Peru 1751-1772 1 Real PCGS population report?

TheGoonies1985

I was looking at their site a few minutes ago and I see none graded of this series (of any date). Am I wrong and looking at their site in the wrong area?

SimonW

You’re wrong

SimonW

Their population reports are weird…wish they’d do something about that, but they’re in there…you just gotta scroll to find them, and they’re not all together.

JohnnyCache

@PillarDollarCollector said:
I was looking at their site a few minutes ago and I see none graded of this series (of any date). Am I wrong and looking at their site in the wrong area?

JohnnyCache

Boosibri

NGC will have more graded but neither is a good representation of the real extant populations for obvious reasons.

WCC

NGC has a lot more proportionately graded but most of the low number of better coins known to me (from auction catalogs and Gilboy's reference) are not graded by either firm.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:
I was looking at their site a few minutes ago and I see none graded of this series (of any date). Am I wrong and looking at their site in the wrong area?

You're not going to find that many circulated coins in either service because while the number is low, the value reduces the incentive to grade it.

I've seen most of the better coins from both services for sale at one time or another and own quite a few.

From PCGS, I missed buying the 1758 MS-63. I've never seen the 1755 JM or 1760 MS63. The 1754 MS-64 is owned by a forum member and previously owned by another. I own the 1753 MS-62, 1759 MS-62, and 1763 MS-62. I've seen two of the 1756 at least (MS-63 and MS-64). Heritage sold the 1764 AU-58 in 2010, I'm quite sure I saw it, but cannot remember why I didn't buy it.

From NGC, another forum member owns the 1761 MS-66. I own at least one example of all the other dates in better AU or MS. I've seen others too but declined to buy it.

TheGoonies1985

Thanks fellas it is appreciated!!!

TheGoonies1985

Any idea what the survival rates are in general for example is 3% to high based on the amount of coins minted for each year. At 3% it would seem high based on the amount minted.

Is Yonaka's book pretty close or not for this specific series Peru 1751-1772 1 reales? Is the survival rate truly less than 1% in most cases?

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Any idea what the survival rates are in general for example is 3% to high based on the amount of coins minted for each year. At 3% it would seem high based on the amount minted.

It could be 3% but whatever it is, it's almost certainly noticeably lower than the closest comparable US series, Liberty Seated dimes (my inference). I infer this true across all comparable denominations except Seated dollar vs. 8R.

I also don't believe the overall survival rate is that relevant to most collectors, though i may be wrong about that. Not everyone or most are trying to buy it in higher grades, but I assume they also want better quality than what's typically seen, especially for the more common FRD VI dates (1752-1760).

@PillarDollarCollector said:

Is Yonaka's book pretty close or not for this specific series Peru 1751-1772 1 reales? Is the survival rate truly less than 1% in most cases?

Probably reasonably close on the relative scarcity between dates. Remember it's not statistically representative and he didn't explain his methodology. I don't know if his survey data includes all coins in the TPG data, he didn't include my collection, and it's not clear whether his survey includes Sellshopp, Patterson, Ortiz, ANS, or similar collections. Gilboy's plate coins are disproportionately much better quality, though many dates are excluded.

TheGoonies1985

So say 3% of 100 000 coins minted that leaves 3000 still in existence. Then why so few of these coins ever show up for sale in any grades? The survival rate much be much much lower than 3%. More likely less than 1% of these coins still exist in any grades. And that would go for the entire series.

Take for example SimonW said he has been at it for 3 years and still is missing many coins in the series. So in 3 years very few must have come up for sale of any dates.

TheGoonies1985

WCC

You have been collecting this series for 10 years or more have you many coins come up over those years in any grades?

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:

Take for example SimonW said he has been at it for 3 years and still is missing many coins in the series. So in 3 years very few must have come up for sale of any dates.

I've had a saved search on eBay covering all dates for four or five years. I've seen most dates, in some grade. Never saw the 1766 and don't remember the 1768 either.

You need to keep in mind that however many exist, no one can look everywhere at once if it happens to show up in some dealer's inventory who doesn't list it on the internet. Also, the disproportionately low value doesn't create much incentive to sell lower grade decent coins or even many better ones. This is one reason I have no interest in selling my duplicates, I don't need the money and there isn't anything else I would rather own of the same value.

It's my inference that however often the better or best coins sell, it's mostly or usually privately. I don't know how often Sellshopp, Ortiz, or Patterson coins have sold since the sales, but I've never seen any in the 20 years since I bought my first one. Some of these coins are possibly owned by the same owner, even since 1988 when UBS Numismatics sold Sellshopp's collection.

Scarce or rare coins with a high collector preference tend to be owned by the same collectors for a long time.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:
So say 3% of 100 000 coins minted that leaves 3000 still in existence. Then why so few of these coins ever show up for sale in any grades? The survival rate much be much much lower than 3%. More likely less than 1% of these coins still exist in any grades. And that would go for the entire series.

If the Coin Facts estimates for Liberty Seated dimes are ballpark accurate, many of the Charles III dates probably have hundreds (in all grades) or less. For whatever reason even with similar mintages, Charles III dates are a lot harder to find vs. FRD VI except for the 1752 which still seems to be more common than the 1766, 1768 and 1772.

My inference is that the 1752 mintage is wrong. Maybe it's based upon a fiscal instead of calendar year and some 1752's were struck in 1753. I don't know this definitively, but the number of 1752's showing up for sale isn't consistent with a mintage of 408 for this coin. Maybe also for the 1752 2R though I've seen noticeably fewer.

TheGoonies1985

Yonaka says the mintage for the 1752 1 real is 424 pieces. Then 1753 and beyond are 50 000 pieces or more.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Yonaka says the mintage for the 1752 1 real is 424 pieces.

Then I'm guessing based upon the frequency I've seen the 1752, the actual mintage is something like 5X to 10X this number, or somewhat more.

Aside from the two NGC coins, there is the Sellshopp coin (which is a nice one), Patterson had one or a few (haven't checked again), Sedwick sold one they graded VF+ (also a nice one), ANS has at least one, and I've seen it numerous times in various Spanish auctions. Maybe there is some duplication with Yonaka's survey or between those I've seen, but the number of appearances isn't low for a mintage of 424.

Is it possible this high of a proportion were saved? Yes

Is it likely? No, not really, not considering the scarcity of other dates.

This equally applies to the 1752 2R where I recall the mintage is 206 or 208. The mintage for the 1752 4R is supposed to be 81 with one rumored and none confirmed.

If these mintages are accurate, I'd expect both the 1R and 2R to show up less often, maybe with none confirmed like the 4R. The 1752 1/2R hardly shows up at all either.

SimonW

When the 1752 1/2R does show up, it has the propensity to look like this, being that it’s the only one I’ve ever seen for sale😂

SimonW

For the record, I bought my first Reales Peru pillar minor about 14 years ago, I got very serious about it three years ago though. I just kinda figured I’d buy them occasionally whenever they’d come up…but they never did. Three years ago I had this realization, that’s when things got real. 😳

TheGoonies1985

Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

TheGoonies1985

@SimonW said:
When the 1752 1/2R does show up, it has the propensity to look like this, being that it’s the only one I’ve ever seen for sale😂

Better to own one that the opposite in any grade.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

Per my above post, I know of at least 10, though I cannot itemize each one now. I've seen this many or slightly more for sale and in catalogs combined.

WCC

@SimonW said:
When the 1752 1/2R does show up, it has the propensity to look like this, being that it’s the only one I’ve ever seen for sale😂

Sedwick sold a nice one in the same sale they sold the 1752 1R. I just can't remember the sale date. Maybe a F-15.

The nicest one in the public record is the Ex-Ortiz coin sold by UBS Numismatics in 1991. I presume it's also the same one Aureo sold in 2002 which they graded as EBC+. It sold for something like 360 Euros. It's in their archives.

I bought my first Peru pillar in March 2003 but Bolivia and Mexico coins slightly prior. I didn't know of the sale or else would have tried to buy it. I didn't make pillars my primary series until 2010, though I owned quite a few by then. I passed on a few I could have bought, like a duplicate 1771 MS-62 2R. I bought mine from NCCE but they had two.

TheGoonies1985

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

Per my above post, I know of at least 10, though I cannot itemize each one now. I've seen this many or slightly more for sale and in catalogs combined.

OK then maybe 10-20 exist would that be a fair estimate of the 1752 1 real? I know it is impossible to be 100% sure.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

Per my above post, I know of at least 10, though I cannot itemize each one now. I've seen this many or slightly more for sale and in catalogs combined.

OK then maybe 10-20 exist would that be a fair estimate of the 1752 1 real?

I think it's somewhat more. It's very unlikely I have seen most or even half.

This is why I believe the mintage isn't really 424.

TheGoonies1985

In your opinion what happened to the 1766 I mean a lot were minted. Seems strange only 1-2 are known. Have you ever heard a theory over the years that would make sens in your opinion?

TheGoonies1985

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

Per my above post, I know of at least 10, though I cannot itemize each one now. I've seen this many or slightly more for sale and in catalogs combined.

OK then maybe 10-20 exist would that be a fair estimate of the 1752 1 real?

I think it's somewhat more. It's very unlikely I have seen most or even half.

This is why I believe the mintage isn't really 424.

I wish Yonaka would have been in contact with a veteran like yourself before writing his book on the subject maybe we would have clearer estimates of survival on many many more dates. Him stating only 4 have been seen by him you would have thought he would have benefited talking to more people like yourself.

Because of this it is newer collectors like myself that are way off due to following his book. It kinda sucks to be honest. I am happy there is a book on the subject better than no book.

TheGoonies1985

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

Per my above post, I know of at least 10, though I cannot itemize each one now. I've seen this many or slightly more for sale and in catalogs combined.

OK then maybe 10-20 exist would that be a fair estimate of the 1752 1 real?

I think it's somewhat more. It's very unlikely I have seen most or even half.

This is why I believe the mintage isn't really 424.

So maybe anywhere from say 20 to 30 examples exist of the 1752 would be a better estimate? And the 1766 would be what say 5 to 10 known.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:
In your opinion what happened to the 1766 I mean a lot were minted. Seems strange only 1-2 are known. Have you ever heard a theory over the years that would make sens in your opinion?

No, not aside from what I have written on coin forums. It's possible the mintages are wrong for the same reason (possibility) I provided for the 1752. I'm assuming the number struck in a given year is accurate due to accounting requirements but don't know this definitively either.

If you compare the mintage records and known survivors or frequency of appearance for Peru pillar minors to other roughly contemporary Latin coinage, it doesn't seem that unusual. Look at the Santiago pillars or Chile Volcano pesos.

Guatemala pillars are almost always rarer than Peru, but that's almost certainly due to the relative mintages which are usually a low fraction. Guatemala pillar 4R aren't that much rarer if at all vs. Peru 4R with both having virtually no high-quality examples of any date.

My generic reason is geographic isolation with a virtually non-existent collecting culture followed by eventual melting due to demonetization or wear to the point it was no longer recognizable. Someone from auction firm Ponterio once told me that Bolivian pillars circulated until the early 20th century, presumably until Bolivia stopped striking silver coins in 1909.

TheGoonies1985

Thanks WCC!!!

SimonW

I’ve seen too many 1R 1752 coins for the actual production to be that low, and I haven’t been looking nearly as long as @WCC . I’ve seen four sell in that time, three I had a shot at, two I bought. There’s gotta be at least twenty out there…which may make them sound common, but it isn’t, that’s exceedingly rare.

I think there are a few dates that people have been hanging into with prejudice. 1766 is one of them. For instance, if @WCC had another come to his attention that’s not damaged, he’d buy it. If it happened again, and he found a nice AU? He’d buy that one too. He wouldn’t sell his duplicates, just upgrade over time and have multiples.

There are other people that we’re not aware of that do the same thing. There’s more 1766 coins out there, they just don’t come up, because they’re buried in a collection of someone who knows how rare they are, and they have no reason to part with them.

What happened to all those premium coins listed in Jara? Or the big collections over the last few decades? I haven’t seen any of them really. People are holding onto them. For someone to put together a wonderful collection of 1R Peru pillars, it takes decades. Doesn’t matter how much money you have, you still have to be patient and take the shots that you can, when they opportunity presents itself.

SimonW

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

Per my above post, I know of at least 10, though I cannot itemize each one now. I've seen this many or slightly more for sale and in catalogs combined.

OK then maybe 10-20 exist would that be a fair estimate of the 1752 1 real?

I think it's somewhat more. It's very unlikely I have seen most or even half.

This is why I believe the mintage isn't really 424.

I wish Yonaka would have been in contact with a veteran like yourself before writing his book on the subject maybe we would have clearer estimates of survival on many many more dates. Him stating only 4 have been seen by him you would have thought he would have benefited talking to more people like yourself.

Because of this it is newer collectors like myself that are way off due to following his book. It kinda sucks to be honest. I am happy there is a book on the subject better than no book.

Brad knows what he’s doing, nothing in his book is meant to lead you astray. He doesn’t provide estimates on survival populations. He specifically says “number observed” by him, over the course of his study. That’s not the same thing as survival rates, you shouldn’t run your collecting habits as though it is. Yonaka has a great handle on what’s happening, certainly @WCC could have contributed, but Yonaka’s study is a pretty solid work for the scope and duration of the study. I can’t wait for an updated version! So many more data points and varieties have been seen since then.

TheGoonies1985

Thanks SimonW I appreciate your input as I do WCC's!!!

WCC

@SimonW said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

Per my above post, I know of at least 10, though I cannot itemize each one now. I've seen this many or slightly more for sale and in catalogs combined.

OK then maybe 10-20 exist would that be a fair estimate of the 1752 1 real?

I think it's somewhat more. It's very unlikely I have seen most or even half.

This is why I believe the mintage isn't really 424.

I wish Yonaka would have been in contact with a veteran like yourself before writing his book on the subject maybe we would have clearer estimates of survival on many many more dates. Him stating only 4 have been seen by him you would have thought he would have benefited talking to more people like yourself.

Because of this it is newer collectors like myself that are way off due to following his book. It kinda sucks to be honest. I am happy there is a book on the subject better than no book.

Brad knows what he’s doing, nothing in his book is meant to lead you astray. He doesn’t provide estimates on survival populations. He specifically says “number observed” by him, over the course of his study. That’s not the same thing as survival rates, you shouldn’t run your collecting habits as though it is. Yonaka has a great handle on what’s happening, certainly @WCC could have contributed, but Yonaka’s study is a pretty solid work for the scope and duration of the study. I can’t wait for an updated version! So many more data points and varieties have been seen since then.

Brad has much better collector contacts than I do.

I agree with your comments on how to use the survey data. Years ago, I relied on Gilboy's rarity ratings which are definitely not even close. As an example, I had an opportunity to buy a 2nd 1765 NGC MS-62 1/2R but didn't because he listed it as "C" or common with over 1000 estimated as a VF or better.

It is one of the more common Charles III dates (probably 2nd after the 1761) but not common in any decent grade and it's rare in MS.

WCC

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:

@WCC said:

@PillarDollarCollector said:
Say 5 to 10 examples of the 1752 1 reales still exist today out of a mintage of 424 seems something that could be possible. Maybe some years just simply were melted more or whatever like the 1766 or 1768.

Per my above post, I know of at least 10, though I cannot itemize each one now. I've seen this many or slightly more for sale and in catalogs combined.

OK then maybe 10-20 exist would that be a fair estimate of the 1752 1 real?

I think it's somewhat more. It's very unlikely I have seen most or even half.

This is why I believe the mintage isn't really 424.

So maybe anywhere from say 20 to 30 examples exist of the 1752 would be a better estimate? And the 1766 would be what say 5 to 10 known.

You need to be careful about assuming too much from limited data or you're potentially gong to overpay for a coin that you later find to be (a lot) more common than you thought.

In last week's Stacks sale of the Ortiz 1/4R collection, an 1809 NGC MS-63 Bolivia 1/4R sold for $2640, or something like it. There are now two MS-63 (five total) in the NGC data but the Whittier coin (same grade in an NGC holder and maybe the same coin) sold for $4500 in 2006. That's a 40% haircut after 17+ years. It's a scarce coin, but not as scarce as the 2006 price indicates. Same for the 1807 which I recall a prior listing claiming as few as 10 known.

It might not have mattered to the buyer, but you really have to like what you buy to not mind a result like it. $4500 in 2006 would have bought many coins which cost a lot less at the time which are now worth a lot more (some proportionately and others absolutely) and probably scarcer too.

I've seen it other times too.

SimonW

@WCC that’s why I didn’t buy the 1758 4R Guatemala today that just about touched 1k. It was a F12…seemed steep to me. Pretty sure they’ll have a hard time reselling at that level. I could be wrong.

ELuis

@simonW Was the one sold at SB? if it is, the same coin was sold for $1,150

But there is no date for the time that was sold.

SimonW

@ELuis said:
@simonW Was the one sold at SB? if it is, the same coin was sold for $1,150

But there is no date for the time that was sold.

Yes, that’s the one.

Plus00Vltra

@SimonW said:

@ELuis said:
@simonW Was the one sold at SB? if it is, the same coin was sold for $1,150

But there is no date for the time that was sold.

Yes, that’s the one.

When/where did it sell for $1150, please? I saw the earlier SB sale (for $705?) but was not aware of any other.
Also, you folks seem to be the ones to ask: why did the AU 1765 G P 8R sell for less than $3k? I am shocked...

Plus00Vltra

@ELuis said:
@simonW Was the one sold at SB? if it is, the same coin was sold for $1,150

But there is no date for the time that was sold.

When/where did it sell for $1150, please? I saw the earlier SB sale (for $705?) but was not aware of any other.
Also, you folks seem to be the ones to ask: why did the AU 1765 G P 8R sell for less than $3k? I am shocked...

ELuis

@Plus00Vltra This is what I can post:

There is no date for the sale, but it is the same coin graded F12 PCGS

I recall seeing the coin when it was avail for sale at least 1.5 or 2 years ago

It is from a private list of sites that I have to buy some of my coins.

WCC

@Plus00Vltra said:

Also, you folks seem to be the ones to ask: why did the AU 1765 G P 8R sell for less than $3k? I am shocked...

A total guess.

In 2013, I didn't bother bidding on a 1769 Bolivia 2R Aureo graded EBC+ because I thought I wouldn't be able to win it for my price. It sold for something like $600 or $700. Fast forward to 2022 and 2023, it sold twice for over $3000 and I'm now likely never to buy it either.

The same thing happened with a 1769 PCGS AU-53 Bolivia 4R. Sold for 750 Euros. I didn't bid on it either.

In the sale I bought the Peru 1770 4R, the 1770 Bolivia MS-62 4R sold for around 3K after selling for multiples of that previously. I would have attempted to win this coin, but I made it to the live bidding late, didn't place an absentee bid, and the lot already sold.

I'm not looking for a 1765G 8R but would have bought it for this price, if I liked it.

Plus00Vltra

@ELuis said:
@Plus00Vltra This is what I can post:

There is no date for the sale, but it is the same coin graded F12 PCGS

I recall seeing the coin when it was avail for sale at least 1.5 or 2 years ago

It is from a private list of sites that I have to buy some of my coins.

Thank you much.

Boosibri

@Plus00Vltra said:

@ELuis said:
@simonW Was the one sold at SB? if it is, the same coin was sold for $1,150

But there is no date for the time that was sold.

When/where did it sell for $1150, please? I saw the earlier SB sale (for $705?) but was not aware of any other.
Also, you folks seem to be the ones to ask: why did the AU 1765 G P 8R sell for less than $3k? I am shocked...

It was a surprising result for sure but the coin was pretty ugly with nasty adjustment marks. There was a 1761 in 55 that sold for $3800 recently and that was very dark. I would have pegged the 1765 more like $5000 which is still a steal for a coin with maybe 10 gradeable examples.