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How Does the 2024 QB Class Stack Up To Previous Years?

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  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    I'm only interested in opinions from the NFL people and not really from the college guys and their rankings at all. Their viewpoint will always be skewed towards the college level while the NFL,at this pont, its all about how they'll project in the near future.

    Actually the college stuff is not skewed towards the college side. Some of it yes, theres many of the independent sports sites that do both college performance and pro potential. Sure if you just see some message boards thats true, but the best analysis where they dont have to be held to a company line cone from there. Ignoring the college side which had Wilson and Lances pro potential low would be like having an arranged marriage where you jump into something without knowing anything about them. Theres little chance that the TV guys or NFL guys will say sorry this is a bad QB draft dont watch our draft coverage.

    You can see it every year where a guy at the combine or a pro day throwing with no pads on and no defense gets hyped up

    Which is why its safe to say just cutoff most of the QB list every year because the majority of eligible QBs have a very rare chance at getting drafted and even less lasting long enough for a PS invite.

    ESPN QB ratings is not the place to get QB ratings from. Theres sometimes 1 or 2 maybe even 3 interesting guys after the first 2 or 3 at best and then it doesnt matter. Its backups and practice player guys unless teams are desperate for QBs some year. Most years dont even really have 2 or 3 top guys like 2021 didnt. The interesting guys usually arent ranked in order either and interesting doesnt mean will be good. Even if they were theres like 5 to 6 teams looking for a new starting QB every year.

    That would be monday morning QB at its finest when the book has already been written for those four QBs and how their first story has alread ended and now they'll end up else where to resurrect their careers.

    That would be the predictable if you paid attention to the college side

    Maybe,maybe not, nothing but assumption there.

    Theres no maybe. If you combined 2021 and 2024 QB classes the first 4 QBs are Lawrence, Caleb, Maye, Daniels in some order and again maybe Nix next. The classes arent even close but I get it Pats fans got excited for that draft

    The 2024 could end up as the best QB class in NFL history, OR not. We'd get our first real answers by years 3-4 if teams decide to move on from their QB but even then they'll likely get the same chancers to start over anew in a different city.

    Until then, i'm sure all of the draft media will just keep hyping things to the moon like they do every year at this time.

    Again though talent and NFL success for a draft prospect are not the same. The 2024 class is more talented than 2021

    Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    Actually the college stuff is not skewed towards the college side. Some of it yes, theres many of the independent sports sites that do both college performance and pro potential. Sure if you just see some message boards thats true, but the best analysis where they dont have to be held to a company line cone from there. Ignoring the college side which had Wilson and Lances pro potential low would be like having an arranged marriage where you jump into something without knowing anything about them. Theres little chance that the TV guys or NFL guys will say sorry this is a bad QB draft dont watch our draft coverage.

    I should have done a better job explaining that, I prefer listening and reading analysis from players that have played in the NFL where some actually were NFL quarterbacks compared to random guys who watched a lot of college football and decided to start a blog about it.

    Here in NE I prefer listening to former players in Scott Zolak, Christain Fauria & jermaine Wiggins to name a few, over someone who just watches games and gives their opinions or their own "analysis."

    ESPN QB ratings is not the place to get QB ratings from. Theres sometimes 1 or 2 maybe even 3 interesting guys after the first 2 or 3 at best and then it doesnt matter. Its backups and practice player guys unless teams are desperate for QBs some year. Most years dont even really have 2 or 3 top guys like 2021 didnt. The interesting guys usually arent ranked in order either and interesting doesnt mean will be good. Even if they were theres like 5 to 6 teams looking for a new starting QB every year.

    I didn't go to ESPN for the ratings for my OP comment in this thread. I did go to ESPN to see how they ranked this QB class alone and for the most part,their ratings were pretty much the same order of best QB to worst that you've been telling us about over the past 2 months with maybe a change or to on the backend.

    Theres no maybe. If you combined 2021 and 2024 QB classes the first 4 QBs are Lawrence, Caleb, Maye, Daniels in some order and again maybe Nix next. The classes arent even close but I get it Pats fans got excited for that draft

    So what you're saying is NE passes on Maye at 3,trades back for a boatload of picks then takes Mac Jones later on. 😎

    The 2024 class is more talented than 2021

    We're just arguing opinions here andobviously they differ. We won't really know if its better or not until the games actually play out. Until then there's really not much more to say on this topic.

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The bottom line is this draft could have a Bryce Young or CJ Stroud at any time when a Qab is selected.

    Nobody knows but I'm willing to bet that the chances of a Burrow or Allen coming out of this draft is pretty slim

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39808182/giants-owner-john-mara-gives-green-light-draft-quarterback
    The Giants ownership gives ok to draft QB. The Vikings may now need to definitely trade up ahead of them if they really want one of the top 4 QBs.

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    I should have done a better job explaining that, I prefer listening and reading analysis from players that have played in the NFL where some actually were NFL quarterbacks compared to random guys who watched a lot of college football and decided to start a blog about it.

    Here in NE I prefer listening to former players in Scott Zolak, Christain Fauria & jermaine Wiggins to name a few, over someone who just watches games and gives their opinions or their own "analysis."

    I'm not referring to random blogs but if you want to listen to QBs that watch no college football and pay no attention to the professional scouting services whose entire industry is unbiased recruiting and evaluation of players by all means. Wilson was ranked in the 20s behind Purdy for pro potential and Lance had 40 Qbs ranked ahead of him for pro potential.

    Pro guys and the pro talking heads are fine for NFL play and free agency, at the end of the day the NFL is a business and the talking heads will hype things up for TV jobs and interest. Maybe they saw a highlight film or something or a pro day where everyone looks good and teams are under pressure to hype up QBs, but they are not good sources when it comes to the draft.

    I didn't go to ESPN for the ratings for my OP comment in this thread. I did go to ESPN to see how they ranked this QB class alone and for the most part,their ratings were pretty much the same order of best QB to worst that you've been telling us about over the past 2 months with maybe a change or to on the backend.

    Best to worst is fairly easy, its the numbers attached Trey Lance having a mid 6 always was very predictably wrong.

    We're just arguing opinions here andobviously they differ. We won't really know if its better or not until the games actually play out. Until then there's really not much more to say on this topic.

    We do know what class is more talented and the talent level of classes. Youre equating talent with success. Success doesnt mean youre the most talented nor does failure mean you dont have talent. Many of the most talented players fail and many players of lesser talent succeed in the right situations.

    This is an incredibly talented class and draft overall, it doesnt mean everyone is going to succeed

    Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I just read the Athletic's latest mock draft and it has NE taking JJ McCarthy at #3 then Arizona trades #4 + two late picks for Minnesota's #11 & #23, a 3rd in this draft and a 2025 1st.
    Eliot Wolf should be fired if this scenario plays out lol.

  • galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭✭✭

    lots of mocks saying that Arizona is going to trade down. that may happen, but it's gonna require a trade partner that's fine with being gang raped. i still say they stand pat at 4, because they need a playmaking wideout like a crackhead needs a hit. and lookie there, a potential generational talent at that position is gonna be sitting on a silver platter. if they were to drop down to 11, there's a good chance they'd miss out on Harrison, Nabers AND Odunze. at that point Ossenfort (the GM) would and should be smeared with blood and tossed into the middle of the ocean.

    i say it's far more likely that khaki pants moves down from 5

    you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @galaxy27 said:
    lots of mocks saying that Arizona is going to trade down. that may happen, but it's gonna require a trade partner that's fine with being gang raped. i still say they stand pat at 4, because they need a playmaking wideout like a crackhead needs a hit. and lookie there, a potential generational talent at that position is gonna be sitting on a silver platter. if they were to drop down to 11, there's a good chance they'd miss out on Harrison, Nabers AND Odunze. at that point Ossenfort (the GM) would and should be smeared with blood and tossed into the middle of the ocean.

    i say it's far more likely that khaki pants moves down from 5

    I hit the lol because that post was epically hilarious

    But I do agree with you just couldn't hit agree and lol and lol deserved it more 😂😂😂

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @galaxy27 said:
    i say it's far more likely that khaki pants moves down from 5

    I saw an interesting suggestion elsewhere, Harbaugh sends justin Herbert to NE for #3 then drafts McCarthy at 3 and either MHJ or Nabers at 5. That trade would leave LA with a humongous dead cap number (100+M for Herbert alone) over the next couple years so not likely to ever happen.

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    galaxy, you're either going to love or hate this mock draft from former Fins VP/Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum now at ESPN.
    Arizona drafts...JJ McCarthy with the 4th pick then trades Kyler Murray to the Vikings for pick #11.
    He does have Marvin Harrison Jr falling to the Bears at 9 though.
    We can see why this guy is at ESPN and not still running a football franchise 🤣
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39788246/2024-nfl-mock-draft-tannenbaum-exec-first-round-32-picks

  • galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭✭✭

    if i hadn't known who put this together, i honestly would have said it's gotta be some reject retard at ESPN

    you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @galaxy27 said:
    i say it's far more likely that khaki pants moves down from 5

    I saw an interesting suggestion elsewhere, Harbaugh sends justin Herbert to NE for #3 then drafts McCarthy at 3 and either MHJ or Nabers at 5. That trade would leave LA with a humongous dead cap number (100+M for Herbert alone) over the next couple years so not likely to ever happen.

    Harbaugh is certainly capable of doing something like this though

    The guy is a complete oddity 😂😂😂

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @galaxy27 said:

    if i hadn't known who put this together, i honestly would have said it's gotta be some reject retard at ESPN

    Hey, that reject was in charge of two other AFCE teams at a time when Brady's pats were winning multiple SBs.
    I'd just like to thank Mike Tannenbaum for his service. 😎

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @galaxy27 said:
    i say it's far more likely that khaki pants moves down from 5

    I saw an interesting suggestion elsewhere, Harbaugh sends justin Herbert to NE for #3 then drafts McCarthy at 3 and either MHJ or Nabers at 5. That trade would leave LA with a humongous dead cap number (100+M for Herbert alone) over the next couple years so not likely to ever happen.

    Harbaugh is certainly capable of doing something like this though

    The guy is a complete oddity 😂😂😂

    It would be a pretty crazy move,i just checked Herbert's contract details and if they traded him over the next few years these would be his dead cap charges in each:
    2024 129M
    2025 110M
    2026 72M
    2027 50M

    The Chargers are already around 50M in dead cap money in 2024 due to Jc Jackson,Mike WIlliams & Keenan Allen.

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @galaxy27 said:
    i say it's far more likely that khaki pants moves down from 5

    I saw an interesting suggestion elsewhere, Harbaugh sends justin Herbert to NE for #3 then drafts McCarthy at 3 and either MHJ or Nabers at 5. That trade would leave LA with a humongous dead cap number (100+M for Herbert alone) over the next couple years so not likely to ever happen.

    Harbaugh is certainly capable of doing something like this though

    The guy is a complete oddity 😂😂😂

    It would be a pretty crazy move,i just checked Herbert's contract details and if they traded him over the next few years these would be his dead cap charges in each:
    2024 129M
    2025 110M
    2026 72M
    2027 50M

    The Chargers are already around 50M in dead cap money in 2024 due to Jc Jackson,Mike WIlliams & Keenan Allen.

    Insane

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If Harbaugh decides to go full loco and trade Justin Herbert so he could then draft J.J. McCarthy, it would be interesting to see what type of return he'd get. Herbert is 26 and locked up for the next five seasons at big money.

    For comparison:
    27yr old Deshaun Watson got dealt along with a 6th round pick for three first round picks, a third round pick and two fourth round picks. He signed the largest conract in NFL history that same day.

    33yr old Russell Wilson w/1yr left on his contract got traded for three players (quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive tackle Shelby Harris), two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick.

    I think that I'd rather take my chances with a young QB from the draft than make a trade like that for someone like Herbert if he became available.

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 28, 2024 8:36AM

    @erikthredd said:
    If Harbaugh decides to go full loco and trade Justin Herbert so he could then draft J.J. McCarthy, it would be interesting to see what type of return he'd get. Herbert is 26 and locked up for the next five seasons at big money.

    For comparison:
    27yr old Deshaun Watson got dealt along with a 6th round pick for three first round picks, a third round pick and two fourth round picks. He signed the largest conract in NFL history that same day.

    33yr old Russell Wilson w/1yr left on his contract got traded for three players (quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive tackle Shelby Harris), two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick.

    I think that I'd rather take my chances with a young QB from the draft than make a trade like that for someone like Herbert if he became available.

    I wouldn't do a trade like this and I'm not even a fan of Herbert to be honest, the Chargers were a disaster and Herbert wasn't even all that good with the weapons he had

    But to jam myself up with all that cap hit money for an unknown in McCarthy? Not a chance

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Supposedly Jayden Daniels didn't get weighed in at the combine and spent the past month trying to add on some pounds then at the LSU Pro Day yesterday, he weighed in at 210lbs.

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:
    Supposedly Jayden Daniels didn't get weighed in at the combine and spent the past month trying to add on some pounds then at the LSU Pro Day yesterday, he weighed in at 210lbs.

    Weight is good for some stuff like durability but might take away from his playmaking speed

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 9,055 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 28, 2024 9:08AM

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Supposedly Jayden Daniels didn't get weighed in at the combine and spent the past month trying to add on some pounds then at the LSU Pro Day yesterday, he weighed in at 210lbs.

    Weight is good for some stuff like durability but might take away from his playmaking speed

    It probably wouldn't hurt his playmaking speed that much. From what i've read about him he's a great overall athlete and part of the reason why he's going to top 3 is because of his ability to get out and run. He just doesn't get down at the end of plays and takes alot of big hits. NFL defenders are bigger,stronger & faster to what he's used to.

    If he's weighing in at 210 right now in the middle of the offseason where he's spent the past couple months trying to gain weight,what weight was he playing at during the season? Maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to plan for an actual playing weight of 210-215 which likely means getting up to around 220-225 going into training camp.

    I don't remember seeing you mention your preference but if we end drafting a quarterback at 3, what would be your order of prefererence?
    Mine would be..
    1. Daniels
    2. Maye
    3. McCarthy

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 28, 2024 11:14AM

    @erikthredd

    IDK I'm really not overly confident in any of the top QB's mentioned but looking at Anthony Richardson last year before he got hurt his running really looked like it was helping his game and buying everyone time for his passing skills to develop, so with that being said I'd say I'm with you 100% with Daniels, Maye and McCarthy as well

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭✭✭

    He doesnt honestly believe that. He didnt even want McCarthy throwing the ball at Michigan much less in the NFL

    Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    He doesnt honestly believe that. He didnt even want McCarthy throwing the ball at Michigan much less in the NFL

    Harbaugh is a horse of a different color so anything is possible 😂😂😂

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @perkdog said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    He doesnt honestly believe that. He didnt even want McCarthy throwing the ball at Michigan much less in the NFL

    Harbaugh is a horse of a different color so anything is possible 😂😂😂

    Hes different, but hes already proved what he really thinks. McCarthy was the starter for Michigan for 2 years and it was never a we need the ball in his hands play calling. Harbaugh can say whatever he wants, hes already shown he doesnt really believe in him and was just the best that was available to him.

    Aside from hyping up someone he probably likes, if he thinks that somehow his words could influence another team thats a strategty too. If someone trades up ahead of them to take McCarthy that gives them more options for their pick. If Pro Days are all that matter than Milton should be the first overall pick. Hes the best QB by far until you watch his game tape l;ol.

    Everyone looks good on pro days, theres no pads and no defenders, its the most worthless evaluation tool

    Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,848 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    @perkdog said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    He doesnt honestly believe that. He didnt even want McCarthy throwing the ball at Michigan much less in the NFL

    Harbaugh is a horse of a different color so anything is possible 😂😂😂

    Hes different, but hes already proved what he really thinks. McCarthy was the starter for Michigan for 2 years and it was never a we need the ball in his hands play calling. Harbaugh can say whatever he wants, hes already shown he doesnt really believe in him and was just the best that was available to him.

    Aside from hyping up someone he probably likes, if he thinks that somehow his words could influence another team thats a strategty too. If someone trades up ahead of them to take McCarthy that gives them more options for their pick. If Pro Days are all that matter than Milton should be the first overall pick. Hes the best QB by far until you watch his game tape l;ol.

    Everyone looks good on pro days, theres no pads and no defenders, its the most worthless evaluation tool

    I know, it was just another way to make fun of Harbaugh,

    I do like him and respect his coaching but I enjoy his weirdness more lol

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 3,634 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @perkdog said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @perkdog said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    He doesnt honestly believe that. He didnt even want McCarthy throwing the ball at Michigan much less in the NFL

    Harbaugh is a horse of a different color so anything is possible 😂😂😂

    Hes different, but hes already proved what he really thinks. McCarthy was the starter for Michigan for 2 years and it was never a we need the ball in his hands play calling. Harbaugh can say whatever he wants, hes already shown he doesnt really believe in him and was just the best that was available to him.

    Aside from hyping up someone he probably likes, if he thinks that somehow his words could influence another team thats a strategty too. If someone trades up ahead of them to take McCarthy that gives them more options for their pick. If Pro Days are all that matter than Milton should be the first overall pick. Hes the best QB by far until you watch his game tape l;ol.

    Everyone looks good on pro days, theres no pads and no defenders, its the most worthless evaluation tool

    I know, it was just another way to make fun of Harbaugh,

    I do like him and respect his coaching but I enjoy his weirdness more lol

    Dont worry youll have plenty of chances to make fun of him and his play calling

    Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007

  • fergie23fergie23 Posts: 2,140 ✭✭✭✭

    You could use a dart board and do as well rating too QB prospects, same with WRs. There are occasional sure things at those positions but QB college success means next to nothing in the NFL because WRs get too open in college and defenses are generally simple.

    NFL WR success is governed mostly by route running, defense recognition and catch radius. Speed and strength are almost irrelevant, as long as minimal thresholds are met, when determining which WRs will be successful in the NFL.

    NFL QB success is governed by defense recognition first and foremost and accuracy second. Occasionally an outlier like Lamar succeeds. There was a reason why Romo could so accurately predict where the QB was throwing the ball at the snap when he first moved into the booth.

    Robb

  • Desert MoonDesert Moon Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:
    If Harbaugh decides to go full loco and trade Justin Herbert so he could then draft J.J. McCarthy, it would be interesting to see what type of return he'd get. Herbert is 26 and locked up for the next five seasons at big money.

    For comparison:
    27yr old Deshaun Watson got dealt along with a 6th round pick for three first round picks, a third round pick and two fourth round picks. He signed the largest conract in NFL history that same day.

    33yr old Russell Wilson w/1yr left on his contract got traded for three players (quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive tackle Shelby Harris), two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick.

    I think that I'd rather take my chances with a young QB from the draft than make a trade like that for someone like Herbert if he became available.

    The only thing I would add to that is that Herbert is the type QB to be elite - tall, big arm, smart, quick. His numbers so far are very good on a dysfunctional team. Add Harbaugh to the equation and Herbert's upside just went up. This is the thing, infrastructure, system, coaches, matter in making an elite qb. Would Brady have done it without Belichick and the Pat system? Or was it just Brady? This is why I think the match is key (system, coach), and looking forward to seeing how Herbert does this year. Trading him and adding a rookie qb with less CFB quality performances that Herbert? Not.

    My online coin store - https://desertmoonnm.com/
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