Percentage of jewels ...still lurking?
FrankH
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Back in the 1970's really nice rare coins (rarity AND condition) were still trickling in to local coin shops and many shows.
Just curious. What percentage of the wonderful coins do you think are still lurkiing "out there?"
Talking old forgotten collections and attic troves.
Percentage of jewels ...still lurking?
This is a private poll: no-one will see what you voted for.
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Comments
So raw "jewels" that are discovered do not count?
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More than 25%# go Population increases the number of collectors increases and the number of collections as well.
# GoSo many variables but one thing for sure the population is not decreasing. 🧐
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Outside of some rarity being discovered in a Paris flea market or a Swiss vault, I think what is known is known.
We have almost a century of organized searching by dealers and deep pocket collectors with the provenance backing them up.
PM's have been melted in large numbers.
I say a fraction of way less than 1%
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Really depends on what coins he's talking about. I saw a really nice raw collection of old copper from a 70 year old collection just turn up. I also saw a set of proof $2.5 come out. If those count, I think you'd be surprised how much stuff is still in SDBs. Both of those collections had similar origins. Belonged to the father of the current, now elderly owner, who put it away 30+ years ago when Dad died and never looked at it again until they were moving.
God knows what out there, meanwhile enjoy the show 🙂
The assumption is that when a "jewel" is "discovered" it stays that way. But many jewels return to anonymity and wait to be discovered again.
This. Also depends upon known to whom. Coins may be known to those who have collected it (for a long time) but not the general collector population.
There is a somewhat old article on Coin Week where Jeff Garrett made this claim, generically with no specifics. Harvey Stack replied contradicting him, though also providing no specifics. I'll go with Harvey Stack on this one.
I've looked at Coin Facts extensively which provides estimates for total, MS-60+, and MS-65+. The estimates are all over the place, sometimes way above the TPG populations and other times for the higher grades below it. The condition census coins (usually top 10) are also included and are sometimes higher than the estimates for MS-60+ or MS-65+.
I think most silver and base metal 20th century US have more or a lot more than the TPG data indicate, usually, even if the coin is expensive like that 1916 SLQ from another recent thread. On the other hand, it's less likely for low survival rate 19th century such scarcer Liberty Seated and gold Liberty Head denominations.
Totally different for non-US where TPG is usually not preferred by non-US collectors. Most of those coins are not graded but still may be "known".
It is not clear what the 'percentage' represents. Percent of mintage? Of estimated error/variety?... Compared to known specific finds? Need clarification. Cheers, RickO
Add to that, like so many other words that are used in our industry, the term “jewel” is highly ambiguous.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
For poll purposes, "percentage" was intended to represent desirable classic-ISH coins.
"Jewel" was arbitrary but I considered and rejected "gems."
Sooooooooooo...... Just guessing at the quantities left "out there."
So if there are 100 known examples... 'left out there' would be a percent of 100? Is that correct? Cheers, RickO
I think the fairly/really high end pieces are largely known ($10k+?)
For coins on the $500-$10k range I would imagine there to be an awful lot out there just being passed down without much thought.
My thinking is that the reply e pensive stuff was mostly bought/owned/handled by people who were in the know and took care of things like that estate-wise.
No one in my family ever had fancy gold. It’s not the kind of family I come from (like most people).
It’s possible an ancestor of mine (or similar) tucked away an 09S VDB from circulation or even a16D Merc or something along those lines, though, and that sort of stuff could be lurking in cigar boxes all over the country.
Is "known" the whole story? Mintage, 100....all accounted for?
Below is a link to a “jewel” that had been lurking, recently surfaced, got graded and was auctioned by Heritage (just last week). Many of you would be very surprised to see some of the coins that surface for the first time in decades.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/liberty-double-eagles/double-eagles/1851-20-ms65-pcgs-cac-pcgs-8904-/a/1351-3681.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
Description
1851 Double Eagle, MS65+
Fresh to Market, Endorsed by CAC
The Sole Finest Known
1851 $20 MS65+ PCGS. CAC. The United States double eagle was introduced for regular circulation in 1850 after the denomination was authorized in 1849. In essence, these coins were originally intended as a means of converting the vast quantities of gold coming out of California after 1848 into usable coinage in an efficient manner. According to Q. David Bowers (2014), "Double eagles used more than 75% of that metal." The coins were employed in domestic commerce, but they were just important in international trade, if not more. Once received overseas, twenty dollar gold pieces were valued strictly for their intrinsic value, melted, and recoined.
In the case of the 1851 double eagle, the Mint struck nearly 2.1 million coins -- almost doubling output over the previous year. However, writing for doubleeaglebook.com, Doug Winter estimates that only 2,500 to 3,500+ examples of the 1851 Philadelphia twenty survive in all grades with the population fairly evenly distributed across the VF to AU grade levels. Perhaps 200 or 300 representatives exist in Mint State. Nearly all of those Uncirculated coins fall within the MS60 to MS62 range, though small quantities exist in MS63 and MS64. To date, two or three near-Gems have held the position of finest known. That is until this spectacular Gem came to light.
When asked about the origin of this incredible condition rarity, our consignor relayed the following information:
"My great-grandfather lived in Marblehead Massachusetts & owned a general store. When Roosevelt requested gold coins be returned to the Federal government, he put his coins in a safe deposit box.
"My grandmother & mother saved the coins. They were passed on to ... me."
So, what we have here is a top-graded second-year double eagle that is as fresh to market as can be. The coin is miraculously well-preserved and affirmed by both PCGS and CAC for its quality within the grade. Rich yellow-gold surfaces show complete detail on Liberty's portrait and the eagle. Evidence of die polish appears in the fields, though light cracks encircle the reverse. Fulsome luster and a minimum of abrasions account for the unmatched technical assessment. Expect a new world record price to be set when this piece crosses the block. Population: 1 in 65 (1 in 65+), 0 finer. CAC: 1 in 65, 0 finer (10/22).(Registry values: N1)
Coin Index Numbers: (NGC ID# 268H, PCGS# 8904)
Weight: 33.44 grams
Metal: 90% Gold, 10% Copper
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
About 15 years ago, a silver centered cent walked into a local B&M. It had been in the Wolcott family since the revolution. No one outside the family knew it existed. I'm a firm believer that there is a lot more out there than people think. People on this forum tend to think that every worthwhile coin is in plastic on a census.
My question is how/why was the coin so well preserved from 1851 until 1932?
"Every" is a bit narrowing. There are always a few purists and some families that passed an heirloom on through a few generations. There are no reason to grade those coins unless they will be coming to market. I suspect that there are more top graded coins are still in private hands. With that said, my gut tells me that a very, very large percentage of worthwhile coins have already been slabbed. Perhaps due to a fear of running out of plastic?
** People on this forum tend to think that every worthwhile coin is in plastic on a census.**
And if it’s not entombed, it MUST be a problem coin!
There is nothing unusual about it. Even excluding ancient coinage, it's not hard to find European coins much older in comparable quality.
Raw coin? Who is the seller? My bet is that if you bought the coin on E-Bay ... you bought a problem coin.
I worded it badly. Unusal ? No. I'm just impressed.
How many shipwrecks with coins are still waiting to be discovered?
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nevermind...
I can remember a Jack Tar show with an entire table of the thick bust $5s and $2.5s that i didn't have the money for.
I never see those anymore.
On roadtrips, even local coin shops had "jewels"
Even ..gems.
Some managed to come it to my shop in the early days.
All new to the market. Prior to slabs.
(old Mavica pix)
In what price range?
I sell 75% raw on ebay. The only problem coins are clearly labeled as problems.
I bet I know what you said even though I missed it. Lol
Since it was in a SDB from 1933 and in his great grandfather's collection prior, it only needs to have one prior owner to get you back to 1850.
Do you ever ask how much money has been absolutely wasted on slabbing NICE coins that don't need slabbing?
You're probably right. I replied before I finished reading the thread and when I went back, saw somebody else already said the same thing.
I took his remark to be tongue in cheek….
There is something unusual about it - its state of preservation compared to every other graded example. It’s not a European coin, so your comparison is largely irrelevant.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
These little “jewels” showed up in the shop I work at last summer. They were raw and in an estate. We had them slabbed, I got the half dime
You never know what’s out there waiting to be found.
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Any dealer with any sense who buys a collection like this will get the coins slabbed before selling them, as will any auction house they're consigned to. If you're not a dealer, you don't see these coins raw when the owners go to sell them. Doens't mean they don't exist.
I own many coins in a quality that is a lot harder to find than this coin and these aren't European. The circumstances which were required to make it happen are a lot less improbable too.
I took his point to be that if a 500 year old coin survived in MS65/66, it isn't so shocking for a 170 year old coin.
Maybe...
I have heard several dealers opine that average collection walking into the door are always dreck except for that occasional coin. Seldom worth more than a few thousand.
Are you slabbing 10% of this collection on average?
As for the family heirloom collection worth some real money, no well off family is blindly unaware of value. They will maximize value through auction or aid of a legit dealer not trying to rip.
Nothing said has changed my opinion. Odds are just not adding up.
There may well be 25% of something out there… but it is still less than 1% of slab worthy. A lot less than 1% of pop altering and registry set worthy coins.
A whole different topic, PCGS and NGC don’t like impactful decisions on certain set in stone coin/grade/values.
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.> @yspsales said:
Yes, this is presumably true and should be expected.
Yes, they aren't financial novices, whether they are coin collectors or not. They didn't become affluent by being clueless about managing assets, regardless of which assets.
Which coins are you are talking about? It varies greatly by type of coin.
Whichever it is, over 99% of collectors have limited if any insight into what's available because they don't see it. This is presumably the source of Harvey Stack's reply to Jeff Garrett in the Coin Week article and Garrett is in a much better position to know than most of us.
@WCC
All US coins.
Is a jewel a common date Morgan or Lincoln cent? A top pop modern statehood quarter?
I would guess we need a consensus definition. Grade? Dollar amount?
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I'll go with Harvey Stack's opinion.
The above examples meet about the lowest standard anyone can use. What's next, "lowball" coins?
It's always going to be subjective. Concurrently, I don't consider any coin (US or otherwise) a "jewel" based upon eligibility for any number on a holder label. But then, my standards are a lot higher than those in US collecting.
If you've been a collector for a very long time or are familiar with pre-70's US collecting, subjectively I'd consider the types of coins which had a high(er) perception then as being "jewel" eligible.
Since this is the US side of the forum, the coins I have in mind are probably always going to be expensive, but not necessarily high quality.
A chain cent or 1794 dollar in very low quality still meets my definition of a "jewel". A "top pop" of some common 20th century US coin won't ever meet my definition but will for many here.
I buy a lot of raw coins on ebay, very few of them have been undisclosed problem coins, less than 1% I'd estimate. I've been collecting for about 35 years, i trust my ability to recognize problem coins.
@MFeld
What percentage guesstimate of US coins up for bid at major auctions are " fresh " material?
As in never been seen before?
Or even 20+ year old material?
I think a major show auction would meet the definition of jewel.
Not buying the @WCC Stack claim of shadowy grey market cabal of collectors sending previous unknown collections into numismatic black holes.
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I worked for a dealer a while back and buying collections of raw coins wasn't unusual. The way it worked was that once the collection was bought, the coins were first offered to the business's biggest buyers. They'd make their selections and the coins would either be sold raw or sent for slabbing as the buyers preferred. Next, the remaining coins would be slabbed where it made sense to do so and then offered for sale on the business's website and at shows. After the coins had been available in those venues for a while, what was left unsold would be sent to auction.
Some takeaways:
Serious raw coin collections exist.
The best coins from those collections may never be made available for sale publicly and the sale prices remain undisclosed.
The coins from those collections that appeared at auction were seen and passed over by two rounds of buyers.
Make of that what you will.
No one's experience is fully representative, but some experiences are a lot more representative than others. That's what Harvey Stack's experience represents, presumably. He had access to collections the overwhelming majority do not.
And it isn't that the coins are sent into a "black hole" either. If it's owned in a (muti-generational) family collection, they don't necessarily see a need to have it graded. For what? It's a family heirloom.
How many are likely to be left is situation specific. Have you looked at Coin Facts estimates?
I have, extensively. Many of the estimates vary widely (at least proportionately) from the TPG population counts. Some I believe are (far) too high with others "directionally accurate". For most 20th century, it makes total sense that the actual survivors are a lot higher than the TPG counts primarily due to the price, except maybe in the "top pop" and on occasion one grade below it.
Can you give some examples of what you saw that you concurrently consider "notable"?
By "notable", anything other than the series that were mostly collected by forum members here in the 60's. The coins are moderately scarce "in grade", but I wouldn't see anything unusual in high quality key dates like 1916 SLQ or 16-D dimes. Same thing for later date capped bust coinage. The counts on those aren't low, even in higher grades.
Ultimately it will depend on the series. Several series simply had more coins put away to be discovered later.
I expect proofs have more "jewels" left than business strike coins.
Coin Photographer.
Here’s a fairly recent discovery I’ve discussed before- the unique 1878-S VAM 58 SP65 CAC Morgan Dollar which was in a single family collection for over 100 years before being auctioned raw in 2006 and identified as special
I'm sorry, but no. I do not know what sort of arrangements any of the buyers might have had regarding their purchases and I'm not going to possibly compromise them. I understand that this might make my observations seem suspect, but that's okay. Everybody is free to believe what they like, I was just offering a point of view for anyone who was willing to consider it.
Maybe there should be a market value threshold determined for a “jewel” since several have pointed out that it depends on the series. How about coins valued today at $1000 and above?