Jeff Garrett's Opinion of Current Gold Market
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Here is an excerpt from this week's NGC article by Jeff.
With gold on the rise again, Jeff Garrett explains why there is no better time to invest in the gold coin market.
In the last few weeks, gold has finally started to move in a positive direction, as it briefly topped $2,000 for the first time in months. Tensions over global conflicts and concerns about the massive federal debt have once again made gold look attractive as a safety play. Almost daily we have clients calling and asking about how to buy gold to protect their assets. It will only take one headline crisis for gold to move to the next level.
Many dealers whom I have contacted have bought much more than they have been selling. That is one of the reasons that the premiums for bullion-related objects are near recent lows.
This oversupply is also playing out in the rare, or nearly rare, coin market. Generic date, common issues of United States gold coins are selling for very low premiums once again. Much of this surplus is fueled by an avalanche of pre-1933 gold coins flowing back to the United States from Europe. During the Depression and before, large quantities of US gold coins were shipped to Europe as a standard course of international trade. No one really knew how much US gold remained lurking in the vaults of European banks and other financial institutions.
Today the rare coin market is being faced with an unprecedented quantity of gold coins entering the market. These coins have been quietly entering the market for some time, but in the last few years some retailers have been loudly touting this newfound supply of US gold coinage.
By now you are probably thinking that this part of the market should be avoided due to oversupply. I urge you to consider otherwise. There has never been a better time to start a collection of US gold coins. Premiums for most Double Eagles, other than scarce or rare issues, have been crushed in the last year or so.
There is also a lot of market uncertainty due to the fact that no one really knows what is in the recent flows coming from Europe. A few of the major players have an idea, but I doubt any one person or group knows the full extent of what exists in these foreign holdings. Markets hate uncertainty, and that is one of the reasons prices have fallen so much. In time, this will be resolved as the coins are absorbed and more information becomes clear to researchers and collectors.
Comments
Part of the reason that premiums have been crushed is that many potential collectors of gold coins have been priced out of the market by the rising price of gold. Anyone buying the more common dates is risking a significant loss if the price of gold retreats once again. (Or even if the gold price remains steady and the dollar continues to lose value at a rapid rate.)
I think this is also a major reason why the premiums on most modern gold commems has vanished. Even the 2022 issues, with mintages around 1600 in uncirculated and 6000 in proof, are available at slightly above melt for the proofs and less than $1000 each for the uncircs. Most of the others are available close to melt.
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Gold incoming from Europe isn't really the whole story. The biggest issue right now is a lack of demand on the collector/hoarder side for generic gold. The supply side has been consistent for several years now, but the demand side swings wildly depending on spot price and premiums.
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Has there been a time when Garrett or others like him have reflected a bearish outlook on the markets in which they participate in?
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If not Garrett, ...I... will acknowledge a MUCH more cautionary approach to the subject.
While I consider gold to be THE preferred asset for the not too distant future, I still am not jumping as MUCH into the yella as I used to.
Been hearing stuff like this since the late 1970's. If I'd blindly listened to it versus looking at other investment options, I'd be counting my gold in a van by the river. Yes, it's good to have a gold stash but diversification is the key.
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Exactly. If Garret ever says it's time to sell, dump EVERY THING including your gold teeth.
Ok I’m in
Now who’s got some for sale super cheap? 😂
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When Olive Garden quits pushing their breadsticks I will listen to all unbiased business people including coin dealers.
Predicting the price of gold next month is impossible. It’s on the higher side today because of the possibility of a bigger war and economic uncertainty. Buying a significant amount of generic gold today doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. If gold drops after things calm down investors are going to take a haircut. Buying pre 1875 gold coins is also risky with the Fairmont and Kentucky hoards and all the gold sitting in European vaults.
IMO If gold and silver drop in price the entire coin market will follow. Only the rarest and high-end pieces will maintain or rise. So if you're interested in buying coins in general, US gold is probably a decent place to park some capital.
I think that's too broad. Some segments track bullion prices but not the entire market or even most of it.
True or false. Metal prices are manipulated......
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
I suppose all prices in every market are manipulated to some extent. Metals, perhaps more than most. But if you're investing for the long term, I don't see how a manipulated market matters in the least. Do you?
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If I knew how to predict future prices of the metals you can be sure I wouldn't be talking about it.
I'd be in Ibiza or Tahiti sipping a beverage. With my GF and doogies.
"There's no better time than NOW to buy gold!"
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Gold premiums getting crushed, at record lows? Not sure what these guys are smoking. premiums remain historically insane to the upside. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Depends which coins you're (Garrett) is talking about.
"Jeff Garrett explains why there is no better time to invest in the gold coin market."
It seems to me that post 9/11/2001 was a better time to invest in the gold coin market
NGC/PCGS uncirculated double eagles were very cheap.
I miss the days where APMEX or others would run $20 gold specials on eBay for $20 over melt. Now that was low premium for AU or XF gold.
Considering current world events bullish on gold - AGE, AGB. Many US numismatic gold coins way overpriced IMO.
There are many types of buyers, flippers, short termers, long term investors, speculators. Buy on the rumor, sell on the news seems to be one strategy.
Personally I always find the emotional calls for revenge a major problem and the saber-rattlers, hoping always that cooler heads will prevail.
Or under-priced...
Or just right...
I dunno. The people making the most noise about it being a good time to buy gold.... always want to sell what they're holding to me.......
I always figured I'd have a small percentage of my net worth in metals and hope & pray they did poorly. If they're doing great, most everything else probably isn't..... Not too nuanced for some of you, but that's basically how I see it.
Jeff Garrett is an utter piker compared to Patrick Heller at Liberty Coin Service. Mr. Heller undoubtedly believes what he says (writes) but, my goodness, there are only so many times that the sky can fall…
Remember the world went out and got itself into a big freaking hurry. It's all about the nickel today, to hell with the dollar tomorrow.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Can someone quantify this, maybe a dealer who sees this stuff 1st-hand ? I don't doubt that a few coins monthly might be coming back from European or other country SDBs...maybe an occasional hoard or mini-hoard of accumulated coins (like the Fairmont Collection)...but I was unaware that there is an "avalanche of pre-1933 gold coins" that are coming in steadily.
How many ?
What types -- Double Eagles ? Smaller denominations ?
Again, I've seen no articles on this which would have detected if a surge of pre-1933 gold was coming in, whethere it was MS or AU or heavily circulated coins. I'd love to get more details -- IF there are any.
Again, I know there's been a steady trickle and a few finds were sort of merged together to create the Fairmont Collection/Hoard....but aside from a bump here and there in MCMVII HR's a few years ago, is this a true statement or a marketing statement ? Because I can't believe that the amount of coins is ANYWHERE NEAR what came back in the 1950's and 1960's and even early-1970's. Firms like Paramount and others were bringing back HUNDREDS or THOUSANDS each month and if you wanted more worn coins you could buy tens of thousands up to the 1960's via Swiss Banks (as per David Bowers). Again, maybe JG means a few dozen coins which would pale in comparision but the words used seem to indicate much much larger quantities.
Seems to imply that for the DEs that it is AU or lower and mostly generic common coins. The kind that would probably go ungraded by TPGs.
I picked up an MS-63 1915-S at 2019 FUN for like $20 (maybe less !) over the price of bullion.....that excludes the 3% difference in gold content in a Saint.
Few would dare.
Manipulated markets matter. Ask those that bought into silver when the Hunt Bros. rode it to $50 per oz in the early eighties. They got smashed.
That was a bubble which is FAR DIFFERENT than gold laying in the $1,800 range -- give or take $200 or so -- for the last 6-7 years. We've been at $1,800 - $2,000 ever since 2020.
I don't know where the next $300 on gold is -- up or down.
I DO think (know) that the next $1,000 is UP. Now...when it happens, I have no idea. Gold could lay here at the $2,000 range for a few more months or a few more years.
I do think that by 2030 gold will be SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER (~ $3,000) and we'll look back wondering why anybody cared if they bought at $2,050 an ounce or $1,825 an ounce.
When is it a good time to buy copper?
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
Well, inflation from 2020 to now is about 19%. Gold needed to go up by almost $400/oz during that period just to maintain value.
It hasn’t even done half of that.
Gold at $3000 in 2030 might still have underperformed the stock market by a lot $2000 to $3000 in 7 years is only a 6% annual rate of return.
Couldn't agree more with your thoughts on holding some metals. Fed understands full well there is no more room to raise rates without pushing us into a deep recession/depression and break the banking system. Also they are aware what current rates will do to debt service on a 33 trillion dollar debt. If the Fed has paused and planning a pivot to lower rates by early to mid 2024 then gold has performed very well during a huge run up in interest rates. Inflation was not transitory and still with us and I fully expect gold to move higher as rates recede and inflation chugs along just above Fed target. (Let''s set aside the world's craziness)
Anecdotally, conversations with my LCS owner seem to point to a bit more selling than buying at the current moment for nearly any type of gold coins and silver. Not sure the "drop" in gold premiums is related to European hoards but maybe more of current economic conditions. Weaker hands selling off purchases made with "free" pandemic money to cover financial needs. I watched a guy walk in and drop a kilo bar of silver on the counter to sell. As he left he said "See you soon, hopefully not to sell next time". Premiums are not even back to where they were pre-COVID - no panic here. JMHO
Mark
Factor in inflation, and that rate of return is even lower (if it’s any return at all). Gold bought around 12 years ago at around $1600 an ounce has gained exactly zero return because of inflation. It’s worth exactly the same.
Or, it bought you a suit then and it still buys you that same suit.
The narratives surrounding any short-term or sustained rise in gold are almost ALWAYS wrong. But I see commentators use them all the time: budget deficits...inflation....market volatility....national debt....etc etc etc.
Having sat next to gold and commodity traders who are actually buying the stuff for the firm's clients and institutions, I can state those are only marginal factors. Ultimately, it's SUPPLY and DEMAND that moves the metal.
Central bank sales are big. Seasonal buying (China, India) is big. SUSTAINED inflation in a developed country Ii.e., the U.S.) can be big. But inflation and debt/deficit scares are almost always fleeting and at any given time there are several countries suffering from REAL INFLATION and even HYPERINFLATION and you don't see their citizens buying gold en masse.
But most of the other variables are ALWAYS present so to state they are the reason why gold goes higher is somewhat misleading.
But it makes for a nice story, right ?
Absolutely, JM...not saying gold is going to get there OR that it will ourperform stocks or bonds. The headwinds for gold to beat stocks (with dividends compounding) or bonds (with interest compounding) are insurmountable IMO over any sustained time period.
Good question, Dr. Copper is more tied to global GDP growth than PMs but the supply deficit for copper especially regarding the electrification of autos is a secular tailwind. I've actually looked at VALE, RIO, and BHP as investment plays but haven't pulled the trigger.
Assuming I can attach PDFs, I would be happy to post some sell-side reports talking about copper fundamentals if that is your interest.
+1, nicely explained.
This is predominantly why price moves in gold are negatively correlated to the dollar and highly correlated to emerging markets (China, India) rather than correlated to CPI, VIX, etc.
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Is he talking about NEW supply or EXISTING, KNOWN coins ?
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Hmmm, all hype. There appears to be little desire to buy gold (at least on this forum). I've had an 1899 Russian Rueble on the precious metals board at melt plus shipping and not a peep from anyone. Over a week now. 4.3 grams of 90% gold for $265 delivered. Demand has lessened for sure. I can't remember gold sitting for a week since pre pandemic for sure.
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https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1099232/the-official-january-precious-metals-buy-sell-trade-thread#latest
My thinking exactly, but you said it first. I've read his Coin Week articles intermittently and never read anything even neutral. The most consistent claim he makes is calling common coins "rare".
If someone wants to buy gold coins, go ahead and do it, but not because someone like him recommends it.
That was a great time to purchase gold coins. Back then I purchased a box of 20 pcgs $20 saints in 63 and 64. 63 saints were $375 and 64 saints were around $400. Bought them from Greg at treasure island coins in fargo n.d.
Coins were in rattler holders
Yet, Costco and Wal-Mart are selling out. Now, whether those purchases are cannibalizing sales from elsewhere, I can't say.
Of course, if anything, I would say gold buyers at COST and WMT should be a contrarian indicator !
I believe MS-65's were about $550.....66's about $1,000....and even MS-67's were about $4,000 for numerous years/mints (unless you wanted to go non-PCGS/NGC and then closer to $3,000
).
I'm going by research and data sheets I saved.... some of the vets here or dealers who were actually buying/selling with good memories can probably be more specific about the 1999-2002 period pricing.
I'm doing the exact opposite next week. Dumping generic gold.
I do not see a path to higher gold demand short of a black swan event. I see liquidation of precious metals for reserve currency. We are entering an age of accumulating cash reserves for investment opportunities as asset prices decline.
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