1887 Morgan PCGS MS63 Reality vs Price Guide

ajaan

The coin has a PCGS Price Guide of $100. Recently one sold off eBay for a closing price of $51. I know, just one sample, but still interesting IMO.

U1chicago

The price guide is too optimistic on these. There are some available on eBay now for $75 buy it now. Auction results are in the $60-$75 range lately. And you always have some auctions that seem to be missed (bad end time, bad photos, just not enough people watching, etc) so a few will end up selling for less than expected.

jerseyben

On the flipside to this, GS has it at $71. In all fairness, someone got a killer deal on the $51 ebay example. However, $100 is definitely unrealistic.

Steven59

Price guide is a starting point, then you go down from there

may

Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

MFeld

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

jmlanzaf

@MFeld said:

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

Agree. Statistically, the impact of toners on price would be minimal.

Does PCGS publish their methodology for determining price?

ajaan

@jerseyben said:
On the flipside to this, GS has it at $71. In all fairness, someone got a killer deal on the $51 ebay example. However, $100 is definitely unrealistic.

Thank you

MFeld

@ajaan said:

@jerseyben said:
On the flipside to this, GS has it at $71. In all fairness, someone got a killer deal on the $51 ebay example. However, $100 is definitely unrealistic.

Thank you

The CDN number is realistic. Did the eBay buyer have to pay a charge for shipping?

braddick

The Morgan in question:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/404391494719

To be fair, this one closed the same day:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/334957789807

And this one closed a few days before:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/334950112467

And this one a few days before that (all of them this month):
https://www.ebay.com/itm/145154749908

I couldn't find another example of the 1887 in MS63 that sold as low as the coin featured in this thread.
A single example does not a market make. We must look at the current averages.

I recently picked up this Dansco Album for .99c (plus shipping):
https://www.ebay.com/itm/285385455269?nma=true&si=y4pzUecbZyGmAcgHs1GEE7%2BeMqE%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
This doesn't mean Morgan dollar Dansco albums are now going cheap.

There will always be deals to be had when one looks long enough. The price guides or averages/values don't respond to these random single encounters.

lilolme

First as asked about is what pcgs price guide is (but not the formula which I doubt there is one).
.

.
Next is a screen shot of the coinfacts page and at the bottom are (3) dealer asking prices. There are more on collectors corner that are in a similar range but up to and over $100.
Looks like the auction are 77, 101 and 80.
.

.
It is interesting that the price is in green and was just moved up from $96 but not anything extreme.

I think the greysheet CPG (collector price guide) is $107 and with cac $115 but I might be out of date on these.
.
Overall the $100 or so seems to not be that far off for average dealer asking prices. What they sell for???

MFeld

@braddick said:
The Morgan in question:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/404391494719

To be fair, this one closed the same day:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/334957789807

And this one closed a few days before:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/334950112467

And this one a few days before that (all of them this month):
https://www.ebay.com/itm/145154749908

I couldn't find another example of the 1887 in MS63 that sold as low as the coin featured in this thread.
A single example does not a market make. We must look at the current averages.

I recently picked up this Dansco Album for .99c (plus shipping):
https://www.ebay.com/itm/285385455269?nma=true&si=y4pzUecbZyGmAcgHs1GEE7%2BeMqE%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
This doesn't mean Morgan dollar Dansco albums are now going cheap.

There will always be deals to be had when one looks long enough. The price guides or averages/values don't respond to these random single encounters.

A fair market value is roughly halfway in between the $51 example and the PCGS price guide.😉

ajaan

@MFeld said:

@ajaan said:

@jerseyben said:
On the flipside to this, GS has it at $71. In all fairness, someone got a killer deal on the $51 ebay example. However, $100 is definitely unrealistic.

Thank you

The CDN number is realistic. Did the eBay buyer have to pay a charge for shipping?

Yes. $2

MFeld

@lilolme said:
First as asked about is what pcgs price guide is (but not the formula which I doubt there is one).
.

.
Next is a screen shot of the coinfacts page and at the bottom are (3) dealer asking prices. There are more on collectors corner that are in a similar range but up to and over $100.
Looks like the auction are 77, 101 and 80.
.

.
It is interesting that the price is in green and was just moved up from $96 but not anything extreme.

I think the greysheet CPG (collector price guide) is $107 and with cac $115 but I might be out of date on these.
.
Overall the $100 or so seems to not be that far off for average dealer asking prices. What they sell for???

I know of several examples which have sold at auction more recently, for less than $80.

MFeld

@ajaan said:

@MFeld said:

@ajaan said:

@jerseyben said:
On the flipside to this, GS has it at $71. In all fairness, someone got a killer deal on the $51 ebay example. However, $100 is definitely unrealistic.

Thank you

The CDN number is realistic. Did the eBay buyer have to pay a charge for shipping?

Yes. $2

Thanks.

lilolme

@MFeld said:

@lilolme said:
First as asked about is what pcgs price guide is (but not the formula which I doubt there is one).
.

.
Next is a screen shot of the coinfacts page and at the bottom are (3) dealer asking prices. There are more on collectors corner that are in a similar range but up to and over $100.
Looks like the auction are 77, 101 and 80.
.

.
It is interesting that the price is in green and was just moved up from $96 but not anything extreme.

I think the greysheet CPG (collector price guide) is $107 and with cac $115 but I might be out of date on these.
.
Overall the $100 or so seems to not be that far off for average dealer asking prices. What they sell for???

I know of several examples which have sold at auction more recently, for less than $80.

Oh I have no doubt. I only pointed to the auction on coinfacts because they were on the screen shot.

The pcgs price guide definition that I posted a screen shot of was 'average dealer asking price'. It then states what the sources could be and auction is one but others refer to dealer prices. I noted the ones (3) on the coinfacts page and that there were more on collectors corner that were in that range but also up to and over 100.

I don't know exactly were pcgs sources their dealer prices but I might think collectors corner that is a division of collectors universe might be one of them and why I mentioned it. Below is only a partial page of page 3. Page 1 and 2 is taken up by Bonanza which is at the top of this screen shot. Could not get the price in the shot but it is 99.95 but they have them in the 90's range mostly.

So looking at these numbers I think this might be where the pcgs price guide number is coming from on this one price for their average dealer asking price. If at a show someone might say would you take $80 and a little grumble with an okay.

If the greysheet CPG I noted is not outdated then it is also in this upper range.

I am not defending the price as good to buy off eBay or other sources but simply trying to point out where the pcgs price guide might be coming from on this one price. I don't know the formulas though.

MFeld

@lilolme said:

@MFeld said:

@lilolme said:
First as asked about is what pcgs price guide is (but not the formula which I doubt there is one).
.

.
Next is a screen shot of the coinfacts page and at the bottom are (3) dealer asking prices. There are more on collectors corner that are in a similar range but up to and over $100.
Looks like the auction are 77, 101 and 80.
.

.
It is interesting that the price is in green and was just moved up from $96 but not anything extreme.

I think the greysheet CPG (collector price guide) is $107 and with cac $115 but I might be out of date on these.
.
Overall the $100 or so seems to not be that far off for average dealer asking prices. What they sell for???

I know of several examples which have sold at auction more recently, for less than $80.

Oh I have no doubt. I only pointed to the auction on coinfacts because they were on the screen shot.

The pcgs price guide definition that I posted a screen shot of was 'average dealer asking price'. It then states what the sources could be and auction is one but others refer to dealer prices. I noted the ones (3) on the coinfacts page and that there were more on collectors corner that were in that range but also up to and over 100.

I don't know exactly were pcgs sources their dealer prices but I might think collectors corner that is a division of collectors universe might be one of them and why I mentioned it. Below is only a partial page of page 3. Page 1 and 2 is taken up by Bonanza which is at the top of this screen shot. Could not get the price in the shot but it is 99.95 but they have them in the 90's range mostly.

So looking at these numbers I think this might be where the pcgs price guide number is coming from on this one price for their average dealer asking price. If at a show someone might say would you take $80 and a little grumble with an okay.

If the greysheet CPG I noted is not outdated then it is also in this upper range.

I am not defending the price as good to buy off eBay or other sources but simply trying to point out where the pcgs price guide might be coming from on this one price. I don't know the formulas though.

Thank you for all of that. I must admit, I’d been placing considerably more weight on actual prices realized, rather than dealer asking prices.

coastaljerseyguy

Wasn't the best photo for selling coin. I may be wrong, but I'm assuming the winner was connected to the sale and exceeded the $50 prior bid to not let the coin go for that cheap. Kind of like a shill bid to make sure it went for close to market. I would think for $50 you could wholesale this all day long.

Connecticoin

@jmlanzaf said:

@MFeld said:

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

Agree. Statistically, the impact of toners on price would be minimal.

Does PCGS publish their methodology for determining price?

My rough rule of thumb is fair value is 80% of PCGS price guide. Thus, PCGS Price Guide methodology might be (fair value) x 1.25

logger7

Common MS63 Morgans are probably worth $80 or so on ebay if the coin has some eye appeal; high end ones are worth more.

ajaan

@coastaljerseyguy said:
Wasn't the best photo for selling coin. I may be wrong, but I'm assuming the winner was connected to the sale and exceeded the $50 prior bid to not let the coin go for that cheap. Kind of like a shill bid to make sure it went for close to market. I would think for $50 you could wholesale this all day long

I won the coin and I'm in no way connected to the sale.

MFeld

@Connecticoin said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@MFeld said:

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

Agree. Statistically, the impact of toners on price would be minimal.

Does PCGS publish their methodology for determining price?

My rough rule of thumb is fair value is 80% of PCGS price guide. Thus, PCGS Price Guide methodology might be (fair value) x 1.25

Based on all of the different types and grades of coins I have to value as part of my job, I couldn’t possibly use a rule of thumb from any price guide that would suffice in a high percentage of cases. I need to check auction prices realized, posted bid and ask prices, private sale prices and multiple price guides.

coastaljerseyguy

Sorry, good for you. Thought the seller might have had a minimum bid amount to let coin go. Your gain they're loss.

nencoin

It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

ajaan

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

Sorry Chris.😁

nencoin

@ajaan said:

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

Sorry Chris.😁

Well, I'm glad it was you who got the bargain!

P0CKETCHANGE

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

You might try ending auctions Sunday evening. Folks are usually more active then as there are lots of other auctions closing out then (GC, DLRC, Legend, David Kahn on eBay, etc.). More competition, maybe, but more eyeballs most likely.

PeakRarities

@P0CKETCHANGE said:

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

You might try ending auctions Sunday evening. Folks are usually more active then as there are lots of other auctions closing out then (GC, DLRC, Legend, David Kahn on eBay, etc.). More competition, maybe, but more eyeballs most likely.

Agreed, in my experience a 10 day auction ending on a Sunday night has produced best results.

nencoin

@DeplorableDan said:

@P0CKETCHANGE said:

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

You might try ending auctions Sunday evening. Folks are usually more active then as there are lots of other auctions closing out then (GC, DLRC, Legend, David Kahn on eBay, etc.). More competition, maybe, but more eyeballs most likely.

Agreed, in my experience a 10 day auction ending on a Sunday night has produced best results.

All great suggestions (thanks!) and a strategy we have taken in the past. However, right now we're trying to get back to Top Rated Seller status, and so we're putting relatively inexpensive coins up in shorter durations until we hit the minimum number of transactions threshold. For now, we're going to have to put something up other than common date Morgans.

braddick

@DeplorableDan said:

@P0CKETCHANGE said:

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

You might try ending auctions Sunday evening. Folks are usually more active then as there are lots of other auctions closing out then (GC, DLRC, Legend, David Kahn on eBay, etc.). More competition, maybe, but more eyeballs most likely.

Agreed, in my experience a 10 day auction ending on a Sunday night has produced best results.

For sure that is sage advice but man- I gotta tell ya, I despise ten-day auctions.

PeakRarities

@braddick said:

@DeplorableDan said:

@P0CKETCHANGE said:

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

You might try ending auctions Sunday evening. Folks are usually more active then as there are lots of other auctions closing out then (GC, DLRC, Legend, David Kahn on eBay, etc.). More competition, maybe, but more eyeballs most likely.

Agreed, in my experience a 10 day auction ending on a Sunday night has produced best results.

For sure that is sage advice but man- I gotta tell ya, I despise ten-day auctions.

I understand, the way I see it Its all relative. I cant stand when I see a coin on HA that I want to bid on, and I take a closer look at the auction date.... only 75 more days to go

spyglassdesign

The thing I've learned about the price guide is that it seems to be reflecting full retail pricing, which auctions often don't reflect. As others have stated there are a myriad of reasons an auction likely won't hit that or above unless it has great eye appeal or some attractive toning someone just happens to really want, etc.

Price guide is just that... A guide. It's useful to look through the outliers to find out why it's so high or low... Often times I will find things like CAC, outlandish eye appeal and pictures, other other factors including a top tier auction house that has a lot of eueballs. So unless your images and coin can compete with the outliers, toss that data.

If there's a lot of auction data and you plan to auction it, you can expect to pay some percentage of the average.

In short it all depends! And, to the op, congrats on the great price!

ajaan

@nencoin said:

@DeplorableDan said:

@P0CKETCHANGE said:

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

You might try ending auctions Sunday evening. Folks are usually more active then as there are lots of other auctions closing out then (GC, DLRC, Legend, David Kahn on eBay, etc.). More competition, maybe, but more eyeballs most likely.

Agreed, in my experience a 10 day auction ending on a Sunday night has produced best results.

All great suggestions (thanks!) and a strategy we have taken in the past. However, right now we're trying to get back to Top Rated Seller status, and so we're putting relatively inexpensive coins up in shorter durations until we hit the minimum number of transactions threshold. For now, we're going to have to put something up other than common date Morgans.

C'mon nencoin, give common date Morgans one more shot.😉

Walkerlover

@MFeld said:

@Connecticoin said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@MFeld said:

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

Agree. Statistically, the impact of toners on price would be minimal.

Does PCGS publish their methodology for determining price?

My rough rule of thumb is fair value is 80% of PCGS price guide. Thus, PCGS Price Guide methodology might be (fair value) x 1.25

Based on all of the different types and grades of coins I have to value as part of my job, I couldn’t possibly use a rule of thumb from any price guide that would suffice in a high percentage of cases. I need to check auction prices realized, posted bid and ask prices, private sale prices and multiple price guides.

I think some of the pricing of coins is subjective and unpredictable. This 1943 steel cent is attractive, but put on a CAC sticker and put in a GC auction and a $50 coin brings $280!!
And there are many other examples of common coins bringing uncommon prices on GC if they are attractive and you add a CAC sticker. I would even guess you could buy attractive common date coins on EBay in some series and get a CAC sticker and make money in GC auctions. But you need to study which common coins and dates do well at auctions.

skier07

@nencoin said:
It sold for too cheap. Sight-unseen bid is $60. We tried it as an experiment, which clearly failed. D'oh!

Your pictures are lacking. They don’t enlarge and they’re even smaller with the slab shots only.

MFeld

@Walkerlover said:

@MFeld said:

@Connecticoin said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@MFeld said:

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

Agree. Statistically, the impact of toners on price would be minimal.

Does PCGS publish their methodology for determining price?

My rough rule of thumb is fair value is 80% of PCGS price guide. Thus, PCGS Price Guide methodology might be (fair value) x 1.25

Based on all of the different types and grades of coins I have to value as part of my job, I couldn’t possibly use a rule of thumb from any price guide that would suffice in a high percentage of cases. I need to check auction prices realized, posted bid and ask prices, private sale prices and multiple price guides.

I think some of the pricing of coins is subjective and unpredictable. This 1943 steel cent is attractive, but put on a CAC sticker and put in a GC auction and a $50 coin brings $280!!
And there are many other examples of common coins bringing uncommon prices on GC if they are attractive and you add a CAC sticker. I would even guess you could buy attractive common date coins on EBay in some series and get a CAC sticker and make money in GC auctions. But you need to study which common coins and dates do well at auctions.

If someone could do that, they could probably make money by selling the coins in Heritage auctions, as well!

jmlanzaf

@MFeld said:

@Walkerlover said:

@MFeld said:

@Connecticoin said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@MFeld said:

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

Agree. Statistically, the impact of toners on price would be minimal.

Does PCGS publish their methodology for determining price?

My rough rule of thumb is fair value is 80% of PCGS price guide. Thus, PCGS Price Guide methodology might be (fair value) x 1.25

Based on all of the different types and grades of coins I have to value as part of my job, I couldn’t possibly use a rule of thumb from any price guide that would suffice in a high percentage of cases. I need to check auction prices realized, posted bid and ask prices, private sale prices and multiple price guides.

I think some of the pricing of coins is subjective and unpredictable. This 1943 steel cent is attractive, but put on a CAC sticker and put in a GC auction and a $50 coin brings $280!!
And there are many other examples of common coins bringing uncommon prices on GC if they are attractive and you add a CAC sticker. I would even guess you could buy attractive common date coins on EBay in some series and get a CAC sticker and make money in GC auctions. But you need to study which common coins and dates do well at auctions.

>

If someone could do that, they could probably make money by selling the coins in Heritage auctions, as well!

Fan boy!

Walkerlover

@MFeld said:

@Walkerlover said:

@MFeld said:

@Connecticoin said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@MFeld said:

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

Agree. Statistically, the impact of toners on price would be minimal.

Does PCGS publish their methodology for determining price?

My rough rule of thumb is fair value is 80% of PCGS price guide. Thus, PCGS Price Guide methodology might be (fair value) x 1.25

Based on all of the different types and grades of coins I have to value as part of my job, I couldn’t possibly use a rule of thumb from any price guide that would suffice in a high percentage of cases. I need to check auction prices realized, posted bid and ask prices, private sale prices and multiple price guides.

I think some of the pricing of coins is subjective and unpredictable. This 1943 steel cent is attractive, but put on a CAC sticker and put in a GC auction and a $50 coin brings $280!!
And there are many other examples of common coins bringing uncommon prices on GC if they are attractive and you add a CAC sticker. I would even guess you could buy attractive common date coins on EBay in some series and get a CAC sticker and make money in GC auctions. But you need to study which common coins and dates do well at auctions.

If someone could do that, they could probably make money by selling the coins in Heritage auctions, as well!

I am sure people are doing it at all auction venues. What I cannot figure out is why someone would pay $250 for a coin that you can easily find on the Bay for $40-50 albeit without a sticker. Here’s one that sold for $205 with no sticker. Makes no sense that someone is paying this money for a coin easily available for so much less.

jmlanzaf

@Walkerlover said:

@MFeld said:

@Walkerlover said:

@MFeld said:

@Connecticoin said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@MFeld said:

@Ownerofawheatiehorde said:
Maybe it’s because a toned 1887 sells for more than a BW and PCGS mixes the two? Just an idea.

I think that, like in many others instances, the price guide is simply unrealistically high.

Agree. Statistically, the impact of toners on price would be minimal.

Does PCGS publish their methodology for determining price?

My rough rule of thumb is fair value is 80% of PCGS price guide. Thus, PCGS Price Guide methodology might be (fair value) x 1.25

Based on all of the different types and grades of coins I have to value as part of my job, I couldn’t possibly use a rule of thumb from any price guide that would suffice in a high percentage of cases. I need to check auction prices realized, posted bid and ask prices, private sale prices and multiple price guides.

I think some of the pricing of coins is subjective and unpredictable. This 1943 steel cent is attractive, but put on a CAC sticker and put in a GC auction and a $50 coin brings $280!!
And there are many other examples of common coins bringing uncommon prices on GC if they are attractive and you add a CAC sticker. I would even guess you could buy attractive common date coins on EBay in some series and get a CAC sticker and make money in GC auctions. But you need to study which common coins and dates do well at auctions.

If someone could do that, they could probably make money by selling the coins in Heritage auctions, as well!

I am sure people are doing it at all auction venues. What I cannot figure out is why someone would pay $250 for a coin that you can easily find on the Bay for $40-50 albeit without a sticker. Here’s one that sold for $205 with no sticker. Makes no sense that someone is paying this money for a coin easily available for so much

To be fair, there is a risk in any aspirational purchase. If your $50 coin doesn't sticker, you've spent time and money and need to buy another and try again. If you buy it stickered, there is no risk of it not stickering.

The same thing is true with Mint 70s. You can buy a raw coin and have a 30 to70% chance of getting a 70, depending on the issue. But if you spend the extra money to get one in a 70 holder, there is no uncertainty.

ProofCollection

There are many factors in prices realized:
-Quality of Pictures
-Time of auction closing
-Length of auction
-Rarity of item
-Special characteristics (if any)
-Perceived quality of the coin
-Shipping terms
-Luck

My hat is off to those who keep up the price guides. It is a thankless and never ending task and as soon as you are done updating it you start all over again. Maintaining prices for every grade and every variation of every coin just seems daunting. The guides are a starting point only though, as they cannot be relied upon for any coin. Ebay and other auction results provide the best data, IMO.

Did you know if you click on the price on a cert verification screen you get the historical price graph? This will give you an idea when the last update occurred. Unfortunately it does not tell you if the re-evaluated the price and left it where it was.

joeykoins

It's funny you mentioned the 1887.
Just got this yesterday!




VAM 3A