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Silver return calculator

cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,489 ✭✭✭✭✭

https://dqydj.com/silver-return-calculator/
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Here's a neat little calculator to help you see returns of sulver on both nominal and inflation adjusted basis.

It's a fun exercise to change the date to look at 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 and 50 year inflation adjusted returns.

How are your inflation adjusted returns?

Excuses are tools of the ignorant

Knowledge is the enemy of fear

Comments

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk - thanks, that’s a useful site. It seems like a fair generalization would be that, if you avoid the two spikes, over most periods silver has yielded a real gain before tax in the low single digits. If you adjust for tax, you’re probably at about break even in real terms. So, while accumulating silver is a poor investment strategy, it is a good wealth preservation strategy. That’s what we’d pretty much expect-the data supports our intuition.

    Higashiyama
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,489 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I would agree, with many of the dates I plugged in resulting in returns similar to that of a 10 yr treasury.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    PS: to critique my comments above, I’ve started at each period in the past, and looked forward to 2023. If you look at different end points, there are in fact many times when retirement drawdowns would be a problem; for example, if you retired in the early 1990s and wanted to use your silver pile to fund retirement, you’d be in bad shape. So, my statement that silver is a good wealth preservation strategy is dubious!

    Higashiyama
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,489 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2023 10:43AM

    Yes, sequence of returns risk should always be considered.

    One would have to he very lucky to have bought at a time when a 4-5% withdrawal rate did not cause problems.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,295 ✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2023 11:55AM

    Net loser here. But I collect for the simple appreciation of the art and design
    of the coins I own. I've done very much better with the gold coins I own though and
    stocks, as well!

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The volatility of silver pricing is what creates the notion that silver can make you some money, or conversely that silver is a bad deal. We have both types here.

    Net return isn't the only consideration when owning silver however, and especially gold, and maybe in a pinch platinum or palladium. The other considerations include usage in hard times when fiat is impaired, or maintaining purchasing power when the dollar's value decreases because of rapid demand-pull inflation. That's always a lurking possibility.

    They (the banks?) want to end up with CBDC, but I'd rather end up using cash. Who gets to decide?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Silver makes pretty coins, based on the above and real world observations, not a good store of value. Can be profitable when done in short holds, working the dips/peaks... but overall return is not high. Gold is money. Cheers, RickO

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The gutter return calculator doesn't bode well IMO. Negative returns for all. RGD!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • inkdiverinkdiver Posts: 53 ✭✭

    In theory silver holds it's purchasing power (being more volatile than gold for sure). Problem is, the crazy premiums on silver.

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @percyb said:
    Net loser here. But I collect for the simple appreciation of the art and design
    of the coins I own. I've done very much better with the gold coins I own though and
    stocks, as well!

    In inflation adjusted dollars I'm break even at best. It's been a lot fun though and I've enjoyed selling almost as much as buying. All physical PMs by the way.

  • johnnybjohnnyb Posts: 30 ✭✭✭

    I was probably lucky but I remember buying junk silver at 3.5-4x face circa 2002, and buying at 10-11x face maybe 5-6 years ago. I remember a dealer commenting that silver at 3x is a steal but good luck finding it. Yeah, maybe I could have done better in the stock market, but I also could have done worse. But just today I was going through some junk silver and thought how amazing that $3.50 face in junk silver quarters is probably worth $70 today. What will it be worth in another 20 years?

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @johnnyb said:

    But just today I was going through some junk silver and thought how amazing that $3.50 face in junk silver quarters is probably worth $70 today. What will it be worth in another 20 years?

    My guess $40 - $70....non-inflation adjusted. BTW $3.5FV is currently worth about $60 (retail). RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,879 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @johnnyb said:
    But just today I was going through some junk silver and thought how amazing that $3.50 face in junk silver quarters is probably worth $70 today. What will it be worth in another 20 years?

    My guess $40 - $70....non-inflation adjusted. BTW $3.5FV is currently worth about $60 (retail). RGDS!

    Post a link to a legitimate retail offer that is 17.15 times face value.

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,748 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't need a calculator. I need a yardstick.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,010 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 24, 2023 5:45AM

    For the purposes of the calculator "Inflation is based on the CPI-U from the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

    Most of us realize the flaw and danger of using public, government data to form private economic decisions: It, like today's news reporting and the behavior of federal agencies, is often shaped and twisted to promote positive or hide negative opinion on who is running the show. In the fairness of accurate reporting please provide the same calculator that does not depend on a "revised" method of determining CPI.

    In the real world, private corporations are required to have their data confirmed by independent auditors. Even then cases of fraud, deception, or incompetence by the auditors are sometimes revealed. Who is independently (not working for who is running the show) certifying all this government issued data? Do we just take it at the word of those who issue it? The very fact that it is labeled "conspiracy theory" to question it reinforces the fact that the controlling of opinion is a real issue.

    I suspect you will find that many who stack PMs have such concerns. If I personally believed everything I was being told I would see no need to buy the PM insurance. All insurance has a cost but very little offers the opportunity for gain. Consider PMs a whole life policy.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

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