What Are Young Contrarians Buying Now Days?
cladking
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I haven't thought about this too much but Boxerdad's thread...
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1093083/unopened-50-dollar-bag-of-1962-pennies#latest
...has me thinking about it.
Would it make sense to set aside things like '60 to '64 cents and nickels if you had time, patience, and proper storage?
Obviously there are lots and lots of great contrarian buys all through numismatics. In many ways it's a better time to be a young contrarian even than it was in 1965 because so much more is known today about the nature and availability of so many more coins, tokens, and medals.
Tempus fugit.
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I have set a quantity (small) of coins aside in years gone by.... Still not searched. I should do that - not that I expect an undiscovered treasure. We shall see.... Cheers, RickO
I think everything catches up in time, but time is our greatest commodity. I cant imagine any of us or even our grandchildren getting reach on shiny 1962 Lincoln cents. Even with attrition over the years, there are millions of them.
The trick is always to pounce on something underappreciated and hope like hell it gains in popularity. That is, if you are interested in profit. If not, find what interests you and collect.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
It would all be pure speculation. I think it's better to just buy what you like and enjoy it.
[Unless you just enjoy speculation. In that case, but a bigger house and have at it. ]
Why do you select the years 1960-64? I get that the highest gems will pay premiums, but I would think the survival rates will be insane for these coins 100 years from now. Take the 1964-D cent, there were ~3.7B minted. Curious why you selected those years specifically.
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
Call me crazy,,,,But, I think that some of the American Silver Eagles s in MS/PF 70 that have very low mintage numbers are a good buying opportunity. YES, they were made to be collected BUT there is no denying their absolute and conditional rarity. The demand is FAR greater than the supply and will continue to outpace it. JMHO.
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My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I doubt I'd be buying these if I were young because there were literally millions set aside. I'd guess about 10,000,000 or so were intentionally pulled out and not released before all the rest were in circulation in about 1967. In the last half century they have fared very poorly. Most of the time the owners of a bag or rolls have died almost all the coins have gone into circulation. During the '70's and '80's it was very common to find BU and slider '60 to '64 coinage in circulation. I haven't seen it much in the last 20 years because pennies circulate so poorly and there are fewer of them.
No I seriously doubt that the one million survivors are going to appreciate any time soon but there will be more demand on memorials when the cent is discontinued, even though it might not happen until a wheelbarrow full of pennies is worth more than a wheelbarrow full of hundred dollar bills.
But I can certainly envision a time that collectors suddenly realize that nice choice and gemmy '62-D cents are no longer common.
Many moderns are quite scarce and have no demand so why couldn't something like nice gemmy '61 nickels be far scarcer than is apparent? There's little more demand for '60 to '64 coinage than for later issues.
I recently went through a bunch of '62-D cent rolls I had cherry picked. I saved only a few minor varieties and a handful of Gems. Even though the Gems were cherry picked from dozens or hundreds of rolls there were none worth the cost of grading. If this is the standard then there won't be many of these coins left as time goes by.
Yes! Exactly.
Nobody likes '60 to '64 US coins. It's hard to imagine this will persist indefinitely.
Right now the mint sets are getting huge premiums but this isn't because the coins have increased in value but because the mint sets have been destroyed in huge numbers that there are few left. Incidentally most of the cents in these sets are tarnished.
I have some feel for what younger collectors are seeking but much less of an idea what young contrarians are buying. Some people collect what they like and some like what's not popular. There are many different ways to pursue coin collecting and to derive enjoyment from it.
Speculators tend to get slaughtered in all hobbies.
"A common coin will always be a common coin." --Dave Bowers.
To me, this is no more than the "roll and bag" fad that was going on back then.
Pete
Vaultbox
Yes but if demand is high, price can still be high despite supply.
See: 09-S VDB, 3-leg buff, 16-D merc. All very easy to find in dealer inventory online or at a show but all quite expensive.
Financially, the probability is much better that someone would be better off buying an equivalent value of gold or silver, store it for the same timeframe, and then use the time required to monetize it to earn a noticeably better wage income. There isn't going to be any financial scale to this type of example.
NGC and PCGS have graded somewhat under 3000 to over 7000 for each 1960-1964 cent, with over 80% MS-65 or better and the vast majority of these RD. This isn't a low supply for a coin with such a low collector preference.
In your examples, the collector preference (the source of demand) is and was already high. I'm not aware of any US coin as a generic date during the modern collecting era (roughly 1933 and later) which started off with a low collector preference and later had one anywhere near one of these key dates. It's happened with some due to subsequently created specializations or TPG, but the supply is still narrowly defined as "scarce" or "rare".
Young contrarians should not be looking at any US series.
There are always underappreciated coins everywhere. Even in such highly touted areas as morgan dollars there are no doubt many coins and grades that could outperform the market by a wide margin. If dollar collecting caught on among the general public there are dates that are uncommon enough that even F's could be in short supply. If morgans can outperform than almost anything might. I've used this as an example before but nice looking ch BU '84 cents with pleasing (flat) surfaces are quite scarce and have no premium. These coins are poorly made by poor dies, on bubbly damaged planchets. Nice examples are hard to find even in circulated grades.
I do agree that there is vast opportunity in world coins. Many of these have never even been studied much less collected.
You should trade stocks if you are looking to find “contrarian” buys. You should enjoy the series you collect first and foremost. I could be a “contrarian” and buy certified Poor-1 coins and end up being aggravated as people will come to realize that they are essentially blank disks and I’m the last guy standing. What would you rather own, a choice XF to Uncirculated or a poor-1 of the same coin? They may have the same “valuation”, but one of them clearly has a better look and will be if more interest to another collector down the road. Also don’t get up in the modern high end grade game. Many, many millions were struck and millions of them are still out there but have never been graded. There are a couple of 20th century mini-sets within a series that I find very appealing. Relatively low mintages and tough to find in choice XF and better grades. Again, you need to enjoy the series first.
I would say that there are plenty that like 1960 - 1964 half dollars. A fair amount of quarters too. But I'd agree on the most part about dimes, nickels, and cents of that time frame.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Not young - So I will wait for the old contrarian thread and then act like an old contrarian at that time.
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I’m collecting contemporary coins in each denomination. 1965 to present.
Seems to be mostly bullion … silver dragons?
Some of the best payoffs in my life, when it comes to art and coins...collecting what I like.
Occasionally if I'm thinking about something as an actual long-term investment it ends up being things I like that I also can envision others liking.
It's often the art and oddness that atracts me.
I'm in my early 50's...is that young? I've only got like 60 or 70 years left!
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