Exploring the toned Morgan market - Part 2 - (via Legend Auction 8/20/23 vs prior sales at GC, etc)
U1chicago
Posts: 6,194 ✭✭✭✭✭
You may recall a thread from last month where I did a dive into a subset of toned Morgans (see thread linked below). Well Legend had another auction that inspired me to do a part 2. This was not a Regency Sale; it was a Sunday night event. However, Legend put some more advertising into this one, even giving it the “TONER PALOOZA” nickname. And there was a distinct focus on toners with 146 total lots. Just like last time, I saw a handful of familiar coins. I chased a few (unsuccessfully) and watched others to see where the market stood. While there were plenty of results that ranged from subpar to great, I have decided to focus on ten coins because they had a clear connection to prior sales (and so make for a better comparison than those that I can’t find prior history on). There was also an 11th coin that I already made a standalone post for (the 1904-O MS 64 that I was most intent on winning but did not succeed).
Prior auction thread:
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1093827/a-dive-into-the-toned-morgan-market-via-legend-auction-7-27-23-vs-prior-sales-at-gc-etc
1904-O thread:
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1094734/a-good-night-at-legend-for-toners-i-got-blown-out
We will start with an 1884-O MS 64+ that was highly rated (9+ toning score) and came from the Aurora Borealis Collection (not noted on the label though). This coin has made at least four appearances at auction over the last year and that might be impacting its recent value (not as fresh and some might wonder why it is being sold so often). I like the colors but from the one video I’ve seen, I would personally not stretch as high as any of the results. We see somewhat of a seesaw with the pricing and the final Legend result just beat out the previous low it reached at GC (not necessarily a win for the consigner though if accounting for the fee).
GC (Sept 2022): 3,487.50
David Lawrence (Jan 2023): 3,910
GC (May 2023): 2,933.74
Legend (Aug 2023): 3,055.00
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1226523/1884-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-CAC-Green-Toned
https://www.pcgs.com/cert/03633498
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1355565/1884-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-CAC-Green-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165719992/-1-1884-o-pcgs-ms64--cac
Next up is one of two coins on this list that did not sell. This 1885-O was in an NGC holder without CAC (which tend to be two factors that steer many seasoned Legend buyers away). It did have a star, came from the Aurora Borealis Collection, and looked to be quite nice. What held me back was the reverse (I consider the toning there to be a negative), the fact that I could not tell what the coin would actually look like (GC photo, Legend photo, and video posted on Instagram were all different enough from each other to prevent me from forming a solid opinion), and that it was one of the early lots (I-and maybe others-were saving their funds for the nicer options later in the auction). I’m guessing it will show up again in a future auction and should sell (might not hurt to drop the starting bid $50-$100 from the $650 that Legend had).
GC (Apr 2023): 653.49
Legend (Aug 2023): unsold….650 starting bid, meaning 763.75 with the fee
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1348614/1885-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-NGC-MS-63-226-152-133-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165719994/-1-1885-o-ngc-ms63
Now we have a minor surprise; this 1881-S PCGS MS 64 reverse toner beat my expectations and did better at Legend than GC. The colors were nice but the breaks in the toning are clear enough to be distracting (in my opinion). Sometimes breaks can blend in with the toning and not hurt too much but this looks like a case where one would see those breaks each time, making it harder to reach the typical high toner premiums.
GC (Feb 2022): 465.75
Legend (Aug 2023): 675.63
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1120225/1881-S-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720021/-1-1881-s-pcgs-ms64
The second of the unsold lots had a similar theme to the first: NGC slabbed without CAC. The starting bid of $900 wasn’t unreasonable for a 67 star toner but it just must not have caught the attention of the bidders (colors are decent but not quite enough to be considered high end). The coin used to reside in a PCGS OGH 66 (with CAC) and whoever cracked it seems to have made a mistake as the coin did not make a profit from its first auction appearance and now has gone unsold.
GC (Jun 2022): 990 (was a PCGS MS 66 CAC)
GC (Aug 2022): 1,111.50 (became an NGC MS 67 Star)
Legend (Aug 2023): unsold….900 starting bid, meaning 1,057.50 with the fee
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1166769/1881-S-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-66-CAC-Green-OGH-Toned
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1214679/1881-S-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-NGC-MS-67-226-152-133-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720026/-1-1881-s-ngc-ms67
An earlier example I mentioned being surprised that a break in the toning did not stop a stronger result. Well with this 1882-S MS 65+ we have another reverse toner with a break. However, here it seems to blend better. The color palette is different and part of the coin might be considered too dark (although I think it is not). This one did not surprise me as it sold for about the same rate (not great for the consigner, especially since they also spent money to reholder it to face reverse forward at some point after it sold at GC).
GC (Jul 2022): 718.12
Legend (Aug 2023): 734.38
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1138259/1882-S-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-65-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720032/-1-1882-s-pcgs-ms65-
We arrive at the only coin that I somewhat regret not bidding more, an 1883-O MS 65. This coin has an unusually cool pattern (almost like the Eagle is wrapped in a ribbon). I was the direct underbidder and only stopped because I wanted to focus on the 1904-O mentioned in the intro. It sold for a significant discount to a recent GC sale but at about the same rate as an earlier GC sale. I think the $675 level is more appropriate than the $1k+ result.
GC (Feb 2021): 674.99
GC (Jun 2022): 1,041.96
Legend (Aug 2023): 675.63
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/947259/1883-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-65-Toned
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1180916/1883-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-65-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720042/-1-1883-o-pcgs-ms65
And now the sole coin that I have previously owned, an 1884-O MS 64 end roll toner. The pattern is distinct and the color is solid. I originally bought this coin from a bad eBay photo for only 105 back in 2016. Later that year, I sold it for 275 (a much nicer return than I’m typically used to). The coin has since gained a CAC sticker and did fairly well for a reverse toner, closing just under 500.
eBay auction with bad photo (2016): 105
eBay buy-it-now with better photo (2016): 275
Legend (Aug 2023): 499.38
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720047/-1-1884-o-pcgs-ms64-cac
Not all upgrades are successful-let me present this 1884-O MS 65. It is a nice full coverage obverse toner that sold in 2021 as part of the Lava Skylight Collection on GC. I don’t know who that collector was but they had many nice toners that sold over the course of several GC auctions. Most of the coins were in older holders (mid 2000s and earlier) and were not maxed out. I have seen a handful over the years end up in higher graded holders. This was another such coin that went from an older PCGS blue holder 64 to a new 65. It sold for less as a 65. It did sell for more as a 65 than when it appeared a second time in the 64 holder but considering auction plus grading fees, the result was probably a break even (if it was the same person selling).
GC (Oct 2021): 1,773.66 (as a PCGS 64 CAC)
GC (Apr 2022): 1,240.88 (as a PCGS 64 CAC)
Legend (Aug 2023): 1,586.25 (as a PCGS 65)
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1002459/1884-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-CAC-Green-Toned
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1144535/1884-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-CAC-Green-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720048/-1-1884-o-pcgs-ms65
Another example of upgrades not always paying off was the 1885-O MS 65+ reverse toner. However, this is a more curious case. The coin was in a new PCGS 65 holder and not only added the plus but it also gained a TrueView photo. Still it sold for slightly more at GC in 2021 than it did at Legend in 2023. If we add in the grading and auction fees, it’s an even worse result than the raw numbers suggest. Despite the nice colors, maybe the max value for this coin is around $800 unless it somehow finds its way into a 66 or 67 holder.
GC (Oct 2021): 815.61 (as a PCGS 65)
Legend (Aug 2023): 793.13 (as a PCGS 65+)
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1068984/1885-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-65-Toned
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720056/-1-1885-o-pcgs-ms65-
Finally we end with one of the biggest duds of the night, an 1896 obverse crescent toner. This coin brought over $3,400 in February of this year and then shed around $1,400 by August, selling for a hair under $2k. The Legend photo from February appears more vivid and my guess is that the coin might be darker in person than what the photo suggests. So it’s possible that someone was overly optimistic the first time around (maybe they did not see the coin in person) and with the previous high bidder out of the auction, it landed much lower (and if the coin is truly dark, then even the $2k could be too high).
Legend (Feb 2023): 3,407.50
Legend (Aug 2023): 1,997.50
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/145103460
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720067/-1-1896-pcgs-ms65-cac
Comments
Photos added here in the same order as in the post above
Thanks for the education, and for taking the time. Very interesting.
Very nice write-up and useful comparison! It is always interesting how unstable the price can be for toned coins. I am part of the reason for the drop in the 1896. I was the underbidder in the previous sale and I have not seen the coin in person. One of my buddies said he didn’t love the coin (I found out after the first auction) so I decided to not even bid this time. I also happened to be focused on many other coins that night so didn’t feel like trying to win too many at once. I bid lightly on the other 1896, the 1897, and the 1921, all of which sold for substantially less this time around.
Well that explains the 1896 result (at least in part). I have an 1887 that has a similar pattern that I like more and it was a fraction of the price (it is a lower grade but that doesn’t matter much to me). And while 1887 is a common date, the 1896 is almost as common among toners (it might be one tier above the most common dates).
I also wasn’t the biggest fan of the 1897 or 1921 (at least from the photos). I liked the 1889 but that went above where I wanted to be.
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/165720065/-1-1889-pcgs-ms64?ref=catalog
Here is the 1887 that I have (MS 64):
Athough I don't collect Morgans, I find your report with pictures and price comparisons very interesting. Thank you sir.
Great report, thanks for taking the time to write this up. There were several Morgans in this sale that I liked. I have many similar feelings about the ones that you have posted. Some I thought might be too dark, so I avoided them. There were others were nice but I just didn't want another date/mint that I already had 2 or 3 of. However, you can blame me for the 1889. That was the one that I ended up winning and I wanted it for a few different reasons. It looks like to me that the colors will really pop in hand, and hopefully I won't be disappointed when I get it. The other reason I wanted it was because it was not a common date for color, and it looks above average for color for the date. There was an 1889 that I passed on about five years ago that came out of a collection that was local to me. I had the chance to purchase it for $1600 it before it went to Heritage. The color was really nice, but I decided that I wanted a reverse toned Battle Creek instead. I'm not kicking myself for passing on it, but it was nice and a higher grade than the 1889 from Legend. I'm not sure that the color is better than the one from this past Sunday though.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/morgan-dollars/1889-1-ms64-pcgs-cac-pcgs-population-12797-2803-ngc-census-17577-2411-ms64-mintage-21-726-812-pcgs-/a/1291-8554.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515#
Interesting write up the only thing I don’t understand is why people pay high money for reverse toners. I like both sides to have attractive toning, but I am okay with just the obverse as that’s the real important side
I collect toners but I won't pay thousands of dollars for them. It's just got to much sway for my checkbook. Who wants to overpay by $1000 or in some cases 100%. I have some really nice toners I've bought for $300-$750 and I am comfortable with them.
Having $3000 tied up in one toner that could be worth $1000 when I go to sell it off would be painful.
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Congrats on winning the 1889! I think it will be very bright and among the better toners for that date (which is a tougher one). I’ve only seen a handful and they tend to be bid up (just like the last one that was at Legend in the prior auction).
As far as that coin you mentioned from HA, I’ve posted about it as well (don’t recall if it was here or another forum). When researching sales for 1889, I found that coin had upgraded from MS 64 to MS 66. Someone did quite well!
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1189731/1889-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-66-Toned
I’m the opposite, I don’t get why people pay so much more for obverse toners. I know that it’s been that way in the market, so I recognize it but the reasons aren’t super compelling to me. The best that I’ve heard is that based on the design/layout, it’s harder for a Morgan to tone on the obverse. That might be true although I’m not certain. I also prefer the reverse design of the Morgan.
In terms of two sided toning, that is harder. Many bag toned Morgans only had one side exposed against the bags they were in. And the ones in coin trays or sitting in windowsills also only had one side exposed. You would need album toning or other fortunate circumstances to have both sides tone.
Thanks for all the research and great write-up & analysis. Although I wouldn't call the toner market a niche market, if there are only a small # of folks chasing the coin to new highs in an auction, too big a risk if even 1 drops out in the next resell, the realized loss could be severe % wise. None of the reverse toners above really impresses me to pay multiples for common dates.
This is a great writeup...thanks for taking the time! Very interesting with the results and the grade changes. The 67* is suspect IMO and although I know it is hard to grade from photos the obverse looks no better than some 65's or 66's that I have seen.
Thanks again!
K
Appears to me that the affordable material is hanging in there value/price wise, and the upper end is softening.
Thanks @U1chicago for the insight into this market space and your time writing it up.
Superb write-up. Thanks!
Drunner
(Former owner of BagBurn 2009-2020)
Judging if one overpaid on a toner can be difficult until one tries to sell it because often times there is no great comparison. The ones with great eye appeal and vivid colors tend to attract plenty of spirited bidding. Now if one needed to resell quickly, that is often a recipe for lower prices (coin is not as fresh, your bid is no longer part of the action, and there might not be enough time to have new people enter the market).
I do tend to be in the same camp as you when it comes to how much I pay for toners (or pretty much any coin). I try to stick under $1k because that is where I'm more comfortable. I will stretch past that for a coin that really appeals to me but most times I'm perfectly happy with an MS 63 toner in the $500s rather than an MS 67 in the $3k+ range.
It's definitely not a niche market and I believe the number of people participating has grown over the years. I've seen more people on Instagram involved in toners and even at shows it appears more tables have at least a few toners in their case (compared to the first shows I attended around 10 years ago). But, like any auction for a non-generic item, a single bidder dropping out can be a big deal, especially when you get into the higher dollar amounts.
The 67* used to be a PCGS 66 CAC in an older green holder. I don't question the toning but I think it's a mid level toner at best. I have seen nicer 65s and 66s too but I have also seen worse 66s and 67s. So I would say 66 was a fair market grade while 67 is pushing it (but still somewhat understandable).
I would amend that to say that the mid pricing tier (1.5k-3k range) is softening a bit. This auction did not have any coins that I would consider to be on the upper end (4k+). And even with the softening, the levels are still well above the 2015-2019 pricing that I was used to before the 2020 bump.
I would agree that someone did really well on that coin. I never imagined it getting into a 66 holder with the big contact mark on Liberty's forehead. My thought would have been a 65 at best. The picture above hides the contact mark very well though. Not so much with the picture from Heritage.
If nicely toned coins already sell for multiples of the grade, do TPGs need to still market grade an uptick on the coin's technical grade? I agree the 89 above is super nice & would love to own if money was not a consideration, but I have 64's with less chatter on the cheek. If it graded 64+ wouldn't it still have sold for the same amount due to toning effect?
That has been something that I’ve argued too; there shouldn’t be big grade bumps for color. A technical 64 with nice color sells for a premium, say 66 price guide (as an example). It then gets market graded up to a 66. Does that mean people still pay 66 levels? In my experiences, it does not. Now it sells at a premium to 66 guide (say 67/67+ levels).