1894 Morgans Question

jp84

PCGS finished some Morgans for me last week. An 1894-O that I was hoping was MS, but feared was AU-58, was indeed graded AU-58. I have no issue with the grade, I saw the break in the lustre. When I looked at the pop reports, it seems the 94-O has an abnormal number of AU 55/58 grades compared to other 1894 issues. Could be no explanation for it, but would anyone know if there was a small hoard of AU issues found at some point? Is this people just cracking and re-submitting because of the price jump? Any other theories? QDB's Morgan book does not have any info. I realize I am picking arbitrary dates here, but considering 62-64 as middle MS grades and 55-58 as being pseudo-MS grades (sliders so to speak), here are the numbers that make me wonder:

1894 total pop in 62-64 - 1157 pcs
total pop in 55-58 - 1277 pcs

1894-O total pop in 62-64 - 1119 pcs
total pop in 55-58 - 2137 pcs

1894-S total pop in 62-64 - 3267 pcs
total pop in 55-58 - 917 pcs

Looking at these numbers, I guess you could also ask the reverse question of the 1894-S issue, why so many mid-MS coins compared to AU.

You could also legitimately ask why I think the 50-50 ratio in the 1894-P issue is appropriate, I don't have an answer for my own bias.

Anyway, happy to hear from anyone that has some insight. Pics of my coin are attached in case you are curious, sorry for the iPhone pics, it does look better in hand.

CaptHenway

A possible answer to your question is offered ATS here:

https://boards.ngccoin.com/topic/431598-reply-to-jp84-elsewhere-1894-morgans-question/

Short summary: The Philadelphia Dollars of 1894 were recognized by collectors as being a short mintage in the year of 1894, and it is possible that collectors and non-collectors alike hoarded dollars of that date (regardless of the Mint) out of circulation in the hope that they might be worth a premium some day. Look at all the AU 1883 No Cents hoarded by the public.

That is a very good theory. Not mine, but the guy who posted ATS.

coastaljerseyguy

Well to start the 94-O & S had 10+X the mintage of the 94P. The 94-P is relatively expensive in all grades. Although the 94-O has recently crept up in price, 10-20 years ago the price wasn't that much in any circulated grade. I think an AU53 was <$200 but the MS jumped to > $1,000 in MS61 and even surpassed the 94-S. In MS63 & higher it was triple the price of the 94-S. I believe the 94-O were mostly released into population & circulated. Guess a lot of AU55 -58 were resent hoping for that AU58 - MS grade bump and the pops overstated.

Not sure the reason for the even split for AU-MS 94- P's. I see a lot of circulated low grade crap on EBAY but not a lot of nice ones below high AU range. Not much of a price difference between VF - low AU but also jumps in MS.

lilolme

Looked in Highfill and mentions treasury bag(s) for all three (in 60's) but an extra bag source for 94S. So not sure that gets much differentiation. Does mention 152 million silver dollars released in early 60's by treasury (mostly Uncs or sliders but some circulated) and this mix of dates could impact the numbers. I will also mention that some 350 to 400 million Morgans were melted (to lazy to look up the number). With that many, might expect some reasonable distribution relative to mintage. However, if there were some extra bags of one date or another available for melt, then that could impact the numbers. A lot of if's in this.

124Spider

No idea; but I fit right in, with a 58/CAC 1894-O, a 58 1894-S, and only a 45 1894.

CaptHenway

Most people did not know what mint marks were in 1894. Heaton's book on the subject just came out that year. If there was a rumor going around that said "Save 1894 Dollars!" the people responding to it would have saved ANY 1894 Dollar.