@jmski52 said:
I have all of the basic essentials and more. I'll survive the consequences of the Fed's mismanagement & market manipulations better than most. Thanks for your concern.
Remember I should be able to offer you eggs at the bargain price of 1Doz eggs per 10ozt gutter bars. Add me to your contact list, that may end up being the best price in town. RGDS!
@cohodk said:
Some of us don't need others to tell us how and what to think.
I know that's a novel concept, but us redneck hillbillies are known for our ingenuity.
Still wondering how you are going to survive the consequences of events you fear.
But yet.... you and some others seem to be compelled to tell US how and what to think; and to take potshots at those who do express their own opinions. I dunno... I've done ok throughout the years with some advice from 'experts'.... but more on instincts and common sense. Perhaps if I let the 'experts' handle my investments, I could have done better; or perhaps I would have ended up like customers of the recent gold selling and storage company mentioned in the forum.... ......with the customers asking 'where's my gold? '
Most of the analysts and "experts" you anti-dollar folks cite are just looking for clicks. They don't work for any established firm....they don't manage $$$....they don't put out their peformance over time. Which means they are like a couch potato saying he knows what the guy on the TV is doing wrong when he throws a bad pass or can't hit a 98-MPH fastball.
If you REALLY want to learn about the Dollar, reserve currency status, Saudi Arabia and other de-dollarization myths....read this article (might need to subscribe or get a print BARRON'S from 2 weeks ago):
@jmski52 said:
I have all of the basic essentials and more. I'll survive the consequences of the Fed's mismanagement & market manipulations better than most. Thanks for your concern.
@jmski52 said: I should be able to offer you eggs at the bargain price of 1Doz eggs per 10ozt gutter bars.
That sounds about like one of your typical buy offers. Thanks, but no thanks.
But it may come down to that. Are you prepared?
Heck, eggs could unobtainable at any price if the collapse and bail-ins you predict come to fruition.
Have you truly thought about the consequences of your dire warnings? Have you thought those consequences are so severe that they won't happen? Have you considered your preparedness may just be a false sense of security?
@cohodk said:
Some of us don't need others to tell us how and what to think.
I know that's a novel concept, but us redneck hillbillies are known for our ingenuity.
Still wondering how you are going to survive the consequences of events you fear.
But yet.... you and some others seem to be compelled to tell US how and what to think; and to take potshots at those who do express their own opinions.
Maybe some of us just give back what we receive?
Or maybe some of us just want to propose questions to stimulate critical thinking--another novel idea?
These threads would just rot in hell if not for the attempts to break some out of their echo chamber prison.
@GoldFinger1969 said: Most of the analysts and "experts" you anti-dollar folks cite are just looking for clicks. They don't work for any established firm....they don't manage $$$....they don't put out their peformance over time. Which means they are like a couch potato saying he knows what the guy on the TV is doing wrong when he throws a bad pass or can't hit a 98-MPH fastball.
If you REALLY want to learn about the Dollar, reserve currency status, Saudi Arabia and other de-dollarization myths....read this article (might need to subscribe or get a print BARRON'S from 2 weeks ago):
I don't pay a subscription fee to read mainstream media but your link did provide a free sentence:
"The dollar’s long-anticipated downturn has begun, but don’t confuse it with the talk of dedollarization."
Your author is misguided. The dollar downturn is partially because of world wide de-dollarization. US economic policy at home accounts for the remaining downturn in the dollar. This all of course is based on the definition of "dollar downturn." I think most would agree that it is defined by a decline in the dollar's purchasing power.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I watched...mostly...Laffer thinks El Salvador will be the "shining City on the hill". ROFL!!
A majority of his diatribe was on bitcon. Anybody ever even seen one? There is a whole new level of gullibility out there. A whole new level. You guys rail against the billionaires and megawealthy, but are willing to offer your compliance to a "virtual" data entry set controlled by the billionaires and megawealthy.
We are weak...so weak... if this is the prevailing thought. You aint prepared.
BTW---Wasnt Laffer on Reagans advisory team (and Trumps). Reagan started the massive deficit spending. National debt was $950 billion when Reagan took office and $2.6 Trillion when he left--a 3 fold increase. Trump started at $20 trillion and $28 trillion when he left. So under Laffer's advise the G added $10 trillion, or nearly 1/3 of the debt. And you follow this guy? And Trump gave him the Medal of Freedom....seems he put us all in dcars "servitude".
@jmski52 said:
You think Barrons editors don’t have a vested interest in pumping their own subscriptions (clicks)?
The difference is: their names and performance are out there 52 times a year. Their reputations -- and jobs -- are on the line being judged by the smartest minds in finance.
Arthur Laffer thinks the dollar is in trouble. Is he an expert? Ya think?
I've followed and read AL for over 40 years. He is NOT an expert on the dollar but I respect his views. He didn't say if the dollar is in trouble from cyclical or secular forces. It's the former, not the latter.
Stop being brainwashed, GF. Your clients will thank you.
Being informed is not brainwashed. The people you guys read are like the gold bugs of the 1970's who were never right again.
@derryb said:
Your author is misguided. The dollar downturn is partially because of world wide de-dollarization. US economic policy at home accounts for the remaining downturn in the dollar. This all of course is based on the definition of "dollar downturn." I think most would agree that it is defined by a decline in the dollar's purchasing power.
Marc Chandler is a currency analyst and trader with 45 years experience. He was there when exchange rates were fixed to floating.
The Fed is cutting first....this is a cyclical decline and long overduel. My S&P 500 stocks will benefit.
The only thing I know about Art Laffer is this exchange he had with Peter Schiff in 2006.
Art Laffer's sentiments in the video remind me of posts by @cohodk , @blitzdude , and @GoldFinger1969 .
But it was Schiff who turned out to be spot-on correct and Laffer was entirely wrong (see the first 2-1/2 minutes):
"We are now at a point when risk is at its maximum. That is the time to get out of the bubble assets of stocks, bonds, property, and the US dollar." - Egon von Greyerz
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The Fed is cutting first....this is a cyclical decline and long overduel. My S&P 500 stocks will benefit.
A smart FED would raise interest rates to hammer inflation. Short term pain is always better than the long term pain that zero interest rates and QE gave us.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"We are now at a point when risk is at its maximum. That is the time to get out of the bubble assets of stocks, bonds, property, and the US dollar." - Egon von Greyerz
Dream on with your king world magic pixie dust. You and Jim are sitting on pounds of gutter worth half its non-inflation-adjusted 1980 value. Stocks have done absolutely nothing but BOOM! Your gutter was a TERRIBLE investment. Hopefully you at least picked up some "Metal of Kings". THKS!
Your gutter was a TERRIBLE investment. Hopefully you at least picked up some "Metal of Kings". THKS!
I don't invest in silver, I hold it for long term dollar insurance. YOU are the one who lost his shirt by thinking silver was an investment. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Your gutter was a TERRIBLE investment. Hopefully you at least picked up some "Metal of Kings". THKS!
I don't invest in silver, I hold it for long term dollar insurance. YOU are the one who lost his shirt by thinking silver was an investment. LOL
Dollar insurance? Your gutter is worth half the dollars it was 45 years ago. Add in inflation and your insurance went from dollars to cents. RGDS!
Your choice of using "45 years ago" with silver at an all time high of $50, is interesting. Is that when you bought and why you are so intimidated by silver. Only a fool would have bought at such a high.
But, I'll play your silly game using your same selective data: Your dollars are worth 314% less than they were 45 years ago. So, tell me again, who's in the gutter and who had insurance? LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The Fed is cutting first....this is a cyclical decline and long overduel. My S&P 500 stocks will benefit.
A smart FED would raise interest rates to hammer inflation. Short term pain is always better than the long term pain that zero interest rates and QE gave us.
They did raise rates....so you saying they're smart?
The Fed is cutting first....this is a cyclical decline and long overduel. My S&P 500 stocks will benefit.
A smart FED would raise interest rates to hammer inflation. Short term pain is always better than the long term pain that zero interest rates and QE gave us.
They did raise rates....so you saying they're smart?
Token rates. Volker tamed inflation (for many years) with 20% interest rates in 1981. That's how you hammer inflation.
The current consensus that FED will soon lower rate will only fuel inflation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The Fed is cutting first....this is a cyclical decline and long overduel. My S&P 500 stocks will benefit.
A smart FED would raise interest rates to hammer inflation. Short term pain is always better than the long term pain that zero interest rates and QE gave us.
They did raise rates....so you saying they're smart?
Token rates. Volker tamed inflation (for many years) with 20% interest rates in 1981. That's how you hammer inflation.
The current consensus that FED will soon lower rate will only fuel inflation.
Inflation was 15% then. Today's number is 2.9% and inflation average over 4% from 1983 to 1990. Was that tamed?
Yes, inflation will probably run at rate higher than in the 2010's. It was frequently 3-4% during 1990 to 2005.
I know you would love to see 20% so you can lock in those 30 yr t-bonds.
The Fed is cutting first....this is a cyclical decline and long overduel. My S&P 500 stocks will benefit.
A smart FED would raise interest rates to hammer inflation. Short term pain is always better than the long term pain that zero interest rates and QE gave us.
They did raise rates....so you saying they're smart?
Token rates. Volker tamed inflation (for many years) with 20% interest rates in 1981. That's how you hammer inflation.
The current consensus that FED will soon lower rate will only fuel inflation.
Inflation was 15% then. Today's number is 2.9%
The Bureau of Labors Statics (BLS BS) tells us the average price of food in the United States increased 2.2% in the 12 months ended June. They must be using a time machine to do their shopping.
What greater proof is there that we are being lied to and that YOU should not be relying on and quoting their data?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"We are now at a point when risk is at its maximum. That is the time to get out of the bubble assets of stocks, bonds, property, and the US dollar." - Egon von Greyerz
I completely disagree. There are 3 things driving the stock market:
1. Earnings - up 11% in Q3 after also being up in Q2
2. Interest Rates - expecting a cut in Sept
3. The election - this is the wildcard at the moment. Without getting political, one drives the market to all-time highs, the other has the potential to hurt the markets. I think #3 encompasses global tensions uncertainty which many like to list as a fourth driver.
I personally am not a strong believer in #2. What the Fed does to me doesn't matter if spending is not lowered. Also, historically a cut in rates happens because of bad economic conditions - which ends up effecting #1.
"We are now at a point when risk is at its maximum. That is the time to get out of the bubble assets of stocks, bonds, property, and the US dollar." - Egon von Greyerz
I completely disagree. There are 3 things driving the stock market:
1. Earnings - up 11% in Q3 after also being up in Q2
2. Interest Rates - expecting a cut in Sept
3. The election - this is the wildcard at the moment. Without getting political, one drives the market to all-time highs, the other has the potential to hurt the markets. I think #3 encompasses global tensions uncertainty which many like to list as a fourth driver.
I personally am not a strong believer in #2. What the Fed does to me doesn't matter if spending is not lowered. Also, historically a cut in rates happens because of bad economic conditions - which ends up effecting #1.
fully respect your disagreement and argument and the way it was presented
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Your gutter was a TERRIBLE investment. Hopefully you at least picked up some "Metal of Kings". THKS!
I don't invest in silver, I hold it for long term dollar insurance. YOU are the one who lost his shirt by thinking silver was an investment. LOL
Dollar insurance? Your gutter is worth half the dollars it was 45 years ago. Add in inflation and your insurance went from dollars to cents. RGDS!
But, I'll play your silly game using your same selective data: Your dollars are worth 314% less than they were 45 years ago. So, tell me again, who's in the gutter and who had insurance? LOL
Those who of us who chose to and continue to invest in the S&P 500. +14,857.13% Certainly not down in the gutter for me. RGDS!
"In highly leveraged bubble markets, things can turn so quickly that paralysis hits investors. And then they wait for a pullback or the Fed to get out at higher prices. But this time might be different, which means many investors will ride the market to the bottom, maybe 75-95% lower."
Don't be one of them.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The Fed is cutting first....this is a cyclical decline and long overduel. My S&P 500 stocks will benefit.
A smart FED would raise interest rates to hammer inflation. Short term pain is always better than the long term pain that zero interest rates and QE gave us.
They did raise rates....so you saying they're smart?
Token rates. Volker tamed inflation (for many years) with 20% interest rates in 1981. That's how you hammer inflation.
The current consensus that FED will soon lower rate will only fuel inflation.
Inflation was 15% then. Today's number is 2.9%
The Bureau of Labors Statics (BLS BS) tells us the average price of food in the United States increased 2.2% in the 12 months ended June. They must be using a time machine to do their shopping.
What greater proof is there that we are being lied to and that YOU should not be relying on and quoting their data?
>
You're right....inflation on my assets is much, much higher than 2.2%.
And seriously, my grocery bill this year is about the same as last year.
Those who of us who chose to and continue to invest in the S&P 500. +14,857.13% Certainly not down in the gutter for me. RGDS!
only because QE and MMT fueled speculation have replaced productivity growth as the source of "wealth".
Does that apply to PM prices as well? After all, they are higher than 25 years ago. In other words, if the Sp500 was at 1200 as it was in 2000, would silver still be at $4?
Do you think itf stocks dropped 95% that silver would be immune from a similar fate?
Do you think if stocks dropped 95% that silver would be immune from a similar fate?
As in 2009, metals along with most assets, would take a hit (not your 95% figure) as everyone liquidates and dashes to cash. And as in 2009 PMs would be among the first to recover as all that cash looks for a new home. Cryptos would likely be one of the best performing short term benefactors.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do you think if stocks dropped 95% that silver would be immune from a similar fate?
As in 2009, metals along with most assets, would take a hit (not your 95% figure) as everyone liquidates and dashes to cash. And as in 2009 PMs would be among the first to recover as all that cash looks for a new home. Cryptos would likely be one of the best performing short term benefactors.
Agreed, except for the bitcon part and it was the bomd market that rallied first. Also the sp500 dropped 57% from peak to trough, while silver dropped 61%.
So, if we expect a big decline in asset prices, then why buy silver now?
Do you think if stocks dropped 95% that silver would be immune from a similar fate?
As in 2009, metals along with most assets, would take a hit (not your 95% figure) as everyone liquidates and dashes to cash. And as in 2009 PMs would be among the first to recover as all that cash looks for a new home. Cryptos would likely be one of the best performing short term benefactors.
Agreed, except for the bitcon part and it was the bomd market that rallied first. Also the sp500 dropped 57% from peak to trough, while silver dropped 61%.
So, if we expect a big decline in asset prices, then why buy silver now?
don't, build cash
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@GoldFinger1969 said:
The market isn't going down 75% or more unless there's a nuclear war. That's just irresponsible click-bait by whoever put it out there.
Expansion of middle east war will cause a large decline in equities. Market crash fuse has been lit, simply awaiting the gasoline. Larger war (offensive by Iran) in mid-east will do it. And you can count on Iran shutting down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
"According to the US Energy Information Administration, more than 40% of global oil exports (around 21 million barrels) transit the Strait daily." What do you think that would do to oil stocks/ETFs and the price of gasoline?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@GoldFinger1969 said:
The market isn't going down 75% or more unless there's a nuclear war. That's just irresponsible click-bait by whoever put it out there.
Expansion of middle east war will cause a large decline in equities. Market crash fuse has been lit, simply awaiting the gasoline. Larger war (offensive by Iran) in mid-east will do it. And you can count on Iran shutting down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
"According to the US Energy Information Administration, more than 40% of global oil exports (around 21 million barrels) transit the Strait daily." What do you think that would do to oil stocks/ETFs and the price of gasoline?
How many crashes have there been? And here we are, never higher.
How many crashes have there been? And here we are, never higher.
Record highs are no protection from a market crash. They result in a bubble that will burst. Crashes don't occur at market lows, they occur when markets are overbought. It's happened before and it will happen again. You really should try to learn these type things.
The question you should be asking is does the stock market drive the money supply or does the money supply fuel the stock market? Over time there has simply been more money to put into stocks. It's not like these corporations have actually increased their real valuation. Their value goes up (in dollars) primarily because it takes more dollar to buy the valuation. Do you really believe stock prices would be where they are if there was not more money chasing them? Do not lose sight that when shares are sold, the resulting dollars are worth less than they were when they were used to purchase the stock. Learn more about "future value of money."
The great spread between SP500 and M2 in 2024 illustrates just how overbought the market is:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@GoldFinger1969 said:
The market isn't going down 75% or more unless there's a nuclear war. That's just irresponsible click-bait by whoever put it out there.
Expansion of middle east war will cause a large decline in equities. Market crash fuse has been lit, simply awaiting the gasoline. Larger war (offensive by Iran) in mid-east will do it. And you can count on Iran shutting down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
"According to the US Energy Information Administration, more than 40% of global oil exports (around 21 million barrels) transit the Strait daily." What do you think that would do to oil stocks/ETFs and the price of gasoline?
The scenario you laid will not result in a market crash or a large decline .
A lot more negative news needs to happen domestically for a crash .
Oil higher perhaps
If there is a pullback anywhere near like we saw 8/6 I’m all in 🤓
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
How many crashes have there been? And here we are, never higher.
Record highs are no protection from a market crash. They result in a bubble that will burst. Crashes don't occur at market lows, they occur when markets are overbought. It's happened before and it will happen again. You really should try to learn these type things.
The question you should be asking is does the stock market drive the money supply or does the money supply fuel the stock market? Over time there has simply been more money to put into stocks. It's not like these corporations have actually increased their real valuation. Their value goes up (in dollars) primarily because it takes more dollar to buy the valuation. Do you really believe stock prices would be where they are if there was not more money chasing them? Do not lose sight that when shares are sold, the resulting dollars are worth less than they were when they were used to purchase the stock. Learn more about "future value of money."
The great spread between SP500 and M2 in 2024 illustrates just how overbought the market is:
You could apply your argument to silver, gold, residential real estate, numismatic coins, art or old rusty cars.
It's all relative.
And yes, technology, innovation, and more efficient productivity does have value.
But, if you believe that the only reason these things have gone up is because of inflated money supply, and that we will always inflate money supply, then why ever sell them? They will go up as long as we keep printing money right? So never sell?
How many crashes have there been? And here we are, never higher.
Record highs are no protection from a market crash. They result in a bubble that will burst. Crashes don't occur at market lows, they occur when markets are overbought. It's happened before and it will happen again. You really should try to learn these type things.
The question you should be asking is does the stock market drive the money supply or does the money supply fuel the stock market? Over time there has simply been more money to put into stocks. It's not like these corporations have actually increased their real valuation. Their value goes up (in dollars) primarily because it takes more dollar to buy the valuation. Do you really believe stock prices would be where they are if there was not more money chasing them? Do not lose sight that when shares are sold, the resulting dollars are worth less than they were when they were used to purchase the stock. Learn more about "future value of money."
The great spread between SP500 and M2 in 2024 illustrates just how overbought the market is:
You could apply your argument to silver, gold, residential real estate, numismatic coins, art or old rusty cars.
It's all relative.
And yes, technology, innovation, and more efficient productivity does have value.
But, if you believe that the only reason these things have gone up is because of inflated money supply, and that we will always inflate money supply, then why ever sell them? They will go up as long as we keep printing money right? So never sell?
As the saying goes; "Buy high and sell higher". RGDS!
The Fed will try to protect the bond market, inflation be damned. Congress is okay with insider trading, so they are fine rubber stamping whatever the Fed does as long as it keeps stocks from crashing. Win-win, right?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Traveling salesman looking for a place to stay for the night, knocks on a farmhouse door. Farmer opens the doors, salesman ask if he can stay there. Farmer says, “Sure, but we don’t have much room, and you’ll have to sleep with my son.”
Salesman: “Excuse me, farmer, I’m in the wrong joke!”
30+ years coin shop experience (ret.) Coins, bullion, currency, scrap & interesting folks. Loved every minute!
@Typekat said:
Traveling salesman looking for a place to stay for the night, knocks on a farmhouse door. Farmer opens the doors, salesman ask if he can stay there. Farmer says, “Sure, but we don’t have much room, and you’ll have to sleep with my son.”
Salesman: “Excuse me, farmer, I’m in the wrong joke!”
?? Not sure of how this joke relates to the context of this thread... but perhaps it is, and went waaay over my head. (I'm a simple guy). Or perhaps it was intended for the joke thread?
Well, glad inflation has been tamed, and good times are here for all. One site gave an estimate of what the seniors can expect for the Social Security benefit increase for next year...
"Based on 2023 inflation figures, the COLA for 2024 increased monthly benefits by 3.2 percent. Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, says continued cooling of inflation could produce a 2025 adjustment of 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent."
"A COLA that matches the 2.9 percent July figure would increase the average Social Security retirement benefit — about $1,870 a month in June 2024 — by $54 a month starting in January 2025."
Not sure that will help much with how much higher prices have gone.
As it relates to the thread title, pretty much all indices are higher than they were on Aug 5. Spot gold just set a ATH today over $2500. What does next week hold?
Comments
Remember I should be able to offer you eggs at the bargain price of 1Doz eggs per 10ozt gutter bars. Add me to your contact list, that may end up being the best price in town. RGDS!
I should be able to offer you eggs at the bargain price of 1Doz eggs per 10ozt gutter bars.
That sounds about like one of your typical buy offers. Thanks, but no thanks.
I knew it would happen.
But yet.... you and some others seem to be compelled to tell US how and what to think; and to take potshots at those who do express their own opinions. I dunno... I've done ok throughout the years with some advice from 'experts'.... but more on instincts and common sense. Perhaps if I let the 'experts' handle my investments, I could have done better; or perhaps I would have ended up like customers of the recent gold selling and storage company mentioned in the forum.... ......with the customers asking 'where's my gold? '
But I am not that sophisticated and much prefer the simple approach.
Most of the analysts and "experts" you anti-dollar folks cite are just looking for clicks. They don't work for any established firm....they don't manage $$$....they don't put out their peformance over time. Which means they are like a couch potato saying he knows what the guy on the TV is doing wrong when he throws a bad pass or can't hit a 98-MPH fastball.
If you REALLY want to learn about the Dollar, reserve currency status, Saudi Arabia and other de-dollarization myths....read this article (might need to subscribe or get a print BARRON'S from 2 weeks ago):
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dollar-strong-petrodollar-reserve-currency-0909db79
Yep, you have to be a subscriber to see the article at that websie, but found it at another website for those interested:
https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-dollar-s-supercycle-is-over-where-it-s-headed/ar-BB1qAVY0
You think Barrons editors don’t have a vested interest in pumping their own subscriptions (clicks)?
Arthur Laffer thinks the dollar is in trouble. Is he an expert? Ya think?
Stop being brainwashed, GF. Your clients will thank you.
I knew it would happen.
Being wary of financial advisors and money managers and Fed manipulations..... does not necessarily translate into "anti-dollar folks".
Good luck to ya!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
But it may come down to that. Are you prepared?
Heck, eggs could unobtainable at any price if the collapse and bail-ins you predict come to fruition.
Have you truly thought about the consequences of your dire warnings? Have you thought those consequences are so severe that they won't happen? Have you considered your preparedness may just be a false sense of security?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Maybe some of us just give back what we receive?
Or maybe some of us just want to propose questions to stimulate critical thinking--another novel idea?
These threads would just rot in hell if not for the attempts to break some out of their echo chamber prison.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I don't pay a subscription fee to read mainstream media but your link did provide a free sentence:
"The dollar’s long-anticipated downturn has begun, but don’t confuse it with the talk of dedollarization."
Your author is misguided. The dollar downturn is partially because of world wide de-dollarization. US economic policy at home accounts for the remaining downturn in the dollar. This all of course is based on the definition of "dollar downturn." I think most would agree that it is defined by a decline in the dollar's purchasing power.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Ignore if you want, but I would believe either of them before listening to a Barrons editor.
Interview with Arthur Laffer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnvXRxejwVI&pp=ygUXYXJ0aHVyIGxhZmZlciBpbnRlcnZpZXc%3D
Interview with Ed Dowd (no lightweight either):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdom1Of0FMY
I knew it would happen.
I watched...mostly...Laffer thinks El Salvador will be the "shining City on the hill". ROFL!!
A majority of his diatribe was on bitcon. Anybody ever even seen one? There is a whole new level of gullibility out there. A whole new level. You guys rail against the billionaires and megawealthy, but are willing to offer your compliance to a "virtual" data entry set controlled by the billionaires and megawealthy.
We are weak...so weak... if this is the prevailing thought. You aint prepared.
BTW---Wasnt Laffer on Reagans advisory team (and Trumps). Reagan started the massive deficit spending. National debt was $950 billion when Reagan took office and $2.6 Trillion when he left--a 3 fold increase. Trump started at $20 trillion and $28 trillion when he left. So under Laffer's advise the G added $10 trillion, or nearly 1/3 of the debt. And you follow this guy? And Trump gave him the Medal of Freedom....seems he put us all in dcars "servitude".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The difference is: their names and performance are out there 52 times a year. Their reputations -- and jobs -- are on the line being judged by the smartest minds in finance.
I've followed and read AL for over 40 years. He is NOT an expert on the dollar but I respect his views. He didn't say if the dollar is in trouble from cyclical or secular forces. It's the former, not the latter.
Being informed is not brainwashed. The people you guys read are like the gold bugs of the 1970's who were never right again.
Bill Parcells said "You are what your records says it is." Ditto for those putting their money where their mouths are.
Marc Chandler is a currency analyst and trader with 45 years experience. He was there when exchange rates were fixed to floating.
The Fed is cutting first....this is a cyclical decline and long overduel. My S&P 500 stocks will benefit.
The only thing I know about Art Laffer is this exchange he had with Peter Schiff in 2006.
Art Laffer's sentiments in the video remind me of posts by @cohodk , @blitzdude , and @GoldFinger1969 .
But it was Schiff who turned out to be spot-on correct and Laffer was entirely wrong (see the first 2-1/2 minutes):
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Stocks have peaked
"We are now at a point when risk is at its maximum. That is the time to get out of the bubble assets of stocks, bonds, property, and the US dollar." - Egon von Greyerz
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A smart FED would raise interest rates to hammer inflation. Short term pain is always better than the long term pain that zero interest rates and QE gave us.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Dream on with your king world magic pixie dust. You and Jim are sitting on pounds of gutter worth half its non-inflation-adjusted 1980 value. Stocks have done absolutely nothing but BOOM! Your gutter was a TERRIBLE investment. Hopefully you at least picked up some "Metal of Kings". THKS!
I don't invest in silver, I hold it for long term dollar insurance. YOU are the one who lost his shirt by thinking silver was an investment. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Dollar insurance? Your gutter is worth half the dollars it was 45 years ago. Add in inflation and your insurance went from dollars to cents. RGDS!
Your choice of using "45 years ago" with silver at an all time high of $50, is interesting. Is that when you bought and why you are so intimidated by silver. Only a fool would have bought at such a high.
But, I'll play your silly game using your same selective data: Your dollars are worth 314% less than they were 45 years ago. So, tell me again, who's in the gutter and who had insurance? LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
They did raise rates....so you saying they're smart?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Token rates. Volker tamed inflation (for many years) with 20% interest rates in 1981. That's how you hammer inflation.
The current consensus that FED will soon lower rate will only fuel inflation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
.> @derryb said:
Inflation was 15% then. Today's number is 2.9% and inflation average over 4% from 1983 to 1990. Was that tamed?
Yes, inflation will probably run at rate higher than in the 2010's. It was frequently 3-4% during 1990 to 2005.
I know you would love to see 20% so you can lock in those 30 yr t-bonds.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Bureau of Labors Statics (BLS BS) tells us the average price of food in the United States increased 2.2% in the 12 months ended June. They must be using a time machine to do their shopping.
What greater proof is there that we are being lied to and that YOU should not be relying on and quoting their data?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I completely disagree. There are 3 things driving the stock market:
1. Earnings - up 11% in Q3 after also being up in Q2
2. Interest Rates - expecting a cut in Sept
3. The election - this is the wildcard at the moment. Without getting political, one drives the market to all-time highs, the other has the potential to hurt the markets. I think #3 encompasses global tensions uncertainty which many like to list as a fourth driver.
I personally am not a strong believer in #2. What the Fed does to me doesn't matter if spending is not lowered. Also, historically a cut in rates happens because of bad economic conditions - which ends up effecting #1.
fully respect your disagreement and argument and the way it was presented
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Those who of us who chose to and continue to invest in the S&P 500. +14,857.13% Certainly not down in the gutter for me. RGDS!
only because QE and MMT fueled speculation have replaced productivity growth as the source of "wealth".
This won't end (soon) well.
"In highly leveraged bubble markets, things can turn so quickly that paralysis hits investors. And then they wait for a pullback or the Fed to get out at higher prices. But this time might be different, which means many investors will ride the market to the bottom, maybe 75-95% lower."
Don't be one of them.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
>
You're right....inflation on my assets is much, much higher than 2.2%.
And seriously, my grocery bill this year is about the same as last year.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Does that apply to PM prices as well? After all, they are higher than 25 years ago. In other words, if the Sp500 was at 1200 as it was in 2000, would silver still be at $4?
Do you think itf stocks dropped 95% that silver would be immune from a similar fate?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As in 2009, metals along with most assets, would take a hit (not your 95% figure) as everyone liquidates and dashes to cash. And as in 2009 PMs would be among the first to recover as all that cash looks for a new home. Cryptos would likely be one of the best performing short term benefactors.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Agreed, except for the bitcon part and it was the bomd market that rallied first. Also the sp500 dropped 57% from peak to trough, while silver dropped 61%.
So, if we expect a big decline in asset prices, then why buy silver now?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
don't, build cash
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I don't see him talking about systemic risk to the banking sector.
What did he do AFTER 2008-09 ? Anybody can catch lighting in a bottle once.
The market isn't going down 75% or more unless there's a nuclear war. That's just irresponsible click-bait by whoever put it out there.
Expansion of middle east war will cause a large decline in equities. Market crash fuse has been lit, simply awaiting the gasoline. Larger war (offensive by Iran) in mid-east will do it. And you can count on Iran shutting down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
"According to the US Energy Information Administration, more than 40% of global oil exports (around 21 million barrels) transit the Strait daily." What do you think that would do to oil stocks/ETFs and the price of gasoline?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
How many crashes have there been? And here we are, never higher.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Record highs are no protection from a market crash. They result in a bubble that will burst. Crashes don't occur at market lows, they occur when markets are overbought. It's happened before and it will happen again. You really should try to learn these type things.
The question you should be asking is does the stock market drive the money supply or does the money supply fuel the stock market? Over time there has simply been more money to put into stocks. It's not like these corporations have actually increased their real valuation. Their value goes up (in dollars) primarily because it takes more dollar to buy the valuation. Do you really believe stock prices would be where they are if there was not more money chasing them? Do not lose sight that when shares are sold, the resulting dollars are worth less than they were when they were used to purchase the stock. Learn more about "future value of money."
The great spread between SP500 and M2 in 2024 illustrates just how overbought the market is:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The scenario you laid will not result in a market crash or a large decline .
A lot more negative news needs to happen domestically for a crash .
Oil higher perhaps
If there is a pullback anywhere near like we saw 8/6 I’m all in 🤓
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
You could apply your argument to silver, gold, residential real estate, numismatic coins, art or old rusty cars.
It's all relative.
And yes, technology, innovation, and more efficient productivity does have value.
But, if you believe that the only reason these things have gone up is because of inflated money supply, and that we will always inflate money supply, then why ever sell them? They will go up as long as we keep printing money right? So never sell?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As the saying goes; "Buy high and sell higher". RGDS!
The Fed will try to protect the bond market, inflation be damned. Congress is okay with insider trading, so they are fine rubber stamping whatever the Fed does as long as it keeps stocks from crashing. Win-win, right?
I knew it would happen.
Traveling salesman looking for a place to stay for the night, knocks on a farmhouse door. Farmer opens the doors, salesman ask if he can stay there. Farmer says, “Sure, but we don’t have much room, and you’ll have to sleep with my son.”
Salesman: “Excuse me, farmer, I’m in the wrong joke!”
30+ years coin shop experience (ret.) Coins, bullion, currency, scrap & interesting folks. Loved every minute!
?? Not sure of how this joke relates to the context of this thread... but perhaps it is, and went waaay over my head. (I'm a simple guy). Or perhaps it was intended for the joke thread?
Well, glad inflation has been tamed, and good times are here for all. One site gave an estimate of what the seniors can expect for the Social Security benefit increase for next year...
"Based on 2023 inflation figures, the COLA for 2024 increased monthly benefits by 3.2 percent. Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, says continued cooling of inflation could produce a 2025 adjustment of 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent."
"A COLA that matches the 2.9 percent July figure would increase the average Social Security retirement benefit — about $1,870 a month in June 2024 — by $54 a month starting in January 2025."
Not sure that will help much with how much higher prices have gone.
As it relates to the thread title, pretty much all indices are higher than they were on Aug 5. Spot gold just set a ATH today over $2500. What does next week hold?