I hate it when the value of key & semi- key date coins have fallen....
mikee999
Posts: 619 ✭✭✭✭✭
These are the coins I have that have gone down in value since acquired them early 2000s:
AU 50-58
16-D, 21-P, D Mercs ( Ihave probably 10 of these); although a veteran well respected forum member "warned" me about the 16-D I bought from him)
16 SLQ
On the other hand I've been very happy with the performance of
CC Morgans
Walkers
What key, semi- key coins you own that have disappointed you value wise?
2
Comments
I think filling holes in albums will die completely in the next ten years because all the older collectors will be dead. Low grade key coins will suffer. We will know this is true if the prices of those coins continue a zig-zag up and down drop. I'm not being a snob when I ask "who wants a VG 16-D when the money that costs can buy more attractive stuff and even some gold?"
I have been noticing the same thing over past few years, low grade key dates coming down, as said, you just dont see numerous people filling albums like you used too at shows etc. There either chasing a nice example, bullion related issues, cc's , gold or nicer type.
When I was younger at shows, that is all youd see is album set fillers.
Also, lots of psuedo keys as they call em have come out over the years from the older collectors dying off.
So you're the one who "warned" me about the 16-D
Based on population reports provided by the grading services, collectors are beginning to realize the "old keys" based on mintages are actually more available than some of the undervalued high mintage date/mintmark coins.
I have noticed some scarce and rare Morgan VAM's have fallen a bit in price in circulated grades.
It has been years and maybe it's a generation of collectors aging out?
Maybe consolidate a few winners and losers and upgrade?
Haven't the key dates been on a 30 year bull run?
Guess it depends on definition of key and semi key.
I would consider it a buying opportunity.
They will still be the key dates.
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I agree that it is at least possible. If the market breaks from album or registry obsession, those common key date coins will crash. I don't pretend to know when that might happen, however. Collectors remain somewhat OCD and traditional.
Prices go up and they do go down, well at least in hobbies. The numismatic hobby continues to be a niche market, more or less trending down in collectors throughout most of my lifetime. That will add to the impact. I do not own any real key dates, the 1938-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar (PCGS MS66) being the closest. If you purchase coins for investment and to make money, they behave not that much differently than any other investment, they go up, and they go down.
I have never had the pleasure of owning a coin that was considered THE key date. 1878-S Seated Half, 1916 Std. Qtr. etc. I have no idea what is going on with that segment of the market.
I do not buy coins for investment so I may be a poor reference source here. I have had to sell several hundred coins over the decades and my results go like this. Coins that are considered very common, (You could buy 5 of them right now), tend to be very stable and you are lucky to get 80% back. Less common dates, (may take you a month to find a nice coin) will hold their value and on a lucky auction day you might make a 10% profit. Coins that take a long time to locate. Coins that only appear once or twice a year tend to be highly sought after so it is very hard to buy "Cheap". It may sound like these are a 100% promise of a profit but some coins are too esoteric for their own good or you can wait ages for the market to catch up with what coins are actually available. On the right day though I have doubled my money thru no genius on my part. James
The coin shops by me don’t even stock common items like 21 Merc’s, 32 D and S quarters, 38-D halves, unless they are in exceptional condition.
I believe people will still want fill holes but the collection managed by a custom designed spreadsheet. No cracking out for albums - albums to trash can.
Please define "exceptional condition."
I felt the same way after a number of really good coins I purchased during the 2011 to 2014 period fell in price. At least I have enjoyed them greatly. Of late, they have been coming back.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, case closed, fwifw
Maybe a topic for another thread.
Define key or Semi key date in this age of cross referencing every possible sale.
Is term/list outdated as much as the raw coin albums they used to fill?
A true appraisal of supply and demand might force the need to reevaluate the term.
How does true demand for rarity in the VAM Top 50 (less than 30 MS coins) stack up against the Lincoln 1909s VDB?
Is it an unfair comparison?
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
I have not noticed any key date half cents getting cheaper - but I am holding out hope.
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
That is not happening with the 1878-S half dollar or SLH semi-keys in general. The lower grades have climbed in price the past decade or so while prices for higher grades have actually dropped.
I overpaid for a few of my keys, but NONE have gone down.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I have to disagree somewhat here. I think key dates are a tent pole of the hobby as a whole. These are coins with stories to tell. Like Jeff Garrett said, “Stories are what sell coins. Otherwise they are just pieces of metal.”
He has drum up a lot of interest with his 100 greatest coins book and it is still a good seller. Keen collectors want these coins. As far as long term value trends, buying the right keys and quality is what matters most. An ugly PCI VG 16-D will not hold the same value as a choice PCGS CAC VG 16-D. Also, there is gaining popularity of people building a key date type set which I think is a super cool and fun way to collect!
And sure, classic rarities aren’t huge price performance kings but some of the lesser known ones like the 1880 shield nickel have resembled the price performance of the stock market. Take a look at this price history chart…
A great website with lots of great info on key dates and price history is
https://www.rarecoins101.com/key-date-coin-list.html
Coins that are head and shoulders better to what is usually seen.
Care to be specific (one coin?)
Unfortunately I bought them years prior to CAC's existence & have not tried submmitng them.
Am I reading this correctly? You overpaid for these coins back in the day and today it looks like you still overpaid; but, at least it hasn't gotten worst?
...
That's a rare coin! Only 16,000 minted with 10 in AG3 and 125 total PCGS population. That price guide figure may be a little bit of hyperbole. Last two sales at auction were:
3810 Jul-2021 $1,763 AG3
3810 Sep-2019 $1,440 AG3
The 1879 appears to be a better value for a type set. 25,900 minted with 4 in AG3 and 236 total PCGS population. Last sale at auction.
3808 Dec-2020 $336 AG3
@DisneyFan I’d have to disagree with you on the price hyperbole for the 1880 5c. Yes, the last sale at auction brought $1,763 but that was nearly 3 years ago… The coin has continuously been marching upwards. The PCGS price guide then was $1,750 and the CAC guide was $2,000. Now the PCGS guide is $2,500 and CAC guide is $2,620. One just sold on ebay recently (PCGS AG3) for $2,200 plus shipping… The thing is, with a coin like that, they are genuinely hard to find and you can’t just dial a coin like you can with so many other coins. Take a look at the auction description from the last Legend sale:
“FROM THE TRZASKA COLLECTION. Far and away the RAREST date in the series with a paltry mintage for circulation of only 16,000. Most of them did just that, and any 1880 nickel is a rarity. Most collectors settle for a Proof example to fill this glaring hole in their sets. On the other hand, some have filled the hole with whatever example they could find. The present example, while heavily worn is pleasing and generally problem free. It is a really neat coin that will temp anyone working on a low-ball Key date collection, or looking to add a nice circulated example to an "everyman" set. PCGS 9, NGC 1, CAC 2. The most recent PCGS-graded example realized $1,440 in September 2019 and was not CAC. The current PCGS Price Guide value is $1,750 and the CAC CPG is $2,000. A rare coin regardless of grade and rarely seen, this is a great coin that will see surprisingly strong demand from collectors.”
That pretty much sums it up. And yes, the 1879 5c may be a better value and certainly cheaper, but it is not THE key to the entire series like the 1880. And there is double the amount of available coins as to the ‘80.
Barberian,
I agree 100% with coins like the 78-s half, 70-71-cc quarters, 23/2 quarters etc, these really truly scarce have gotten way more expensive, I was more referring too stuff album fillers buy like 14-d lincoln, 32-d quarters , wlh in low circ grades.
I have been trying to win a 78-s half for years, and they just keep getting higher and higher.
Yes, the auction description you referred to was for the Jul-2021 sale where the 1880 AG3 coin sold for $1,763 and it was a CAC.
I agree the 1880 is the key to the set. My concern was the 5.25X spread between the two coins. Buyers are often influenced by price guides when determining a fair price to pay for a coin. There has been a lot of interest in acquiring the key date coins in each series. At one time I had that interest. That interest may soften over time which would cause the spread between the two coins to narrow. Set collectors may make the personal decision to be satisfied with not having a complete collection when a coin appears to be wildly overpriced.
I can give you an example in a series I do collect. The 1901-S Barber quarter is considered the key date. There are five of them in MS64 and the PCGS value is $62,500. The next scarcest Barber quarter in MS64 is the 1899-S. There are eight of them and the PCGS value is $4,750. Needless to say, the 1901-S is not on my wantlist. That's a personal decision for me.
Now if they would only drop enough that I could afford them for my albums.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Yes, I think we have two separate markets. The “key dates” for popular 20th century series, which as stated aren’t really rare, vs- key dates in earlier series, that are legitimately scarce and demand outweighs supply. In my case the 1793 Chain and 1799 large cents.
I'm fine with that happening. A 1909 S VDB or a 1916 D dime isn't really rare. In fact a 1907 HR is even more rare than those two and there are numerous classic proof issues that are rarer than any of these coins especially in cameo contrast.
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I think you're mixing apples w/pears. The 16-D Merc is rare w/in the Merc series.
I am NOT comparing Trump w/I didn't have sex w/that woman, Clinton
And to think that I almost curled up like a baby on the floor crying this week when I missed a 1915-S Lincoln MS65BN that was a chocolate beauty that I've hunted for a year. It will be cheaper next year? Somehow I have my doubts on that one.
And yeah, that was metaphorical, I actually had a couple of gin and tonics and bitched and moaned about it.
Wtf?
The 1916D isn't rare. It is a key date in the series but still not "rare" or even "scarce" within the series or outside of it.
Every one of the forty offers on eBay right now says “rare”.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
It is "Rare" for the majority of collectors who would like one to be able to afford it.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Lol. So do the 10,000 bicentennial quarters
That's not the definition of "rare". A $20 bill isn't rare because a homeless person can't get one.
PCGS alone has graded over 10,000 16D mercs. Each of us probably has their own definition of “rare”, but not many would use that adjective in this case. It is scarce in uncirculated grades IMO.
Rare to me means less than 20
Scarce... 100
Question is how many collectors?
Love old FUN show videos.
Mr Campbell on Dollars, surviving pop, etc.
Don Bonser gave a Lincoln Cent speech on what to buy.
Hardly a single date/MM had appreciated in two decades.
It was a point of growth for me. This is more than a list or label. What is the individual coin showing me?
How many circles of collectors interest intersect?
It could be a common proof or a key date, but the coin has to be exceptional.
That is how I define key/semi key
Have made fewer regrettable decisions.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
No, you're not understanding me. What I mean is that they have all appreciated. Out of all the coins that I've purchased; maybe only one or two of their original purchase prices are still above current market value. Some of those that I overpaid for had special attributes, too (upgrade candidates, vintage slabs, etc.). When you buy/sell you'll always have winners and losers...Everyone knows that. If 99% are winners then you're doing pretty well. That's all I'm trying to say.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/