No, not since 1900, only if you bought in 1900. Different story if you bought in 1901, 1902, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909, 191o0, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935.....you get it yet?
Use the calculator in the other thread. No need to be confused anymore. The truth is.out there.
I know exactly how far back the calculator goes. And anyone with a stack then would be in their mid 80s today... or dead. And maybe they broke even after inflation. What a great way to improve family wealth. LOL
You like to use the words "if" and "suppose" quite frequently. Those words only exist in alternate realities. Facts don't care about those words.
.
Yes, the truth is "out there". Apparently beyond your grasp.
You didn't answer the question as to where or how you came up with the idea that buying silver in every year from 1901 to 1935 and beyond would return less than inflation if sold today.
But I'll make it easy for you.
Here is the silver chart from 1915 to 2023 (in 2023 dollars, adjusted for CPI inflation).
The red line represents today's price ($23 and change). If silver followed that horizontal line exactly, it would be keeping pace exactly with CPI inflation over the years 1915 to 2023.
The years in which the blue line is above the red line are the years where silver would not have kept pace with inflation if silver was bought in those years and sold today.
The years in which the blue line is below the red line are the years where silver would have outpaced inflation if silver was bought in those years and sold today.
The blue line is above the red line for 14 of the years. The blue line is below the red line for 95 of the years.
Ask the guy in who bought in 1975 how he feels about silver in 2000. Half of his investing life was wasted. And even now, 50 years later he is supposed to be satisfied with "matching inflaton"?
So lets do a volume weighted average price. See those bars under the price chart, that's volume. And contrary to Jmskis belief that no one was buying at those high prices, that's actually when most people were buying. They are buried when inflation is included. Absolutely buried!!
You are so vehement in your pursuit of the status quo. It's very admirable.
The buyer of the much maligned treasury bonds has done so much better.
He who strives for mediocrity will surely achieve it. Do better people.
buy the spot dips, both price and the premium on real silver will drop giving one a double discount.
Just the opposite when spot rises - a double gain.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@cohodk said:
Ask the guy in who bought in 1975 how he feels about silver in 2000. Half of his investing life was wasted. And even now, 50 years later he is supposed to be satisfied with "matching inflaton"?
So lets do a volume weighted average price. See those bars under the price chart, that's volume. And contrary to Jmskis belief that no one was buying at those high prices, that's actually when most people were buying. They are buried when inflation is included. Absolutely buried!!
You are so vehement in your pursuit of the status quo. It's very admirable.
The buyer of the much maligned treasury bonds has done so much better.
He who strives for mediocrity will surely achieve it. Do better people.
there you go with your misguided "buy and hold." The guy who bought near the dips since 1975 and sold near the highs since then has done quite well.
Sure there is merit in holding PMs for dollar protection, you never know when the quick turn of events will occur. There is also much merit in buying and selling some of those PMs and applying the profits to increasing your stack when the dip reappears. Never hesitate to unload some of that stack when offered a good profitable opportunity. We know silver is volatile and we know that this is what makes it a good buy and sell product. I am all for selling silver eagles for $33 with spot at $23.42. I am confident I can buy them back cheaper. If I'm wrong the gains on what I didn't sell from the stack will provide me consolation.
If buying and selling PMs was not a profitable opportunity, why are there so many successful bullion dealers doing so?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I didn't say that no one was buying at those prices. I said that the high of $50 was only at that level for about 5 minutes and representations that a bunch of people bought at the high and then held for the next 25 years is simply wrong. Completely, irrefutably wrong.
I'm sure that there were some momentum buyers who got killed at the top, but if "most people" were buying at $50, the price would have continued higher. Most people had already stopped buying, and the ones who had bought at $50 certainly didn't hold their positions very long. They cut and ran as fast as they could, which is why the drop was steep and fast.
I remember getting out of gold early at around $625. I sold silver both before AND after the drop, and I made money on both sides of the spike because I had bought early and low. You buy silver when nobody wants it and that makes it kind of hard to do. It's not easy to pull the trigger when the price has been going nowhere for awhile, but that's the best time to buy.
The best time to sell is when you need a little cash. The more random when you sell, the better.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
So what you are saying is that PM folk always buy near the lows and sell near the highs. Is that right?
The omniscience of PM folk is impressive. Since markets are made up of collective decisions of millions (everyone), PMers are hence smarter than everyone.
@jmski52 said:
I didn't say that no one was buying at those prices. I said that the high of $50 was only at that level for about 5 minutes and representations that a bunch of people bought at the high and then held for the next 25 years is simply wrong. Completely, irrefutably wrong.
I'm sure that there were some momentum buyers who got killed at the top, but if "most people" were buying at $50, the price would have continued higher.
No..it's all the buying that took it to 50 in the first place. And that's buying at 35, 36, 37, 38, ect.
Most people had already stopped buying, and the ones who had bought at $50 certainly didn't hold their positions very long.
How do you know that didn't hold it very long? You think folk sell as soon as the price dropped $2, $5, $10?
When everyone has bought as you state (stopped buying), they are now sellers. And since they've already stopped, there are no bids on the way down. This it why it could take 1 million ounces of buying pressure to move it from 35 to 50 and only 100,000 ounces of selling to bring it back to 35, leaving 900,000 ounces at loss or at best break even.
I'm not saying those are the actual numbers, but it's an illustration of how markets work. Heavy volume, which includes buying, always occurs at tops and prices collapse becuae they are no more buyers. Prices don't hit buys because J6P buys 10 ounces.
This happens with PMs, stocks, real estate, tulip bulbs and beanie babies.
@cohodk said:
Ask the guy in who bought in 1975 how he feels about silver in 2000. Half of his investing life was wasted. And even now, 50 years later he is supposed to be satisfied with "matching inflaton"?
So lets do a volume weighted average price. See those bars under the price chart, that's volume. And contrary to Jmskis belief that no one was buying at those high prices, that's actually when most people were buying. They are buried when inflation is included. Absolutely buried!!
You are so vehement in your pursuit of the status quo. It's very admirable.
The buyer of the much maligned treasury bonds has done so much better.
He who strives for mediocrity will surely achieve it. Do better people.
there you go with your misguided "buy and hold." The guy who bought near the dips since 1975 and sold near the highs since then has done quite well.
Sure there is merit in holding PMs for dollar protection, you never know when the quick turn of events will occur. There is also much merit in buying and selling some of those PMs and applying the profits to increasing your stack when the dip reappears. Never hesitate to unload some of that stack when offered a good profitable opportunity. We know silver is volatile and we know that this is what makes it a good buy and sell product. I am all for selling silver eagles for $33 with spot at $23.42. I am confident I can buy them back cheaper. If I'm wrong the gains on what I didn't sell from the stack will provide me consolation.
If buying and selling PMs was not a profitable opportunity, why are there so many successful bullion dealers doing so?
Now change PM for stock market and you have agreement.
Every coin dealer on this forum will tell countless stories of folk bringing in daddy's or grandma's silver junk for sale. Stuff they've held for decades. Please do not say PM folk only buy at lows and sell at highs.
Or perhaps stock folk only buy at lows and sell at highs. And no one loses when the stock drops because they didn't buy at the high.
The 1980 silver price collapsed because the CFTC changed the rules to only allow selling (no buying) and they jacked up the margin requirements as well. On top of that Volker raised interest rates to 20%.
That’s probably when the FED realized that they could start manipulating the markets to their own advantage. If Powell did the same thing now, there would be NO stock market and NO real estate market.
I don’t recall what the volume was at the time of the 1980 silver spike, but the steepness of both the upside and downside of the spike tells me that there weren’t that many participants on either side of the trade,
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The FED determines the future of all markets. They decide which income group receive which crumbs.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If I have to resort to crumbs, I can thank Uncle Sam for surrendering to the FRB. Is that what I'm reading ?
Seems like a conspiracy by the banks. Not to mention one of theirs is now the treasury secretary. Free crumbs for everyone.
Thank Aunt Janet.
While this debate.,... seems to go on and on.... and on and on.... there is one thing that is being overlooked. Hindsight is 100%. It is easy to be an armchair quarterback... after the game is over. And pick data points that will support one's belief, whether pro or con.
It's a different story to predict or forecast what will happen in the future. As nearly all financial offerings say, "Past performance is not indication of future performance " or similar.
@blitzdude said:
The case for $5 gutter metal would have been a more fitting title. THKS!
Or "50 cent forum member." Your welcome
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@blitzdude said:
The case for $5 gutter metal would have been a more fitting title. THKS!
Or "50 cent forum member." Your welcome
Sorry you picked the wrong asset to sink all your eggs into. I know the gutter peddlers can at times be convincing but please no need to take your frustrations out on me. PEACE!
P.S. Please go outside and take a look at this beautiful world. It's the most amazing gift you and I will ever know.....And if you're game come to The Commonwealth for a week. I'll host you. Or just come on up for the big money show, I think it's in Blitzburgh this year (Aug 8-12th). We can try to peddle our overpriced ASE's back to the snake oil salesmen. RGDS!
@cohodk said:
Ask the guy in who bought in 1975 how he feels about silver in 2000. Half of his investing life was wasted. And even now, 50 years later he is supposed to be satisfied with "matching inflaton"?
So lets do a volume weighted average price. See those bars under the price chart, that's volume. And contrary to Jmskis belief that no one was buying at those high prices, that's actually when most people were buying. They are buried when inflation is included. Absolutely buried!!
You are so vehement in your pursuit of the status quo. It's very admirable.
The buyer of the much maligned treasury bonds has done so much better.
He who strives for mediocrity will surely achieve it. Do better people.
.
That is a chart of silver on the commodity exchange, and the volume is the number of contracts transacted. For every buyer, there is a seller.
You fail to realize (of course) that most of the buyers during the 1980 ramp-up to $50 were actually short covering. A significant portion of those buys were forced liquidation of losing short positions (by buying to cancel out that short position). Those forced buyers were not "stackers". They were paper speculators.
Comments
And these big drops are small opportunities except for the blind, ignorant and deniers.
.
Yes, the truth is "out there". Apparently beyond your grasp.
You didn't answer the question as to where or how you came up with the idea that buying silver in every year from 1901 to 1935 and beyond would return less than inflation if sold today.
But I'll make it easy for you.
Here is the silver chart from 1915 to 2023 (in 2023 dollars, adjusted for CPI inflation).
The red line represents today's price ($23 and change). If silver followed that horizontal line exactly, it would be keeping pace exactly with CPI inflation over the years 1915 to 2023.
The years in which the blue line is above the red line are the years where silver would not have kept pace with inflation if silver was bought in those years and sold today.
The years in which the blue line is below the red line are the years where silver would have outpaced inflation if silver was bought in those years and sold today.
The blue line is above the red line for 14 of the years. The blue line is below the red line for 95 of the years.
.
Ask the guy in who bought in 1975 how he feels about silver in 2000. Half of his investing life was wasted. And even now, 50 years later he is supposed to be satisfied with "matching inflaton"?
So lets do a volume weighted average price. See those bars under the price chart, that's volume. And contrary to Jmskis belief that no one was buying at those high prices, that's actually when most people were buying. They are buried when inflation is included. Absolutely buried!!
You are so vehement in your pursuit of the status quo. It's very admirable.
The buyer of the much maligned treasury bonds has done so much better.
He who strives for mediocrity will surely achieve it. Do better people.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
buy the spot dips, both price and the premium on real silver will drop giving one a double discount.
Just the opposite when spot rises - a double gain.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
there you go with your misguided "buy and hold." The guy who bought near the dips since 1975 and sold near the highs since then has done quite well.
Sure there is merit in holding PMs for dollar protection, you never know when the quick turn of events will occur. There is also much merit in buying and selling some of those PMs and applying the profits to increasing your stack when the dip reappears. Never hesitate to unload some of that stack when offered a good profitable opportunity. We know silver is volatile and we know that this is what makes it a good buy and sell product. I am all for selling silver eagles for $33 with spot at $23.42. I am confident I can buy them back cheaper. If I'm wrong the gains on what I didn't sell from the stack will provide me consolation.
If buying and selling PMs was not a profitable opportunity, why are there so many successful bullion dealers doing so?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I didn't say that no one was buying at those prices. I said that the high of $50 was only at that level for about 5 minutes and representations that a bunch of people bought at the high and then held for the next 25 years is simply wrong. Completely, irrefutably wrong.
I'm sure that there were some momentum buyers who got killed at the top, but if "most people" were buying at $50, the price would have continued higher. Most people had already stopped buying, and the ones who had bought at $50 certainly didn't hold their positions very long. They cut and ran as fast as they could, which is why the drop was steep and fast.
I remember getting out of gold early at around $625. I sold silver both before AND after the drop, and I made money on both sides of the spike because I had bought early and low. You buy silver when nobody wants it and that makes it kind of hard to do. It's not easy to pull the trigger when the price has been going nowhere for awhile, but that's the best time to buy.
The best time to sell is when you need a little cash. The more random when you sell, the better.
I knew it would happen.
So what you are saying is that PM folk always buy near the lows and sell near the highs. Is that right?
The omniscience of PM folk is impressive. Since markets are made up of collective decisions of millions (everyone), PMers are hence smarter than everyone.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No..it's all the buying that took it to 50 in the first place. And that's buying at 35, 36, 37, 38, ect.
Most people had already stopped buying, and the ones who had bought at $50 certainly didn't hold their positions very long.
How do you know that didn't hold it very long? You think folk sell as soon as the price dropped $2, $5, $10?
When everyone has bought as you state (stopped buying), they are now sellers. And since they've already stopped, there are no bids on the way down. This it why it could take 1 million ounces of buying pressure to move it from 35 to 50 and only 100,000 ounces of selling to bring it back to 35, leaving 900,000 ounces at loss or at best break even.
I'm not saying those are the actual numbers, but it's an illustration of how markets work. Heavy volume, which includes buying, always occurs at tops and prices collapse becuae they are no more buyers. Prices don't hit buys because J6P buys 10 ounces.
This happens with PMs, stocks, real estate, tulip bulbs and beanie babies.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Now change PM for stock market and you have agreement.
Every coin dealer on this forum will tell countless stories of folk bringing in daddy's or grandma's silver junk for sale. Stuff they've held for decades. Please do not say PM folk only buy at lows and sell at highs.
Or perhaps stock folk only buy at lows and sell at highs. And no one loses when the stock drops because they didn't buy at the high.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The 1980 silver price collapsed because the CFTC changed the rules to only allow selling (no buying) and they jacked up the margin requirements as well. On top of that Volker raised interest rates to 20%.
That’s probably when the FED realized that they could start manipulating the markets to their own advantage. If Powell did the same thing now, there would be NO stock market and NO real estate market.
I don’t recall what the volume was at the time of the 1980 silver spike, but the steepness of both the upside and downside of the spike tells me that there weren’t that many participants on either side of the trade,
I knew it would happen.
The FED determines the future of all markets. They decide which income group receive which crumbs.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If I have to resort to crumbs, I can thank Uncle Sam for surrendering to the FRB. Is that what I'm reading ?
Seems like a conspiracy by the banks. Not to mention one of theirs is now the treasury secretary. Free crumbs for everyone.
Thank Aunt Janet.
While this debate.,... seems to go on and on.... and on and on.... there is one thing that is being overlooked. Hindsight is 100%. It is easy to be an armchair quarterback... after the game is over. And pick data points that will support one's belief, whether pro or con.
It's a different story to predict or forecast what will happen in the future. As nearly all financial offerings say, "Past performance is not indication of future performance " or similar.
Those 'darn' statistics!
The case for $5 gutter metal would have been a more fitting title. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Or "50 cent forum member." Your welcome
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Sorry you picked the wrong asset to sink all your eggs into. I know the gutter peddlers can at times be convincing but please no need to take your frustrations out on me. PEACE!
P.S. Please go outside and take a look at this beautiful world. It's the most amazing gift you and I will ever know.....And if you're game come to The Commonwealth for a week. I'll host you. Or just come on up for the big money show, I think it's in Blitzburgh this year (Aug 8-12th). We can try to peddle our overpriced ASE's back to the snake oil salesmen. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
.
That is a chart of silver on the commodity exchange, and the volume is the number of contracts transacted. For every buyer, there is a seller.
You fail to realize (of course) that most of the buyers during the 1980 ramp-up to $50 were actually short covering. A significant portion of those buys were forced liquidation of losing short positions (by buying to cancel out that short position). Those forced buyers were not "stackers". They were paper speculators.
.
$22.50.