2023 Palladium Eagle
..
Posts: 413 ✭✭✭✭
Hello everyone. I have the complete set of Palladium Eagles through 2022 and noticed this years mintage is scheduled/limited to be 6,000 which is one of the lowest mintages in the series. Does anyone know how many have been produced up to this point? (I cannot find the mintage figures to save my life........ugh) and when they usually cut off the opportunity to purchase them if they don't sell out? Not sure I want to pay such a hefty premium right now for a coin that has only $1275 or so of palladium in it and even the ones on eBay have quite a high premium with third party certification. Would hate to miss out on a key date coin but not willing to get taken on it either. I see the Morgan and Peace dollars are still available which means they may have over-guessed the limit and demand on them by a lot.
Comments
4253 sold through Sunday 9/17:
https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/cumulative-sales
Kind of interesting that you’ve collected the set so far, and acknowledge this is a key date coin in the series, but are refusing to purchase one? Seems counterintuitive
Well, yeah. With a mintage of 400K, there is a lot of room to overestimate demand. With 6K, not so much.
This is a classic case of wanting to have your cake and eat it too. Very low mintage coins are going to have very high premiums. By definition.
If you want a steal, you are going to have to wait YEARS, hope nobody ever wants however many the Mint ends up selling before they are pulled, AND hope that the price of palladium continues to drop. Otherwise, you are either going to pay up or be okay with having a hole in your set.
Because, in the short term, no one is going to pay the Mint's premium just to turn around and give it to you at a discount. And the Mint just does not run sales on low mintage precious metal items. They will melt them before ever conditioning us to wait around for deals.
Mintages:
2017 Mint State (bullion) 15,000
2018-W Proof 14,986
2019-W Reverse Proof 18,775
2020-W Uncirculated 9,742
2021-W Proof 5,170
2021 Mint State (bullion) 8,700
2022-W Reverse Proof 7,360
2023-W Uncirculated has an assigned 6,000 maximum mintage. There are 899 still listed as available. Not sure of actual sales to date until the new data comes out Sunday. Between 4,252 and 5,101 sold to date, and the Mint will be selling for a long time. The 2021-W Proof is the key so far.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
chasing declining sales in a modern mint series is called race to the bottom.
sure there is a lower issue, but i see lower sales into the future. this yearly issue is mandated by law, so the question will be how many drop out over the years. the first spouse series is limited by the once every several years between passing. but those collectors are down to north of a thousand from a start of 10+x more sales.
i see barbara bush was 2,000 - https://catalog.usmint.gov/barbara-bush-2020-first-spouse-gold-uncirculated-coin-20PC.html
don't think premiums will come down on past issues. i expect someone will true auction one and find out they won't hit the BINs, but people are listing these with BINs
here's an oops - https://www.ebay.com/itm/285456034682?hash=item4276816b7a:g:gYwAAOSwOK9k8fVG
here's an auction oops on a bullion - https://www.ebay.com/itm/256199471140?hash=item3ba6adb024:g:3TwAAOSwWBBk7Pp~
but these generally don't see spot plus a small. i did get one for me near spot as a 69 in an auction. i was lucky. even more lucky is i upped it to 70 with a re-sub. but that is rare too. do you have a lot of time to haunt ebay for palladium bargains?
This is my opinion too, where I expressed similar sentiments in the recent thread on this same series.
I use a much narrower definition of "key" date, so no US NCLT will ever meet it. Even if I didn't, looking at the mintages in the above post, this coin doesn't qualify anyway.
The closest one to me is the 95-W ASE, measured by the relative price and how collectors apparently view it.
I've been burned several times with "key dates." Back in college I spent $300 for a BU 1949S Franklin (I was making a whopping $2.35 an hour way back then) when it was a hot coin. Fast forward to today and it's a mere fraction of what I paid for it. Same with the DCAM 70 Ikes when they started with the TPG. I bought several of the DCAM 69's and a few DCAM 70's at rather hefty prices and now those "scare" coins are flooding the market......so I'm a bit more careful now. I also seem to find a few "sleepers" in Great Collection auctions which keeps me a bit more watchful for the coins I need. I just feel sorry for some of the folks who paid $35K and up for a 70 DCAM 1995W SE when now they're being sold for practically half that. ;-) Cheers, karl
Damn now I want one …
(Yes I have a problem)
The difference in this case is you would be purchasing the coin direct from the mint for issue price. The markup is production costs, and it resonates throughout all precious metal pricing from the mint. This is not as risky as buying a peak of the market Franklin, and if anything, palladium spot has dropped over $1,000, providing a nice discount from what coins in this set have been selling for.
The problem that is giving me wet feet about doing this is that my entire set is 70's and if I buy direct from the mint I risk getting a 69 or lower (seems to be my luck with submitting just about everything lately ) from a TPG service if I send it in and will have to buy another to match the rest of the set. I know, third world problem....LOL
I understand completely. This is the cheapest available that I know of right now:
https://www.mintstategold.com/us-25-palladium-eagle-2023-w-pcgs-sp70-first-strike-flag-label-w-ogp-23476-23476.html
Thanks! I just might have to take the plunge! 😉
Why can't "the peak of the market " be the issue price? For most Mint commems, it is.
It’s possible that peak of the market is issue price, but in this specific case, it’s definitely not. He was describing paying $300 for a circulation Franklin (even if it came from a mint set priced over face at $3), or a proof ike that cost $5 originally and prices were ~$3,000+ for some pr70s at one point. And palladium spot was like $3,000 recently, now down to $1,300. This is not a peak market event.
Best example of what you’re describing is spot platinum price in 2008. Massive run up to $2,000/oz down to ~$700/oz that same year. We’re past that cycle now in palladium. This coin is a buy for palladium collectors.
Now if you think market “premiums” for palladium eagles will crash down close to $100 over spot, similar to what platinum eagles sell for, then yes this is a peak market right now. I’m just not sure what it’s gonna take for that drop to happen, because I thought it would have shown signs of it already.
This ^^^^. Particularly because they are trying to match mintage to demand by capping it at 6K. The high prices and limited demand make it unattractive to buy for a flip, so there should not be a ton of them floating around in the future.
That said, as I said in my prior post, if demand totally evaporates in the future AND the price of palladium continues to collapse, it might be possible to buy these in the future for significantly less than $2200. Otherwise, I wouldn't bet on it.
Yes, a 50% premium to spot is a lot for a precious metal coin. But not so much for a US Mint issue with a 6K mintage.
The mintage isn't really that low for a non-circulating coin especially at this price. How many buyers want it as a collectible vs. those who are buying it more for financial reasons? I infer it's a minority. How many other coins exist with this supply in this quality at or near this price? The answer is very few, almost exclusively other NCLT and common (mostly pre-1933 US) gold.
This matters to the financial potential because financially motivated buyers are buying it as a substitute for a bullion purchase (of some sort) or an alternative asset (e.g., a limited form of asset diversification).
Those who buy NCLT may view it as equivalent but it's evident those whose primary collecting interest is something else mostly do not and that's a noticeable majority, even at this price level. Closest exception is the ASE where all but a few are much cheaper.
This won't likely happen absent distressed selling. Q1 -Q2 2020 (during the pandemic) and late 2008/early 2009 (during the GFC) had the conditions for it, but the financial duress was temporary.
Caveat is that palladium (and platinum) are industrial metals, not a monetary metal as gold.
Respectfully disagree. Bullion buyers don't usually pay 50% premiums for anything, the recent insanity in ASEs notwithstanding.
The mintage is low, period. Other NCLTs sell 300K+. 6K is low. As to how many buyers want it as a collectible, I'd guess pretty much all of them, since it's a pretty crappy palladium play at a 50% premium to spot.
You are correct, however, insofar as the demand is relatively small. That's why the Mint is making 6K of them as compared to 10K gold uncirculated Eagles, or 22,500 proofs. Those are not precious metal plays either.
As to financial potential, only time will tell. They are nice coins, and there will only ever be 6K of them (or maybe even less).
As to platinum and palladium not being monetary (precious) metals, that might be true historically, but not today, with mints making legal tender coins out of them, and pricing them at least partially based on the metal content. If the world agreed with you, exactly zero $25 Palladium Eagles would be sold at $2200.
So, in 2023, it is a monetary metal being sold at a 50% premium due to scarcity. Not a $25 coin being sold at a 8800% premium.
You're looking at NCLT silver for comparison. Look at the 1st spouse mintages which are a much better comparison for a palladium coin. Look at proof Platinum Eagles. 6000 is NOT a low mintage. It's 3x what most of the 1st spouse coins landed at. And it's in the range of a lot of the later platinum which struggled to get to 10k
https://www.moderncoinmart.com/blog/first-spouse-gold-mintage-chart
https://platinumeagleguide.com/mintages/
And, maybe these will end up there as well. Until the Mint just kills the program.
In the meantime, this is the premium the Mint now charges for this type of coin, mirroring what other world mints do with similar issues. And 6K is low for this series, since it isn't a First Spouse coin. Only the 2021 had a lower final mintage, and these might not get to 6K before they are removed from sale.
Granted, it's not a silver coin. But, so what? The Mint sells over 20K proof gold Eagles each year. But, when they add a privy mark to one and reduce the mintage by 90%, everyone goes nuts and the value skyrockets. Maybe these get discovered one day. Maybe not. But, they ARE low mintage, precious metal American Eagles. Just like the platinum coins you referenced, which are also not inexpensive.
I have mintages going back to 2017 for this coin, so I don't have to compare it to other, totally unrelated, coins with low interest. Maybe the Mint sells 3x as many of these as compared to First Spouse coins because the classic winged liberty motif is more popular than random women who happened to be married to American presidents.
Maybe the Mint should just start putting them in sealed boxes and selling them for $4,500, with limited edition labels that they print themselves and include in each and every box. How many would you and Freddie be in for then? Would the answer be different if you had a 1 in 1,000 shot at a $20,000 golden label, or golden coin? 😂
proof platinum issues had mintage issues.
one day in the midst of declining sales someone cut max mintages too much. they sold out. it was a flip. they later raised max mintage and they didn't sell out - a "dud." the dud created a lack of flippers. mintages resumed their decline.
the Pd once flipped. If they don't drastically cut the mintages "by mistake," I see low mintages.
I warned of a race to the bottom earlier. i'll caveat with it's early in the issue's life.who knows how low they go. one thing that hurt the spouses besides growing apathy, was the increasing price of gold. for Pd, these are the same art on repeated finishes over and over. on the one hand we have age in proof and ms, and then these but with the other hand these are in Pd. should the price of Pd start rising again we could see sales drop off again.
One thing, that may could keep the dream alive, they could try minting more bullion ones. there is a demand for Pd coins. it all comes down to bullion premiums.
If the mint begins to release bullion palladium issues every year, that will kill the premiums on the collector mint issue ones. The perfect example is the 2014 platinum mint state eagles. Mint took a hiatus after 2008, and premiums soared because supply was limited. Once they began producing again in 2014 demand was strong, then 2016 onward premiums dropped on everything including fractionals. Fractionals have recovered, but 1oz coins are ~spot + $100.
Your comments remind me of the author of "Modern Commemorative Coins" and "Top 50 Moderns". I bought both books because the psychology interests me. He consistently writes as if NCLT is viewed equivalently to circulating coinage when it isn't.
In both books, he compares NCLT mintages to the mintages of both circulation strikes and proofs. The relevant comparison isn't the raw mintage, it's the supply in "high" quality which can vary by coin. No one or virtually no one is buying low or mid-circulated quality coins in this price range as an alternative to NCLT.
For coinage in this price range in this quality, the supply (mintage) is not low.
The pool of potential buyers isn't that large for $2,000+ coins and for NCLT, most of them are almost certainly buying it primarily for financial reasons. There is a middle ground between buying it over strict bullion vs. coins bought mostly or entirely as a collectible. My inference is that NCLT is bought to capitalize on both rising metal prices and rising collectible premium.
I don't believe these coins are interesting enough as a collectible to enough collectors to sell for much higher prices, absent a much higher price for the metal. There is a liquidity preference but at noticeably higher prices, these coins aren't competitive as a collectible vs. the alternatives.
Gold is a real monetary metal. The others aren't. That's what the market price demonstrates or else gold being so much more common than both wouldn't sell for noticeably more now. The same increasingly applies to silver the last several decades though less so. This is presumably a very unpopular view but it's the best explanation for the relative prices. Stamping an arbitrary face value on a coin blank and declaring it legal tender doesn't change this perception. There are other metals selling for high prices too (some more than all of these) which aren't fabricated in coin form, yet. Many coin collectors view palladium as a precious metal but the general population doesn't, including those with the most money who buy a lot of gold and to a much lower extent, silver.
The US mints prices are so over priced they might as well make them out of rhodium.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
The Mint sells over 20K proof gold Eagles each year. But, when they add a privy mark to one and reduce the mintage by 90%, everyone goes nuts and the value skyrockets.
Yes, because of the different perception between the metals.
The above post indicates eight coins currently in the series. How much is that at current prices? $15,000 to $20,000? Minted for the foreseeable future, it will become unaffordable to a noticeable proportion of the prospective collector base. This is the same drawback to the First Spouse series, though I agree the Palladium has a big design preference advantage.
If a collector likes the design, they can buy one coin, but I don't see that this buyer has much of an incentive to pay a big premium for a lower mintage. This is one aspect where I agree with the author of the two books I referenced.
I agree. It's the same pattern we saw with platinum eagles. I wouldn't be surprised if 6000 seems like a lot, 3 years from now.
The Mint killed its own “golden goose” by creating ridiculous premiums for it precious metal coins and tossed in (here and there) some “Willy Wonka” autographs of folks you wouldn’t recognize in the street if you literally walked into them, in order to drum up some (non-numismatic) interest. The end result - the collapse of collector interest in the precious metal coins and the “race to the bottom” of the mintage charts to see which precious metal coins “stick”. We know for a fact 1945 proof gold Eagle coins work as collectibles (but even that figure is too high for other gold bullion coins!) around 30,000 silver eagles work as collectibles and the low to mid 2,000’s work as platinum collectibles. I suspect around 3,000 mintage could work as Palladium collectibles. Give it a few more years to possibly get there. I bought a total of 0 of the 2023 Palladium coins as the mintage / risk-reward ratio seemed too high. Even at the current sales level, if they didn’t sell a single addition coin, I am not excited about overpaying the Mint for the coin today. A final mintage in the series of around 3,000 would get my interest level rising greatly (even without the Willy Wonka signatures). Just my 2 cents. Wondercoin.
I hear you, and this great for you, from your perspective, with respect to being able to resell immediately at a significant profit. OTOH, this is EXACTLY what the Mint is doing. Selling what it can at what the market will bear. Not creating immediate rarities for people like you to profit from.
1945 gold proof Eagles were a lottery win gift for those lucky enough to get one, but the Mint always leaves a lot of money on the table when it does something like that. This "race to the bottom" is just fine from the Mint's perspective. They will just keep lowering mintages every year until the series finds its floor, or until the Mint decides there is not enough demand to continue the series.
I'm sure you've noticed that this is what they now do with every formerly "hot" item -- try to match mintage to demand, rather than intentionally under minting them in order to create a frenzy and robust secondary market. Platinum Eagles, Gold Eagles, Palladium Eagles, Silver Eagles, Morgan and Peace Dollars, you name it. The game today, for them, is not flooding the market while capturing the bulk of the numismatic premium for itself, rather than selling for a "non-ridiculous" premium and leaving the spoils for you in the secondary market.
While Mitch is a dealer, he has also shown a willingness to be patient as with the spouse coins. Could you point to where he said he didn't buy it because he couldn't immediately flip it?
Sure! "I bought a total of 0 of the 2023 Palladium coins as the mintage / risk-reward ratio seemed too high. Even at the current sales level, if they didn’t sell a single addition coin, I am not excited about overpaying the Mint for the coin today. A final mintage in the series of around 3,000 would get my interest level rising greatly (even without the Willy Wonka signatures). Just my 2 cents."
He has no interest with a 6K mintage at a 50% premium to spot, when only 4K+ sold in the first two weeks. Lower that mintage to 3K, and Mitch is in, even without a Willy Wonka signature. If you don't understand his logic, maybe if you ask him nicely he will explain it to you.
The fact that Mitch was patient with spouse coins is neither here nor there. The fact that he isn't interested in something unless the mintage is 2/3 demonstrated demand is the issue.
The fact that the mint is now trying to match mintage to demand, rather than intentionally under producing, letting us fight over them, and then sending Mitch into the secondary market to buy what he can for a quick flip, is the issue.
The fact that the Mint is now pricing its products at "ridiculous premiums," rather than leaving that for dealers to do in the secondary market, is the issue.
You are correct jmlanzaf. Flipping is mostly immaterial to me (although my son Justin at Monstercoinmart enjoys to flip some when he can and actually likes the product). But, putting him aside, I mostly buy for the long haul. I’m just “dusting off” many of the 2006-W Platinum Statue of Liberty Burnished coins I bought and set aside 17 years ago! 😂 Ditto for the 2008-W proof platinum coins I bought when the mint put them back up for sale - I expected big things for those coins, but 2015-W mintage ended that. The 2008-W burnished platinum-I’ll dust those off a few years from now. I was “saved” on my miscalculation on spouse due to spot gold rising sharply. But, that is really why I bought them in the first place - 2 ways to win with the spouse gold - numismatically for one way and winning on the spot gold rising as the other.
And NJCoin - you are correct too! But, I think you are giving too much credit to the Mint. They can barely figure out what to honor on the coins (at least the citizens group is helping them some now). Properly matching mintage to demand is a very difficult task. If they really knew exactly how to match mintage to demand, they would have never set mintages we have already seen this year at what they did. And, what’s with the Mint still selling 2017 High Reliefs 6 years later - would anyone like to explain that?
Wondercoin.
And, of course, you know way more about this stuff than both of us combined. Getting mintages right is probably more art than science. From my perspective, the big change is that they are now trying to match production to demand, without coming out and saying they will mint to demand. Because that has historically acted to kill demand!
And, they are doing a pretty decent job. Prices in the secondary market are not collapsing while everyone seems to be able to get what they want. As for the 2017 High Relief, who knows? They way overproduced, and for some reason think they are worth trying to sell instead of just melting them back down. Maybe political pressure due to the image on the obverse?
United States Mint accounting.
Currently we are in FY2023. There is a possibility the 2017 and 2018 American Liberty Gold coins are melted in FY2025.
A Possibility...
This has been one of the best reads on this board in a long time. Nice work guys
Martin
Mint report 2023 AM EAGLE PALLADIUM UNC 1 OZ 4,471 sales dated 9/24/2023
Also currently showing 840 available @$2,200 each. Spot at $1,250. Sales are trickling in, but I doubt this will get to 5,000 this year. It will probably be one that is sold next year as well, to get rid of likely surplus.
Maybe around 5,300-5,400 were minted of the max 6,000?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
‘’And, they are doing a pretty decent job. Prices in the secondary market are not collapsing while everyone seems to be able to get what they want. As for the 2017 High Relief, who knows? They way overproduced, and for some reason think they are worth trying to sell instead of just melting them back down. Maybe political pressure due to the image on the obverse?’’
Your theory on the 2017 would be disappointing if true.
When you say prices in the secondary market are “not collapsing” - can you imagine what the heirs of grandma or grandpa will be offered for a 2023 Palladium coin when they walk into nearly every coin shop to sell off their ounce of palladium in the very near future? Around melt- yes? A 75% drop in 6 months (more or less based on where spot melt goes in the meantime) seems like a total collapse to me. You agree?
Wondercoin
Unless you are buying and holding bullion (with the hope it always rises in value) near spot, that can be said for nearly every “numismatic premium” coin, Mitch.
Uneducated heirs, beware.
Miles- the only difference is for the vast majority of the gold Eagle program the premium on mint ordering was around $250-$350 over spot, give or take. Yes? Then, fast forward to today at $800-$900 over spot. Night and day scenarios on the potential for collapsing prices and heavy losses in the short to mid term-agree? Wondercoin.
Edited to add- easy example. The 2017 High Relief the Mint is currently selling for $2,850. Highest dealer buy prices in the country on that coin I believe are around $2100-$2,200. PCGS-PR70DCAM graded coins can be had for far less too as I recall. Instant Big loser at $2,850 current level - yes?
2017-W Gold $100 American Liberty High Relief 225th Anniversary U.S. Mint First Strike PCGS Proof-70 DCAM - recent GC sale at $2,250 hammer plus BP!!
Palladium back down to $2150 ...
Mitch
I'm afraid it's no different than the heir(s) selling a 2023 AGE or Buffalo Proof coin back to the shop.
A knowlegable hier would hopefully, at least, check online sold prices.
No, I don't agree. I don't think anyone paying 50% above melt is buying it as a bullion investment, and I don't think they'll be liquidating in 6 months at melt. You are a well respected dealer. Please keep us updated on how many you are able to pick up anywhere close to melt in the next year. For that matter, how many of any vintage now sell for anywhere near $1200, other than maybe the first year bullion issue that was designed to sell as bullion?
When I said "not collapsing" I was not talking specifically about these, but about all of the precious metal numismatic products that sell for huge premiums at the Mint and seem to be holding their value in the secondary market (ASE proofs, burnished, Morgan and Peace Dollars, gold proofs, etc.).
Yeah, great example. A 6 year old coin with a 100K mintage. And, I already said it was inexplicable as to why the Mint has not pulled them after all these years. So, sure, anyone paying that premium at the Mint for that coin with that mintage has no idea what they are doing.
Apples and oranges to 2023 product. Show me $1200 dealer bids for 2023 Palladium Eagles.
Ya missed my point, Mitch-agree?
I do appreciate your data and research, though.
We are fortunate that we (and a few other seasoned forum members) got to participate in the best (salad) years for PM Mint purchases (and short-mid term gains). Your point..
Mitch. I'm afraid it's no different than the heir(s) selling a 2023 AGE or Buffalo Proof coin back to the shop. A knowlegable hier would hopefully, at least, check online sold prices.
Hi Sweetpie. As NJCoin suggests, the 2023 AGE or Buffalo proof or Palladium won’t come to the shop at melt, whereas the 2017 HR has a much higher chance that it will.
Miles- those were the days my friend!
Wondercoin
Along the same lines, back in 2007 I purchased from the mint a complete set of PF Platinum coins including two extra $25 coins, one being a reverse proof.
At the time Platinum was much more expensive that gold, certainly not the case now.
All these graded PF70 by NGC.
>
So for the last couple of years, I have been wondering how to get of these without taking a real bath!
If I had went with the gold set, I would have did well, even at bullion prices!
I need to have my head examined because I don’t know what I was thinking buying Platinum!😳
>
One saving grace, this was the last time I ever fooled with Moderns!
I am just chalking it up to being young and foolish and when I actually sell and take the loss, I will just consider it paying my tuition!😂
Just keeping it up to date....this is the lowest I've seen it in awhile.
Oh sure, just what I needed to see.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I don't know why, but I really thought this was going to go up...nope, it went down. Drum roll please.........(is this the lowest it's ever been on the palladiums?)
I purchased my first Pd Eagles at $1179, MS70; for direct Mint issue though, probably close.
Great news. A drop of a few hundred more will get my total interest. For now, $950 over spot on a $2000 bullion coin is too much premium.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
But $950 over spot on an $1800 coin is just right?