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How Does the 2024 QB Class Stack Up To Previous Years?

erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

With NE owning the 3rd overall pick in the draft and with the 2024 QB class being considered very deep, I wanted to see how this draft class compares to previous drafts. The Pats are projected to select either Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye depending on which QB falls to them so I was curious to see how the two stacked up with previous QBs by using their pre-draft grading score.

I used the grading scale that the NFL's website uses to make these comparisons and for the most part the grading was consistent from the 2011 draft to 2023.
Here's their explanation on their grading process...

For some reason the 2014 season used the player's overall grade but I found the equivalent number in comparison to the rest of the list and marked those players accordingly (Luck/RG3/Geno were just a few.) One other year 2011, seemed a bit off when there were a ton of players with a ranking of 7.00 or higher.
The grades themselves were each part of the overall draft class that included every position, the actual scores were not used to just rank the QB position alone.
Also the NFLN site gave a slight projection with each player's grade and after putting together this list I was able to see which grade ranges went with certain projections. I broke down the rankings by their player projections.

This thread wasn't meant to prove one way or the other who was a good QB and who wasn't, I just wanted to see how each player was ranked going into the draft by using their draft grades. I figured it could be a spark a decent conversation when readers see where certain QBs actually were ranked at the time they were drafted.

I used the 5.50 number as my cutoff when most of the players with a grade below that were low round picks that we're likely to never hear about again.

(the 2024 Qbs are marked in bold & italics)

Perennial All-Pro
97 Andrew Luck - 2012 1st Round [For comparison, Trevor Lawrence is a 7.4 or 89]
95 Robert Griffin III - 2012 1st
91 Geno Smith - 2013 1st [91 is equal to 7.50]
7.50 Cam Newton - 2011 1st
7.50 Jake Locker - 2011 1st
7.50 Blaine Gabbert - 2011 1st
7.40 Trevor Lawrence - 2021 1st

Pro Bowl Talent
7.10 Sam Darnold - 2018 1st
7.07 Joe Burrow - 2020 1st
7.00 Mitch Trubisky - 2017 1st
7.00 Jared Goff - 2016 1st
7.00 Christain Ponder - 2011 1st
7.00 Andy Dalton - 2011 2nd
7.00 Colin Kaepernick - 2011 2nd
7.00 Jameis Winston - 2015 1st

Year One Starter
6.82 Bryce Young - 2023 1st
6.80 Kyler Murray - 2019 1st
6.80 Deshaun Watson - 2017 1st
6.80 Paxton Lynch - 2016 1st
6.80 Marcus Mariota - 2015 1st
6.80 Blake Bortles - 2014 1st
6.80 Teddy Bridgewater - 2014 1st
6.77 Tua Tagovailoa - 2020 1st
6.74 Caleb Williams - 2024
6.73 Jayden Daniels - 2024
6.70 CJ Stroud - 2023 1st
6.70 Dwayne Haskins - 2019 1st
6.70 Baker Mayfield - 2018 1st
6.70 Josh Rosen - 2018 1st
6.70 Carsen Wentz - 2016 1st

Boom Or Bust Potential
84 Ryan Tannehill - 2012 1st [84 is equal to 6.50]
6.50 Drake Maye - 2024
6.50 Zach Wilson - 2021 1st

Will Become A Good Starter Within Two Years
6.47 Trey Lance - 2021 1st
6.45 Justin Fields - 2021 1st
6.45 Justin Herbert - 2020 1st
6.41 Malik Willis - 2022 3rd
6.40 J.J. McCarthy - 2024
6.40 Kenny Pickett - 2022 1st
6.40 Matt Corral - 2022 3rd
6.40 Drew Lock - 2019 2nd
6.40 Anthony Richardson - 2023 1st
6.40 Josh Allen - 2018 1st
6.40 Lamar Jackson - 2018 1st
6.40 Johnny Manziel - 2014 1st

Will Eventually Be A Plus Starter
6.39 Bo Nix - 2024
6.36 Jordan Love - 2020 1st
6.36 Desmond Riddler - 2022 3rd
6.34 Will Levis - 2023 2nd
6.33 Mac Jones - 2021 1st
6.30 Daniel Jones - 2019 1st
6.30 Patrick Mahomes - 2017 1st
6.30 Deshone Kizer - 2017 2nd
6.30 Nathan Peterman - 2017 5th
6.30 Derek Carr - 2014 2nd
6.30 Connor Cook - 2016 4th

Will Eventually Be an Average Starter
6.25 Michael Penix Jr - 2024
6.25 Jacob Eason - 2020 4th
6.23 Hendon Hooker - 2023 3rd
6.22 Sam Howell - 2022 5th
6.20 A.J. McCarron - 2014 5th
6.20 Ryan Finley - 2019 4th

Good Backup With The Potential To Develop Into Starter
6.19 Kyle Trask - 2021 2nd
6.16 Jake Fromm - 2020 5th
6.14 Davis Mills - 2021 3rd
6.14 Jalen Hurts - 2020 2nd
6.12 Kellen Mond - 2021 3rd
6.10 Jarrett Stidham - 2019 4th
6.10 Brad Kaaya - 2017 6th
6.10 Luke Falk - 2018 6th
6.10 Mike White - 2018 5th
6.10 Christain Hackenberg - 2016 2nd
6.10 Tyrod Taylor - 2011 6th
6.10 Brett Hundley - 2015 5th

Average Backup OR Special Teams Player
5.96 James Morgan - 2020 4th
5.96 Aiden O'Connell - 2023 4th
5.95 Spencer Rattler - 2024
5.94 Stetson Bennett - 2023 4th
5.90 Will Grier - 2019 3rd
5.90 Chad Kelly - 2017 7th
5.90 Dak Prescott - 2016 4th
5.90 Cardale Jones - 2016 4th
5.90 Garrett Grayson - 2015 3rd
5.90 Jimmy Garoppolo - 2014 3rd
5.90 Logan Thomas - 2014 4th
5.89 Jordan Travis - 2024
5.84 Devin Leary - 2024
5.84 Michael Pratt - 2024
5.80 Jake Haener - 2023 4th
5.80 Davis Webb - 2017 3rd
5.80 Kyle Lauletta - 2018 4th
5.80 Bryce Petty - 2015 4th
5.80 Sean Mannion - 2015 3rd

Candidate For Bottom Of Roster Or Practice Squad
5.68 Jake Luton - 2020 6th
5.67 Bailey Zappe - 2022 4th
5.60 Kirk Cousins - 2012 4th
5.60 Tom Savage - 2014 4th
5.60 Josh Dobbs - 2017 4th
5.60 Gardner Minshew - 2019 6th

Priority Undrafted Free Agent
5.57 Brock Purdy - 2022 7th
5.50 CJ Beathard - 2017 3rd

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Comments

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    JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,223 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thanks for all the work you put in here.

    Looks to me like these projections are in many cases total garbage.

    I guess that my Vikings should stick with Sam Darnold and not waste their picks moving up to pick a lower rated QB?

    Our departed guy Kirk Cousins, projected to be a "bottom of roster or practice squad" player has made $281.5M in his career. Slightly better than the much higher rated ex Viking Christian Ponder.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I agree. These grades just show that you never really can tell who will become a good NFL QB and who won't. Alot of it depends on where the player gets drafted to, is that team good at developing QBs and will that player have serviceable offensive players around him?

    There are quite a few lower grade players that have turned out to be very good to even great Qbs.
    Cousins was one. For as low as his draft score was heading into his draft, its now 12 years later and the guy is still going strong heading into year 13. Russell Wilson & Ryan Tannehill are the only Qbs from that draft class still in the league and 2012 had some good ones, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III & Nick Foles.

    Just seeing Mahomes given a score of 6.30 shows how much credit that he & Andy Reid both deserve for becoming the player that he has.

    On the flipside, there are many QBs on this list that ESPN & the NFLN have both fawned over for years that eventually amounted to pretty Meh overall careers to date,even some highly ranked ones.

    Seeing this is part of the reason why I'm ok with NE passing on a QB with the 3rd overall pick. there's no guarantee that he turns into a stud and even less when the team has so few offensive pieces to surround the guy with.

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Drake Maye's name has frequently been projected as the third overall pick and his best comparisons range from being the next Josh Allen or he could be the next Mitch Trubisky. Everything would need to go right to come close to reaching a Josh Allen type level but with NE's offense looking like it currently does, Maye may not need to drop far to become the next Trubisky.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    This should be a fun discussion. QBs have the biggest hit or miss rate whether college or the NFL and some of it has to do with where they go. Ill just ignore anyone the Browns or Jets drafted since everyone for like 15 years theyve tried over and over has been terrible. Thats an organizational thing

    A few names do pop out for different reasons though seeing the NFL website rankings. Allen is certainly an outlier not being a power 5 (now power 4) QB but Wyoming is an outlier anyways. They put way more guys into the pros than a school that small should.

    I should probably get it out of the way but there were always questions about Mac being any better than average when even the Heisman gave his WR the Heisman over him. Trubiskey was always a why is he viewed so high from the college side, while Mahomes was a stud at a smaller program but the Bears did Bears stuff at that time.

    Pickett was one that was easy to see wouldnt work. Pitt wasnt very good and the ACC hasnt been all that good for years, just top heavy with Clemson at the time. He also had Jordan Addison which was half his stats who would be a number one on a lot of teams if he wasnt on the Vikings behind JJ.

    Georgia QBs had a period after Stafford for several years where the QB was just a game manager like McCarthy was last year and only more recently are they expected to be weapons with an NFL style offense.

    On a positive side Dak was way to low. The first college football playoff rankings ever Mississippi State was ranked #1 with Dak there and he was an absolute stud.

    For this year Leary is the most interesting in the sense of maybe getting a steal. He had the Drew Breese style should injury 2 seasons ago and his arm strength didnt come back. I dont know if it will but of he does he could be someone

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 18, 2024 8:35AM

    I fully admit that I don't watch college football and there were a lot of names on this list, including many late round QBs that were drafted but I didn't include, that I had never heard of before. Many may turn out to be future QB coaches or even a few offensive coordinators down the line.

    I tried making it a 25yr time span and adding QBs like Eli/Rivers/Ben/Brees/Vick/Stafford/Bradford/Jamarcus Russell/Vince Young/ Matt Leinart/Alex Smith/Mcnabb/Couch/Akili Smith/Culpepper and of course Tom Brady but the NFL wasn't doing overall draft grades at the time and many of their draft profile pages are no longer available.

    In recent years, one thing I did notice was teams were more apt to go after QBs in the earlier rounds where back in the 2000's and early 2010's you'd see QBs more evenly spaced throughout the draft.

    Over the past 3-5 drafts it seems like more QBs that maybe aren't considered 1st rounders in the traditional sense are now going in round one and some have even been creeping into the top 10, JJ McCarthy might be this year's example. Others that may have had a 3rd/4th round grade may jump into the back end of the 1st or early 2nd. Having that day off between Day's one & two of the draft surely helps when it puts more focus on those QBs overnight.

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    JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,223 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That's because (one reason at least) the NFL seems to want a "prototypical" player at QB.

    Jamarcus Russell, Jeff George, Tim Couch, David Carr, Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield we're not only first round picks, but drafted first overall.

    A lot of there's guys were big tall guys with great arms, but the fact is you just never know how a guy is going to play when he gets to the NFL.

    I'm betting if Caleb Williams goes first overall, one of the other 2-4 QBs drafted after him ends up being better. Hopefully the guy the Vikings pick.😁

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JoeBanzai said:
    That's because (one reason at least) the NFL seems to want a "prototypical" player at QB.

    Jamarcus Russell, Jeff George, Tim Couch, David Carr, Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield we're not only first round picks, but drafted first overall.

    A lot of there's guys were big tall guys with great arms, but the fact is you just never know how a guy is going to play when he gets to the NFL.

    I'm betting if Caleb Williams goes first overall, one of the other 2-4 QBs drafted after him ends up being better. Hopefully the guy the Vikings pick.😁

    I'm actually listening to a Pats podcast right now that mentioned ironically a writer Alec Lewis, who covers the Vikings and writes for the Athletic, who in an article today brought up an offensive draft pick analysis chart by ProFootballFocus from 2020.
    They compared early round picks on offense from 2006 to 2020 and their outcome was that just 20.6% of QBs taken in the top 3 picks ever reach that 90th-percentile of elite quarterback play. That rate drops to just 6.6% when drafting in the 2nd round.
    Unfortunately you need to be a subscriber to view the PFF article but this link does explain some of their calculations. https://archive.is/AIYF4#selection-1931.0-1931.61

    Hopefully the guy the Vikings pick.😁

    Is there a lot of talk in Vikings land about moving up into the top 3? Since they traded for that second 1st round pick last week half of NE thinks it was a precursor to making a play for pick #3.
    Ironically, there have been reports from this morning saying that the Pats aren't interested in trading the pick which is likely posturing on their end in an attempt to get a better return. If these two teams do eventually come to an agreement its going to be interesting to see what other picks &/or players are included after #11 & #23.

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    galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,150 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Latest rumor that has gained a considerable amount of steam in a short period of time:

    Minny moves up to 4

    Arizona gets 11, 23 and a '25 first-rounder

    if that happens, Jim Harbaugh's first draft pick as HC of the Chargers would be a Buckeye

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @galaxy27 said:
    Latest rumor that has gained a considerable amount of steam in a short period of time:

    Minny moves up to 4

    Arizona gets 11, 23 and a '25 first-rounder

    if that happens, Jim Harbaugh's first draft pick as HC of the Chargers would be a Buckeye

    In that scenario the Vikings may end up having to take McCarthy, if NE doesn't move back they likely go with whoever falls to them in Maye or Daniels.

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    galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,150 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    In that scenario the Vikings may end up having to take McCarthy

    that's who they are targeting. why, i have no idea. a tremendous reach imo. i saw a number of Michigan games and he looked like a 3rd or 4th rounder

    some of these desperate teams lose their ever-loving minds

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @galaxy27 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    In that scenario the Vikings may end up having to take McCarthy

    that's who they are targeting. why, i have no idea. a tremendous reach imo. i saw a number of Michigan games and he looked like a 3rd or 4th rounder

    some of these desperate teams lose their ever-loving minds

    Probably trying to jump ahead of the Giants at 6 who need a QB too, at least at 4 you're guaranteed one of the top 4 QBs.
    If that deal happened you'll be missing out on your Kyler/MHJ pairing but they could still end up with a Kyler/Bower/WR from a group of about 6-8 1st round caliber wideouts.

    Maybe Harbaugh decides to move Justin Herbert for the Vikings best offer and takes McCarthy at 5 himself. 😎

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    GroceryRackPackGroceryRackPack Posts: 2,488 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'd go for 2020 again...and again... :)

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @galaxy27 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    In that scenario the Vikings may end up having to take McCarthy

    that's who they are targeting. why, i have no idea. a tremendous reach imo. i saw a number of Michigan games and he looked like a 3rd or 4th rounder

    some of these desperate teams lose their ever-loving minds

    Probably trying to jump ahead of the Giants at 6 who need a QB too, at least at 4 you're guaranteed one of the top 4 QBs.
    If that deal happened you'll be missing out on your Kyler/MHJ pairing but they could still end up with a Kyler/Bower/WR from a group of about 6-8 1st round caliber wideouts.

    Maybe Harbaugh decides to move Justin Herbert for the Vikings best offer and takes McCarthy at 5 himself. 😎

    That would be the most Chargers thing ever to do. Id honestly be happy for Herbert and Spanos would deserve to lose every game like they would with McCarthy as their QB. Vikings are the last place I want to see McCarthy go. Im so sick of the media pretending like hes a good QB when hes just not. All he was was a game manager that for every great play made 2 bad ones which is why his own school didnt let him throw very much and literally went over 37 minutes in a game against Penn State without even attempting a pass.

    Unfortunately the Vikinigs WR core is so good that pretty much anyone can actually be decent there if not good given they have at least two legit number 1s and maybe even 3 of them whose a legit 2 at worst. Even with that though McCarthy in the top 5 would be an absolutely insane pick and I would do a wellness check on whoever did it to make sure they dont have dementia or arent being held at gun point. Theres so many better options than him

    Bo Nix among others would be a better choice but still stupid to trade up to 4 to get. Pretty much every year someone does something stupid to get a QB like the Colts with Richardson last year who was at best the 3rd best QB in the SEC East much less the conference or country. I get it though, coaches or GMs have their job on the line so they do something desperate to try and save and it and dont care what happens to the franchise if they get fired.

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    perkdogperkdog Posts: 29,523 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm willing to bet that there might legitimately be one solid QB out of this draft when all.is said and done, this draft is getting more and more hype and the anticipation is sky high

    And yes I'm looking forward to it for sure it after it shakes out these guys still need to be good Quarterbacks and very rarely do multiple QB's from the same draft turn out to be great picks.

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @galaxy27 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    In that scenario the Vikings may end up having to take McCarthy

    that's who they are targeting. why, i have no idea. a tremendous reach imo. i saw a number of Michigan games and he looked like a 3rd or 4th rounder

    some of these desperate teams lose their ever-loving minds

    Probably trying to jump ahead of the Giants at 6 who need a QB too, at least at 4 you're guaranteed one of the top 4 QBs.
    If that deal happened you'll be missing out on your Kyler/MHJ pairing but they could still end up with a Kyler/Bower/WR from a group of about 6-8 1st round caliber wideouts.

    Maybe Harbaugh decides to move Justin Herbert for the Vikings best offer and takes McCarthy at 5 himself. 😎

    That would be the most Chargers thing ever to do. Id honestly be happy for Herbert and Spanos would deserve to lose every game like they would with McCarthy as their QB. Vikings are the last place I want to see McCarthy go. Im so sick of the media pretending like hes a good QB when hes just not. All he was was a game manager that for every great play made 2 bad ones which is why his own school didnt let him throw very much and literally went over 37 minutes in a game against Penn State without even attempting a pass.

    Unfortunately the Vikinigs WR core is so good that pretty much anyone can actually be decent there if not good given they have at least two legit number 1s and maybe even 3 of them whose a legit 2 at worst. Even with that though McCarthy in the top 5 would be an absolutely insane pick and I would do a wellness check on whoever did it to make sure they dont have dementia or arent being held at gun point. Theres so many better options than him

    Bo Nix among others would be a better choice but still stupid to trade up to 4 to get. Pretty much every year someone does something stupid to get a QB like the Colts with Richardson last year who was at best the 3rd best QB in the SEC East much less the conference or country. I get it though, coaches or GMs have their job on the line so they do something desperate to try and save and it and dont care what happens to the franchise if they get fired.

    I think one of NE's best case scenarios would be trading back with the Vikings for 11/23/2025 1st, going with the best fit at WR/Tackle with those two firsts then maybe grabbing Bo Nix using #34 even if it means a move up at that point.

    I've seen mocks where Bo goes late 2nd/early 3rd but there's a real chance that some team needing a QB jumps into the late 1st to take him.

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    JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,223 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If the Vikings trade up, giving up 2 first round picks and get another Cristian Ponder, it will be a disaster. They don't have a second or third round pick.

    I hope they take a stud defensive tackle and whatever QB is available in the first round.

    I am also curious about people's opinion on Sam Darnold. He started for a lousy Jets team, could he thrive in Minnesota with the skill position players we have? He was the third overall pick when he got drafted.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    He played on some poorly run offenses with both the Panthers & Jets and you'd think that he should be able to thrive throwing to Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson with Aaron Jones coming out of the backfield but who knows? Are the Vikings willing to pass on the chance to get one of the better QBs? Doesn't look like it.

    I was surprised to see his name as one of the higher rated QBs on this list.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @JoeBanzai said:
    If the Vikings trade up, giving up 2 first round picks and get another Cristian Ponder, it will be a disaster. They don't have a second or third round pick.

    I hope they take a stud defensive tackle and whatever QB is available in the first round.

    I am also curious about people's opinion on Sam Darnold. He started for a lousy Jets team, could he thrive in Minnesota with the skill position players we have? He was the third overall pick when he got drafted.

    Darnold has the talent to be successful with that Vikings WR core. He has injury issues, which is probably the biggest concern of him being a starter. He was on two very bad franchises for the start of his career. Hes not very mobile but if the Vikings can keep him upright with their WR core he should be fine and good enough not to trade away all their first rounders for someone else.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @galaxy27 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    In that scenario the Vikings may end up having to take McCarthy

    that's who they are targeting. why, i have no idea. a tremendous reach imo. i saw a number of Michigan games and he looked like a 3rd or 4th rounder

    some of these desperate teams lose their ever-loving minds

    Probably trying to jump ahead of the Giants at 6 who need a QB too, at least at 4 you're guaranteed one of the top 4 QBs.
    If that deal happened you'll be missing out on your Kyler/MHJ pairing but they could still end up with a Kyler/Bower/WR from a group of about 6-8 1st round caliber wideouts.

    Maybe Harbaugh decides to move Justin Herbert for the Vikings best offer and takes McCarthy at 5 himself. 😎

    That would be the most Chargers thing ever to do. Id honestly be happy for Herbert and Spanos would deserve to lose every game like they would with McCarthy as their QB. Vikings are the last place I want to see McCarthy go. Im so sick of the media pretending like hes a good QB when hes just not. All he was was a game manager that for every great play made 2 bad ones which is why his own school didnt let him throw very much and literally went over 37 minutes in a game against Penn State without even attempting a pass.

    Unfortunately the Vikinigs WR core is so good that pretty much anyone can actually be decent there if not good given they have at least two legit number 1s and maybe even 3 of them whose a legit 2 at worst. Even with that though McCarthy in the top 5 would be an absolutely insane pick and I would do a wellness check on whoever did it to make sure they dont have dementia or arent being held at gun point. Theres so many better options than him

    Bo Nix among others would be a better choice but still stupid to trade up to 4 to get. Pretty much every year someone does something stupid to get a QB like the Colts with Richardson last year who was at best the 3rd best QB in the SEC East much less the conference or country. I get it though, coaches or GMs have their job on the line so they do something desperate to try and save and it and dont care what happens to the franchise if they get fired.

    I think one of NE's best case scenarios would be trading back with the Vikings for 11/23/2025 1st, going with the best fit at WR/Tackle with those two firsts then maybe grabbing Bo Nix using #34 even if it means a move up at that point.

    I've seen mocks where Bo goes late 2nd/early 3rd but there's a real chance that some team needing a QB jumps into the late 1st to take him.

    NE, Chargers, and Arizona would all be better off trading down if the Vikings would actually give up two first rounders this year and especially if they will give next years as well.

    I dont love Bo by any means but I do like him a lot more than McCarthy. Pennix I dont like since hes already had an ACL surgery on both knees. He does throw a very nice deep ball though and there needs to be someone to throw it too. 2nd or 3rd seems right for both but teams do weird stuff to reach for QBs. Rattler/Leary/Travis/Milton are interesting but they all have issues that need to be fixed with bust or boom potential. Travis probably wouldnt be able to play this year and probably ends up in later rounds

    I wouldnt be surprised if someone does something to get Bo or Pennix in the first, I do think they will end up regretting it though if they trade up to do so

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

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    perkdogperkdog Posts: 29,523 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    With 5 weeks still to go before the draft starts we're probably going to see the next 4 best Qbs slip into the back end of round one by then.

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    just heard an interesting tidbit that could prove meaningful or just plain worthless...Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell recently hired former NFL QB Josh McCown to be Minnesota's QB coach and McCown used to coach Drake Maye in high school. This could be part of the reason why the Vikings are so hot on moving up, or not.

    SIdenote on McCown: Homie played on 12 different NFL teams, not sure if that is the record but it has to be close.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:
    just heard an interesting tidbit that could prove meaningful or just plain worthless...Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell recently hired former NFL QB Josh McCown to be Minnesota's QB coach and McCown used to coach Drake Maye in high school. This could be part of the reason why the Vikings are so hot on moving up, or not.

    SIdenote on McCown: Homie played on 12 different NFL teams, not sure if that is the record but it has to be close.

    Josh Johnson played for 14 different teams. Well probably should have said signed with 14 different teams since he only started like 9 games in his career

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 19, 2024 1:39PM

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    Unfortunately thats very possible. At least 1 if not all three of those are going to end up getting some people fired. If I'm the Chargers I'm absolutely doing back flips at the thought of trading down right now. Same with the Cards if theyre going to stick with Murry. If other teams want to do stupid stuff let them. Most of the second round of this draft was going to be first round talents anyways and thats especially true if people are going to do dumb stuff like taking all three of them in the first.

    Take some teams 1st and 2nd and move down and walk away with 3 first round talents having a first and two second round picks., and if the Vikings are willing to give up both of their 1sts and a 2nd someone should be fired not taking it

  • Options
    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 19, 2024 1:12PM

    @erikthredd said:

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    With 5 weeks still to go before the draft starts we're probably going to see the next 4 best Qbs slip into the back end of round one by then.

    Lol I know youre just joking but honestly there is a chance that could happen with Rattler or Milton. Rattler was the preseason Heisman favorite after his freshman year before losing his job to Caleb at Oklahoma and transferring to South Carolina. South Carolina was better than they had any business being with him and any given week he can look like he should be the first overall pick, but theres also weeks where you wonder how hes even on the field.

    Milton has the best arm in the draft and would be one of the strongest in the NFL, he just has Ricky Vaughn tendencies from major league where lets just say his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. Then again Richardson went 4th overall and he was the most inaccurate passer in all of Division 1 college football when his target was open by 5 yards or more costing Florida at minimum 2 wins and more like 3 or 4.

    Crazier things have happened especially if someone really is going to be dumb enough to take McCarthy high in the first round.

  • Options
    galaxy27galaxy27 Posts: 7,150 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Joe Milton has a rifle

    if a team can properly groom him he could easily evolve

  • Options
    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 19, 2024 1:14PM

    He could end up being an absolute steal if someone can fix his issues. The big question is is it even possible. He got a little better at Tennessee after leaving Michigan but neither program was able to fix him and Tennessee has a coach known for getting the most out of QBs.

  • Options
    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    With 5 weeks still to go before the draft starts we're probably going to see the next 4 best Qbs slip into the back end of round one by then.

    Lol I know youre just joking but honestly there is a chance that could happen with Rattler or Milton. Rattler was the preseason Heisman favorite after his freshman year before losing his job to Caleb at Oklahoma and transferring to South Carolina. South Carolina was better than they had any business being with him and any given week he can look like he should be the first overall pick, but theres also weeks where you wonder how hes even on the field.

    Milton has the best arm in the draft and would be one of the strongest in the NFL, he just has Ricky Vaughn tendencies from major league where lets just say his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. Then again Richardson went 4th overall and he was the most inaccurate passer in all of Division 1 college football when his target was open by 5 yards or more costing Florida at minimum 2 wins and more like 3 or 4.

    Crazier things have happened especially if someone really is going to be dumb enough to take McCarthy high in the first round.

    This is what I actually want from NE, move back, stockpile picks and draft as much offensive talent as possible. Then draft, I'd say a midround QB but today's topic is about all of these midround QBs going much higher than expected. If they're going to draft a QB to sit and develop then make it someone in the range of rounds 3-5 and actually have him sit for a year while Brissett/Zappe start in 2024.
    Then heading into next offseason, your 2024 Qb has spent a year learning the ropes and is likely ready to start and you've already added legit talent at both the WR & Oline from the 2024 draft after trading back, you'll only be adding to it going into the 2025 draft. You might even have that extra 2025 1st if it was a deal with the Vikings.

    I'm going to be so disappointed if they just take the QB lol.

  • Options
    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    With 5 weeks still to go before the draft starts we're probably going to see the next 4 best Qbs slip into the back end of round one by then.

    Lol I know youre just joking but honestly there is a chance that could happen with Rattler or Milton. Rattler was the preseason Heisman favorite after his freshman year before losing his job to Caleb at Oklahoma and transferring to South Carolina. South Carolina was better than they had any business being with him and any given week he can look like he should be the first overall pick, but theres also weeks where you wonder how hes even on the field.

    Milton has the best arm in the draft and would be one of the strongest in the NFL, he just has Ricky Vaughn tendencies from major league where lets just say his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. Then again Richardson went 4th overall and he was the most inaccurate passer in all of Division 1 college football when his target was open by 5 yards or more costing Florida at minimum 2 wins and more like 3 or 4.

    Crazier things have happened especially if someone really is going to be dumb enough to take McCarthy high in the first round.

    This is what I actually want from NE, move back, stockpile picks and draft as much offensive talent as possible. Then draft, I'd say a midround QB but today's topic is about all of these midround QBs going much higher than expected. If they're going to draft a QB to sit and develop then make it someone in the range of rounds 3-5 and actually have him sit for a year while Brissett/Zappe start in 2024.
    Then heading into next offseason, your 2024 Qb has spent a year learning the ropes and is likely ready to start and you've already added legit talent at both the WR & Oline from the 2024 draft after trading back, you'll only be adding to it going into the 2025 draft. You might even have that extra 2025 1st if it was a deal with the Vikings.

    I'm going to be so disappointed if they just take the QB lol.

    Its kind of hard to tell around now whats just click bait being put out there, whats just GM play "leaking" stories trying to get teams to panic and increase their offers etc. McCarthy really should be in that 3-5 range but if its true hes going to go that high I really have no idea whats going to happen and I might have to go find a casino and start putting some unders on win totals lol.

    Theres some other interesting options on the back end that havent been mentioned yet. Harman has a lower ceiling but he was a 5 year starter at Wake Forrest and had two very good years before finishing with a disappointing final year at Notre Dame.

    Slovis was very good his freshman year at USC and has injury issues. He eventually lost his job from injury and started dating a female soccer player at Pitt and transferred there where he wasnt great which isnt surprising given the talent level at Pitt and ended up finishing at BYU. He probably goes undrafted unless someone remembers the talent level and his freshman year and takes a shot late.

    Spencer Sanders is another. 4 year good starter at Oklahoma State and then in one of the dumbest decisions transferred to Ole Miss where he road the bench his final year behind Dart. I guess he expected Dart to go to the NFL or something but it was a weird move.

    Hes really not very good and should go undrafted but someone might take a chance on Jurkovec from Pitt loving that hes like 6'5 230.

    But yea the smart thing would be to move back. Really thats true for all the top 5 pick teams other than the Bears. Washington should be trying too but they wont. The fans are demanding a QB and the new owner would be putting himself in a bad spot if the first thing he did was trade the #2 pick when they already traded their QB. Pats probably take a QB unless they fleece someone and their initial ask talking to other teams at the senior bowl was extremely high. They may not like one of the QBs though and be more open to trading it depending on whose left there. Unless the Cards pull a Broncos they have their QB already and the Chargers certainly have theirs.

  • Options
    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    With 5 weeks still to go before the draft starts we're probably going to see the next 4 best Qbs slip into the back end of round one by then.

    Lol I know youre just joking but honestly there is a chance that could happen with Rattler or Milton. Rattler was the preseason Heisman favorite after his freshman year before losing his job to Caleb at Oklahoma and transferring to South Carolina. South Carolina was better than they had any business being with him and any given week he can look like he should be the first overall pick, but theres also weeks where you wonder how hes even on the field.

    Milton has the best arm in the draft and would be one of the strongest in the NFL, he just has Ricky Vaughn tendencies from major league where lets just say his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. Then again Richardson went 4th overall and he was the most inaccurate passer in all of Division 1 college football when his target was open by 5 yards or more costing Florida at minimum 2 wins and more like 3 or 4.

    Crazier things have happened especially if someone really is going to be dumb enough to take McCarthy high in the first round.

    This is what I actually want from NE, move back, stockpile picks and draft as much offensive talent as possible. Then draft, I'd say a midround QB but today's topic is about all of these midround QBs going much higher than expected. If they're going to draft a QB to sit and develop then make it someone in the range of rounds 3-5 and actually have him sit for a year while Brissett/Zappe start in 2024.
    Then heading into next offseason, your 2024 Qb has spent a year learning the ropes and is likely ready to start and you've already added legit talent at both the WR & Oline from the 2024 draft after trading back, you'll only be adding to it going into the 2025 draft. You might even have that extra 2025 1st if it was a deal with the Vikings.

    I'm going to be so disappointed if they just take the QB lol.

    Its kind of hard to tell around now whats just click bait being put out there, whats just GM play "leaking" stories trying to get teams to panic and increase their offers etc. McCarthy really should be in that 3-5 range but if its true hes going to go that high I really have no idea whats going to happen and I might have to go find a casino and start putting some unders on win totals lol.

    Theres some other interesting options on the back end that havent been mentioned yet. Harman has a lower ceiling but he was a 5 year starter at Wake Forrest and had two very good years before finishing with a disappointing final year at Notre Dame.

    Slovis was very good his freshman year at USC and has injury issues. He eventually lost his job from injury and started dating a female soccer player at Pitt and transferred there where he wasnt great which isnt surprising given the talent level at Pitt and ended up finishing at BYU. He probably goes undrafted unless someone remembers the talent level and his freshman year and takes a shot late.

    Spencer Sanders is another. 4 year good starter at Oklahoma State and then in one of the dumbest decisions transferred to Ole Miss where he road the bench his final year behind Dart. I guess he expected Dart to go to the NFL or something but it was a weird move.

    Hes really not very good and should go undrafted but someone might take a chance on Jurkovec from Pitt loving that hes like 6'5 230.

    But yea the smart thing would be to move back. Really thats true for all the top 5 pick teams other than the Bears. Washington should be trying too but they wont. The fans are demanding a QB and the new owner would be putting himself in a bad spot if the first thing he did was trade the #2 pick when they already traded their QB. Pats probably take a QB unless they fleece someone and their initial ask talking to other teams at the senior bowl was extremely high. They may not like one of the QBs though and be more open to trading it depending on whose left there. Unless the Cards pull a Broncos they have their QB already and the Chargers certainly have theirs.

    I still have the ESPN draft positional rankings tab still open and looking at the QB's that you mentioned, some have grades considerably lower than top QBs. ESPN uses the 100pt system for their grades and this was the entire QB list:
    Caleb 96
    Daniels 95
    Maye 93
    McCarthy 90
    Nix 86
    Penix Jr 70
    Rattler 67
    Pratt 66
    Leary 57
    Milton lll 55
    Hartman 54
    Travis 49
    Slovis 43
    Bradley 38
    Reed 32

    Sidenote on the WR depth, there were 18 WRs ranked int ESPN's top 100 players w/15 in the top 83. I don't know how that compares to previous years but it just seems like alot. I spent some time earlier looking at who the better WR/QB/TE are and kind of where they're expected to get drafted and plan on doing the same with the OL at some point, all I know is there's going to be a ton of the best defensive players falling just due to the QB/WR/OL positions expected to get drafted early and often.

    Here's the ESPN draft link for anyone wanting to check it out.
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable

  • Options
    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 19, 2024 4:41PM

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    With 5 weeks still to go before the draft starts we're probably going to see the next 4 best Qbs slip into the back end of round one by then.

    Lol I know youre just joking but honestly there is a chance that could happen with Rattler or Milton. Rattler was the preseason Heisman favorite after his freshman year before losing his job to Caleb at Oklahoma and transferring to South Carolina. South Carolina was better than they had any business being with him and any given week he can look like he should be the first overall pick, but theres also weeks where you wonder how hes even on the field.

    Milton has the best arm in the draft and would be one of the strongest in the NFL, he just has Ricky Vaughn tendencies from major league where lets just say his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. Then again Richardson went 4th overall and he was the most inaccurate passer in all of Division 1 college football when his target was open by 5 yards or more costing Florida at minimum 2 wins and more like 3 or 4.

    Crazier things have happened especially if someone really is going to be dumb enough to take McCarthy high in the first round.

    This is what I actually want from NE, move back, stockpile picks and draft as much offensive talent as possible. Then draft, I'd say a midround QB but today's topic is about all of these midround QBs going much higher than expected. If they're going to draft a QB to sit and develop then make it someone in the range of rounds 3-5 and actually have him sit for a year while Brissett/Zappe start in 2024.
    Then heading into next offseason, your 2024 Qb has spent a year learning the ropes and is likely ready to start and you've already added legit talent at both the WR & Oline from the 2024 draft after trading back, you'll only be adding to it going into the 2025 draft. You might even have that extra 2025 1st if it was a deal with the Vikings.

    I'm going to be so disappointed if they just take the QB lol.

    Its kind of hard to tell around now whats just click bait being put out there, whats just GM play "leaking" stories trying to get teams to panic and increase their offers etc. McCarthy really should be in that 3-5 range but if its true hes going to go that high I really have no idea whats going to happen and I might have to go find a casino and start putting some unders on win totals lol.

    Theres some other interesting options on the back end that havent been mentioned yet. Harman has a lower ceiling but he was a 5 year starter at Wake Forrest and had two very good years before finishing with a disappointing final year at Notre Dame.

    Slovis was very good his freshman year at USC and has injury issues. He eventually lost his job from injury and started dating a female soccer player at Pitt and transferred there where he wasnt great which isnt surprising given the talent level at Pitt and ended up finishing at BYU. He probably goes undrafted unless someone remembers the talent level and his freshman year and takes a shot late.

    Spencer Sanders is another. 4 year good starter at Oklahoma State and then in one of the dumbest decisions transferred to Ole Miss where he road the bench his final year behind Dart. I guess he expected Dart to go to the NFL or something but it was a weird move.

    Hes really not very good and should go undrafted but someone might take a chance on Jurkovec from Pitt loving that hes like 6'5 230.

    But yea the smart thing would be to move back. Really thats true for all the top 5 pick teams other than the Bears. Washington should be trying too but they wont. The fans are demanding a QB and the new owner would be putting himself in a bad spot if the first thing he did was trade the #2 pick when they already traded their QB. Pats probably take a QB unless they fleece someone and their initial ask talking to other teams at the senior bowl was extremely high. They may not like one of the QBs though and be more open to trading it depending on whose left there. Unless the Cards pull a Broncos they have their QB already and the Chargers certainly have theirs.

    I still have the ESPN draft positional rankings tab still open and looking at the QB's that you mentioned, some have grades considerably lower than top QBs. ESPN uses the 100pt system for their grades and this was the entire QB list:
    Caleb 96
    Daniels 95
    Maye 93
    McCarthy 90
    Nix 86
    Penix Jr 70
    Rattler 67
    Pratt 66
    Leary 57
    Milton lll 55
    Hartman 54
    Travis 49
    Slovis 43
    Bradley 38
    Reed 32

    Sidenote on the WR depth, there were 18 WRs ranked int ESPN's top 100 players w/15 in the top 83. I don't know how that compares to previous years but it just seems like alot. I spent some time earlier looking at who the better WR/QB/TE are and kind of where they're expected to get drafted and plan on doing the same with the OL at some point, all I know is there's going to be a ton of the best defensive players falling just due to the QB/WR/OL positions expected to get drafted early and often.

    Here's the ESPN draft link for anyone wanting to check it out.
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable

    Yea those were just guys that have shown promise, some were very highly rated at one point and could potentially be interesting. If were talking about 5 or 6 first round QBs though anything is possible at that point. That rating on Pratt is high. He didnt play in a power conference and while you get a Allen from Wyoming or Wentz from North Dakota State sometimes theyre almost always back ups at best. Id take a chance on Milton, Leary (if his arm strength is healing), or Travis who cant play this year over him. Maybe even Hartman. Slovis gets hurt every year basically so I'm not really willing to take any chances on him other than an undrafted contract

    The WR depth is very deep this year as well with a lot of difference makers. TEs will probably fall for the most part, Bowers is so much better than everyone else it makes the others look worse. The EDGE guys should still go high defensively and there should be 2 corners in the first round from Alabama and Penn State unless teams get scared off of the Alabama DB having foot surgery and he drops. Looks like ESPN likes Arnold over Kool-aide who was the one who had foot surgery so maybe 3 first round DBs unless teams go stupid on QBs but that seems like a lot.

  • Options
    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    With 5 weeks still to go before the draft starts we're probably going to see the next 4 best Qbs slip into the back end of round one by then.

    Lol I know youre just joking but honestly there is a chance that could happen with Rattler or Milton. Rattler was the preseason Heisman favorite after his freshman year before losing his job to Caleb at Oklahoma and transferring to South Carolina. South Carolina was better than they had any business being with him and any given week he can look like he should be the first overall pick, but theres also weeks where you wonder how hes even on the field.

    Milton has the best arm in the draft and would be one of the strongest in the NFL, he just has Ricky Vaughn tendencies from major league where lets just say his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. Then again Richardson went 4th overall and he was the most inaccurate passer in all of Division 1 college football when his target was open by 5 yards or more costing Florida at minimum 2 wins and more like 3 or 4.

    Crazier things have happened especially if someone really is going to be dumb enough to take McCarthy high in the first round.

    This is what I actually want from NE, move back, stockpile picks and draft as much offensive talent as possible. Then draft, I'd say a midround QB but today's topic is about all of these midround QBs going much higher than expected. If they're going to draft a QB to sit and develop then make it someone in the range of rounds 3-5 and actually have him sit for a year while Brissett/Zappe start in 2024.
    Then heading into next offseason, your 2024 Qb has spent a year learning the ropes and is likely ready to start and you've already added legit talent at both the WR & Oline from the 2024 draft after trading back, you'll only be adding to it going into the 2025 draft. You might even have that extra 2025 1st if it was a deal with the Vikings.

    I'm going to be so disappointed if they just take the QB lol.

    Its kind of hard to tell around now whats just click bait being put out there, whats just GM play "leaking" stories trying to get teams to panic and increase their offers etc. McCarthy really should be in that 3-5 range but if its true hes going to go that high I really have no idea whats going to happen and I might have to go find a casino and start putting some unders on win totals lol.

    Theres some other interesting options on the back end that havent been mentioned yet. Harman has a lower ceiling but he was a 5 year starter at Wake Forrest and had two very good years before finishing with a disappointing final year at Notre Dame.

    Slovis was very good his freshman year at USC and has injury issues. He eventually lost his job from injury and started dating a female soccer player at Pitt and transferred there where he wasnt great which isnt surprising given the talent level at Pitt and ended up finishing at BYU. He probably goes undrafted unless someone remembers the talent level and his freshman year and takes a shot late.

    Spencer Sanders is another. 4 year good starter at Oklahoma State and then in one of the dumbest decisions transferred to Ole Miss where he road the bench his final year behind Dart. I guess he expected Dart to go to the NFL or something but it was a weird move.

    Hes really not very good and should go undrafted but someone might take a chance on Jurkovec from Pitt loving that hes like 6'5 230.

    But yea the smart thing would be to move back. Really thats true for all the top 5 pick teams other than the Bears. Washington should be trying too but they wont. The fans are demanding a QB and the new owner would be putting himself in a bad spot if the first thing he did was trade the #2 pick when they already traded their QB. Pats probably take a QB unless they fleece someone and their initial ask talking to other teams at the senior bowl was extremely high. They may not like one of the QBs though and be more open to trading it depending on whose left there. Unless the Cards pull a Broncos they have their QB already and the Chargers certainly have theirs.

    I still have the ESPN draft positional rankings tab still open and looking at the QB's that you mentioned, some have grades considerably lower than top QBs. ESPN uses the 100pt system for their grades and this was the entire QB list:
    Caleb 96
    Daniels 95
    Maye 93
    McCarthy 90
    Nix 86
    Penix Jr 70
    Rattler 67
    Pratt 66
    Leary 57
    Milton lll 55
    Hartman 54
    Travis 49
    Slovis 43
    Bradley 38
    Reed 32

    Sidenote on the WR depth, there were 18 WRs ranked int ESPN's top 100 players w/15 in the top 83. I don't know how that compares to previous years but it just seems like alot. I spent some time earlier looking at who the better WR/QB/TE are and kind of where they're expected to get drafted and plan on doing the same with the OL at some point, all I know is there's going to be a ton of the best defensive players falling just due to the QB/WR/OL positions expected to get drafted early and often.

    Here's the ESPN draft link for anyone wanting to check it out.
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable

    Yea those were just guys that have shown promise, some were very highly rated at one point and could potentially be interesting. If were talking about 5 or 6 first round QBs though anything is possible at that point. That rating on Pratt is high. He didnt play in a power conference and while you get a Allen from Wyoming or Wentz from North Dakota State sometimes theyre almost always back ups at best. Id take a chance on Milton, Leary (if his arm strength is healing), or Travis who cant play this year over him. Maybe even Hartman. Slovis gets hurt every year basically so I'm not really willing to take any chances on him other than an undrafted contract

    The WR depth is very deep this year as well with a lot of difference makers. TEs will probably fall for the most part, Bowers is so much better than everyone else it makes the others look worse. The EDGE guys should still go high defensively and there should be 2 corners in the first round from Alabama and Penn State unless teams get scared off of the Alabama DB having foot surgery and he drops. Looks like ESPN likes Arnold over Kool-aide who was the one who had foot surgery so maybe 3 first round DBs unless teams go stupid on QBs but that seems like a lot.

    While WRs are a must for the Pats, preferably more than one, I wouldn't mind seeing a 2nd starting caliber TE get picked to pair with Hunter Henry.
    Some of the best offensive units during Brady's NE days were when they had a Gronk/Hernandez tandem before Aaron went totes cray cray. Even that one season of Gronk & Martellus Bennett was fun to watch.

    I'm not too familiar with the defensive side of this draft but there's plenty of time to read up on it before draft day.

  • Options
    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:

    @perkdog said:

    @erikthredd said:
    Now ESPN and Mel Kiper are hyping 5 QBs in the top 12 picks. 🤣

    Yep, Bo Nix,Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy will all go way earlier than they should I bet

    With 5 weeks still to go before the draft starts we're probably going to see the next 4 best Qbs slip into the back end of round one by then.

    Lol I know youre just joking but honestly there is a chance that could happen with Rattler or Milton. Rattler was the preseason Heisman favorite after his freshman year before losing his job to Caleb at Oklahoma and transferring to South Carolina. South Carolina was better than they had any business being with him and any given week he can look like he should be the first overall pick, but theres also weeks where you wonder how hes even on the field.

    Milton has the best arm in the draft and would be one of the strongest in the NFL, he just has Ricky Vaughn tendencies from major league where lets just say his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. Then again Richardson went 4th overall and he was the most inaccurate passer in all of Division 1 college football when his target was open by 5 yards or more costing Florida at minimum 2 wins and more like 3 or 4.

    Crazier things have happened especially if someone really is going to be dumb enough to take McCarthy high in the first round.

    This is what I actually want from NE, move back, stockpile picks and draft as much offensive talent as possible. Then draft, I'd say a midround QB but today's topic is about all of these midround QBs going much higher than expected. If they're going to draft a QB to sit and develop then make it someone in the range of rounds 3-5 and actually have him sit for a year while Brissett/Zappe start in 2024.
    Then heading into next offseason, your 2024 Qb has spent a year learning the ropes and is likely ready to start and you've already added legit talent at both the WR & Oline from the 2024 draft after trading back, you'll only be adding to it going into the 2025 draft. You might even have that extra 2025 1st if it was a deal with the Vikings.

    I'm going to be so disappointed if they just take the QB lol.

    Its kind of hard to tell around now whats just click bait being put out there, whats just GM play "leaking" stories trying to get teams to panic and increase their offers etc. McCarthy really should be in that 3-5 range but if its true hes going to go that high I really have no idea whats going to happen and I might have to go find a casino and start putting some unders on win totals lol.

    Theres some other interesting options on the back end that havent been mentioned yet. Harman has a lower ceiling but he was a 5 year starter at Wake Forrest and had two very good years before finishing with a disappointing final year at Notre Dame.

    Slovis was very good his freshman year at USC and has injury issues. He eventually lost his job from injury and started dating a female soccer player at Pitt and transferred there where he wasnt great which isnt surprising given the talent level at Pitt and ended up finishing at BYU. He probably goes undrafted unless someone remembers the talent level and his freshman year and takes a shot late.

    Spencer Sanders is another. 4 year good starter at Oklahoma State and then in one of the dumbest decisions transferred to Ole Miss where he road the bench his final year behind Dart. I guess he expected Dart to go to the NFL or something but it was a weird move.

    Hes really not very good and should go undrafted but someone might take a chance on Jurkovec from Pitt loving that hes like 6'5 230.

    But yea the smart thing would be to move back. Really thats true for all the top 5 pick teams other than the Bears. Washington should be trying too but they wont. The fans are demanding a QB and the new owner would be putting himself in a bad spot if the first thing he did was trade the #2 pick when they already traded their QB. Pats probably take a QB unless they fleece someone and their initial ask talking to other teams at the senior bowl was extremely high. They may not like one of the QBs though and be more open to trading it depending on whose left there. Unless the Cards pull a Broncos they have their QB already and the Chargers certainly have theirs.

    I still have the ESPN draft positional rankings tab still open and looking at the QB's that you mentioned, some have grades considerably lower than top QBs. ESPN uses the 100pt system for their grades and this was the entire QB list:
    Caleb 96
    Daniels 95
    Maye 93
    McCarthy 90
    Nix 86
    Penix Jr 70
    Rattler 67
    Pratt 66
    Leary 57
    Milton lll 55
    Hartman 54
    Travis 49
    Slovis 43
    Bradley 38
    Reed 32

    Sidenote on the WR depth, there were 18 WRs ranked int ESPN's top 100 players w/15 in the top 83. I don't know how that compares to previous years but it just seems like alot. I spent some time earlier looking at who the better WR/QB/TE are and kind of where they're expected to get drafted and plan on doing the same with the OL at some point, all I know is there's going to be a ton of the best defensive players falling just due to the QB/WR/OL positions expected to get drafted early and often.

    Here's the ESPN draft link for anyone wanting to check it out.
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable

    Yea those were just guys that have shown promise, some were very highly rated at one point and could potentially be interesting. If were talking about 5 or 6 first round QBs though anything is possible at that point. That rating on Pratt is high. He didnt play in a power conference and while you get a Allen from Wyoming or Wentz from North Dakota State sometimes theyre almost always back ups at best. Id take a chance on Milton, Leary (if his arm strength is healing), or Travis who cant play this year over him. Maybe even Hartman. Slovis gets hurt every year basically so I'm not really willing to take any chances on him other than an undrafted contract

    The WR depth is very deep this year as well with a lot of difference makers. TEs will probably fall for the most part, Bowers is so much better than everyone else it makes the others look worse. The EDGE guys should still go high defensively and there should be 2 corners in the first round from Alabama and Penn State unless teams get scared off of the Alabama DB having foot surgery and he drops. Looks like ESPN likes Arnold over Kool-aide who was the one who had foot surgery so maybe 3 first round DBs unless teams go stupid on QBs but that seems like a lot.

    While WRs are a must for the Pats, preferably more than one, I wouldn't mind seeing a 2nd starting caliber TE get picked to pair with Hunter Henry.
    Some of the best offensive units during Brady's NE days were when they had a Gronk/Hernandez tandem before Aaron went totes cray cray. Even that one season of Gronk & Martellus Bennett was fun to watch.

    I'm not too familiar with the defensive side of this draft but there's plenty of time to read up on it before draft day.

    Theres a big gap between Bowers and the rest of the TEs, granted a good amount of that is just how good Bowers is. Theres some big boys behind that though including more than one that will be there later on thats 6'6 and even two that are 6'7. Turner, Verse and Latu will go early for the EDGE guys. Both Robinsons the one from Penn State and the one from Missouri should as well. Robinson from Missouri might be a real issue, hes a bit raw but hes a 6'5 something like 295 dude that can just bum rush people and is faster than he should be at his size. Dallas Turner is going in the first for sure and will be the first off the board, Verse should be in the first as well and scouts love Latu too but hes had some neck issues in the past.

    For the Pats offense those guys help in the sense that some WRs will get pushed down especially if teams are reaching on QBs.

    This is one of those drafts thats hard to predict based off what teams are going to do on the QB front. Theres enough QBs that teams are rumored to be interested in higher than they should be that could push some of these WRs and EDGE guys lower than they should have been

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    perkdogperkdog Posts: 29,523 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I can say I just don't think the Cards and MHJ will be a good marriage to the point that if I'm MHJ I'm telling my agent I don't want to go to AZ.

    Besides the Pats I can't think of a worse place for a rookie WR to go than to AZ

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    Right now if the Vikings really are set on trading up for a QB AZ or Chargers do seem like a more likely trade partner than NE. When the Vikings asked about a trade at the senior bowl the Pats price was an insane one that was on the level of the Ditka Williams trade.

    Vikings would probably be more than content with Nix if it saves them a first rounder since the Pats initial response was something like 3 first rounders and some 2nds. As long as Jefferson and Addison are there theres a number of QBs in this draft that can be successful there and they shouldnt feel the need to be desperate and let someone rip them off

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 20, 2024 3:06PM

    @Basebal21 said:
    Right now if the Vikings really are set on trading up for a QB AZ or Chargers do seem like a more likely trade partner than NE. When the Vikings asked about a trade at the senior bowl the Pats price was an insane one that was on the level of the Ditka Williams trade.

    Vikings would probably be more than content with Nix if it saves them a first rounder since the Pats initial response was something like 3 first rounders and some 2nds. As long as Jefferson and Addison are there theres a number of QBs in this draft that can be successful there and they shouldnt feel the need to be desperate and let someone rip them off

    At that time, the Vikings were holding just the #11 pick and hadn't traded for#23 yet, which IIRC that trade came about a month later. Trying to move from 11 to 3 while holding just one current 1st rounder was always going to get expensive for the Vikings, now less so when they own 11 & 23.

    We've already seen what the most recent comp is to go from that 11-12 range upt top the top 3 when SF moved up in 2021 for Trey Lance. These were the trade details:
    SF got #3
    Miami got...
    2021 #12
    2022 1st
    2022 3rd
    2023 1st

    That all being said, who knows what reports are actually true and which ones aren't? NE may have started their negotiations high while Minnesota could have been lowballing the crap out of it. That tends to be normal when starting trade talks.

    With each spot higher that the Vikings try getting to,sure its more expensive, but you have one more option of talented players to choose from so there are benefits in choosing either route.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:
    Right now if the Vikings really are set on trading up for a QB AZ or Chargers do seem like a more likely trade partner than NE. When the Vikings asked about a trade at the senior bowl the Pats price was an insane one that was on the level of the Ditka Williams trade.

    Vikings would probably be more than content with Nix if it saves them a first rounder since the Pats initial response was something like 3 first rounders and some 2nds. As long as Jefferson and Addison are there theres a number of QBs in this draft that can be successful there and they shouldnt feel the need to be desperate and let someone rip them off

    At that time, the Vikings were holding just the #11 pick and hadn't traded for#23 yet, which IIRC that trade came about a month later. Trying to move from 11 to 3 while holding just one current 1st rounder was always going to get expensive for the Vikings, now less so when they own 11 & 23.

    We've already seen what the most recent comp is to go from that 11-12 range upt top the top 3 when SF moved up in 2021 for Trey Lance. These were the trade details:
    SF got #3
    Miami got...
    2021 #12
    2022 1st
    2022 3rd
    2023 1st

    That all being said, who knows what reports are actually true and which ones aren't? NE may have started their negotiations high while Minnesota could have been lowballing the crap out of it. That tends to be normal when starting trade talks.

    With each spot higher that the Vikings try getting to,sure its more expensive, but you have one more option of talented players to choose from so there are benefits in choosing either route.

    The Giants are already meeting with Maye and McCarthy doing Giants things. No reason to get in a bidding war with them for the 3rd pick if tyoure the Vikings and they want to chase Maye. Minnesota doesnt pick again until 108, they can just stay at 11 and get like Pennix which would be a reach but throws a good deep ball and let Jefferson and Addison go get it then use the 23 for even a Worthy or something like that and be an absolute nightmare to cover. It doesnt make sense to give up two firsts, next years first and 2nd, and something after that which was the ask.

    Not to mention this years firsts have more value than most years. It wouldnt be the end of the world anyways if it didnt work out this year for the Vikings. Theres no less than 3 big QBs coming next year as well. Sanders would have been in this draft but stayed because Deion told him to stay and help him win, Ewers wanted a shot at being the first overall next year, and Beck at GA. They all stayed in college for a combination of how deep this class is and how much theyre making in NIL.

    The Vikings already dont have a second round pick next year and if they just decimate 3 years of draft classes to move up 8 spots thats going to do more harm than good

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I just think until we see an actual trade made regarding these top 10 picks its pretty much all fluff. I'll still read all of it because I'm a sucker for this stuff but we know that most of this stuff is just BS clickbait.

    Team X is interested in this QB and that QB of course they are when they only have a journeyman backup currently on their roster lol. So many teams want one of those top 3-4 Qbs but are they willing to pay the price to get them? We're likely not going to find out until the night of 4/26.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    Yea a lot of it is clickbait and trying to run up prices. The Pats asking price came from a college scouting that wont get a ton of clicks for just making something up like that like a major news source would. Its was like the two teams feeling each other out spy style. Whether or not they drop that price who knows.

    Either way I think the Vikings would be better off just staying where they are. Giants seem to be ready for a new QB and maybe they take one and sit him for a year since Jones costs basically nothing to cut next year but they may just be happy getting a WR and waiting till next year. If you look at the order, Bears first pick and Washington will take a QB. Pats probably but not set in stone. Arizona and Chargers should be a no unless they trade their QBs. Giants maybe and if they really do want McCarthy there have at it. Then you have Titans, Falcons, 2nd Bears pick, and Jets which will all be a no for QBs. Vikings should have basically the same options at 11 as they would have at 4 in terms of QBs and theyd still have their picks

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I just got done listening to a Pats podcast that was posted earlier today that had on a guy that covers the Vikings for the Athletic and he was really playing up the Drake Maye/Josh McCown relationship, saying that Maye & McCown's kids are very close too. He made it seem like they're going hard after Maye when for all we know its all fluff and the Vikings could just be interested in someone else.

    There's been nonstop talk up here about dealing with the Vikings but almost nothing about the Giants having an interest in Maye.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    Im sure theyd love to have Maye, but they dont have a 2nd round pick this year or next year either already. Getting rid of 3 firsts for one back and who knows what else 3 years from now to move up 8 spots just doesnt make sense. Ask the Panthers how well thats worked out having no top picks.

    I guess if theyve decided they have like 1 or 2 years to win and the future doesnt matter but if they go at minimum back to back years with 1 first round pick and 0 second round picks in both drafts combined they will regret it. Someone in the front office must be on the hot seat if theyre even thinking of doing that

    Giants brought Maye and McCarthy in for face to face meetings with various staff and scouts last week

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    spacehaydukespacehayduke Posts: 5,476 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I ask the question is there any qb in this draft that is clearly capable of taking a team to a SB win like a Manning or another elite level qb did in the past? I don't think so. 4 to 6 qb's are projected to be in the first round including the usual suspects in 1-3 (Williams, Maye, Daniels), then possible 1rst rounders are McCarthy, Penix, Nix. I can't see any of the 6 leading their team to the promised land unless the team has SB talent at alot of other positions. So this is an average class at best. I would love to say Nix is in their with Herbert and Fouts for Duck qb's but he will end up something like a Mariota, serviceable, 2nd tier and some success if on the right team. But that goes for all 6, McCarthy probably has the best chance.

    Keep this in mind:

    "Since 1998, 36 quarterbacks have been drafted in the top five. Only Peyton (1999, No. 1) and Eli (2004, No. 1) won Super Bowls with the team that drafted them.

    Only seven -- the Mannings, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Donovan McNabb -- have even gotten to the Super Bowl with their original team,.(Matthew Stafford went and won with the Rams after being traded by the Lions.) And only two players of the 36 quarterbacks selected even won a conference championship if they weren’t the No. 1 overall pick: Ryan (2008, No. 3) and McNabb (1999, No. 2).

    To put an even finer point on it, one guy since the turn of the century has been drafted in the top five and won a Super Bowl (Eli). One guy taken in the top five who wasn’t the No. 1 overall pick has even made it to the Super Bowl (Ryan)."

    From: https://sports.yahoo.com/patriots-study-history-top-3-153515453.html

    So it is a total crap shoot, elite talent is not the complete part of the equation. Infrastructure, coaching, and surrounding talent on the team the qb is going to also matters. Very very few just seem to succeed based on being highest ranked on draft day.


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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    Eli was drafted by the Chargers not the Giants

    QBs dont put a team on their back and take them to the Superbowl without having many other studs on their teams. Manning had not only studs but hall of famers on both sides of the ball in Indy and then Denver carried him to his second SB. Brady had talent all over, Mahomes may have a below average WR core right now but he has had elite ones and KC still has studs all over the field on both sides of the ball just like every SB winning team has had.

    The closest weve ever seen to a QB putting a team on his back and winning a title was Cam Newton at Auburn and even they had a very very good defense. Its simply not possible to win or get to a SB in the NFL without a ton of talent on both sides of the ball.

    If the measure is can a QB carry a team on his back then every QB draft class in history is average at best because the answer is no. This class is not average at best. The top 3 are very good and who ever goes to the Vikings should be good as long as their WR core is together all you have to do is let Jefferson and Addison do their thing. I really really hope its not McCarthy Im sick of hearing how hes good and he probably would be there just as most QBs would.

    The reason why so many of the top QBs never make a SB with the team that drafted them is because the team that drafted them was able to do so because they were one of the worst teams in the league or they sold the farm to trade up for them. The Bears are not in that spot this year and werent all the bad. If the number 1 fails with the Bears with their unique spot this year they either took the wrong guy or something is seriously wrong Cleveland style.

    This is one of the most talented QB classes in a long long time. Whether or not they succeed having to go to bad spots other than the Bears and maybe the Vikings we will see, but they are more talented than many past drafts

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    >

    This is one of the most talented QB classes in a long long time. Whether or not they succeed having to go to bad spots other than the Bears and maybe the Vikings we will see, but they are more talented than many past drafts

    The 2021 draft was just as deep as this one and had more QBs graded out at 6.00 or higher. My initial idea with this thread was originally to compare the 2021 & 2024 QB classes. I did my draft grade cutoff at 5.50 above but here's what I found for overall quarterbacks in these two drafts...
    2021
    Drafted
    Trevor Lawrence 7.40
    Zack Wilson 6.50
    Trey Lance 6.47
    Justin Fields 6.45
    Mac Jones 6.33
    Kyle Trask 6.19
    Kellen Mond 6.12
    Davis Mills 6.14
    Sam Ehlinger 5.88
    Undrafted
    Jamie Newman 5.80
    Shane Buechelle 5.50
    Peyton Ramsey 5.56
    KJ Costello 5.50
    Zack Smith 5.50
    There were other Qbs eligible for this draft but NFLN didn't give them a draft profile if the grade was under 5.50.

    2024
    Caleb Williams 6.74
    Jayden Daniels 6.73
    Drake Maye 6.50
    JJ McCarthy 6.40
    Bo Nix 6.39
    Michael Penix Jr 6.25
    Spencer Rattler 5.95
    Jordan Travis 5.89
    Michael Pratt 5.84
    Devin Leary 5.84
    Joe Milton lll 5.80
    Sam Hartman 5.69
    Kedon Slovis 5.67
    Carter Bradley 5.60
    Taulia Tagovailoa 5.60
    Austin Reed 5.62
    There are more QBs eligible for this 2024 draft but they also fall under that 5.50 grade range.

    From what I've learned in researching all of the drafts for this thread, if you're draft grade was under 5.50 you basically had little chance of getting drafted and if you were,you weren't making any type of impact in the NFL. There wasn't a single noteworthy player from that 5.50 & under grade grouping.

    The next question is, which Qb class is better, 2021 or 2024?

    2021 had 5 1st round QBs. 2024 is expected to have 5 maybe 6 1st round QBs.
    2021 had 14 players grade out at 5.50 or better. 2024 has 16.
    2021 had 9 QBs drafted. 2024 is TBD,

    I know its easy to point out how bad WIlson,Lance,Fields & Mac has looked over their first three seasons but there's a real possibility that we could be saying the same with 4 out of the top 5 in this 2024 draft.

    There's plenty of upside with the 2024 top 6 but the same was said about that top 5 in 2021 and looking at the teams projected to draft QB,as of right now they have a ton of holes on offense.
    Chicago - a team noted for their lack of ability to develop QBs, have made an effort to add decent playmakers.
    Washington - bad offense w/average passing targets
    New England - bad offense w/zero passing targets
    NYG - bad offense who just lost their main offensive weapon in Saquon.
    Minnesota - the best situation for a rookie QB to fall into from this group. JJ/TJ/Addison is as good as any top 3 in football.
    Denver - bad offense w/basically just Courtland Sutton to throw to.
    Las Vegas - bad offense but Davante Adams & Jakobi Meyers are a solid 1-2 punch.

    All that I'm trying to say is there are no guarantees that this 2024 QB class will considered a success and 3-4 years from now we could be talking about QBs A.B & C getting replaced in the next draft.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    >

    This is one of the most talented QB classes in a long long time. Whether or not they succeed having to go to bad spots other than the Bears and maybe the Vikings we will see, but they are more talented than many past drafts

    The 2021 draft was just as deep as this one and had more QBs graded out at 6.00 or higher. My initial idea with this thread was originally to compare the 2021 & 2024 QB classes. I did my draft grade cutoff at 5.50 above but here's what I found for overall quarterbacks in these two drafts...
    2021
    Drafted
    Trevor Lawrence 7.40
    Zack Wilson 6.50
    Trey Lance 6.47
    Justin Fields 6.45
    Mac Jones 6.33
    Kyle Trask 6.19
    Kellen Mond 6.12
    Davis Mills 6.14
    Sam Ehlinger 5.88
    Undrafted
    Jamie Newman 5.80
    Shane Buechelle 5.50
    Peyton Ramsey 5.56
    KJ Costello 5.50
    Zack Smith 5.50
    There were other Qbs eligible for this draft but NFLN didn't give them a draft profile if the grade was under 5.50.

    2024
    Caleb Williams 6.74
    Jayden Daniels 6.73
    Drake Maye 6.50
    JJ McCarthy 6.40
    Bo Nix 6.39
    Michael Penix Jr 6.25
    Spencer Rattler 5.95
    Jordan Travis 5.89
    Michael Pratt 5.84
    Devin Leary 5.84
    Joe Milton lll 5.80
    Sam Hartman 5.69
    Kedon Slovis 5.67
    Carter Bradley 5.60
    Taulia Tagovailoa 5.60
    Austin Reed 5.62
    There are more QBs eligible for this 2024 draft but they also fall under that 5.50 grade range.

    From what I've learned in researching all of the drafts for this thread, if you're draft grade was under 5.50 you basically had little chance of getting drafted and if you were,you weren't making any type of impact in the NFL. There wasn't a single noteworthy player from that 5.50 & under grade grouping.

    The next question is, which Qb class is better, 2021 or 2024?

    2021 had 5 1st round QBs. 2024 is expected to have 5 maybe 6 1st round QBs.
    2021 had 14 players grade out at 5.50 or better. 2024 has 16.
    2021 had 9 QBs drafted. 2024 is TBD,

    I know its easy to point out how bad WIlson,Lance,Fields & Mac has looked over their first three seasons but there's a real possibility that we could be saying the same with 4 out of the top 5 in this 2024 draft.

    There's plenty of upside with the 2024 top 6 but the same was said about that top 5 in 2021 and looking at the teams projected to draft QB,as of right now they have a ton of holes on offense.
    Chicago - a team noted for their lack of ability to develop QBs, have made an effort to add decent playmakers.
    Washington - bad offense w/average passing targets
    New England - bad offense w/zero passing targets
    NYG - bad offense who just lost their main offensive weapon in Saquon.
    Minnesota - the best situation for a rookie QB to fall into from this group. JJ/TJ/Addison is as good as any top 3 in football.
    Denver - bad offense w/basically just Courtland Sutton to throw to.
    Las Vegas - bad offense but Davante Adams & Jakobi Meyers are a solid 1-2 punch.

    All that I'm trying to say is there are no guarantees that this 2024 QB class will considered a success and 3-4 years from now we could be talking about QBs A.B & C getting replaced in the next draft.

    Success and talent levels are very different. I wouldnt be excited to be going to Washington or NE if I was a QB, Bears or Vikings though I would like my chances.

    The 2021 class really wasnt very talented despite the ratings. The "best guys of the year" will get good ratings. We all know what was going on during that 2020 season and it was a weak class which the college guys all knew but NFL teams are expected to take a QB if they need one. I wont get into Mac since it always gets into into Patriots fan stuff, but go look at 2020 Alabama's roster.

    Trey Lance was from North Dakota State where Wentz went, there was some of the lets be cute and find a gem in the rough stuff with him, Wilson to be fair went to the Jets where every QB fails like the Browns until proven otherwise. Theres a reason why some of these teams have been looking for a QB for a decade or more. That said Wilson from BYU another non power conference team at the time didnt play a single power conference team that year and that matters a lot. At best he was unproven and before the transfer portal and NIL which spreads out talent more came about it really mattered and there was a big talent gap between the power teams

    Fields struggled against Clemson which was the best team they played and had injury issues. OSU QBs have been bad in the NFL because for years they always have loaded offenses that are just flat out better than the other B!G players they are facing. Trask was okay but nothing special.

    In terms of players getting drafted that year it was basically Lawrence or youre better off just moving down but teams dont do that if your job is on the line or fan bases are demanding a QB. That year was a great example of a reach year

    This year is without question more talented than the 2021. Even though some will fail it doesnt mean that they werent more talented. Flacco isnt a better QB than Marino just because he has a SB and Marino doesnt. McCarthy isnt a better QB than Daniels because Michigan won the national title and LSU only lost 3 games despite having the 99th ranked defense in division 1 football that was so bad the entire defensive staff was fired after the season. Manning and Eli both won SBs in years they were flat out bad as some examples

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 24, 2024 4:32PM

    I don't know, I just read your entire comment and you could have switched out every name/school with 2024 QBs and it all sounds the same. I know that you're very high on this draft class but the hype going into 2021 was just as high as 2024 and no matter how you want to spin it doesn't really change that.

    Your best guys of the year will get good ratings remark could easily be tied into Daniels,Maye,McCarthy,Penix & Nix this time around. Again,you have your opinions on each draft but they're not much different than what we heard when those '21 picks were being made. Maybe some Qb after the top 6 turns into a Brissett/Minshew/Howell type where they're end up as a backup somewhere and maybe get a season or two to start at some point but the majority of this 2024 QB class will be forgotten once the draft has ended.

    I remember heading into the 2021 draft very well because NE had #15 and there was talk of possibly trading up for Fields or Mac, luckily for NE they didn't have to give up additional picks and still got one of those QBs. Not that it really matters now.

    Ultimately,i'd prefer a trade at 3 but if they stayed I'd prefer Daniels then Maye and I'm not sold on either regardless of NE's offense as a whole. Everyone says take the Qb and let him sit but they rarely happens when too many jobs are on the line to waste a season from a top 3 pick.

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If a team is drafting a QB that high and doesn't think that he's good enough to start right away then just pass on the guy and go for a different position that could make an immediate high end impact.

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    Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭✭

    @erikthredd said:
    I don't know, I just read your entire comment and you could have switched out every name/school with 2024 QBs and it all sounds the same. I know that you're very high on this draft class but the hype going into 2021 was just as high as 2024 and no matter how you want to spin it doesn't really change that.

    Your best guys of the year will get good ratings remark could easily be tied into Daniels,Maye,McCarthy,Penix & Nix this time around. Again,you have your opinions on each draft but they're not much different than what we heard when those '21 picks were being made. Maybe some Qb after the top 6 turns into a Brissett/Minshew/Howell type where they're end up as a backup somewhere and maybe get a season or two to start at some point but the majority of this 2024 QB class will be forgotten once the draft has ended.

    I remember heading into the 2021 draft very well because NE had #15 and there was talk of possibly trading up for Fields or Mac, luckily for NE they didn't have to give up additional picks and still got one of those QBs. Not that it really matters now.

    Ultimately,i'd prefer a trade at 3 but if they stayed I'd prefer Daniels then Maye and I'm not sold on either regardless of NE's offense as a whole. Everyone says take the Qb and let him sit but they rarely happens when too many jobs are on the line to waste a season from a top 3 pick.

    Not talent wise. Maybe NFL only people were just as high on 2021 with two of the top 3 being non power conference guys, but college guys and college recruiting rankings etc definitely were not.

    McCarthy is definitely getting benefits of hyping up a QBs record not what he did. If hes so great why was he a game manager at Michigan and why was he not allowed to throw the ball against Penn State?

    The majority of every QB class is forgotten. Theres only so many starting spots and a number of them are set in stone barring injury with massive contracts which Denver is the only team that has so far showed a willingness to eat.

    Lets put it this way. If you take the 2021 first round QBs of Lawrence, Lance, Wilson, Fields, and Jones Lawrence is the only one that would be assured to be a first rounder at the top of the draft in this class. Theres no chance Wilson and Lance would get drafted in the top 5 or even top 10 and Jones wouldnt have been a first rounder. Wilson and especially Lance Likely wouldnt have even been first rounders either, Fields would have been middle to late first at best.

    Caleb Daniels and Maye would have all been drafted before the 2nd QB was drafted from the 2021 class and maybe even Nix as well at which point you start running out of teams willing to use a first rounder on a QB.

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    erikthredderikthredd Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    @erikthredd said:
    I don't know, I just read your entire comment and you could have switched out every name/school with 2024 QBs and it all sounds the same. I know that you're very high on this draft class but the hype going into 2021 was just as high as 2024 and no matter how you want to spin it doesn't really change that.

    Your best guys of the year will get good ratings remark could easily be tied into Daniels,Maye,McCarthy,Penix & Nix this time around. Again,you have your opinions on each draft but they're not much different than what we heard when those '21 picks were being made. Maybe some Qb after the top 6 turns into a Brissett/Minshew/Howell type where they're end up as a backup somewhere and maybe get a season or two to start at some point but the majority of this 2024 QB class will be forgotten once the draft has ended.

    I remember heading into the 2021 draft very well because NE had #15 and there was talk of possibly trading up for Fields or Mac, luckily for NE they didn't have to give up additional picks and still got one of those QBs. Not that it really matters now.

    Ultimately,i'd prefer a trade at 3 but if they stayed I'd prefer Daniels then Maye and I'm not sold on either regardless of NE's offense as a whole. Everyone says take the Qb and let him sit but they rarely happens when too many jobs are on the line to waste a season from a top 3 pick.

    Not talent wise. Maybe NFL only people were just as high on 2021 with two of the top 3 being non power conference guys, but college guys and college recruiting rankings etc definitely were not.

    I'm only interested in opinions from the NFL people and not really from the college guys and their rankings at all. Their viewpoint will always be skewed towards the college level while the NFL,at this pont, its all about how they'll project in the near future.

    The majority of every QB class is forgotten. Theres only so many starting spots and a number of them are set in stone barring injury with massive contracts which Denver is the only team that has so far showed a willingness to eat.

    Which is why its safe to say just cutoff most of the QB list every year because the majority of eligible QBs have a very rare chance at getting drafted and even less lasting long enough for a PS invite.

    Lets put it this way. If you take the 2021 first round QBs of Lawrence, Lance, Wilson, Fields, and Jones Lawrence is the only one that would be assured to be a first rounder at the top of the draft in this class. Theres no chance Wilson and Lance would get drafted in the top 5 or even top 10 and Jones wouldnt have been a first rounder. Wilson and especially Lance Likely wouldnt have even been first rounders either, Fields would have been middle to late first at best.

    That would be monday morning QB at its finest when the book has already been written for those four QBs and how their first story has alread ended and now they'll end up else where to resurrect their careers.

    Caleb Daniels and Maye would have all been drafted before the 2nd QB was drafted from the 2021 class and maybe even Nix as well at which point you start running out of teams willing to use a first rounder on a QB.

    Maybe,maybe not, nothing but assumption there.

    The 2024 could end up as the best QB class in NFL history, OR not. We'd get our first real answers by years 3-4 if teams decide to move on from their QB but even then they'll likely get the same chancers to start over anew in a different city.

    Until then, i'm sure all of the draft media will just keep hyping things to the moon like they do every year at this time.

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