Someone got a great deal 1764 Guatemala 4 reales PCGS XF-40 Stacks today

TheGoonies1985

Sold 3360$ (includes premium) last one in lesser grade sold for 6300$. Yonaka states it as a rarity 4 but seems to be a rarity 3 with at least 2 examples known.

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-19Q6TW/guatemala-4-reales-1764-g-p-guatemala-mint-charles-iii-pcgs-ef-40

I hope someone here was able to pick up this great rarity for their collection. Congrats to the new owner for landing such a coin at an amazing rarity at a low price.

TheGoonies1985

Lot Description
GUATEMALA. 4 Reales, 1764-G P. Guatemala Mint. Charles III. PCGS EF-40.

KM-26; Cal-795. Very elusive in this nice preservation, this 4 Reales is the sole finest graded specimen yet certified by PCGS. As such, it stands as a tremendous representative of the always popular and elusive Pillar series from Guatemala. Considered the RAREST date from the series, 1764's are consistently demanded, with examples fetching strong prices when infrequently offered. Take our most recent offering of this date, Lot 34110 in the Summer 2022 Global Showcase Auction as part of the Pat Johnson Collection, where a VF-25 Graded example reached a final sale price of $6,300 including the buyer's premium. Given this example's status as a piece a cut above that one, we expect a strong demand for this example.

Estimate: $4,000 - $6,000.

ELuis

I have seen only four over the years raw but all with details, the best one cleaned and sold for 1.3k, the other with a salt water damage on the edge, another fixed, the other one with some bad scratches or graffiti. Even the minor ones show up but with details too.

TheGoonies1985

@ELuis said:
I have seen only four over the years raw but all with details, the best one cleaned and sold for 1.3k, the other with a salt water damage on the edge, another fixed, the other one with some bad scratches or graffiti. Even the minor ones show up but with details too.

Then it would be a Rarity 1 not a rarity 4.

ELuis

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@ELuis said:
I have seen only four over the years raw but all with details, the best one cleaned and sold for 1.3k, the other with a salt water damage on the edge, another fixed, the other one with some bad scratches or graffiti. Even the minor ones show up but with details too.

Then it would be a Rarity 1 not a rarity 4.

I must said the 4R I saw were from other years, not the 1764.

TheGoonies1985

@ELuis said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@ELuis said:
I have seen only four over the years raw but all with details, the best one cleaned and sold for 1.3k, the other with a salt water damage on the edge, another fixed, the other one with some bad scratches or graffiti. Even the minor ones show up but with details too.

Then it would be a Rarity 1 not a rarity 4.

I must said the 4R I saw were from other years, not the 1764.

Ah OK I thought you meant all 1764's.

Boosibri

I bought the first 1764 for $6300. Then the 1763 sold in the next sale for even more and I was the under bidder.

The market is so thin and I sold for this reason…

MrEureka

I'm not so sure it was a great deal. The tooling in the vicinity of UNUM bothers me a lot.

MrEureka

The $6300 coin was far more wholesome.

WCC

@Boosibri said:
I bought the first 1764 for $6300. Then the 1763 sold in the next sale for even more and I was the under bidder.

The market is so thin and I sold for this reason…

An example where one buyer can buy all the better material leaving the "dreck" for everyone else.

MrEureka

@WCC said:

@Boosibri said:
I bought the first 1764 for $6300. Then the 1763 sold in the next sale for even more and I was the under bidder.

The market is so thin and I sold for this reason…

An example where one buyer can buy all the better material leaving the "dreck" for everyone else.

Isn't that a good thing? I mean, you can be the one buyer, right? Which is usually a winning strategy in the long run, but much less promising if you're not planning to hold for very long.

TheGoonies1985

@MrEureka said:
I'm not so sure it was a great deal. The tooling in the vicinity of UNUM bothers me a lot.

Did not see that thanks for pointing it out.

dfrosty301

Man such a coin would go great with a 1743 4 reales I recently got certified by NGC.

SimonW

I like the look of this one a lot, but certainly the tooling held the price back a lot. Unfortunate.

WCC

@MrEureka said:

@WCC said:

@Boosibri said:
I bought the first 1764 for $6300. Then the 1763 sold in the next sale for even more and I was the under bidder.

The market is so thin and I sold for this reason…

An example where one buyer can buy all the better material leaving the "dreck" for everyone else.

Isn't that a good thing? I mean, you can be the one buyer, right? Which is usually a winning strategy in the long run, but much less promising if you're not planning to hold for very long.

Financially, I infer (not claim to actually know) that excessive scarcity can equally depress prices by discouraging collectors from even attempting to buy it. This assumption is behind my concurrent assumption that this type of world coinage will likely not financially perform as well as many US buyers expect.

(Somewhat of an) exception is coins with a (very) high collector preference.

Currently, I own 64 Lima pillars in an NGC or PCGS holder, with 25 in an MS grade and 10 more as an AU-55 or AU-58. These aren't nearly as scarce as "G" mint, but if you are correct, guess these will do better than I think.

TheGoonies1985

I would think Mexico would the 1st coins to increase in value over time versus say Peru or Guatemala those are very specific to certain collectors it would seem not many of us actually collect them. I enjoy them lot but how many of us are out there that do? The USA will soon be 25% Latino I heard the other day and I would assume many of people if they ever got into collecting Latin American coinage would start with Mexico again I could be wrong I am just going by population per country. I would think Brazil one day could also become more popular considering its population size.

But on the other hand you would not need many new Latin American collectors to make prices increase most coins are not common at all.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:
I would think Mexico would the 1st coins to increase in value over time versus say Peru or Guatemala those are very specific to certain collectors it would seem not many of us actually collect them. I enjoy them lot but how many of us are out there that do? The USA will soon be 25% Latino I heard the other day and I would assume many of people if they ever got into collecting Latin American coinage would start with Mexico again I could be wrong I am just going by population per country. I would think Brazil one day could also become more popular considering its population size.

Agree with your general sentiments.

@PillarDollarCollector said:

But on the other hand you would not need many new Latin American collectors to make prices increase most coins are not common at all.

Increase, sure. Question is, how much?

That's where I believe excessive scarcity applies. Look at how common practically all US early federal coins are relatively. But the collector base is much larger partly due to type set and die variety collecting.

Type set collecting seems to be more of a US practice looking at what shows up in foreign auctions for this coinage. Despite Yonaka's books, I don't think die variety collecting will gain much traction. The series are too difficult to complete as a generic date. It's somewhat widely practiced with US early federal coinage because the designs have a high preference, but the coins aren't really hard to buy otherwise.

TheGoonies1985

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
I would think Mexico would the 1st coins to increase in value over time versus say Peru or Guatemala those are very specific to certain collectors it would seem not many of us actually collect them. I enjoy them lot but how many of us are out there that do? The USA will soon be 25% Latino I heard the other day and I would assume many of people if they ever got into collecting Latin American coinage would start with Mexico again I could be wrong I am just going by population per country. I would think Brazil one day could also become more popular considering its population size.

Agree with your general sentiments.

@PillarDollarCollector said:

But on the other hand you would not need many new Latin American collectors to make prices increase most coins are not common at all.

Increase, sure. Question is, how much?

That's where I believe excessive scarcity applies. Look at how common practically all US early federal coins are relatively. But the collector base is much larger partly due to type set and die variety collecting.

Type set collecting seems to be more of a US practice looking at what shows up in foreign auctions for this coinage. Despite Yonaka's books, I don't think die variety collecting will gain much traction. The series are too difficult to complete as a generic date. It's somewhat widely practiced with US early federal coinage because the designs have a high preference, but the coins aren't really hard to buy otherwise.

I think new collectors may attempt certain series simply not knowing what they are getting themselves into rarity wise. And it would only take a few 10-20 that are very serious about collecting them to see rises in value. Imagine if one day if even say 200+ new collectors join in collecting Latin American coins that would have a huge impact. 200 does not seem like a lot for such a massive Latin American population and with the US nearing 25% of US Latin Americans it could one day be possible. I hope not to soon I need to be able to continue to enjoy what I collect.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
I would think Mexico would the 1st coins to increase in value over time versus say Peru or Guatemala those are very specific to certain collectors it would seem not many of us actually collect them. I enjoy them lot but how many of us are out there that do? The USA will soon be 25% Latino I heard the other day and I would assume many of people if they ever got into collecting Latin American coinage would start with Mexico again I could be wrong I am just going by population per country. I would think Brazil one day could also become more popular considering its population size.

Agree with your general sentiments.

@PillarDollarCollector said:

But on the other hand you would not need many new Latin American collectors to make prices increase most coins are not common at all.

Increase, sure. Question is, how much?

That's where I believe excessive scarcity applies. Look at how common practically all US early federal coins are relatively. But the collector base is much larger partly due to type set and die variety collecting.

Type set collecting seems to be more of a US practice looking at what shows up in foreign auctions for this coinage. Despite Yonaka's books, I don't think die variety collecting will gain much traction. The series are too difficult to complete as a generic date. It's somewhat widely practiced with US early federal coinage because the designs have a high preference, but the coins aren't really hard to buy otherwise.

I think new collectors may attempt certain series simply not knowing what they are getting themselves into rarity wise. And it would only take a few 10-20 that are very serious about collecting them to see rises in value. Imagine if one day if even say 200+ new collectors join in collecting Latin American coins that would have a huge impact. 200 does not seem like a lot for such a massive Latin American population and with the US nearing 25% of US Latin Americans it could one day be possible. I hope not to soon I need to be able to continue to enjoy what I collect.

It won't even take 10-20 for any other mint than maybe Mexico and even then, maybe only the 8R. (Certainly not the 4R.)

I presume the supply is somewhat higher than what any of us sees, but I doubt 10-20 can replicate my collection and it's not even close to complete. For the "G" minors. I'm not sure it's possible to complete any of the denominations in any decent quality.

If it happens, it's more likely to be type set collectors.

TheGoonies1985

Yeah 8 reales would be the 1st to be collected is my guess as well. But then some people like challenges there comes in the lower denominations. 1732 milled is the only really ''rare'' 8 reales but there are many in the Cap & Ray series.