Swami’s NFL futures 2023 Early addition
2dueces
Posts: 6,487 ✭✭✭✭✭
Welcome to Swami’s after the draft Early addition of the NFL.
Let’s recap the last 2 years.
2021
O/U totals broke dead even but I hit the Rams SB win for $1200.
2022
O/U totals +$500 - $200 SB for a +$300
Long wait for a $300 return but did better than the stock market.
Ok so betting lines haven’t opened yet but totals are posted and I’m waiting. Some draft thoughts.
Pittsburgh had a great draft and Pickett with a year under their belt looks like an up season. No west coast travel, first home opener in 10 years and they face no team coming off a bye. I’m looking at the over.
Washington O/U 6.5. Team is counting on who at QB. Yeah me too. I haven’t a clue. They play for games against teams coming off byes. Under.
Baltimore O/U 9.5. I’ll be the first to admit I don’t like Lamar but this team won 10 games, should have beat Cincinnati with Huntley. Their defense is a beast and last years #1 receiver is now their #4. I’m flagging this as my #2 early.
New England O/U 7.5. Alright Patriots fans. Just hold for a second. Money has no favorite or haters.
Their first four games are against elite defenses. They only get a break by week 9 against Washington and the Colts. Their strength of schedule is terrible and they play in the most complete division in football. Going 0-4 and Mac Jones maybe holding a clip board. Sorry but the Patriots will have a top 5 draft choice next year. I’m camped out side Harrahs to pound the under 7.5 for $500. Obviously my #1 early favorite.
More later.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Comments
This post was so excellent, that I decided to give you a like despite what you said about my Pats.
Sorry. As you know I make early opinions on trades, drafts, strength of schedule and past performances. A lot can happen from here until September but I don’t think the friction between Mac Jones and the coaching staff is over. Bailey Zappe just might be the opening day starter.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
No chance Jones isnt the opening day starter unless Jones gets hurt or they just tank the season/ I dont think Mac Jones is the guy but neither is any QB on their roster. Bad draft overall I like the under as well
Washington I might just stay away from. Their QBs are good with Howell as the "best" and he has some potential but that should be a backup. Frobes is a ball hawk that can change games, I like the under but they always seem like one of those teams thats never wins anything but does just enough to make sure they dont get an elite draft pick either.
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
...
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Right now I'm focusing my attention on. The NBA/NHL playoffs, I got some investments going.
Once my bets lose then I will get into NFL
So it’s been since my birthday and join day, May 14th since a post on this thread.
I wanted to see what would transpired beginning mandatory training camp, trades, cuts etc.
Dalvin Cook and D-Hop hit the market as Cuts! Wow. I doubt anyone saw that coming. Cook wants $10M. No one wants to spend $10 M on a RB in a pass happy league no matter how good they are.
D-Hop is 31, coming off a PED shortened season. I seriously doubt he’s a #1 anymore, possibly at best a #1b with the right #1 to pull double coverage off.
Ok let’s get to another Swami offering. Arizona is a total mess right now. $40M cap hit on a QB who will probably miss half the season. That leaves Colt McCoy as #1. But even when Murray comes back are the really better? The two building blocks left in free agency and the only name player sat out mandatories. D-Hop was a $22M cap hit disaster.
They signed one player in free agency. The 33rd ranked player at a non essential position.
The good news, they stockpiled young draft choices this year and have 2 #1’s next year, quite possibly the #1 and #2 draft picks.
But this year is a total wash and I find it impossible to find 4.5 wins as Vegas has for the O/U.
How many games 17-18? I could realistically see and O for the Cardinals.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Nice write up Joe!
I think Cook will land in Miami, providing Miami HC doesn't abandon the run when it's working like he did last year so many times I think the Fins could challenge your Bills for top seed a out of AFC East
D Hop is a wild card, 31 in today's NFL isn't all that old but depending on the situation he lands in will be a factor
AZ is probably a 2 game winner
Would be surprised if Miami wanted to pay Cook unless hed sign cheap. They drafted Achane who was an elite back at A&M.
Miami is probably looking at a 3rd place finish again. Jets with Rodgers will probably be the favorites or at least equals with the Bills. Miami had basically no draft picks, and aside from Tuas injury concerns Tyreek Hill is now under investigation for assault which would be a massive blow if he gets suspended.
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
The board has been quietly waiting for September. Hoping DD’s neighbor a complete recovery and have him back in the saddle happily posting away every thought that passes through his head.
Which brings me to my latest research project and wager prospect.
Minnesota O/U 8.5 wins.
This team went 13-4 last year. Granted every bouncing ball, every game of inches measurement, every questionable call went the Vikings way last year.
The lose Dalvin Cook but obviously think Mattison will fill the role without much loss of talent.
So why does Vegas take a 13 win season and bet the at .500?
Kirk Cousins is a year older but I highly doubt we’ll see much drop off from a perfectly adequate QB.
Green Bay is a train wreck and frankly I’m not as high on Chicago and Fields as the talking heads. Isn’t there always a lot of off season hype about how improved a guy like Fields is? Mikey said it best. Everyone has a game plan until you get punched in the face.
The biggest hype is Detroit. 9.5 wins after a 9 win season last year. So Vegas has Detroit winning .5 more but dropping Minnesota down to .500?
Granted the Vikings do play a first place schedule but I still think 10 wins are not out of the question.
I’m not all warm and fuzzy, (not a great Cousins fan) but I’m putting a small wager on the over.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
..
Just looked at their schedule. 9 wins seems like a lock, but then again Vegas isn't stupid. 🤷
Agreed. I just don’t see them dipping below .500 at 8-9. 8.5 is that magic # that Vegas can get play on both sides and make a killing on the vig
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Packers O/U 7.5
Even the Packers reporters are struggling to find anything good or say about Jordan Love.
For five straight days the losing squad and coaches must do push ups. Didn’t matter what drill, 2 minute offensive, goal line etc the offense was eating grass after practice.
Love’s performance has been mediocre at best and down right ugly at times.
But they have the softest schedule I’ve seen so far and I just can’t see how they won’t win at least 7 games. This wager is a crap shoot but I’m putting a few dineros on the under just because Love is the weakest QB in that division.
Packers under 7.5 for $100
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Funny because I've read some positive stuff on Love on cbssports
But either way the Packers should struggle, the supporting cast and suspect D tells me that is a good bet
If anyone can make Jordan Love a very good QB they deserve to have their salary at least tripled. Hes just not good. He had one good year in the Mountain West in College and was bad his final season.
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
Yeah most of the Packers reporters are having a lovefest but truth is much different
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Ofcourse, they don't want to challenge the mystique of the Vaunted Green Bay Packers who are the most overrated franchises in the NFC, more so than the Cowboys
Forum members on ignore
Erba - coolstanley-dallasactuary-SDsportsfan
daltex
I hear people pushing the over as a good bet. Rams o/u wins at 6.5.
If they’re half way decent 7 wins with that schedule isn’t out of the question. Only problem I see is they look to start the season 0-3.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Rams are a sore subject for me along with Green Bay, both those teams screwed me on my team future parlays last season
I had them winning the division. Oops
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Watching the Rams first game and seeing how Stafford literally couldn't throw I kinda knew it was a bad bet right then and there
Most teams have released their 53 man roster (subject to change) and I have about 10 futures in mind. This year I’m stuck at 6 no matter how hard I look.
I’ll play a 7th if I can find the Bills O/U 11. Not because it makes good sense but why not have an interest while I’m being a homer.
I’ll probably play 3 teams to win the Super Bowl. Anyone have a vested interest in Super Bowl futures and why?
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Joe I really haven't looked too much into the team futures
I usually wait until after the last presets game
I look at the NFL power ranks, strength of schedule and of course the 53 man roster.
What I find most interesting this year is 3 AFC East teams Bills 5, Jets 8 and Dolphins 9 in the top 10.
If a team can go 4-2 in this division the playoffs are a good bet. It’s a rough road for your Patriots.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Panthers O/U 7.5
The good thing about the Panthers this year is they haven’t lost a game yet. The bad thing about the Panthers is they might not win a game. Not a very impressive showing against the Jets. 84 yards in the first half, no third down conversion. No points through 55 minutes and everyone is gushing about Bryce Young. The omens are there for a 4 win season.
Panthers under 7.5 for $250
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Recap so far
Washington under 6.5 for 100
Ravens over 9.5 for 250
Patriots under 7.5 for 500
Cardinals under 4.5 for 250
Packers under 7.5 for 100
Minnesota over 8.5 for 100
Panthers under 7.5 for 100
Bills over 10.5 for 250
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I disagree with Washington and your Bills
Every other pick looks solid
That’s the look you want for the player you spend $300M on and the face of your franchise.
My NFL future prediction. After this year they have 2 #1 draft picks. Quite possibly #1 and another top 5. They cut mini mouse, eat all His guaranteed money and sign a QB on a rookie contract.
The rookie contract will ease the cap hit for the mistake of signing a player that’s more interested in playing video games than studying game film.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
with that said, Frank Costanza's mind would be blown.
i think he'll be gone too. it'll probably be Caleb Williams time. if not, it'll be because he played his ass off and they decided to use those two picks to build around him. but coming off of a shredded ACL...........and considering the cupboard is very bare around him...............
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
...
I didn't know what it was, and did a reverse search. There are lots of pics of men wearing it with a shirt underneath it. It kind of looks funny the way Kyler is wearing it. 🤷
Going just the system with no shirt is definitely a bold move since they can end up looking like sports bras. No idea why he didnt have them just extend the fabric lower and just look like a compression shirt if he wants to go shirtless. But yea basically everyone wears one at least some of the time, even the big college programs use them.
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
Closer we get to season start, tougher things look.
San Francisco 49ers. Is Brock Purdy the real deal or is he another Gardener Minchew? Is there enough film on him to burst the Pretty Purdy Mister Irrevelant bubble?
I’m positive Trey Lance is a bust so this is a very sketchy wager.
49ers over 10.5 for 100
Division-175 for 175
Conference +350 for 100
Super Bowl +1000 for 100
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces or anyone else, do you ever look into the over/unders for individual performances. I hear these often being discussed on the radio.
No just because of the risk of injury. Same with betting game stats. If a player plays one play your wager is active
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
SF is going to the Super Bowl in my opinion,I like all these bets
Their roster is stacked. I may have to eat my words about Lance as he was good yesterday. (Preseason). Like any teams SB hopes it all depends on the QB. No disrespect for Philly but if SF had a healthy QB the Championship Game would have had a different outcome.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Guess I won’t be eating my words about Lance. Embarrassing situation for the 49ers but Lynch owned it on his broadcast last night.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Very impressive with Pittsburgh this preseason. Yes I know, preseason but their O/U is 8.5 and outside the division playing a fairly weak schedule. I’ll take a shot
Pittsburgh over 8.5 for 100
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
this will be Mike Tomlin's 17th year as HC for the Steelers. not once have they finished below .500 during his tenure. the offense will be improved and they've still got those two studs on D. 8th easiest schedule.
you just won a benjamin
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Until the #’s get ridiculous I’m going to wager against the Arizona Cardinals every game. If I’m correct the line will very soon creep into the double digits.
Washington-7 for 100
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
they are in full-blown tank mode. last week they traded away Isaiah Simmons (8th overall pick in the '20 draft) for a bag of turnips to the Giants. and rumor has it that Murray may not play all year.
their goal isn't to win games this season..........it's to have #1 & #2 in next year's draft
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Line actually has moved to -6.5. Crazy
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Jacksonville is -120 to win their division this morning.
Looks like Richardson might miss the rest of the season.
Tennessee is packing it in and
Houston is scrappy but not a division winner.
I’m laying 240 to win 200 on Jacksonville to win their division today
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Let’s visit the halfway point of swami ‘s futures.
49ers over 10.5 for 100
Division-175 for 175 to win 100
Conference +350 for 100
Super Bowl +1000 for 100
Jacksonville
Division-240 to win 200
Pittsburgh over 8.5 for 100
Washington under 6.5 for 100
Ravens over 9.5 for 250
Patriots under 7.5 for 500
Cardinals under 4.5 for 250
Packers under 7.5 for 100
Minnesota over 8.5 for 100
Panthers under 7.5 for 100
Bills over 10.5 for 250
49ers were rolling until the 3 game losing streak. I was all but counting the division and conference money but 5-3 isn’t time to panic.
Jacksonville has a 2.5 game lead at the halfway mark.
Pittsburgh 4-4 might win 9 at this pace.
Washington 3-5 and having a fire sale
Ravens 6-2 might be the hottest team in the AFC on the way to 10+.
Patriots 2-6. The need to go 6-3 to reach 8 wins a ruin my top future bet.
Cardinals 1-7 traded their starting QB at least a week before Murray returns
Packers 2-5 Jordan Love ends the 20+ years of great QB’s in GB. Sure looking like a huge mistake
Minnesota 4-4. Just got on a roll and the season ends now. But they only need to go 5-4 for me to cash
Panthers 1-6. Maybe I should have put all $2000 on this one.
Bills 5-3. 6 more wins is too much to ask with their schedule and major injuries.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
.
49ers over 10.5 for 100
Division-175 for 175 to win 100
Conference +350 for 100
Super Bowl +1000 for 100
Jacksonville
Division-240 to win 200
Pittsburgh over 8.5 for 100
Washington under 6.5 for 100
Ravens over 9.5 for 250
Patriots under 7.5 for 500
Cardinals under 4.5 for 250
Packers under 7.5 for 100
Minnesota over 8.5 for 100
Panthers under 7.5 for 100
Bills over 10.5 for 250
Two weeks to go.
Cashed
SF over 10.5
SF division
Raven over
Patriots under
Panthers under
Washington under
Losses None
Still alive
Jacksonville division
Cardinals I need one loss
Pittsburgh I need one win
Packers need to lose out
Minnesota and Buffalo
Need to win out
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
i have you at +1150 as it currently stands
very nice work
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Nice work @2dueces