State of the hobby, what to expect at FUN.

sparky64

I would appreciate members takes on the current state of the hobby and what to possibly expect at FUN.
Whats hot, whats not...

I have not stayed very current for much of 2022 and am looking for a rapid catch-up.

The story I took away from last year at FUN was dealers buying like I've never seen before. Most all had wanting to buy signs and were paying strong prices.

Thanks,
Mark

coinbuf

I'm no expert on the market, but I think you can expect to see dealers still very excited to buy better quality coins but at slightly less exuberant buy prices than last year. Just average material and common date stuff still moving but not at last years levels.

Project Numismatics

Good commentary from Legend on this topic:

https://www.legendnumismatics.com/market_reports/we-welcome-2023/

291fifth

Any time they start pushing "long term hold" you know things must be starting to slow down.

PeakRarities

@jkrk said:
No one asked but here is a recap of the last few years from a "drek" E-Bay double eagle dealer. If Legend is the elephant we are the pimple.

We opened our store in 2018 expecting to sell off excessive inventory or swap out of coins that were "stale" to us and replace them with coins of more interest. Make money? Not a real consideration after fees, etc. We were in the retirement mode so selling coins is sometimes a chore.

We muddled along until late 2020. Most of our profits came from E-Bay Bonus bucks and rising gold prices. The store accomplished our goals.

Then, in 2021 lightening struck. Premiums moved up substantially. We were seeing real profits, after paying E-Bay. Gold was moving up a bit but nowhere near the increase in premiums. We probably sold more coins in 2021 than we sold in the prior 3 years of having the store. We started buying in auctions more aggressively. We knew that intellectually, not to confuse brains with a bull market. We started to expand beyond generics just hoping to fill the store with something (we didn't increase our capital exposure even though we were buying some higher priced coins so we maintained discipline). In fact, we allocated 5% of our total gold holdings to a bit of more expensive coins. We are always ready for a downturn.

2021 was a barnburner. Surprisingly to us, 2022 was better. Aug 2022 was the best yet. In August we were selling coins that we put up just for show and a few sold. looking back in 2022 we closed the store once or twice before Sept, looking for more inventory. The irony is that we put the store on vacation 3-4 times after Sept due to not being home and unable to ship. Thus, we sold very, very little after Aug and attributed the very slow sales to not being open. We did have a decent December so we also are left wondering about the state of the DE coin market ourselves?

From what Im seeing, the DE market may have lulled a little bit in the end of the year as you suggest, but I chalk that up to a lack of quality examples and overly optimistic pricing by dealers. I've had trouble locating type coins (in my price range), which I only want one Lib and one saint and I'm being very picky about it. GC has had a lot of common date coins, but the nice CAC better date coins continue to sell at prices consistent with the run up. Last night I was blown away on a gorgeous 1928 saint in 65cac ogh. Although I had budgeted a lot more for my Saint type coin, I was really impressed with how solid for the grade this coin was, and I thought I could get it for 3500 or less. I had graded the coin as a 66, and recent trends from the whole year show 65cac-65+cac coins selling in between 2800-3200, consistently. I was prepared to pay at the very high end of that spectrum, and my bids were demolished. The coin realized a whopping $4729. (congrats if anyone reading won that coin)

Also, here is Doug Winters analysis of the gold market throughout the year, another good read like Laura's write up.

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2022/12/20/2022-what-was-hot-and-what-was-not

Pnies20

Colorful type coins in PCGS plastic with CAC stickers are always in style and have been especially hot for the past year.

Stronger bids in auctions are constantly needed throughout the past year and prices in various fixed priced lists continue to go up.

sparky64

Thanks for the opinions and links.
That helps.
I guess we'll all learn a little more by this time next week.

jmlanzaf

@J2035 said:
Good commentary from Legend on this topic:

https://www.legendnumismatics.com/market_reports/we-welcome-2023/

I think that is one of her better pieces.

lermish

@jmlanzaf said:

@J2035 said:
Good commentary from Legend on this topic:

https://www.legendnumismatics.com/market_reports/we-welcome-2023/

I think that is one of her better pieces.

It is a good piece and I appreciate her insight...but my pedantic side is just dying. Can she get a spell checker? For the first section heading of her article???

ricko

I will be closely watching show reports from FUN.... Especially the gold/bullion market action. Should be picking up, especially with the economic predictions. We shall see... Cheers, RickO

DisneyFan

"Economic news will play a large factor in determining the overall strength of the coin market in 2023. If we enter a Recession, it is likely that the middle-end of the market will suffer most (in the world of rare date gold, this means coins priced at $5,000-25,000+).

Hard-core collectors who buy nice sub-$5,000 coins will likely still be active buyers, especially if they can buy a coin which was $4500 in early 2022 for $3750 in mid-2023. Buyers of very expensive Trophy Coins are likely to be less impacted by a possible Recession, and I would think they will still compete for one-of-a-kind items." Douglas Winter

Interesting report from the deep end of the pool.

Soldi

@291fifth said:
Any time they start pushing "long term hold" you know things must be starting to slow down.

I, for many reasons, would agree.

logger7

@DeplorableDan said:

@jkrk said:
No one asked but here is a recap of the last few years from a "drek" E-Bay double eagle dealer. If Legend is the elephant we are the pimple.

We opened our store in 2018 expecting to sell off excessive inventory or swap out of coins that were "stale" to us and replace them with coins of more interest. Make money? Not a real consideration after fees, etc. We were in the retirement mode so selling coins is sometimes a chore.

We muddled along until late 2020. Most of our profits came from E-Bay Bonus bucks and rising gold prices. The store accomplished our goals.

Then, in 2021 lightening struck. Premiums moved up substantially. We were seeing real profits, after paying E-Bay. Gold was moving up a bit but nowhere near the increase in premiums. We probably sold more coins in 2021 than we sold in the prior 3 years of having the store. We started buying in auctions more aggressively. We knew that intellectually, not to confuse brains with a bull market. We started to expand beyond generics just hoping to fill the store with something (we didn't increase our capital exposure even though we were buying some higher priced coins so we maintained discipline). In fact, we allocated 5% of our total gold holdings to a bit of more expensive coins. We are always ready for a downturn.

2021 was a barnburner. Surprisingly to us, 2022 was better. Aug 2022 was the best yet. In August we were selling coins that we put up just for show and a few sold. looking back in 2022 we closed the store once or twice before Sept, looking for more inventory. The irony is that we put the store on vacation 3-4 times after Sept due to not being home and unable to ship. Thus, we sold very, very little after Aug and attributed the very slow sales to not being open. We did have a decent December so we also are left wondering about the state of the DE coin market ourselves?

From what Im seeing, the DE market may have lulled a little bit in the end of the year as you suggest, but I chalk that up to a lack of quality examples and overly optimistic pricing by dealers. I've had trouble locating type coins (in my price range), which I only want one Lib and one saint and I'm being very picky about it. GC has had a lot of common date coins, but the nice CAC better date coins continue to sell at prices consistent with the run up. Last night I was blown away on a gorgeous 1928 saint in 65cac ogh. Although I had budgeted a lot more for my Saint type coin, I was really impressed with how solid for the grade this coin was, and I thought I could get it for 3500 or less. I had graded the coin as a 66, and recent trends from the whole year show 65cac-65+cac coins selling in between 2800-3200, consistently. I was prepared to pay at the very high end of that spectrum, and my bids were demolished. The coin realized a whopping $4729. (congrats if anyone reading won that coin)

Also, here is Doug Winters analysis of the gold market throughout the year, another good read like Laura's write up.

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2022/12/20/2022-what-was-hot-and-what-was-not

"If we enter a recession...." Many indicators we are there and have been for a while.

Cougar1978

FUN-Plan to be doing some buying, loaded with buying cash. A lot of what I buy at shows does well in my online store.

Shows will always be around. The excitement of the bourse, doing biz with wholesaler friends & picking up deals on slabs (online or show retail), selling raw collector coins & currency under $100 to brisk collector traffic, selling Mexico Libertads, Chasing nice low pop world silver and gold coins, plus the coin show food make for a great time. As far as speculative jazz shows on way out I say to them “in your dreams (lol).”

Catbert

“…..coin show food make for a great time”

Your show food experience differs significantly from mine! 😂