Areas of opportunity or really little demand?
Zoins
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Laura wrote the following about Legend's inventory last month:
Laura Sperber said:
We can just about sell any choice/GEM Gold coin we get. We scratch our heads looking at some seriously rare and HIGH END coins that languish in our inventory. Those coins are always NON GOLD Type. Why the lack of interest?We can not understand for the life of us why a MS66 Seated Dime generally available around $1,500.00 or less, usually with low pops does not get purchased right away. Ditto, Nickel coinage no matter how rare has taken a beating on the chin for years. Ditto with Commemoratives (unless wildly toned) and other non gold series.
Are these areas of opportunity?
Any thoughts on why there seems to be less demand here? Is there less demand for these coins across the board? Or perhaps they don't find their way to Legend?
Here's a Legend nickel from the Mavrc collection:
Comments
Have Legend buyers been conditioned to prefer certain series? Or put in another way, are buyers expecting a certain type of coin to be available from Legend. If Legend hasn't marketed seated dimes or nickel coinage, the people that collect those are more likely to go to other dealers/auction houses.
Commemoratives seem to be a different story. There have been plenty of threads about them falling out of favor when the market on them decreased from the peak. Sure plenty of people still collect them, but I imagine less want to pay up for them knowing the past pricing history.
Gold coins seem to be ruling the market at this time.... That is a casual observation on my part, I do not have statistics. That observation seems to be supported by the commentary in the OP. Cheers, RickO
I mostly agree with her...But not ALL nickels are undervalued. Buffalo nickels are the exception....They are VERY popular and can be quite PRICEY!!
Commems have been dead for DECADES. I never liked them, anyway, as the are not actual coins that circulated in commerce. The wildly toned ones can go for MOON money, but I certainly wouldn't invest in one.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Here's a Legend nickel. And of course, we all know about the gold Buffalo nickel in Jim's collection.
Agree non-wildly toned commems have languished since the dealer promotions stopped. Perhaps wanting them to reach those levels of prices again is unrealistic.
But hey, in regard to Classic Silver Commems, why not avail ourselves of the opportunity to buy low, not for investment purposes, but for the reason most of us collect coins? For the fun, beauty, and fascinating stories behind many of these pieces!
Back in early 2019 I was looking for a new numismatic interest, so I started the 50 coin Classic Silver Commem Type Set. What a terrific variety of designs and stories. And guess what? The values have not dropped. While it hasn’t increased a lot, it’s increased some, and I’ve derived a LOT of pleasure from it. More than half of the coins in my #13 ranked set are valued at $1,000 and less!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Just looking at the PCGS price guild there seems to be a lot of green arrows for the Classic Silver Commems maybe catching on again. Like Steve said, very beautiful designs and wonderful histories.
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
Commemoratives are interesting, with many great designs. While not a commemorative collector, I did put together a set of the states I have lived in.. That was fun... If I recall, one state did not have a commemorative, so I added a promotional coin from that state (I think it was Florida, been a long time since I did that). Nine states, nine coins. Cheers, RickO
I think gold has slowed a little recently. However I do not think there is any underserved part of the classic US coin market at this point. Some are more popular than others but realistically some will always be more popular for one reason or another.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
Try finding a nice MS65 Rays Shield Nickel for less than an arm and a leg!
I like many nickel and dime designs but the coins themselves are so small that I prefer to look at photos of them. No idea if this is a factor for others, but it definitely is for me as I begin to age with my eyesight deteriorating. And my close vision is better than most.
I think the demand is tied to desirability. Gold always sells, but certain non-gold types get ignored because they can't be completed by any ordinary collectors, for example the half dime series because of the 1870-S or liberty nickels because of the 1913 coins. Why would someone go for a series when the first major coin they might learn about is one they will likely never own?
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Totally agree.
Over the last 40 years the value of classic commemoratives has fallen, substantially in many cases.
Why not collect something that has a proven track record and is interesting as well, such as “any” US Mint product starting with the numerals “179”.
I don't think commemoratives are a bad play at this point in time, I've seen a lot of young collectors take interest in them recently, likely due to the affordable prices. That being said, I do enjoy collecting coins that start with "179" so I can't really argue with that logic 😅
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There are always cycles, so when things are down or unpopular it's typically a good time to buy. When things are hot, typically a good time to sell. Works for Warren Buffet anyway.
I for one am glad to see coins languish in some dealer's inventory while I save up to buy them!
Not in my opinion. These coins don't have demand from financially motivated buying which better date and higher graded gold + crown sized coins do.
To the vast majority of collectors, the same coin one or a few grades lower is "good enough" and the same money can buy (far) more interesting coins. A label with a higher number on a holder doesn't make it sufficiently interesting to more than a (very) low fraction of the collector base.
These coins aren't affordable to more than a low minority of the collector base and while there may be "few" for a particular coin, add them all up and there are many. Is every coin like these supposed to sell for (a lot) more? That's my inference from the quote.
I'm not aware of a such a cycle in coin collecting where individual coins or a series go in and out of favor to become more or less preferred. A low number of "one and done" but that's all.
Part of it is that people collect or purchase coins for different reasons now.
An example would be that there are a lot more stackers and flippers than in the past.
I don't know, it's my view.
Pete
Would think demand can vary on those unless somebody looking for type or set. Not many have the pocket buy at that level either. Can see friend like Phil buying slabbed gold coins AU 55 or higher. He’s savvy of slabs PCGS or NGC - generally looking for slabbed stuff under $600 or close to melt like generic 63-64 Saints. He’s a buyer at bid plus 5-10 pct buys a lot from wholesaler who sets up at local shows plus he gets stuff off GC. He stacks nice 1883-O PCGS 65 $ and 1923 PCGS 65 Dollars (fan of the Yellowstone Ranch show). Then some CC $ like 84cc in 64. Other CC coins too under $600. He is interested in single digit or top pop slabbed coins from France, Italy, Spain, and Mexico. Also likes bullion issues like Mexico slabbed PVGS 69 & 70 Libertads. Believe he has box of 20 of those.
He is a stacker / flipper sometime sets up shows. In that venue likes having stuff most can afford.
Demand is always the driver in the vehicle known as "Supply and Demand." I have found that unless people have an interest in collecting this or that, it really matters very little how rare something is.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Lack of funds - tough times plus summer slow season.
Most buyers coming into bourse room doing good have $300. Big ticket stuff can force low margins.
Any big ticket stuff over $500 I buy these days are usually 1oz $50 slabbed 69-70 AGE or AGB.
There is no doubt there are well off collectors buy expensive stuff but in reality people really fussy about what they buy. Usually they focused on one type or series so good luck. Many (bored with coins) into graded currency like US large size or NBN.
Nothing mentioned by @Zoins or Legend is an area of value. The coins are worth what the numismatic market states they are worth and the numismatic market has no fundamental rule in place to cycle each series as hot or undervalued. It is all simply supply and demand.
Laura mentions nickel coinage and the OP has an image of a Liberty nickel. This series is essentially dead to the larger collector base and has been for a long time. They are relatively small coins made of non-precious (not gold or silver) metal that are not typically found attractively toned, are often weakly struck and have a design that is aesthetically challenged, to say the least, in the eyes of most collectors. Why would most collectors want to drop the funds required to build a monotonous, low eye appeal set? Why should this series be anything other than a type set filler?
Laura also mentions Seated Liberty dimes, but, again, why should this be essentially anything other than a type set coin? They are awfully small, share a similar obverse to the contemporary quarter, half dollar and dollar coins, and are interminably long for most folks. Also, whereas there are some nice coins at "relatively" affordable prices, if you want to collect them as a series you better have enough money to essentially buy a second home and enough years left collecting to find them all. These are the definition of a type coin.
Dead is dead and no amount of hype or "this coin is so pretty" or apples-to-oranges comparison will make a series more attractive to the 99.999% of coin collectors who don't buy a single coin above $250.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
"179-" "170-"... close enough...
1708 Crown
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Very well said; but, on the other hand there are plenty available and strong demand for them as evidenced by the specialist dealers who stock them.
Thank goodness there are no Barber Dollars and the supply of high grade Barber dimes and quarters is thin as even David Lawrence no longer has a good supply of them.
I was hoping the question of value would be conveyed in the question in whether these are areas have opportunity 😃
“Dead is dead” seems to be an answer indicating these are not areas of opportunity. Given the reasoning, hopefully people don’t get trapped here.
A neat coin of a rather obscure queen who had a major effect on British history.
Queen Anne was plagued by poor health throughout her life, and from her thirties she grew increasingly ill and obese. Despite 17 pregnancies, she died without surviving issue and was the last monarch of the House of Stuart. Under the Act of Settlement 1701, which excluded all Catholic heirs to the throne, she was succeeded by her second cousin, the only Protestant heir, George I, the German from the House of Hanover .
I suspect that much of the increased interest in gold is coming from investors and the dealers who supply them. (A gold coin sounds like a better hedge against inflation than a proof nickel.) And I haven’t seen much collector interest in common gem type coins for a long, long time.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I wonder if investors are also driving the price premiums for CAC gold.
And I haven’t seen much collector interest in common gem type coins for a long, long time.
I suspect you haven't tried to put together a high quality type set in a while Not so easy
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
I like coins with mintages under 5,000 that don’t start in grades of MS69.
I think an issue with classic commemoratives is that while they don't start in MS69, they tend to start just below that, still in MS.
I think you missed the point of "179"
He means coins from the 1790s
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
This is desirable but I'm guessing:
Those are definitely some nice coins to collect!
Here's your TrueView!
The problem with classic commemoratives becoming more "popular" is that there isn't enough demand from set collectors for most of the coins because the series is artificial hole filling for a random assortment of actually unrelated coins. There is no reason for most collectors to buy most of the coins other than because reference books and registry sets have arbitrarily determined that it's a series. It's evident most of the coins have a below average collector preference with the few with a noticeably higher one already being in strong demand.
In the US market, it's not an accident that any coin sells for its current price. There is some uncertainly on the actual relative scarcity but no coin type is "overlooked". It's only proponents who think what they like or own should be worth more who believe otherwise.
I didn't say it was easy. Although the truth is that it can be easy if you're not too fussy, and very difficult if you are. But we digress.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Ahh fussy, did someone call me?
Yes, I fit that profile. I have certain parameters that I like to follow in my type sets.
I start off with a particular grade, properly graded for the grade, eye appeal, priced right, CAC sticker where applicable. So yes, I'm a fussy collector, also frus-trated trying to find coins with all my criteria. Not getting any easier either, so few coins out their that fit all of my parameters. So, the search goes on.
Cheers
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
Aren't all "areas of opportunity" due to currently low demand? Back in the 1940s when no one wanted proof gold, you could buy it for little more than bullion value which is what people like Pittman did. The problem is predicting what areas of currently lie demand will in the future see an uptick. It's all just random speculation. And those that guess right will pat themselves on the back and say they were prescient. In most cases, it's just dumb luck.
I interpret "opportunity" to mean areas which will see an uptick in the future, though some make a good case for enjoying coins without needing an uptick.
Eye appealing commem material will always have a market. Especially the more popular designs and toners. The uglier designs, lower UNC coins and coins with a huge population will probably never take off, as the higher echelon of collectors will always seek better examples. You'll probably be limited to buyers who can either only afford that kind of example or stumble upon the coin, and that will be tougher.
Collector of Capped Bust Halves, SLQ's, Commems, and random cool stuff! @davidv_numismatics on Instagram
I think that if you love these designs, the collector can enjoy the lower cost basis. To categorize it as an "opportunity" we would have to speculate about the demand (because we know the supply), and demand would have to increase.
But... here is where it gets tricky... As the presumed demand increases the vale of the Liberty Head Nickel, it begins to drive into competitive territory with the Buffalo Nickel or Shield Nickel (and probably another "favored" series entirely). Would that Liberty Head collector continue to buy? Sure, if they love the design! But, the opportunistic buyer would only buy while the coin is at discount from the higher-priced "favored" design. Once price gaps narrow, opportunistic buyers would likely revert back to whatever they love. So, unless we are thinking the Liberty Head design will eclipse in popularity over the Shied and Buffalo, the nickel market must move together.
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
Classic commem collectors get no respect, no respect at all. I mean, when I went to a coin show and asked a dealer where the classic commems were he pointed and said, "Go through that door." I did...it was to the parking lot! I tell ya, it's not easy being a classic commem collector.
USAF (Ret) 1974 - 1994 - The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries. Remembering RickO, a brother in arms.
I would suggest that if you want to build interest in a coin niche, perhaps authoring some guest articles or creating content and putting it out there will help generate that interest.
I think that's generally what happens with all markets. interest comes and goes over time. At some point interest and prices will drop so much that it will bring a flood of interest into the segment once someone realizes it and word starts to spread.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Ok Rodney
As far as areas of opportunity in US vintage coins it appears the well about dry IMO.
Your comments are similar to my first post in this thread, and this is what most who think coins they like or own are "underappreciated" miss. Only a very low percentage to almost no one prefers the same coins someone else does.
If one or more coins in a series or the entire series appreciates substantially versus others, most collectors will reduce their buying by shifting to something else, even if it's their primary interest. This happens because the coin or series isn't competitive enough versus other comparably priced alternatives.
Well, it SHOULD sound like something you would say. This is something I learned from you ATS. We had a debate ATS over under appreciated series (Jefferson Nickels), and you made a similar point. I have never forgotten that, and it always stuck out as a lesson in my own bias. The more I thought about this point, the more true it became in my mind (as this is certainly true for me). At the time, it was a tough concept for me to grasp. Thank you @WCC for making me think.
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
Put them on eBay, starting at a dollar.