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Gold premium
percyb
Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭
Which gold coins carry the least amount of premium,
and do you expect that premium to expand once the
other coins premium become too exorbitant?
I ask because I have a couple of first wives coins and though up in
price with gold,
have gained little premium.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
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The $5 gold commemoratives have a low premium. Same gold as the pre 1933 fives. Until people catch on that these are good US gold and the demand goes up the premiums will stay low.
If your holding out and waiting for the first spouses to gain more premium, I would not hold your breathe. They have everything going against them. They will probably always sell similar to the commemorative arts gold medals. This is not a bad thing for those of us who like to buy gold and gain as many ounces as possible. That being said if you’re selling I would be interested…. I am building a set of uncs and have also started acquiring the proofs when the right deal comes along.
I have also been stacking first spouses and $5 gold commemorative coins. Also buy British sovereigns if the deal is right. I doubt any of them gain significant premiums. Not enough people collect by date and build sets. So demand will remain close to spot. It’s hard to get your premiums back out when you decide to sell. So stick with the low premium gold.
That’s my 2 cents…..
There was a time not too many years ago when sovereigns carried a nice premium. They have lost a little popularity. The sovereign and the $5 commemoratives are my stack coins for smaller gold.
There was a time when you had a hard time getting melt for AU twenty libs. but now they sell for more than AGEs. Popularity changes with the times.
I do agree that the spouse coins may take a long, long time to see any premium.
Premiums are going up across the board. A Saint I purchased basically for spot gold 4 years ago just sold for a 15% premium.
this applies to US coins. Many foreign coins carry even less premium
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi Nakamoto
People have offered ~5% above spot for the 2019-W NGC American Liberty 1oz gold that I have and am looking to sell. I think that is pretty low, but, what do I know....?
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
There are collector premiums and PM premiums... When the PM premiums go up, the collector premiums tend to suffer. We will likely see rising PM premiums for a while. Cheers, RickO
I appreciate your keen insights, ones I hadn't considered. I don't have any to sell at the moment-- Just pondering the lack of premium on the spouses to the spot price.
That kind of surprises me about the collector premiums suffering, but it does seem
to be the case, as you aptly noted. I guess there's no sense waiting for premium expansion
on the spouses, for now anyway. I was also thinking that the population figures (somewhat low)
would warrant more premium--but nay.
That does seem low of AL 1 oz. I've seen much higher premiums on those.
Hard to imagine the compressed premium...
@percyb - The spouses have a lot of cons…. Ugly designs, long series, expensive set to complete (considering most Americans can’t come up with the cash to buy one without a credit card), and no common obverse or reverse….. All these things work against them and create an environment of low demand, which I doubt will change in the next 50+ years.
But the 2 pros that the series has make them attractive enough for me to want them. #1 -They are pure gold and right now two can be had for the same premium price as buying a full ounce of gold #2 They have very low mintages, plus tons of these have been melted.
For several years, I was buying multiples of the spouse coins as a speculation. This approach failed in terms of collector premium, but I have been bailed out by the rising price of gold (which was part of the original speculation as well).
As Crusty notes, the mintages are relatively low. They remind me of the classic commemorative half dollars that were minted from 1921 through 1954. As with the classic commemorative halves, there might be a few of the spouses that generate a following, but most of them will not.
It may take awhile to see any real demand to materialize, other than the demand for gold bullion. Still, I know that a few collectors actually do collect them and the pendulum may swing in their direction some day.
Maybe in a century
I knew it would happen.
@jmski52 said: “As with the classic commemorative halves, there might be a few of the spouses that generate a following, but most of them will not.”
If I were to buy an example or two, I might go for Mary Lincoln or Julia Grant, or maybe Eleanore Roosevelt. Certainly some extraordinary and/or colorful women to choose from.
I’m curious: if you were to guess as to long term popularity, which few would you choose?
European 20Fc, Mexican 10, 20, and 50 Pesos, British Sovereigns etc. those are the lowest premiums coins you will find.....on coins that anyone will ever want to buy from you without a lowball offer anyways. Stack on. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
My candidate for one of the lowest premium gold coins... may be the 1976 Canadian Olympics $100 14k gold... 1/4 ounce AGW. Seems like I see a lot of them, very low premium. Not much in demand I guess. Just saw one for $520 and free shipping.....
@blitzdude said: European 20Fc, Mexican 10, 20, and 50 Pesos, British Sovereigns etc. those are the lowest premiums coins you will find.....on coins that anyone will ever want to buy.
All great coins, but hard not to love a George V sovereign.
For years, because of their purity and low after market price, gold US spouse coins were the smartest play when stacking gold. Since then those who hold them have come to their senses when selling them.
Those containing .9999 gold.
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi Nakamoto
Now that you mention it, they are rather funky save for the first few wives. I agree
that they're good for waging on the increased price of gold. A dealer near me
said he melts them, too.
Agree, I had to think through this a bit but a you note, the low premium is a nice
way to play the price of the metal.
I like Martha.
And Jackie Kennedy. And the classic designs - Jefferson, Jackson, VanBuren, Buchanan. Maybe Dolly Madison.
If lots of these were being melted, it could be decades before any true indication of rarity will be evident - but maybe - someday a rarity premium could happen. In the meantime, they are .999 gold.
I knew it would happen.
I agree with @jmski52 about the classic designs. But I’d say other than those 4, collectors should focus their attention to the lowest mintage examples. There is a big difference between a mintage of 10k+ and a coin with less than 2k. As mentioned before we won’t get a real sense of survival estimates for years to come. And may never get a good idea because most of these spouses never got slabbed.
I know most here are talking just gold value, but several of these first spouses in PCGS 70 first strike labels have populations of less than 100 and not many more are being graded. Few modern coins are that rare and these are becoming actually very hard to find.
I would pay a 50% premium for all the 2020 Barbara Bush PR70 first strikes you have available for sale.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
It will likely be a long time before large collector premiums are realized. Meantime, gold will be rising, though a bit late to ride that pony.... Cheers, RickO
Not sure I posted this....but I recently sold a 1915-S MS-63 OGH which I paid spot gold for at FUN 2020.
Went to my LCS....gold was $1,980 that day on his chalk board....I got $2,300 for the coin, a 15% premium where none existed 4 years earlier.
gold spouse coins are 4 nines purity
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi Nakamoto
There was a time when the American Arts Commemorative Medals (predecessor to the American gold eagle) could be had at little to no premium. Stocked up on quite a few of them and then sold when their premiums and the price of gold shot up.
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi Nakamoto
Quite a few of those gold arts medallions.... surely have been melted. Wonder what surviving mintages are.
To follow up on discerning an accurate population of these babies, I sold a VanBuren a while back. Guy told me he was going to melt it.
@percyb - I believe it. I don’t think I’ve ever seen my local shop offer a first spouse. Certainly not in the last decade. Probably because they get melted instead of sitting in his cases taking up space. Space needed for the OGP is another factor holding these back. Not many have the space to store these with the OGP.
What is the advantage to melting these down? I can see throwing away the OGP but I don't understand why these are being melted down as they are already refined.
Because the market has decided that these are ugly. They are a harder sell than a nice looking bar or round.
The spouses can be as ugly as sin, but they are still certifiable and recognizable as 1/2 oz. pure gold. Melting them is just an emotional response, but with some of them, I get it.
If the really ugly ones get melting en masse, won't it blow your mind when they become rarities that are selling at a discount?
I knew it would happen.
They may not gain a collector premium in most or our lifetimes, but will likely see a PM premium of significance.... hold on to them. Cheers, RickO
All of them look good to me, just turn them over
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
He suggested as much and noted then that he was most interested in American Eagles,
Most often premiums paid are based on hopes of being passed on at later sale. Buyers are willing to pay a higher premium for what they believe the market believes are premium products. As more people realize that spouse's are four nines pure and from the US mint spouse premiums will increase. They have already increased since I bought a boat full on the secondary market when they were only a couple of years old.
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi Nakamoto
It's funny because the premiums on TPG common/generic gold are VERY strong. I sold a 1915-S Saint MS-63 OGH that I bought for spot at FUN 2020. Sold it a few weeks ago for 15% premium to gold.
World one ounce gold coins ranked by dollar premium and percent premium.
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi Nakamoto
Bloomberg News
May 6, 2023, at 8:24 PM PDT
China added to its gold reserves for a sixth straight month, extending a flurry of purchases as central banks around the world expand their holdings of bullion amid escalating geopolitical and economic risks.
China raised its gold holdings by about 8.09 tons in April, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Sunday. Total stockpiles now sit at about 2,076 tons, after the nation increased reserves by about 120 tons in the five months through March.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
As they reduce their exposure to US debt.
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” - Satoshi Nakamoto
Change in M2 money supply -4% year over year. Yes, it went up during Covid at a record rate causing inflation, but that easy money is falling off fast now. Edited to point out this graph goes back to 1960, so this is a serious development.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Excellent!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear