Price guide changes due to a new top pop

Tom147

Question regarding a recent purchase. I recently bought an ms68 coin with a current price guide of $ 4000.00 Guide lists it as a top pop. On checking the pop reports, it shows a pop of 15/1 with the 1 being a ms68+. Obviously the guide hasn't been updated. My question is, how will the new + coin affect the current price of the ms68 ? I know the + will be worth more than the ms68 at 4K, but will the 4K guide price drop ? Or the ms68+ have a guide price of 7K to 8 or 9K and the 68 stay the same ? Thoughts ???

lilolme

This is probably best answered by those involved in the pcgs pricing (Ferguson, Bozarth) but not sure they are monitoring this forum regularly.

I am curious why the pop report does not agree with the price guide. By price guide I am assuming you mean the coin facts as the price guide does not have pops. Anyway....

I will give you one example. I made a 67+ coin that became the top pop (only plus coin with about 8 in the 67 grade as I recall at the time without a plus). So similar to the above. The 67+ coin was in the pop report and shown on coinfacts for about 6 months if I recall correctly before pcgs put a price on it (don't know what is typical as this could have been overlooked). The coins in the 67 grade did not change in price.

The 67 grade coin pricing remained as is based off previous pricing information but of course could change if another one sold, auction or other information per pcgs policy (below).

The 67+ coin price I believe was guesstimated from similar coins in the series and population as best applicable. The coin has had a price change or two also. However, I still have the coin (I think about 10 years now) and there is no specific information on it. So the price changes are probably being done by observation of similar coins and/or the market or series in general. However, one in an NGC holder (no cac) did sell at auction a couple years ago so that could provide a data point of sorts.

Here is the pcgs price guide page and the information at the bottom of the page for what they use for pricing. Under the 'Read More'. Auction records are most likely the most used data. Note, they have the 'Your Input Is Welcome' (so dealers or other can submit sales or data to support a price change if pcgs accepts it).

https://www.pcgs.com/prices

jmlanzaf

@lilolme said:
This is probably best answered by those involved in the pcgs pricing (Ferguson, Bozarth) but not sure they are monitoring this forum regularly.

I am curious why the pop report does not agree with the price guide. By price guide I am assuming you mean the coin facts as the price guide does not have pops. Anyway....

I will give you one example. I made a 67+ coin that became the top pop (only plus coin with about 8 in the 67 grade as I recall at the time without a plus). So similar to the above. The 67+ coin was in the pop report and shown on coinfacts for about 6 months if I recall correctly before pcgs put a price on it (don't know what is typical as this could have been overlooked). The coins in the 67 grade did not change in price.

The 67 grade coin pricing remained as is based off previous pricing information but of course could change if another one sold, auction or other information per pcgs policy (below).

The 67+ coin price I believe was guesstimated from similar coins in the series and population as best applicable. The coin has had a price change or two also. However, I still have the coin (I think about 10 years now) and there is no specific information on it. So the price changes are probably being done by observation of similar coins and/or the market or series in general. However, one in an NGC holder (no cac) did sell at auction a couple years ago so that could provide a data point of sorts.

Here is the pcgs price guide page and the information at the bottom of the page for what they use for pricing. Under the 'Read More'. Auction records are most likely the most used data. Note, they have the 'Your Input Is Welcome' (so dealers or other can submit sales or data to support a price change if pcgs accepts it).

https://www.pcgs.com/prices

The price guide is irrelevant and speculative until there is an actual sale.

lilolme

@jmlanzaf said:

@lilolme said:
This is probably best answered by those involved in the pcgs pricing (Ferguson, Bozarth) but not sure they are monitoring this forum regularly.

I am curious why the pop report does not agree with the price guide. By price guide I am assuming you mean the coin facts as the price guide does not have pops. Anyway....

I will give you one example. I made a 67+ coin that became the top pop (only plus coin with about 8 in the 67 grade as I recall at the time without a plus). So similar to the above. The 67+ coin was in the pop report and shown on coinfacts for about 6 months if I recall correctly before pcgs put a price on it (don't know what is typical as this could have been overlooked). The coins in the 67 grade did not change in price.

The 67 grade coin pricing remained as is based off previous pricing information but of course could change if another one sold, auction or other information per pcgs policy (below).

The 67+ coin price I believe was guesstimated from similar coins in the series and population as best applicable. The coin has had a price change or two also. However, I still have the coin (I think about 10 years now) and there is no specific information on it. So the price changes are probably being done by observation of similar coins and/or the market or series in general. However, one in an NGC holder (no cac) did sell at auction a couple years ago so that could provide a data point of sorts.

Here is the pcgs price guide page and the information at the bottom of the page for what they use for pricing. Under the 'Read More'. Auction records are most likely the most used data. Note, they have the 'Your Input Is Welcome' (so dealers or other can submit sales or data to support a price change if pcgs accepts it).

https://www.pcgs.com/prices

The price guide is irrelevant and speculative until there is an actual sale.

Hence my terminology of "guesstimated".

Tom147

I understand what you're both saying and I really do appreciate your answering. I'll address your responses in order as best I can. Understand I'm only discussing full band coins. The coin in question is a 1948-D Roosevelt dime in ms68. Pop reports show 15/1 with the 1 being a 68+. Price guide only shows a price of the 68 @ $ 4150. No price for a ms68+. That's why I'm thinking the price guide hasn't updated and quite possibly the + coin has just recently been made. Auction prices realized show 3 - NGC 68+'s sold by Heritage in the last 19 months with a high price of $ 1800. Latest NGC pop report shows 25/2+'s. Auction prices only show 2 PCGS ms68's sold since the full band inception. No PCGS 68+'s listed. Hence, my feeling the + has just been made.
I use the pop and price guide pages when evaluating purchases. However, on this auction win from GC, I only looked at the price guide page. Not seeing a price for a 68+ I wrongly assumed I was bidding on a top pop coin. After I placed a bid I saw there was a + coin. Still an upgrade as my current is a 67+fb. This is in my
# 3 Registry 46 - 64 fb set. I also understand the guide is speculative and the price is a WAG. Just wondering if the guide price will change now that it is no longer a top pop.

AlanSki

The + coin was probably a 68 and resubbed about 4 times to get the +. Pops are inconsistent and pretty much irrelevant.

lilolme

@Tom147 said:
I understand what you're both saying and I really do appreciate your answering. I'll address your responses in order as best I can. Understand I'm only discussing full band coins. The coin in question is a 1948-D Roosevelt dime in ms68. Pop reports show 15/1 with the 1 being a 68+. Price guide only shows a price of the 68 @ $ 4150. No price for a ms68+. That's why I'm thinking the price guide hasn't updated and quite possibly the + coin has just recently been made. Auction prices realized show 3 - NGC 68+'s sold by Heritage in the last 19 months with a high price of $ 1800. Latest NGC pop report shows 25/2+'s. Auction prices only show 2 PCGS ms68's sold since the full band inception. No PCGS 68+'s listed. Hence, my feeling the + has just been made.
I use the pop and price guide pages when evaluating purchases. However, on this auction win from GC, I only looked at the price guide page. Not seeing a price for a 68+ I wrongly assumed I was bidding on a top pop coin. After I placed a bid I saw there was a + coin. Still an upgrade as my current is a 67+fb. This is in my
# 3 Registry 46 - 64 fb set. I also understand the guide is speculative and the price is a WAG. Just wondering if the guide price will change now that it is no longer a top pop.

.
I understand better now. Close to what I tried to cover previously. I am sometimes too wordy though.

First I can not say what will or will not happen in the future but here is my best understanding.

For my coin when the + was made a price did not show up for many months. Since there was no data points for the coin I assume pcgs guesstimated the price based off similar coins in the series.

For the existing 67 non-plus coins the price did not change as the 67 price was determined by previous and existing data.

More specifics to the OP coin. Here are screen shots of the coin facts page. The PCGS price for the 68 at $4150 is based off the shown auction data and possibly any other sale information that pcgs might have received from dealers or other. On a search of collectors corner I did not see any currently for sale. Note: the auction data is kind of old with the most recent shown being 10/19.

Also included is the pcgs price history for the 68FB. PCGS has adjusted it up slightly recently. Maybe due to market in general or some other non-public information received.

Now that there is a 68+FB there should be no reason to change the 68FB price as the data for it has not changed. However, if one comes up for sale and it is at a much different price level, then yes the price guide could change.

Note: That is a rather big difference between the PCGS auctions and the NGC auctions (more recent) but so far PCGS has not lowered their price guide for the PCGS coin due to the NGC auction results. Actually have increased the 68FB recently.

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And the auction prices realized page.

https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/details/1948-d-ms/85089

BryceM

10 years ago there were no MS67+ peace dollars of any date/MM. (For years, there have been two MS68 coins, both well-known).

If you can figure out when the first 67+ coins showed up, and go back and see what happened to the price guides, you’ll have some relevant data points.

Of course, what the guides say is one thing. What happened to actual prices realized during that time is much more meaningful.

Tom147

lilolme said
Note: That is a rather big difference between the PCGS auctions and the NGC auctions (more recent) but so far PCGS has not lowered their price guide for the PCGS coin due to the NGC auction results. Actually have increased the 68FB recently.

Tom147 said : I normally don't consult NGC guides or pop reports as I'm a staunch PCGS advocate. Only seen the NGC's in a search of auction results and a possible source for the new 68+ . Having not seen either of the two 68+'s in NGC slabs I can"t be 100% but I'm guessing no possibility of a crossover to our hosts in this grade.
As for your observation of data not changing for the existing 68's, I had not considered that. And it's why I love this forum. I ask questions so somebody smarter than me can offer their opinion. THANK YOU SIR. Very much appreciated.

Tom147

Found it. Halcyon has the # 1 set and he has the 68+.