Undervalued/"sleeper"/bargain coins?
shaney777
Posts: 38 ✭✭
Undervalued/"sleeper"/bargain coins?
Hello all. Are there any extremely low survival coins that are cheap but still a great investment? I am thinking about graded & old proofs, very old/classic coins in unpopular series', etc.
I'd love a ranking list or at least some ideas, direction, etc.
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Aren’t proof three cent nickels basically hated by everyone? Sub 1,000 mintages on some of them, and high grades across the entire set are still relatively cheap.
I know of several coins that are very undervalued that are sure to greatly increase in value in the next few years but I won't say what they are since I'm buying them and I don't need any competition.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
No, I can’t say I know of any nice, undervalued coins in my series. If I did, you could bet they wouldn’t be on the market very long. Someone ( namely me ) would try to see to that.😉
The US coin market is both large, well covered and very mature. It is a market that does not foster "sleeper" coins.
This.
There are coins that are more popular and less popular. Over time, the popularity could change. But it is all just speculation.
Classic commems and the aforementioned 3 cent nickel proofs are good examples of coins not currently in favor. They have room to run IF IF IF they ever got popular. But there's also no reason why a $15k HR $20 wouldn't go to $100k while you're waiting for the $500 3 cent proof to go to $1000.
Buy what you like and assume none of it is going up in value. If you want to make money, buy balanced index funds.
What! I think lots of people like them including me, why do you hate them?
Type collector, mainly into Seated. -formerly Ownerofawheatiehorde. Good BST transactions with: mirabela, OKCC, MICHAELDIXON, Gerard
There are always a few coins that are undervalued. If we only had a crystal ball. I remenber when Roosevelt dimes werent given a second look. I picked up my slabbed MS68 1949S for $20.
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Three cent nickel proofs were $500 20-25 years ago (probably longer), and they are still $500. The robust coin market that has stemmed from covid didn’t help this series at all, and unless there’s a massive hoard (unbeknownst to me) of these 600-1200 mintage coins that recently came to market to subdue any gains, this series is/was/has been dead.
I read posts here saying never invest in coins to expect a profit. Clearly those posters are referring to this set.
Sleepers aren’t really good investments, because lots of them never wake up. Some do though, but rather than investments it’s more like gambling on long shots. But if you like that particular type of coin, it’s a great way to build nice collections on a budget.
Mr_Spud
Look in world coins, not US.
Demand is such a big factor, too.
The publication of the first comprehensive catalog for obsolete notes in 1988 gradually increased to number of collectors of these. The sleepers turned out to be the most common and cheap notes. Common notes sell for multiples of what they did a few decades ago while rarer notes generally went up but not always and not by as much percentage-wise. Knowledge led to an increase in the number of beginners, putting demand on the cheaper, entry-level notes. Now, some of these collectors are maturing, have the common notes, and are starting to demand the better stuff.
The downside is that this is a thin market. Collectors tend to collect by state and often only their home state. The addition or subtraction of even a single wealthy player can have a significant impact and the addition of two or three such collectors certainly will.
The market for obsoletes can, in many ways, be compared to other specialized areas of numismatics, and that's why I offer it as an example. Many of these aspects can be seen in various areas of exonumia, like Civil War tokens, but also in unpopular series, like 3 cent nickels. A few collectors can make a big difference.
In general, there is no such thing as what you define a "sleeper" in US numismatics.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Vintage world gold.
There are two two motifs of coins, that I am very familiar with- Liberty Seated coins and Liberty Head gold. Each of these motifs have several denominations, as you know. These series have many undervalued coins. For an example, I think an 1886-s dime is very undervalued. Its PCGS population is low as well as its price. Try to find one!
There are many Barber coins as well that are undervalued.
There are Liberty gold coins, especially in the $2.50 and $5.00 that are many times rarer than a common date, but just cost a little more. Undervalued** rare** liberty gold can be found as well.
These series are collected more than 3 Cent Nickles and have a better chance of increasing in value. No guarantees, but when i find the rarest coin for the least amount of money, compared to other issues, they generally go up in price.
Learn more here:
Liberty Seated Coin club- http://www.lsccweb.org/
Barber Coin Society-http://www.barbercoins.org/
Doug Winter (gold) a trove of knowledge articles plus coins for sale- https://raregoldcoins.com/
Anybody have an opinion on the 11 piece Gold Commemorative Set?
Some cool designs but many are expensive and less popular than the silver (in part due to the higher cost). One that I like and follow, the 1926 sesquicentennial, has increased in price in the post 2020 bump (although not as significantly as some other coins).
I greatly appreciate you all for providing awesome information!! I will take a look at three cent nickels, barber, seated liberty, and commems. I haven't ever been too interested in world coins and can't really afford gold.
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2016 Betty Ford UNC with the OGP
In my mind the 11 gold commemoratives were heavily promoted for years and there always seem to be plenty for sale at dealers and auction houses. Currently there are 158 available alone on Collectors Corner. The two $50 coins give the gold commemoratives the reputation of being expensive; but, when the two are eliminated, the PCGS value is $15,375 in MS64. In MS66, many of the eleven have significant price jumps with the set then totaling $37,775. The two gold Grants have moderate jumps.
When looking at the population reports, the Grant No Star looks undervalued compared to its twin, Grant Star. Both coins had the same mintage - 5,000 and are easily found in the higher grades. With Star Grants, there are 678/25+ in MS66 (59.32% of the total population of gold MS66 Grants) and the PCGS price guide is $2,650/$2,750 for +.
In the case of No Star Grants, there are 471/11+ in MS 66 (40.68% of the total population of gold MS66 Grants) with the PCGS price guide of $2100/$2,400 for +. It's lowest price level since 1980! Most likely the reason for the popularity of the Grant with Star is the widely known scarcity of the silver Grant with Star.
Coins are, essentially, commodities, and the market is mature, and fairly large.
So any guessing as to "undervalued" coins is, in fact, pure speculation on what the market will do in the future.
Good luck with that!
For me, I'll buy the coins I like, being as careful as I can not to overpay too much, feeling confident that I could get good percentage of my purchase price if I ever sell. I'm not rich enough to throw money away without caring, and I also know that there are better investments than coins, in general (especially in the segment of the market I can play in).
Agree that there are no real "sleepers", but coins that are more or less popular. I have to say that I enjoy collecting less-than-popular coins. I am able to collect nicer, scarce coins (that I enjoy) for what I consider to be bargain prices.
I love half cents, and the Braided Hair would be a #1 recommendation for a collector who wanted a set of coins that are fairly scarce and affordable. My proof Mercury Dime set is an another short set of coins that are beautiful, scarce and affordable (although they are NCLT).
I am not saying that either of these sets will "become hot" and/or are good investments. I am saying that if you find a lesser popular set that YOU love, you can enjoy collecting them at affordable prices. That said, I only make these suggestions here publicly, because my sets are complete
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
I believe that there are vast numbers of undervalued U.S. coins. Some in specialty areas like colonials and patterns. (Examples: All Chalmers coinage, and all 1881, 1882 and 1883 pattern Liberty nickels struck in nickel.) Others more mainstream, like silver commems, but you have to be very selective with respect to quality to find true value.
And if you're willing to consider world coins, the opportunities are almost endless.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
1859-S Seated Dollar. But it's starting to catch up.
The three most recent uncirculated $5 gold commems have mintages below 1800 and are available at less than $900 each.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Morgan and Peace Dollars.
Big and attractive coins
VAM collectors
Set/Registry Set collectors
Variety Collectors
Speculators
etc...
So many concentric circles of collectors overlapping....
Hope that makes sense.
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I would add well struck coins in Key and semi key date series.
Each year and mint have differing levels of quality.
Identify those traits... cherrypick from the slop.
Two broad directions, but learning to identify quality spreads your bets.
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Some elongated cents, listed in "Yesterday's Elongated" in great condition are now eligible to be graded by our host. These go back to the early days of the small cent and elongating machines. Many are scarce in better conditions but can often be found in bulk lots and in collections as novelties. Value is ever increasing.
Funny difference of opinion. I think Morgans are the most overpriced series on the planet (although I understand that demand keeps the value up).
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Ditto. Common as dirt
More or less an example of how I think.
Popular series with several collectors of various interest converging...
Match that to any series worldwide or find a niche.... DMPL Morgan's for example
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I like slabbed mod silver and gold Commems (MS69&70). So much cheaper than the Classics, many close to melt, low pop. Great investment buy! Time to buy is now. Nice coins look at with y fav drink, lean back, and stack them, neat.
Given that there is a robust market for Morgans, it's a bit silly to say that any is "overpriced," since they sell readily.
However, after the recent run-up in price, they may be set for a fall. Or not. Timing the market is a game, and your guess is as good as mine. Or anyone else's. And the Mint's selling bullion versions of the Morgan and Peace dollars is going to help feed their popularity for the foreseeable future. Or not.
The modern gold commems are a 'best buy imo. A completable set though some are hard to locate. I recently completed my set of PR and MS 70's for bullion related prices other than the Jackie Robinson MS which I did have to pay up for. The silver lining on that piece, was the price was a lot lower than four years ago when I started collecting/stacking these seriously.
Hence my statement, "although I understand that demand keeps the value up".
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Someone already said "world coins". I definitely agree with this. My personal pick is large cents and half cents but truly problem free "choice" examples only. Not really a "secret" but they are only recently starting to get the love they deserve.
This is one I actually agree with. Big silver dollar, very low mintage (20,000) with high attrition, Gold Rush era, and the first silver dollar struck on the West Coast. Surprised that there's not much interest, relatively.
Plus, given that the type was produced at the request of the early San Francisco merchant community to give the US a large silver silver coin to be used in China, there's a good argument to be made that the 1859-S Seated Dollar is the first American trade coin, albeit unofficially. I know of four with chopmarks; they should be much more well-recognized in my opinion.
I've bought a lot of sleeper coins over the preceding three decades that have risen nicely in value. They tend to stay flat for a long time because they don't trade frequently. All of a sudden, published prices take a big leap and the coin ends up being a hot topic on this forum. Past examples of "forum fad items" include the 1909-O Barber quarter, the 1822 dime, the 1824/2 Bust quarter, etc. These coins had their day on the forum right about the time they woke up from their slumber, and the conversation here pushed them to even higher levels.
My personal best sleeper scores were an 1873-cc Arr. quarter, now PCGS F12, bought for $5,000 about 15 years ago, and an 1822 25/50 Bust 25c, now PCGS VG08, bought for $2,250 when that was Greysheet Ask around the same time. Those coins were both Zzzzzzzz in the price guides around 2008. In 2002, I picked up a Chain Cent with VG/F details and some minor damage for $2,000 because the Greysheet told me that was the right price for a Net G04 coin. I also bought a bunch of Type coins around that time that have barely budged in price, so it all evens out. How about the 1804 quarter in NGC VG08 that I bought for $6500 right before the secret hoard was broken up? I've just about recovered my investment 15 years later. D'Ohhhh!!!!
Now here's a contrarian viewpoint. If I went back to the 1990s and started indiscriminately buying Unc. $20 gold coins at $350 to $450 apiece, with an average eye for quality, I'd probably be at the same place financially, if not better off. Ditto for common CC Morgan dollars in Unc. The self-proclaimed smart collector doesn't always get the credit. Sometimes it's the hoarder buying the most popular material who makes out like a bandit.
As others have said, today is a point in time and one cannot predict the shape of the coin's or hobby's future, i.e., what coins are going to skyrocket and which ones are going to plunge.
My advice would be to pick a group that you like and study them. Buy the reference books. Look at prices and mintages. Chart them. Look at the outliers. Research them further. Know how to recognize rare varieties and die marriages quickly. For Seated Liberty coins, some dates allow quick recognition such as those with distinctive die-breaks, different sized mintmarks, or date/mintmark position. This hobby rewards those who study and learn. That's how you find the "sleepers."
Oh, here's one: 1873-S half in EF40 or higher. Why? Because it was a remaining hole in my collection after 15 years and I couldn't find an acceptable one on eBay. From studying Gobrecht Journal surveys I now know that this coin is notably scarce in SLH collections. It's rarity in collections is up there with coins costing 2-3 times more in price. That's what I speculate as being a "sleeper." If I was in the gambling business, I'd call a 73-S in EF40 to AU58 my:
".999-pure-Ag Lock of the Month!"
That was a Freebee. The next will cost you $150 in three easy payments. Call now toll-free at 1-800-RIPNRUN.
Simple advice... Just Buy Bangers!
They will be fought over by collectors from every niche in said series....
PCGS provides indexes online... not unlike Nasdaq and S&P.
Interesting data can be mined.
The Robert Shippie book "Pleasure and Profit" would be a good read.
Basically, the book covers this topic from the pursuit, purchase, and eventual auction results years later.
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!5 years ago I suggested AU-58 coins were the most undervalued and defined them as "Gems with light wear".
Now the most undervalued US coins are coins struck by brand new dies. This probably app0lies across the board to all US coins but especially clads. These coins have a different look about them because tiny die imperfections prevent a "shiny" appearance.
Hammered and other well struck coins are underappreciated as well and these are much more readily available among older coins. Most moderns are too "common" to get significant premiums merely for being hammered.
Here's the long-running thread I started in 2015 about 1873-s half dollars and what a pain it is to locate a nice XF or better.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/936772/the-1873-s-seated-half-dollar-a-tough-coin-to-find
There is no Santa Claus in numismatics.
But there is a free lunch...
What do you think of the 1926 $2.5 Gold Sesquicentennial?
The MS64 has already made a big jump since 2019. It's the most common gold commemorative - PCGS has graded over 4700 of them. Common $2 1/2 gold pieces go for around $600. The design is attractive; but, at $875 I wouldn't call it a sleeper when an $1 gold 1917 McKinley with an 875 population goes for $725.
On the other hand, it is a patriotic gold coin to share with everyone.
OK... Here's my MS65
Gotta love that Independence Hall reverse!
So we are talking about a MS65. Now this is what I don't understand!!! There are 174 CACs @ $2,940 and then 2200 PCGS @ $1500 with $2150 for plus. GC just sold a CAC for $2100 and a non-CAC for $1100.
First of all that's big bump for a CAC even though CACs represent 8% of the population. But, second, why the huge discounts at auction?
My first Heritage auction "win" was a 1868 nickel 3 cent piece in PF-66 with a CAC sticker. At that time CAC was not what it is today. I was so excited to win the lot but even more than 15 years later I'm still under water on it. One of the few purchases I am in the red on. Mintage of 600 was still to large to meet demand. Tread carefully and as Joe says, buy what you like.
Mark
Classic commemoratives are an underrated series, honestly you can build a Walker short set and it doesn't feel complete because 1934 or 1941 is arbitrary as a dividing of the series, but you can build a set of just Oregon Trail Halves or Texas Halves or put together a box of 20 on top of one of these sets and it feels complete.
Shield and V nickels aren't that far behind. Seated Liberty coins and Indian Head Cents really steal the show for that era.