The REAL Problem with Moderns.
cladking
Posts: 28,353 ✭✭✭✭✭
There's a simple reason that moderns are scarce and cheap: There simply is not enough supply for them to be promoted. This leaves the high end coins under intense demand because the existence of graded coins and registry sets are a sort of a "promotion". A few individual collectors compete to have the finest sets but the nearly equally scarce and desirable coins just a couple grades lower have no demand.
A "promotion" might consist of as little as the simple creation of a BU roll market or, more to the point, a market for Gem and nearly Gem singles. Just the existence of a marketer who lists buy and sell prices for these very inexpensive coins would spur the market by establishing a supply neither of which really exist now and by price discovery. What is a '92-P nickel worth today that isn't scratched up and is well made. There are thousands of collectors now but the market is a sort of wild west where everyone has to find a target and guess what it will take to corral it. Many collectors already know they just have to look through 10 or 12 '92 mint sets and they'll have a nice attractive specimen of the '92-P. But other dates are better sought in rolls or bought from a retailer at very high prices. And this is the problem, collectors have to figure this all out by themselves because price guides mean little. Also moderns are graded very similarly to older coins despite the fact that they don't have the same characteristics such as most being attractive right off the dies. The reality is that 98% of something like 1966 quarters were ugly when they were struck so the few that weren't scratched and gouged are STILL ugly.
This is the biggest impediment to collecting moderns. Collectors avoid trudging in terra incognita. They don't want to pay $100 for a coin that lists for $6 even if it is the going price. They are taken aback when they see very common coins selling for high prices.
So what is a nice attractive '92-P nickel really "worth"? What is a roll of these "worth" if there's a 75% chance there isn't a single nice coin in the entire roll? I doubt these questions can be answered outside of a promotion. If something doesn't give before too long we'll get to the point that there is no longer "raw material" for modern collectors and then they'll just have to trade among themselves. This would be a shame because this system is highly inefficient and wastes resources.
Comments
Without disputing your analysis, I think that the problem with moderns is that they're modern.
When I started collecting coins in the early 1960s, earlier series were still in wide circulation. Heck, even Morgan and Peace dollars were still in circulation (especially in Nevada). To me, there was a mystique to these "old" coins (even if "old" was only 20 or 30 years old). Historically, series changed every 25 or 30 years, to a new design.
They've done minor reworking on modern series, but only minor. Most people alive today do not remember when you would get, e.g., a walking Liberty half dollar, in change at the grocery store. The coins people see essentially have not changed in their lifetime.
And I think that the fact that dimes and above were silver (or gold) adds to the mystique these days.
Perhaps part of the appeal of moderns, at least among young people, stems from the fact that they seldom see ANY coins.
Habituated as they are to making retail purchases via waving, swiping, or tapping a piece of plastic or their phone at checkout, ALL coins seem like museum items to them.
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There is little to no interest in the bland current designs. Bring back the classics to stir up interest again!
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Oh, please no.
The love for classics is for one reason, they are classics.
There are a lot of movies now (and TV shows) that have been remade and I can't think of a single example that are as good as the originals.
peacockcoins
If you want to create excitement for them then give them a throwback design, limit them to say <100k mintage, and release them ALL into general circulation.
There might not be enough supply of especially appealing moderns to promote them. But for the rest of them, I think it's inaccurate to state "There's a simple reason that moderns are scarce and cheap: There simply is not enough supply for them to be promoted."
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I do like (and will collect) clad coinage.
However, my preferred method of collecting these coins (whenever time allows me to do so [which is not often]) is to look at multiple raw examples of these coins (in rolls, in Mint Sets, in Proof Sets, in dealer stock at B&M shops and at coin shows) and find MS or PF or SP examples that are much nicer than what is "the norm". If I am lucky enough to come across a really nice example of such a raw coin I will buy it (most times at a very modest price). I then hold onto the raw coin and enjoy it.
I have submitted a few of such coins for grading and have been pleased with the results. Here are three clad quarters that I submitted. They all came back MS66, much to my satisfaction.
Who else collects clads in this manner?
The main problem is that they are often boring, sometimes repetitive (Do we really need another "best generation" commemorative) and sometimes PC. The women's quarters bore me to tears.
Coins hardly circulate any more, so they have no interesting historical aspects.
Many of us were collectors at the transition from silver to clad or soon after and lean towards pre65 and the classics of the 1800s. The value I find in moderns is the 70DCAMs that I can acquire with minimal expense to fulfill the required registry type set entries and maximize the set value calculations.
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The problem with moderns is that there is just an inadequate understanding of condition rarity and how that applies and more importantly, what that all means.
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Maybe it’s like what they say about artists. Their art often isn’t worth much til after they die. Maybe today’s moderns will be worth more if/when they stop producing them. Like when they start making them out of plastic or something, then people will start collecting clad coins more. 🤔
Mr_Spud
I'm not really sure I understand the OP. The problem with moderns is that they are generally so abundant that in any grade but the top grade they are worth less than the cost to have them graded and the only reason that the cheap slabs exist is because someone thought their coin was nicer than it was.
It's at least worth considering that there may not be enough DEMAND to be worth promoting...
Get them while you can..... They will be worth considerably more in fifty years. A good investment for your grandkids!
A lot of people buy them for like birth year.
You could be right. Physical currency will be phased out, it's inevitable. The question is, how much demand for old relics like coins will there be?
That said, it's possible that the graded modern coins you can buy now for $10-$20 may be worth many multiples in 50 years leading to a better ROI and some rarities.
They change the coins much too frequently now.
When I started collecting in 1957 the last peace dollar was a mere 22 years old. Today the Delaware quarter is older.
My problem with moderns is that, as a whole, they did rather poorly when I sold my type set. Stuff that I made money on was gold, early copper, larger denomination early type, and pre-64 silver toners.
Even really cool modern toned coins and near top-pop 20th Century clad type didn’t do so hot.
I really enjoyed collecting them, and owning them, but the exit strategy was bumpy.
When is a modern no longer a modern? How old does it have to be?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
There was a lengthy discussion of this topic in an older thread. Many felt the modern era began in 1965 when silver was eliminated from most circulating coins and clad coins became being used.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Modern coins cartoonishly designed with zero depth or artistic quality and engraved by computer have little appeal to me for anything other than spending.
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Is there any demand for the millions of Kennedy halves and $1 coins minted every year? Must be but I haven’t seen one in circulation in 20 years.
Could it be that you haven’t seen any is because their is demand for them and people are saving them?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Classics were once moderns and collectors then may have had a similar opinion as the OP.
Circulating designs do tend to the boring. And they are all so wordy. I personally like several of the states quarters and have even warmed up a little to the dime design. Time has a way of changing one's perspective.
I'm not so sure that the designs are a large influence on what people collect. Obviously collectors tend to avoid what they dislike but there's no accounting for taste. Most of the early designs hated at the time they were issued yet are widely collected today.
Certainly the PC has run rather thin. Great individuals like Harriet Tubman are only now being recognized while PC has reigned.
While new cents barely circulate and don't even get down to AU condition any longer and even nickels take years and years to get to XF there is still a lot of circulation and 1965 to '71 quarters actually circulated significantly more than the silver coins they replaced due to Gresham's Law. These quarters are not often seen in circulation any longer because attrition has been staggering. Clads were only designed to last 30 years and it's been ~60 years since the early coins were made. The survivors are in abysmal condition.
Your points are all valid enough but do not apply to all coins in circulation. Even where they do apply they do not apply equally.
I doubt even many modern collectors understand the rarity of even many of the coins in chBU. People tend to take what they see only at face value and when they see coins like nice attractive BU '92-P nickels available retail for only a dollar they simply think it must be a common coin. They can find one in a mint set for even less than a dollar. My contention is that if there were any substantial demand, even a very small mass market, they wouldn't see any 1992 mint sets and the Philly nickel in them would be ugly when they did find one. You can walk into any coin shop in the country and they won't sell any modern singles because of the lack of demand. If you ask for a specific coin they might have it in a mint set and if it didn't appear in one they won't have one. In 1957 dealers stocked everything and they still stock most of the pre-1965 coinage.
But "condition rarity" just might be what leads to price increases and more collecting. Many moderns were ugly coming off the press and getting scratches didn't help them. As more and more of the handful of collectors seek to upgrade their sets they'll bump heads at all the tough dates just as is happening with the '82-P quarter. One of the reasons this one is among the first is simply that a low proportion are nice attractive coins. There are many moderns that will prove to be tough in nice condition. If collectors prefer "gemmy" (nice high end MS-63 to low end MS-65) coins then there just isn't the kind of supply that people believe there is. Try to assemble your own roll of something like nice MS-64 1969 quarters with no ugly coins. There are very few around and these wouldn't be there if there were any sort of two way market in moderns.
I certainly don’t do the cupro nickel stuff or a lot of other mods but have done well retailing modern bullion coins like the Niue Star Wars Issues, etc. Modern US silver Commems (so much cheaper than generic US Classic common $) good sellers, affordable by the public coming in the bourse room bringing good retail sales too.
Yes as far as somebody slabbing a cupro nickel 50c MV coin - real stupid. But look at what the stupidos paid for some of the CACG sample coins ROFL.
I think we'll have a clear answer to this question only when the '65 coins begin being collected. We'll start calling the older coins something else like maybe "early clad" and use the term "modern" to apply to post-1998 or maybe post-2035 coinage.
I like clads more and more. Some of the quarters coming out are really interesting and I learn things about these women.
Ike dollars are my favorite. They are big coins and come in many colors. It is hard to find a clad PCGS MS68 Ike. Or a silver PCGS MS69 Ike. Its a short series with many registry sets so lots of pressure on the higher graded ones.
My point? This series would be a good place to start promoting clad coins. Ike was a great General and President. This is a doable set. Try putting together a seated liberty quarter set!
The only real problem is more coins than collectors. See U.S. mint for details.
Exactly. Moderns aren’t rare. They are only rare in top conditions. That is a key distinction. Classic coins of the 1800s, and some coins of the early 1900s, are rare in both numbers and condition. Their scarcity and the fact that they are unusual makes them interesting to a broad base of collectors. Many of them are also very attractive to look at. Moderns have several things working against them. First, they are not rare in numbers. Second, people are used to seeing them, so they aren’t unusual. Third, they aren’t very attractive visually to a lot of people.
I think these half dollars exist for much the same reason that the mint sets exist; they are available. Sure there's real demand from collectors to complete sets or search varieties, speculators seeking high grades, and some who just like to have "completeness" but like the mint sets in the old days they are very low priced.
There are several very interesting mint products sine 1998. There were several different ones before. If I were a young man I'd certainly be searching a lot of these products because survival rates of many of them will be quite low and they are interesting coins in their own right.
Ike singles in grades of MS-63 and over (TPG's would have to certify most 65 and better) probably is one of the easiest modern markets to establish bid and ask. Right now this would likely be $2.50 bid for common dates and $5.00 ask but this spread would quickly close. People would be amazed to see what a nice type I '76 in MS-64 would bid for after a couple years.
Markets for other denominations would be far tougher to establish but would likely follow. Nice chBU and gemmy moderns can be very elusive for many many dates.
If this statement were true then '82-P quarters that bid for under $6 would not be selling on eBay for $100.
Obviously there are lots more of most moderns than there are collectors. This can hardly be disputed. Despite the fact some of the coins are rare they still sell for pennies.
"Top condition" can be some pretty weak coins in some instances. Try finding a nice well made '84 cent with nice even surfaces, no carbon spots, and clean. I've been looking since 1984 and have never seen one that I'd call a full Gem. There are a few really nice ones and even PL's but most are bone ugly. They have rough uneven surfaces, marking, tarnish, and bad strikes. Many of them have all of these problems. Most of them were made with at least one of these flaws.
These were so badly made out of a highly volatile metal that most of the mintage has already disappeared. You can find BU rolls for as little as $8 each but many times every coin in the roll was not only ugly when it was made but now has zinc rot as well.
There are many reasons there are so few collectors that they are outnumbered by scarce coins.
If they were all selling for $100, then bid would be higher.
This is a typical eBay sale;
https://www.ebay.com/itm/225589946561?itmmeta=01HR09H8P0KXY3WT42NTQ6QNQD&hash=item34863568c1:g:bpcAAOSw6MFjX0pP
They are offering a nice original dog for $23. Once in a while a nice choice BU will be offered at near bid;
https://www.ebay.com/itm/375286740399?itmmeta=01HR09NC95NSNCG7B5KTX3CHB5&hash=item5760d535af:g:kTUAAOSwQxpl4o2V
But I doubt these coins last long. While this coin is chBU it is not an extremely attractive coin. Wholesalers will be happy to pay bid for it. Indeed, they'd accept a lot worse.
The wholesale price is so low because odds are good anyone paying bid is going to get a roll of dogs. This date doesn't come nice. The rolls that were set aside are often all poor coins; MS-60's. Many choice rolls were saved but these coins are less likely to survive in rolls. Many of the choice coins come from souvenir sets and privately produced sets.
The dogs are probably less common than the chBU but the bid price is for the dogs.
Let's face it, the days of coins are numbered. Due to inflation at some point the "great melt" will occur with modern clad coins just like it did with silver coins. At some point politicians will end the insanity of spending more than the face value of a coin to manufacture a coin and they'll either find a cheaper way to make coins or end it altogether. The mint may go on with novelty and bullion offerings, but nothing will circulate.
Inflation is making the entire currency system obsolete. 20 years ago I figured it could have happened by now but I'm guessing there's at least another 10 or 15 years until they pull the rug It could be a lot longer though. Essentially it will require that everyone has a phone and is hooked up to Bill Gates. If they tried eliminating currency now it would simply lead to a physical alternative like old silver dimes and quarters. People want money and without on line banking they will use alternatives.
The government hates money because they can't monitor it and taxing it is harder. They want to know every detail of the economy including what you buy and when you buy it.
For that reason, I think 90% silver coins will have a big resurgence as a physical alternative to the coming digital world but even the clad coinage that we feel now is worthless will be thought of as valuable when smelters will give you more than face value for your modern change.
The classic, original Beanie Babies still have value- even though they've dropped off 90% in the last decade.
The newer Beanie Babies are bought and sold by the pound. Pennies on the dollar- as no one really wants them.
I think of moderns the same way.
Collectors are drawn to classic coins- Mercury dimes, Buffalo nickels, Peace dollars- yet walk away from a clad quarter no matter kind of no matter what.
peacockcoins
Humans are complicated and not easy to figure out.
For some reason precious metal based coins are preferred over base metal coins.
Taking a poll on 10,000 people on the reason or reasons they have for this preference would result in many saying "the coins that have PRECIOUS metal in them are more valuable".
What makes such a metal "precious"? Is it because such a metal is a "store of value"?; or is it because such a metal is "pretty"; or is it because of simple inertia (gold, silver and platinum coins have been made for thousands of years and during that time people have simply become accustomed to thinking that these metals are more valuable that base metals; and they are not willing to change this point of view)?
Your thoughts please.
I'm wondering if something like this was meant to turn that modern problem around.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1101222/2004-d-high-low-leaf-wisconsin-quarters#latest
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Most of what people do individually and collectively is largely inertia. We maintain the same beliefs even over many centuries because it's easier. Even "money" itself has no value beyond what we assign to it. The more around and the more wasted the less we believe it is worth. Anything can be money as was proven when people in Zimbabwe refused the new inflation money issued by the government and continued to use the old 100,000,000,000,000,000 dollar notes!!! Gold has little practical value, or more accurately, exists in far larger quantities than is needed for practical value but is still over $2000 per ounce while silver that is much less readily available and needed to operate the economy goes for only a little more than 1% of gold. A scarce penny with wheat ears goes for 100 times an equally scarce penny with a memorial reverse, Science changes one funeral at a time because even paradigms (systems of experimental interpretation) become a matter of habit so old timers have to shuffle off before even the obvious can be recognized.
It should be noted that if your poll were 5000 old timers and 5000 young collectors you'd find the number of young collectors willing to collect clads is many multiples of the number of older people. I believe this assures the number of clad collectors will surge in the coming years. As rarities are identified higher prices will attract even more demand. This is because people buy high and sell low. We'd rather lose or fail in good company than win or succeed all alone.
Yes, people are funny creatures and quite different than all other life.
How many PCGS boxes would it take to store a set of MS 65 Lincoln Memorial cents? And how many of those coins are worth raw even 10% of what it would cost to slab them? Thanks, but no thanks!
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You don't need to even slab MS-65 memorial cents because they are out of the money. You could store about 20 complete sets in one box if they are in tubes. Most of the MS-65 memorials aren't too hard to find in MS-65 but a complete sets will be a challenge.
To me it's more the fact that the coins are so old rather than what they are composed of. IMO, it's way more fascinating to handle a 100+ year old coin than one that my parents may have spent in their youth. If the 100 year old coins were composed of pot metal, I don't think it would change my opinion.
ProofCollection.
You make an interesting point. As the years and decades go by coins that were part of the daily experience of a person fade into the past and become relics.
In another 41 years, the first clad coinage dated 1965 will turn 100 years old. Will persons in 2065 that have the "coin collecting " bug in them view clad coinage (which as you pointed out may no longer be used in daily life) as something of interest and worthy of collecting?
They will have the choice between collecting 1800s coins, early 1900s coins, pre-1965 silver coins, or the clad coins of the modern era. The choice doesn’t really change from what it is now.