2024 Uncirculated Morgan & Peace Dollar price increase to $91!
MASSU2
Posts: 260 ✭✭✭✭
Just got the email form the US Mint that the 2024 Morgan's and Peace dollars are going up to $91! A $15 jump from 2023's prices. This will undoubtedly result in a lot of cancellations.
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I was on the fence already, when I received this email today it made my decision easy to go in and cancel all 5 subscriptions. Just saved me at least $500. (all 5 coins)
Looks like we didn't know when we had it good! 😀
The question now is whether this will kill enough demand to turn these into winners? Thoughts?
I was a fan at $76, because that was consistent with what other mints charge for similar products, notwithstanding the much higher mintages for US Mint products. $91 does seem like a bit of money grab, and I'm not sure there will be value.
Anyone who has been preselling 70s is not going to be happy. $15 on $76 is 20%, and that's crazy when the coins were already 2.5x spot. Needing to get at least 3x spot is a little piggy. At this price there really is no reason to subscribe, because there will be plenty to go around.
When I first started I assumed I would continue with the series, but with the prices now, I'm stepping back. I only have the Peace Proof on subscription, but I may even cancel that.
We had it good in 2021, not only was the price worth it to resell but it was more fun getting the coins without a subscription.
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
Wow! Yes, inflation is out of control but man oh man, did the Mint’s union sign a new contract or something? This is wacko obscene and requires a letter to my very receptive congressman to find out wtf is going on down there? I only planned on getting the RPs and I can’t imagine what those will cost. The Flowing Hair gold will probably require a second mortgage.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Could have let the subs go at the old price to reward long time customers. Then raise it going forward. But doing it 2 days before the release is a slap in the face.
If I read the email correctly, all silver products are going up except for commems?
They must use different silver in commemoratives lol and I'm sure when silver price goes down they'll drop all the prices again right? To raise prices just a few days before the release is offensive silver has been up for months.
$91 a coin? Just got email. Just cancelled subscription. I’m (was) a hobbyist. Good lord.
They will probably get a lot of subscription returns. Certainly not everyone read the email.
No, not more than temporarily from speculation, maybe. I doubt any drop off in demand will be large enough if the planned mintage is 275K or 300K which is what I have read. Too common just like the most common circulating Morgan and Peace dollars.
Unlike the vast majority of modern US Mint NCLT, I do believe these have longer term collector appeal to hold value better, but the supply is too high for the quality for any substantial appreciation. I hold the same opinion for practically all of the different finish ASE.
TBD. They have never before tried to get $91 for a collector coin with 0.86 oz of silver and a published mintage of 275K. If they only sell ~150K, which is entirely plausible, they could see a bump from $91 in the secondary market.
They sold 200K 2021 Peace Dollars. What do those go for today?
The public has to have a stopping point on buying 1oz. silver Mint products.
I believe $91 for an Unc Silver $1 just may be that point.
I know I will not be buying any Mint products until sanity reigns supreme.
I hear you, but it's a real prisoner's dilemma. How will you feel if a ton of people follow you, and they end up selling 100K and then cutting off sales?
Because the bottom line is going to be that a lot of people are going to feel exactly like you do and stay away. They will do nothing in the secondary market as long as a lot of them remain unsold, hanging over the market.
And then one day, out of nowhere, they will be pulled. At that point, depending on how many have been sold and where spot silver is trading, these will either be dogs or home runs. If you will be okay either way, on principle, because 3x+ spot is obnoxious, stay away.
Otherwise, while it is obnoxious, and a large percentage increase, it's only $15, and just might end up paying off. I'm not happy, and haven't made a final decision yet, but I am seriously considering keeping my subscriptions, and only reassessing next year after seeing how these do, given they will surely not be selling 275K of them.
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2021 was the 100th anniversary and first in the new series. Even if they only sell 100k I doubt the 2024s will be considered a"key date".
it's not an ounce of silver
Even if people cut their orders and the mintage is much lower, what happens in 2025 when the mint raises prices again? A new lower mintage again? What if this keeps happening for years until the program is discontinued? You may have the key dates for the series but if it sell at half issue, does it really matter. Just some of the things I think about with all these modern programs the mint has going.
My Jefferson Registry:
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/alltimeset/191115
One has to wonder if some of the posters on this thread are being paid by the mint to pump up the products. I for one can see it, just wondering if anybody else does............
They can pump all they want, I'm not interested in paying $91 for a silver eagle
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
All the more reason not to buy this product @ $91.
that's called race to the bottom. we're in it now
SPECIFICATIONS
Denomination: $1
Finish: Uncirculated
Composition: 99.9% silver
Silver Weight: 0.859 troy oz.
Diameter: 1.500 inches (38.10 mm)
Edge: Reeded
Mint and Mint Mark: Philadelphia – No Mint Mark
Privy Mark: None
$105.94 per troy
I have been purchasing two of each Morgan & Peace dollar released in 2021 & 2023 but dropped my sub to one coin each except the reverse proof set.
"Bongo hurtles along the rain soaked highway of life on underinflated bald retread tires."
~Wayne
I think any collector that wants, will get them. There shouldn’t be a quick sellout The fear of missing out or the I’m going to do a quick flip I’d not going to be there.
Canceled all of mine 5 ea for the whole series a couple days ago. Even before the price gouge.
I think they will sell enough to go around. Might actually get a ball park figure on actual collector needs / wants
Martin
$91. Lol.
fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts
Decorate the edge of the pool with them. At that price
😀
Martin
I have to say, my RPs from last year looked very nice and the uncirculated Peace Dollar was outstanding. But I'm not sure I need to keep a date set going.
Sure. Because it's not a popular design, and we wouldn't be climbing over each other, jockeying for position to get them at $100 a pop if the announced mintage was 100K, with a first day limit of one per household. Right?
It's not about being a "key date." It's just about demand exceeding supply. The great irony of demand for modern mint products is that no one wants things that are easy to get, with unlimited supply, basically at any price, while demand increases exponentially as supply is limited. Again at any price. This is why ASEs with a 30K mintage sell for more than $1,000, while people will have no interest in the next burnished ASE, with an unlimited mintage, at $91.
There will be little demand for 275K of these at $91. And THAT just might create a sleeper when sales end and final mintages are released. Regardless of what happens to mintages, or the program itself, in the future.
As long as the mint keeps raising prices and minting different varieties, it only makes it harder for low budget collectors to continue a series. 2021 prices was the year I decided to discontinue most of my series runs. I canceled all my subs that year.
My Original Song Written to my late wife-"Plus other original music by me"
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Certainly not me. I'm not pumping anything, and am VERY disappointed in the greed that drove this move. I was just trying to drive a conversation.
If no one buys these, and final mintages are half of the announced maximum, it wouldn't be the first time a loser turned into a winner. I'm not interested in buying 0.86 oz of silver for $91 either. But I will buy as many $250 coins for $91 as I can get my hands on, no matter how much silver they contain.
And I think everyone would agree that there is a mintage number at which any modern Mint product would be worth 3x+ issue price on the secondary market. Depending, of course, on the issue price. The $64,000 question is what is that number for this product, and will it get there as the Mint tries to sell 275K at $91 each?
And, is it worth a $91 gamble to find out? Or, conversely, will everyone sleep well, and resist playing woulda, coulda, shoulda, if these end up as winners at $91 and they didn't participate, because they never have, and never will, pay a large multiple over bullion for a modern coin, regardless of how low its mintage is?
Nope. I am/was a fan, but they are never going to sell 275K, times 2, at $91 each. Not even close. And that's the potential play, if the mintage ends up being really low.
It might be worth canceling subscriptions and then waiting to see what early sales look like, with lower sales making them more attractive. Because they might or might not sell enough to go around, but they are going to sell a helluva lot less of them than they sold last year at $76, while the announced mintage is exactly the same.
These will always suck if they sell more than 200K, at least until silver goes above $50 an ounce and stays there. But they will be an interesting play at 3x spot if they sell less than 150K, just given how sustainably popular the designs have been for over 100 years and counting.
Pre-ordered the Morgan and Peace on 6/12/24 PCGS MS70 FDOI Morgan and Peace labels from cash-4-coins on E-bay for $299. Now selling for $330. Pinehurst wants $299 for MS69, $339 for MS70.
I cancelled before the increase, and will no longer touch this series. I won't buy them later, I'm just done with the series, I don't see the value in them beyond the first two years. I'm a collector not a flipper, my coin purchases are not to turn a profit.
They can't offer that type of discount - the law requires them to recover their costs.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Cancelled all my mint subscriptions except the reverse proofs and not sure about them at this point. No way for me to justify more than $100/ounce for a common silver dollar.
And asking more than $3,200/ounce for common modern gold buffalo or eagle proofs has also become unrealistic. You can get real nice lower pop, high grade, classic gold and silver coins that are much more interesting and collectable.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I'd have to look-up the 2021 Peace dollar. The novelty of both will also decline once both series have been produced for multiple years.
There is a difference between "some appreciation" and "meaningful appreciation". I'll grant you that "some" is feasible, if for no other reason than a much higher future spot price.
In your example, 150,000 isn't a low mintage, especially for a recurring series. The difference in your number or the planned mintage versus the availability of the most common circulating Morgan dollars (1MM+ in UNC) isn't meaningful either, because both will have thousands available for sale any day of the week.
I see no reason to believe that any of these modern Morgan dollars will appreciate proportionately a lot more than the classics. It's not always the same buyers but the classic definitely has a higher preference.
I agree
I see two primary buyers who prefer it, the financial speculator + those preferring liquidity and marketability. Otherwise, there are far more interesting coins available for the same money. That's how the vast majority of collectors view NCLT.
Just changed most of my subscriptions to zero. I always say that you vote with your wallet. I'm sure Mint is keeping track of how many subs were cancelled after the e-mail came out. They can now send me a survey to see why I did it...
Last few years Mint continued to sell old products, even 2 to 3 years stale. I assume they mint the entire run, package it and put them aside. Mintages eventually get drawn down a bit due to quality control returns.
I was surprised to see silver 5 Ouncer's inventory got flushed. I looked like 6 months ago; the remainders were all at $330 a pop.
Check out these two 2023 issues.
Struck in the more valuable white metal & their mintages & no household limits:
4 Metals spot at this moment in time:
I will wait till Fall to decide to cancel 3 Proof Morgans, 7 Proof Peace and 5 Reverse 2 coin Proof sets.
My mixed roll of 20.
Life is too short...and these are classic designs...so I still plan to order 1 of each (as I also pay for a $10,000 funeral in the family)...
Because I don't think I can take it with me either...and sometimes it's just as simple as that!
True. They are meeting a market, at market prices. Not trying to cater to low budget collectors while creating arbitrage opportunities for flippers.
I think they might have a bit too far by imposing a $15 price increase on a $76 item containing less than $30 worth of silver, but time will tell. As I said before, if the high prices leads to significantly lower sales, that will in turn serve to increase after market values, so everything might come out in the wash. Albeit at the expense of low budget collectors finding themselves priced out.
To be fair, it's not two days. It's a week, and anyone unhappy has time to cancel. If you look at their release calendar, they have lots of releases spread pretty evenly throughout the year. So there is literally no time they could do a price increase and not have it be within a week or two of a silver coin product release.
These actions over the last few years by the mint has caused me to change to focus mostly on classic coins and liquidate my modern coins. Except for kennedy halves. I like them too much.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
I'd hold off on the victory lap for the time being. The $30 price increase is just them trying to maintain their margins, since the price for the pair from the Mint just went up by, coincidentally, $30.
I doubt people who don't want to pay the Mint $91 will be willing to pay $165 or $170 for slabs. If true, prices will come back down.
With all due respect, they can offer any kind of discount they want, and there is no way in hell they need to charge $91 each for 275,000 of these to recover their costs. They are being pigs because they think the market will bear it.
I happen to think they will be disappointed. Which might just end up supporting secondary market values in the future, but is going to do nothing for their bottom line, if their 20% price increase results in a 40% reduction in sales.
I see this having a lower mintage at year end. As long as the mint keeps selling old stock we won't really know unless it is a sell-out. 3 years from now they will suddenly find 2024 Uncs and sell them. I am a collector and not looking to flip, but this still bothers me.
$91.00 from the mint.
These coins are toast. Only the hard core addicts will be buying these.
I see them minting the max and letting them languish on the website through 2025.
Do you think if silver loses 20% of its value they will drop the price? Fat chance! In my book it’s financial suicide!
I bet in a couple years you’ll get these on eBay for spot plus five or ten bucks.
I'm not a fan of modern mint products, but could this be the key date with the negative feedback being presented here and potential melting of unpurchased product?
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Someone more negative than I am.
I assume you're exaggerating, but the only way the premium will collapse that far is if it concurrently does for other comparable NCLT and common classic crown sized coins (including common Morgan and Peace dollars).
The only way I see this is with a lot of forced selling, which will almost certainly mean the economy is much worse.
Only under a very liberal definition of "key date".
By my definition, there are very few "key dates" in all of modern US NCLT, like the 1995-W and 2019-S ERP ASE.
Low mintage doesn't equal key date if the difference isn't that proportionately large. It's also not meaningful if there are numerous others in the series with "low" mintages. That's what has consistently happened in numerous NCLT series (commemoratives especially) where today's lowest mintage "key date" is super ceded by a future even less preferred release.
The mintage is low, but these aren't circulating coins, the coins aren't even close to scarce for the quality, and the survival rates "as struck" will approach 100% for as long as it matters to anyone reading this thread.
Silver looks to be on the verge of "breaking out". If it does, then next year's list price will be higher than this year's. If silver enters an intermediate or longer bull market, it's entirely possible that future mintages will decline persistently as the presumably moderate budget collector base is increasingly priced out.
Numerous "ifs" in my post but what I'm describing appears consistent with the NCLT market.