of coins is a blatant example if you ask me, my point was that the overall increase in population of coins in superb gem levels is between 15-20x what it was 7-8 years ago.
To you, is that, or is that not, an indication of severe gradeflation?
Dan, I understood that. And my hunch is that you and @You might not be too far apart in your thinking, but have different focuses.
Perhaps you are correct Mark. Though If that's the case, and @you agree with the general sentiment of my comments, and @you agree that gradeflation exists, then why would @you nit pick my argument because @you don't like the example I used to demonstrate it? I guess that's where I get annoyed, when an anonymous poster with an ambiguous username, who hasn't otherwise contributed to the thread in a meaningful way and hasn't posted an opinion of their own, feels the need to "poke holes" (their words) in my argument. Why? Whats the purpose if there's no counterpoint or counterargument, just an attempt to discredit what I'm saying? Everyone loves to jump in and correct someone else, but no one has the courage or the confidence to post their own opinion. It's unnecessary nitpicking, and I think that @you and @jmlanzaf ought to grab a beer one of these days, lol.
Anyway, you never answered my question. The NGC population of 1901 eagles in MS66 and MS67 has increased 15-20x over the past 7 years.
In your opinion, Is that, or is that not a characteristic manifestation of gradeflation?
Dan, in answer to your question, the large increase in population could very well be a manifestation of gradeflation. However, while chances of such are slim, every once in a while a large group or groups of especially high grade coins seemingly come out of nowhere and greatly distort previous populations.
As one example, look at 1857-S $20’s. Someone could compare their pre-shipwreck discovery population to their post-shipwreck discovery, conservation and grading population, then make the same argument about them that you did about the 1901 $10’s. That was an extreme example, but it’s certainly not uniqie.
So, dramatic increases (either by number or percentage) in populations can be evidence of gradeflation, but it’s not a slam dunk. Along with population increases, I focus on individual coins or groups of coins whose grades I know have increased. There are huge quantities of such coins.
Considering that we already know what the MS67 1901 $10's look like - and they're nothing special - wouldn't it be fair to rule out the possibility that these coins came from a newly discovered hoard of spectacular 1901's? FWIW, I think it's very safe to say that these coins are either evidence of gradeflation, or that something went wrong at NGC with this particular deal, or both.
I wasn’t including the 1901 $10’s among newly discovered high grade groups of coins coming out of the woodwork. Sorry if I gave that impression.
At the very least, something went wrong with that deal. Still, if a group - let’s say 10 or more - of others of that date upgraded from 66 to 67, to me, that would be clearer evidence of gradeflation than the larger group we’ve been discussing.
Or else whatever went wrong was going wrong more often than not.
This post is by far the best discussion I have read on this forum. I just have a thought that a computer AI grading system might solve all these problems. It might make some mistakes in the beginning, but over time, it would learn and reduce all the inconsistency. I know it will reduce the resubmission for higher grade and maybe that is the reason TPG don't want to use it.
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Perhaps you are correct Mark. Though If that's the case, and @you agree with the general sentiment of my comments, and @you agree that gradeflation exists, then why would @you nit pick my argument because @you don't like the example I used to demonstrate it? I guess that's where I get annoyed, when an anonymous poster with an ambiguous username, who hasn't otherwise contributed to the thread in a meaningful way and hasn't posted an opinion of their own, feels the need to "poke holes" (their words) in my argument. Why? Whats the purpose if there's no counterpoint or counterargument, just an attempt to discredit what I'm saying? Everyone loves to jump in and correct someone else, but no one has the courage or the confidence to post their own opinion. It's unnecessary nitpicking, and I think that @you and @jmlanzaf ought to grab a beer one of these days, lol.
Anyway, you never answered my question. The NGC population of 1901 eagles in MS66 and MS67 has increased 15-20x over the past 7 years.
In your opinion, Is that, or is that not a characteristic manifestation of gradeflation?
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Dan, in answer to your question, the large increase in population could very well be a manifestation of gradeflation. However, while chances of such are slim, every once in a while a large group or groups of especially high grade coins seemingly come out of nowhere and greatly distort previous populations.
As one example, look at 1857-S $20’s. Someone could compare their pre-shipwreck discovery population to their post-shipwreck discovery, conservation and grading population, then make the same argument about them that you did about the 1901 $10’s. That was an extreme example, but it’s certainly not uniqie.
So, dramatic increases (either by number or percentage) in populations can be evidence of gradeflation, but it’s not a slam dunk. Along with population increases, I focus on individual coins or groups of coins whose grades I know have increased. There are huge quantities of such coins.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Considering that we already know what the MS67 1901 $10's look like - and they're nothing special - wouldn't it be fair to rule out the possibility that these coins came from a newly discovered hoard of spectacular 1901's? FWIW, I think it's very safe to say that these coins are either evidence of gradeflation, or that something went wrong at NGC with this particular deal, or both.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Yup, which is precisely why I moved away from standard issue gold for my own collection over the past couple years. The pre-33 market is still flooded, as we see now, any common date or semi common date double eagle in a pedestrian grade is basically worth melt now. That's due more to the sharp gold increase than the fairmont hoard, but heres an example of how one can get "fairmonted' pretty easily-
Not long ago, I bought a coin in the 5 figure range. When I bought the coin, I paid 10 back of bid. Grey bid seemed high at the time, and the comps were sparse and erratic, but I found solace in the fact that I was only paying 90% of bid.
Not 2 full business days later, the greysheet bid and CPG dropped 23% in one fell swoop. Now, the price I paid was 13% over bid, only 7% back of full CPG retail. I don't think I'll lose money on the coin, but it really sucks when you get rug pulled like that. Obviously greysheet is not the end all be all, and one needs to rely on auction comps above all, but the Greysheet is still a respectable layer of protection that many in the industry base their buying decisions on. The coin wasnt spectacular, it has a cac sticker but it was just "ok" for the grade in my opinion.
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Maybe this was one of those hoards where the coins are fresh and lustrous enough that everything gets a 1+ point bump. Seems like that might have been the case for many Wells Fargo NM $20s. NGC cut me off from searching, but I got to coin 104 or so on that submission and the 67s and 66+s kept coming so it seems very possible that most of the 1901 high grade population comes from this deal. Not arguing that most of these don’t look overgraded, but perhaps highly unflattering photos are in play for a number of those images.
That is typically where the argument descends @drewu and I typically wouldn’t buy that argument, but after looking at Trueviews lately, who knows.
I wasn’t including the 1901 $10’s among newly discovered high grade groups of coins coming out of the woodwork. Sorry if I gave that impression.
At the very least, something went wrong with that deal. Still, if a group - let’s say 10 or more - of others of that date upgraded from 66 to 67, to me, that would be clearer evidence of gradeflation than the larger group we’ve been discussing.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I never said I was above it. I also can admit that my statement was rather harsh and I could have used a more appropriate tone. Now, we move on
Collector of Capped Bust Halves, SLQ's, Commems, and random cool stuff! @davidv_numismatics on Instagram
Or else whatever went wrong was going wrong more often than not.
gradeflation is when the standards change over time.
If the majority of ms67's came from this submission I would not call it gradeflation but nefarious behavior.
What is "gra" and why is everyone talking about it deflating?
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This post is by far the best discussion I have read on this forum. I just have a thought that a computer AI grading system might solve all these problems. It might make some mistakes in the beginning, but over time, it would learn and reduce all the inconsistency. I know it will reduce the resubmission for higher grade and maybe that is the reason TPG don't want to use it.