Home World & Ancient Coins Forum

How do you price your slabbed world coins especially low pop?

Many slabbed world coins - pricing data elusive.

So Cali Area - Coins & Currency

How do you price your slabbed world coins especially low pop?

Sign in to vote!
This is a public poll: others will see what you voted for.
«1

Comments

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 20, 2022 12:59PM
    Other - Explain

    In pricing this material for online store or my table at shows:

    I try to see what eBay sellers are listing the coin like at bin. Or it may be simply cost plus. For really single digit pop coins where I have the only one…..

    Pricing data for a MS66 top pop can be non/existent.

    What say ye?

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 22,665 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I do not sell coins so I am not going to respond to the poll. However, I will share my thoughts for how I evaluate such coins-

    I start with the country and denomination whether interest is on the rise or decline;

    I look the coin and whether it is quality for the grade or just so-so. Coins graded at the same level are not created equal; and

    I look at auctions but auction result are often only a measurement of the participants. One must look at the coin, venue and timing of the sale in conjunction with the strength of how the subject coins are performing. Markets are cyclical and not always easy to figure out.

    Lastly, one should have an appreciation as to how thinly traded the subject coins might be

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Other - Explain

    The one thing I absolute would not do is base it on the TPG data if the population is unlikely to be representative of the scarcity/availability. I've read this sentiment from the OP numerous times.

  • bosoxbosox Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭✭
    Other - Explain

    I have collected several Canada large cent patterns and trials with mintages between two and ten. Obviously, such thinly traded coins are tough to price. They trade only a few times per generation. In buying them, I generally ended up paying what was necessary at auction, and whatever the dealer was asking for direct buys. If I ever sold them, I would have to time the market for when I knew others were buying these coins and price them using my subjective opinion of the enthusiasm out there.

    Price catalogs, online price lists, and perhaps even prior auction results are useless for such thinly traded coins.

    Numismatic author & owner of the Uncommon Cents collections. 2011 Fred Bowman award winner, 2020 J. Douglas Ferguson award winner, & 2022 Paul Fiocca award winner.

    http://www.victoriancent.com
  • bosoxbosox Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 21, 2022 12:58AM
    Other - Explain

    Good topic. Two examples of very tough coins to price:

    1 - In 2015, I paid $4,500 US for this one. It was graded and catalogued as a regular 1876-H specimen cent, a rare coin at pop 11. It is in fact an 1876-H pattern, struck at the Royal Mint with a different obverse portrait design. There are two known, this one and one other in the Royal Mint Museum. This one is considerably finer than the museum example.

    https://coins.ha.com/itm/canada/canada-victoria-specimen-1-cent-1876-h-sp66-red-and-brown-pcgs-/a/3041-29005.s?ic2=mybidspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyBids-101116

    2 - In 2019, I paid $21K for this one. It is the finest known 1858 copper-nickel trial cent, ex Farouk, Norweb, Belzberg, and Cook. About ten are known. It sold for $2,310 in the 1996 Norweb sale, and with a $7,000 estimate failed to sell in the 2003 Belzberg Sale. It was sold to Cook for an unknown sum later.

    https://coins.ha.com/itm/canada/canada-victoria-copper-nickel-specimen-pattern-cent-1858-sp66-pcgs-/a/3075-31001.s?ic2=mybidspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyBids-101116

    I paid what was necessary to acquire these two rare pieces. If I were to honestly value them, I would say #1 is worth more than #2, based upon rarity and historical significance. If I were to sell them, absent an assessment of the market at that time I have no clue which would sell for more, or if I would get my money back on #2.

    Numismatic author & owner of the Uncommon Cents collections. 2011 Fred Bowman award winner, 2020 J. Douglas Ferguson award winner, & 2022 Paul Fiocca award winner.

    http://www.victoriancent.com
  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Other - Explain

    @bosox said:
    I have collected several Canada large cent patterns and trials with mintages between two and ten. Obviously, such thinly traded coins are tough to price. They trade only a few times per generation.

    South Africa Union (1923-1960) used to be my primary interest and I used to follow ZAR somewhat. To my knowledge, the most prominent have never sold publicly and for many of the other scarcest, there is no public sales record at all either.

    It's my assumption that whenever these coins do sell, often or mostly through private sales by a relatively small circle of collectors who know each other.

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 21, 2022 8:22AM
    Other - Explain

    Certainly slabbed low pop world coins are an exciting opportunity. They are a super deal vs US and an exciting new frontier. Low pop and especially Top pop coins worth a significant premium no doubt about it. My primary focus has been Mexico. Current catalogs are either non existent, out of date, or useless for this material (higher grades above MS60). One has to come up with their own angle so to speak. Cost plus is a good step but is it still underpriced considering it’s rarity? I say a strong yes if it’s absurd cheap vs US (especially common issues).

    I generally research what other sellers may want, auc records, or simply just do cost plus.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I’d say for those Mexican issues, cost plus may be the only way. Unless you want to hold them forever.

    But I agree with you. Based on condition rarity, they deserve much more.

  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,184 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Of course another issue is that demand for such sometimes is extremely low and therefore the price asked, let alone the price received is problematic. I have a number of such coins as well...
    One simple example was the 1984 FM PL Unc Trinidad and Tobago 50c that I have not EVER seem for sale om 38 years but bought for $3.59!

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 21, 2022 9:25AM
    Other - Explain

    @Cougar1978 said:
    Certainly slabbed low pop world coins are an exciting opportunity. They are a super deal vs US and an exciting new frontier. Low pop and especially Top pop coins worth a significant premium no doubt about it.

    Based upon what?

    I recall two specific examples in your prior posts. The last one was the 1978 100P which already has a very high TPG count for a non-US coin. It doesn't matter that it's much lower than Morgan dollars, Peace dollars, or ASE. It's still a widget even in a grade like MS-65 or MS-66. With the very large mintage, the number actually eligible for one of these grades must be a very large multiple to that recorded in both services which is hardly low now.

    The first was some late 19th or early 20th century Mexican 20c or 25c. This coin is presumably somewhat scarce at least in MS-65 (your coin), but there is still no basis to believe that the scarcity is reflected in the TPG data and it's unreasonable to believe and expect any buyer to pay the price you stated here ($2500 ask) for this supposed scarcity.

    You aren't going to sell very many world coins like this one if you are pricing it as if it were a US coin or with the US price structure (spread between grades). As I told you once before, the TPG label doesn't make the coin remotely enough interesting to any informed buyer because the series doesn't have the high collector preference inferred by your ask price. There are too many far better Mexican coins available for around the same price and any buyer has no assurance of getting most of their money back.

    I can see that you see it as an exciting opportunity to make big margins. The better question is, would you be willing to make a strong offer consistent with your ask price for this same coin if someone offered it to you? If you aren't, why would anyone buy it from you for your ask price?

  • It's hard to price marketing fluff. They're not 'worth' a premium until someone buys into that.

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 24, 2022 10:03AM
    Other - Explain

    I moved the Mexico 19th century silver 20c PCGS 65 pop 2/0 - a dealer at a show setup next to me bought it from me. I slightly discounted it but still did very well considering what it was given away at auction for. He was going to a show in another state which was going to have a big Mexico focus. He probably had a customer for it. However I am on hunt for other world gems as well and bid aggressively.

    As far as nice Mexico 19th century really tough find them on bourse. There is nothing “supposed” about the scarcity of Mexico 19th century issues lol. These coins were spent for survival not saved in mint bags in vaults.

    Compared to the high premiums in the USA sticker game will stick to what am doing.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 24, 2022 10:40AM
    Other - Explain

    @JohnConduitt said:
    It's hard to price marketing fluff. They're not 'worth' a premium until someone buys into that.

    I hope they do keep thinking that lol (in a way). Love picking up nice world graded material…..

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Mexico Republic 20c series is short and easy to complete. There is only one (major) rarity in UNC.

    I’m surprised there aren’t more collectors of that series, especially since prices are so low.

  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 1,172 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Other - Explain

    Most world coins are low pop in my opinion. I usually check auction records and for any examples currently for sale. I never do cost plus. I'll take a loss if that's all the market will bear and will do better the next time.

    IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
    "Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 24, 2022 11:46AM
    Other - Explain

    What somebody gave away a coin or banknote at auction for (especially in the world arena) usually means not much of anything to me in terms of retail pricing. I research pop, what another seller may have it for (if one even has this) so may do cost plus or some other number in analysis of its rarity. Selling at loss not in my playbook.

    One auc house after I ran the table on them getting some really super pickups (world) I noticed next time they ramped up the opening bids on that stuff (seller complaints?).

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 24, 2022 11:59AM
    Other - Explain

    Yes in Mexico early 20th century 20c series was outbid on the 1930 key date in Pcgs 64 even having put in a strong nuclear bid (multiples of current bid).

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Auction Records

    I own a mint state beauty unbelievable toning NGC 65. I think its 1904

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 25, 2022 8:16AM
    Other - Explain

    @Cougar1978 said:

    As far as nice Mexico 19th century really tough find them on bourse. There is nothing “supposed” about the scarcity of Mexico 19th century issues lol. These coins were spent for survival not saved in mint bags in vaults.

    The reason I provided the reply I did is because first, you have ignored the NGC populations in every post you have commented on this subject. This makes no sense, especially since NGC has graded a lot more of these coins than PCGS and the NGC "top pop" may be higher (and occasionally is) than the PCGS one. You may ignore NCG graded coins and act as it doesn't exit, but any potential buyer won't.

    Second, you also write as if the TPG data is complete or near it. There is no basis for such an inference either, as it's only with a few countries (China, South Africa, Canada) where either the local collectors or the primary collectors (if elsewhere) have a TPG preference. With Mexico and Latin coinage generally, it's predominantly the type of collector who participates here with this preference, not necessarily anyone else. In the coins I primarily collect, most of the better ones are not in a TPG holder. This includes the Sellschopp, Patterson, and Ortiz collections. These coins are a lot scarcer than this Mexican 20c. It's not even close.

    If you are even interested in getting an accurate idea, compare it to potential comparables where there is a demonstrated TPG preference. For the Mexican 20c, it's probably Barber quarters and later dated Seated quarters. Another is maybe some of the South Africa ZAR denominations, like the shilling struck from 1892-1897.

    Going by the mintage data and the current populations, I'd guess Mexican 20c is scarcer than all but the scarcer dates but it's not anywhere near as scarce as you think. None of these coins are rare or even scarce except "in grade", like the 1893 ZAR shilling. Also compare it to the TPG counts for much earlier Mexican coinage. There is no reason to believe it's anywhere near as scarce either.

    Comparing it to Morgan dollars which is available by the bag is an irrelevant comparison. It's also irrelevant what you can or cannot find at a coin show, as this says nothing about the scarcity since your personal experience isn't representative any more than any other individual.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 25, 2022 7:29AM
    Other - Explain

    @pruebas said:
    The Mexico Republic 20c series is short and easy to complete. There is only one (major) rarity in UNC.

    I’m surprised there aren’t more collectors of that series, especially since prices are so low.

    But the prices aren't that low, compared to other Mexican coinage.

    In responding to the OP, I attempted to identify which coin he had since he didn't mention the date. I narrowed it down to one of a few. I also looked at the Heritage and Stacks archives. In grades of MS-64 or MS-65, this coinage is not cheap versus available dates from comparable denomination (2R) Cap & Ray or even some of the colonial coinage, though the latter might be one or two grades lower, which doesn't make any difference to most collectors. Prices seem to be mostly around $500 with some between $500 to $1000.

    I don't consider this cheap, considering the relative preference which is low. The only reason I think it sells for current prices is the one you gave. It's the only Mexican series around this time period which a decent number of collectors can reasonably expect to complete.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Other - Explain

    @Cougar1978 said:
    What somebody gave away a coin or banknote at auction for (especially in the world arena) usually means not much of anything to me in terms of retail pricing. I research pop, what another seller may have it for (if one even has this) so may do cost plus or some other number in analysis of its rarity. Selling at loss not in my playbook.

    One auc house after I ran the table on them getting some really super pickups (world) I noticed next time they ramped up the opening bids on that stuff (seller complaints?).

    What's your definition of "giving away"?

    There is no established pricing for most world coins and the price can be unpredictable from one sale to the next. If your inference in that one sale is correct, it potentially means the buyer overpaid, not that the coins are such great bargains. It's situation specific.

    I've been collecting pillar coinage as my primary interest for over 10 years and 20 years overall and I can't tell you what it is "worth" much of the time. I still have a better idea than most dealers, never mind other collectors.

    I see world coins offered at all kinds of fantasy ask prices and it's not just on eBay. I don't know how much the coins sold for unless I later see it at auction, but if it's at anywhere near the ask, the buyer is going to be hopelessly buried, unless they can find an even greater fool to take it off their hands.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 25, 2022 8:01AM
    Other - Explain

    @neildrobertson said:
    Most world coins are low pop in my opinion. I usually check auction records and for any examples currently for sale. I never do cost plus. I'll take a loss if that's all the market will bear and will do better the next time.

    You are correct on the pop counts but it's predominantly due to a low TPG preference by those who collect it, not the actual scarcity. This is partly an inference and not entirely fact, but most European coinage has low pops and it's not hard to find. I'd guesstimate most of it dated after 1775 is common even in better grades, unless the mintage is really low.

    Outside of Europe, there wasn't and usually still isn't much local collecting, the mintages may have been or were low, and weren't saved due to limited travel and communication.

    To get an idea of the populations, the best indication is to look at the countries with an existing demonstrated TPG preference. South Africa is one I know well since it used to be my primary interest. Most of the populations are low by US standards but few of the coins are rare or scarce, except in some TPG grade. Due to this TPG preference, the populations are far more "mature" there than practically any other country's coinage, even though it's not possible to know how many more are out there.

  • 7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,184 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I agree and find that populations such as published by the TPGs can be very misleading, and there are coins that IMHO are over- or underreported. Also, in case of rarities the type is sometimes missed - this is especially in pseudo-moderns such as coins from the 1950s-1970s....I have frequently benefitted by such cherrypicking.
    Pricing, well, that is a difficult issue that is sometimes and sometimes not related to scarcity with demand being key.

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 1,172 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Other - Explain

    I price seldom seen coins based on similar coins that the same type of collector would want. If there is not information available for a particular date, can I look for prices of other dates with a comparable rarity?

    When I look at German States coins, I put price ranges on different coins of similar type. Minor silver coins and copper coins tend to have price ceilings. There is generally a maximum someone will pay for a German copper coin unless the coin is exceptional in one way or another.

    Part of this is thinking about potential buyers and the reasoning for buying it. Would this function as a type piece? Then compare it to others of the type.

    The avenue of sale also affects the buyer and price. Is this going on ebay, or with a specialist dealer that has established customers of certain types of material? Depending on how I answer those questions, the best outcome could be pursuing a consignment with a specialist rather than pricing/selling yourself outright.

    IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
    "Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Auction Records

    @bidask said:
    I own a mint state beauty unbelievable toning NGC 65. I think its 1904

    It’s a 1902 wonderful toning …top pop !


    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 26, 2022 4:35PM
    Other - Explain

    Both My graded and raw world material both coins and currency do very well for me online and at shows. They are a super deal vs US especially generic $ available by the tens of thousands or more. For someone to say there are much more out there for single digit / double digit Classic era or older world coins thats such a tire kicker absurdity lol. Especially Mexico 2nd Republic! The TPG’s have had decades to slab these. I can’t even find any raw decent ones send in to our hosts!

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 26, 2022 4:46PM
    Other - Explain

    For pricing (graded world coins and currency) one can use cost plus or simply keystone markup (mentioned in Bowers Book). Or research what online sellers have their similar material for. For single digit top pop One guy I know uses the price of what a pro sports ticket would cost or gentleman’s club vip visit. People have paid much more premium for stickered Classic us coins. Recently saw where last World Series tickets $600 - $1000 plus and thought my gosh they have paid more for the sticker (stickered coin) than that. If you price too high you can let them talk you down a little lol. If some know it all tries badger you about the price just ask them “do you have one sell me at that?”

    Yes prices can be low on world material but to me it’s an opportunity vs being high buyer in the sticker thing. I have had both auction pickups and super purchases off the bourse I acquired.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:

    @bidask said:
    I own a mint state beauty unbelievable toning NGC 65. I think its 1904

    It’s a 1902 wonderful toning …top pop !


    That is an ex-Novotny coin.

  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Cougar1978 said:
    For pricing (graded world coins and currency) one can use cost plus or simply keystone markup (mentioned in Bowers Book). Or research what online sellers have their similar material for. For single digit top pop One guy I know uses the price of what a pro sports ticket would cost or gentleman’s club vip visit. People have paid much more premium for stickered Classic us coins. Recently saw where last World Series tickets $600 - $1000 plus and thought my gosh they have paid more for the sticker (stickered coin) than that. If you price too high you can let them talk you down a little lol. If some know it all tries badger you about the price just ask them “do you have one sell me at that?”

    Yes prices can be low on world material but to me it’s an opportunity vs being high buyer in the sticker thing. I have had both auction pickups and super purchases off the bourse I acquired.

    I think your concepts are sound, but you clearly have a lot more to learn about the Mexican coin market.

    But if you can profit from your current method, more power to you.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Auction Records

    @pruebas said:

    @bidask said:

    @bidask said:
    I own a mint state beauty unbelievable toning NGC 65. I think its 1904

    It’s a 1902 wonderful toning …top pop !


    That is an ex-Novotny coin.

    Great you recognize the provenance .
    How do you know that ?
    I bought this coin several years ago mexican coin company at the time .

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:

    @pruebas said:

    @bidask said:

    @bidask said:
    I own a mint state beauty unbelievable toning NGC 65. I think its 1904

    It’s a 1902 wonderful toning …top pop !


    That is an ex-Novotny coin.

    Great you recognize the provenance .
    How do you know that ?
    I bought this coin several years ago mexican coin company at the time .

    I recognized the slab number.

    https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-20M6Z/mexico-mexico-city-20-centavos-1902-mom

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,831 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Auction records are the best source of data for valuing most coins, assuming the comps exist and you interpret them correctly.

    "Relative value" is also important, especially when there aren't many useful auction records. Of course, using relative value to estimate the value of a coin requires some knowledge of the market for other coins. And the more you know about the more types of coins, the more effectively you can determine relative value.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 27, 2022 9:39AM
    Other - Explain

    I sell a lot of it cost plus - minimal markup. No telling what I may have given away. I like move stuff quickly.

    In terms of the Mexican market 19th century tough to find in nice mint state, and one can expect a bid war. There will be heavy bidding competition.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
  • Other - Explain

    I had written a short text on the 15 sols 1792 R Orléans mint, presenting this coin as quite rare to find in the state of conservation where I had it in AU55 at PCGS, supporting photos for more more other coins found and listed and much more circulated.

    https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1081842/15-sols-francois-1792-r-pour-orleans/p1?new=1

    No other has been graded, either at PCGS or NGC.

    https://www.pcgseurope.com/popdetail/3634/tab5?l=fr&ccid=0&pn=1
    https://www.ngccoin.com/census/world/france-1715-1793/sc-118/15s/

    The mintage of this coin is probably less than 100,000.

    Another coin, very common to find, the 4 sols aux 2 L struck at the Rennes mint (9), but like the previous coin, these coins have circulated a lot and few are well preserved, for a mintage of 4,380 699.

    https://www.pcgseurope.com/popdetail/3513/tab5?l=fr&ccid=0&pn=1
    https://www.ngccoin.com/census/world/france-1643-1715/sc-117/4s-2d/

    The coin is graded MS61 at PCGS and none is graded at NGC above AU58 for this type whatever the mint.

    How to evaluate this type of coins?

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Auction Records

    @rhubarbe said:
    I had written a short text on the 15 sols 1792 R Orléans mint, presenting this coin as quite rare to find in the state of conservation where I had it in AU55 at PCGS, supporting photos for more more other coins found and listed and much more circulated.

    https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1081842/15-sols-francois-1792-r-pour-orleans/p1?new=1

    No other has been graded, either at PCGS or NGC.

    https://www.pcgseurope.com/popdetail/3634/tab5?l=fr&ccid=0&pn=1
    https://www.ngccoin.com/census/world/france-1715-1793/sc-118/15s/

    The mintage of this coin is probably less than 100,000.

    Another coin, very common to find, the 4 sols aux 2 L struck at the Rennes mint (9), but like the previous coin, these coins have circulated a lot and few are well preserved, for a mintage of 4,380 699.

    https://www.pcgseurope.com/popdetail/3513/tab5?l=fr&ccid=0&pn=1
    https://www.ngccoin.com/census/world/france-1643-1715/sc-117/4s-2d/

    The coin is graded MS61 at PCGS and none is graded at NGC above AU58 for this type whatever the mint.

    How to evaluate this type of coins?

    I think you evaluated this coin pretty well .

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Auction Records

    There is a community member here who has posted a similar question except he collects moderns. And they are not necessarily silver either .

    In the past he has given all kinds of reasons to buy these coins and provided examples of low pop moderns he owns that are for sale .

    So whether it’s more low pop classic
    ( older coins) or modern coins the same question has been asked on these boards
    seems like many times .

    It’s my opinion that pricing of any coin has much to do with demand.

    Sometimes demand can be quirky at a particular auction and a coin can be bought at what seems a decent price or bid up .

    I personally prefer collecting classic crowns of the world . Classic crowns are very fun to collect and seem to be collected by world coin collectors all over the world . Just my sense .

    When I began focusing on the crowns of the mexican cap & rays 8 reales type
    ( 1823 -1897) in earnest, it was because I realized there seemed to be specific demand for these coins from China forever since these coins were used for their main currency for decades .

    1) they are crown size silver classic coins
    2) they were issued from historical mints
    3) they were heavily circulated not only in Mexico but the United States as well as China

    So I especially liked the demand for these crowns.

    The demand wanes and waxes so to speak and that is mostly due to economic conditions where these coins circulated or where they are collected,imo.

    I tend to be a long term collector for most of the coins I buy and I can be patient and try to be opportunistic when purchasing and when i sometimes sell.

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:
    There is a community member here who has posted a similar question except he collects moderns. And they are not necessarily silver either .

    In the past he has given all kinds of reasons to buy these coins and provided examples of low pop moderns he owns that are for sale .

    So whether it’s more low pop classic
    ( older coins) or modern coins the same question has been asked on these boards
    seems like many times .

    It’s my opinion that pricing of any coin has much to do with demand.

    Sometimes demand can be quirky at a particular auction and a coin can be bought at what seems a decent price or bid up .

    I personally prefer collecting classic crowns of the world . Classic crowns are very fun to collect and seem to be collected by world coin collectors all over the world . Just my sense .

    When I began focusing on the crowns of the mexican cap & rays 8 reales type
    ( 1823 -1897) in earnest, it was because I realized there seemed to be specific demand for these coins from China forever since these coins were used for their main currency for decades .

    1) they are crown size silver classic coins
    2) they were issued from historical mints
    3) they were heavily circulated not only in Mexico but the United States as well as China

    So I especially liked the demand for these crowns.

    The demand wanes and waxes so to speak and that is mostly due to economic conditions where these coins circulated or where they are collected,imo.

    I tend to be a long term collector for most of the coins I buy and I can be patient and try to be opportunistic when purchasing and when i sometimes sell.

    @bidask it’s nice to hear your comments for a change instead of just your usual one-liners. Keep it coming.

    Two comments.

    Does this mean you are really a coin investor? Otherwise, why care about China demand?

    Second, I doubt 8Rs were “heavily” circulated anywhere. Think about our silver dollars. Sure they were used a bit, but they never circulated heavily due to their size and weight. Why do you think so many Morgan S$ and Resplandores are available in some level of UNC?

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Auction Records

    @bidask it’s nice to hear your comments for a change instead of just your usual one-liners. Keep it coming.

    Two comments.

    You asked "Does this mean you are really a coin investor? Otherwise, why care about China demand?"

    I have much money ( for me) "invested" in coins ........that said this a fun HOBBY for me and always has been.
    Sure I would like to make some profit when I resell a coin but in the end it does not really matter.
    Why? I do not count on this hobby to produce income for me to live on.

    You said "Second, I doubt 8Rs were “heavily” circulated anywhere. Think about our silver dollars. Sure they were used a bit, but they never circulated heavily due to their size and weight. Why do you think so many Morgan S$ and Resplandores are available in some level of UNC?"

    So it sounds like you think Replandores are as available in unc as Morgan dollars ...
    Pruebas you once stated that bags of unopened Respandores are in China......I guess you still believe this based on your comment above

    I wanted a large market for my focus on this series (cap and rays 8 reales) and china demand expands that market demand.....so I did just that cause i knew there would always be some demand from other collectors where these coins circulated.

    In the foreward of his book Resplandores Mike Dunnigan states and i quote ..."Minted in enormous quantities
    the cap and rays 8 reales became the dominant worldwide medium of commerce throughout the 19th and 20th century.
    The Mexican Dollar as it was known, was unrivaled in its international acceptance.

    He further states the cap and rays that in addition to the orient this coin circulated extensively in India, European countries such as England, France, and Holland...( these countries) had a urgent need for these coins to support trade their Oriental trade. He further states other these coins traded as currency in the US ( alongside pillar and bust 8 reales) until 1857.
    ( but you know that !) :)

    He further states that since the earliest days of spanish rule silver had been Mexico's largest export. ...under mexican law it was illegal to export silver or gold bullion ...Therefore all silver destined for export had to be coined .......

    The fact that silver was the largest export from mexico kinda says it all as to where they shipped their coinage....
    (as in all over the world)....so presumably more demand for this series from collectors around the world especially china.

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:
    @bidask it’s nice to hear your comments for a change instead of just your usual one-liners. Keep it coming.

    Two comments.

    You asked "Does this mean you are really a coin investor? Otherwise, why care about China demand?"

    I have much money ( for me) "invested" in coins ........that said this a fun HOBBY for me and always has been.
    Sure I would like to make some profit when I resell a coin but in the end it does not really matter.
    Why? I do not count on this hobby to produce income for me to live on.

    You said "Second, I doubt 8Rs were “heavily” circulated anywhere. Think about our silver dollars. Sure they were used a bit, but they never circulated heavily due to their size and weight. Why do you think so many Morgan S$ and Resplandores are available in some level of UNC?"

    So it sounds like you think Replandores are as available in unc as Morgan dollars ...
    Pruebas you once stated that bags of unopened Respandores are in China......I guess you still believe this based on your comment above

    I wanted a large market for my focus on this series (cap and rays 8 reales) and china demand expands that market demand.....so I did just that cause i knew there would always be some demand from other collectors where these coins circulated.

    In the foreward of his book Resplandores Mike Dunnigan states and i quote ..."Minted in enormous quantities
    the cap and rays 8 reales became the dominant worldwide medium of commerce throughout the 19th and 20th century.
    The Mexican Dollar as it was known, was unrivaled in its international acceptance.

    He further states the cap and rays that in addition to the orient this coin circulated extensively in India, European countries such as England, France, and Holland...( these countries) had a urgent need for these coins to support trade their Oriental trade. He further states other these coins traded as currency in the US ( alongside pillar and bust 8 reales) until 1857.
    ( but you know that !) :)

    He further states that since the earliest days of spanish rule silver had been Mexico's largest export. ...under mexican law it was illegal to export silver or gold bullion ...Therefore all silver destined for export had to be coined .......

    The fact that silver was the largest export from mexico kinda says it all as to where they shipped their coinage....
    (as in all over the world)....so presumably more demand for this series from collectors around the world especially china.

    Great comments, @bidask!

    (And we should probably start a new thread rather than highjacking this one.)

    I feel similarly to you: I collect for fun and diversion, but would like to at least break even on a non-inflation basis when I go to sell. Any profit is just icing on the cake.

    To me, the China (or elsewhere) demand just makes it harder for me to buy, hence it is a net negative, since it makes my investment in fun that much more. I know there will always be demand for Mexican coins, just as there always has been before China joined the world stage (circa 1970s).

    I don’t disagree with anything Dunigan states. But when he says “circulation” he means traded in bags rather than in people’s pockets. In the days before wire transfers and other forms of money exchange, you needed a ship full of silver in order to buy your Chinese porcelains (or whatever) and you needed them right then and there. So circulation means traded in bags or large quantities. Coins generally don’t get worn down to VF while in bags.

    Yes, I have heard that there are huge quantities of 8 Reales still in Chinese bank vaults. (I never said they were unopened.) Why do you have reason to doubt this?

    If China amassed such a huge quantity of 8 Reales over the course of a century of trading with the West, how would you expect them to ever dispose of them all? Yes, many hundreds of thousands were repatriated in the 1980s, but that was the tip of the iceberg.

  • JohnnyCacheJohnnyCache Posts: 1,654 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pruebas said:

    @bidask said:

    If China amassed such a huge quantity of 8 Reales over the course of a century of trading with the West, how would you expect them to ever dispose of them all? Yes, many hundreds of thousands were repatriated in the 1980s, but that was the tip of the iceberg.

    Could some of those bags of Reales been recycled into Panda's or other coinage in China?

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 6, 2023 2:31PM
    Other - Explain

    @Cougar1978 said:
    For someone to say there are much more out there for single digit / double digit Classic era or older world coins thats such a tire kicker absurdity lol. Especially Mexico 2nd Republic! The TPG’s have had decades to slab these. I can’t even find any raw decent ones send in to our hosts!

    I already told you your personal experience is not representative and that's a fact. Why would you think it is? I state this since it is obvious you are challenging those who disagree with you (especially my posts) even as you didn't try to refute any of these claims.

    The primary reason the TPG populations are so low on most world coinage isn't because it's representative of the actual scarcity, but because few are motivated to submit it. It doesn't matter than the TPG have been grading for decades. You're making the same unsubstantiated claims I used to hear from South African collectors, regularly.

    Below is a list I previously compiled, somewhat dated now. Some of these are hoard coins but how many have you seen that aren't already in a TPG holder?

    Let me guess? The answer is probably zero, isn't it?

    1853 Bolivia 1/4 sol 7 MS
    Rhodesia 1977 1/2C 13 (nine MS)
    Sarawak 1941H cent circulation strike 46 (37 MS)
    Spain 1726M Real 28 MS (2 MS-68, 7 MS-67 and 9 MS-66)
    Mexico 1751 1/2 Real 31 MS
    Mexico 1861 MoCH 2R 175 MS (26 PL, 10 MS-67 and 53 MS-66)
    1712 Peru 8E 37 MS,
    1774 Bolivia 8R 91 MS (MS-66 top grade),
    No date (1542-1555) Mexico 4R 52 MS (up to MS-64); Many more in AU-55 or AU-58
    1754 Mexico 8R 566 MS;
    First Jewish Revolt shekel 66-70CE 42 MS + 139 AU.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:
    The primary reason the TPG populations are so low on most world coinage isn't because it's representative of the actual scarcity, but because few are motivated to submit it.

    Yep. Many of those who specialize in Mexico 2nd Republic will buy coins they need as they find them- raw or slabbed- and will keep them as they bought them. Not everybody feels the need to have their coins slabbed.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Auction Records

    @MasonG said:

    @WCC said:
    The primary reason the TPG populations are so low on most world coinage isn't because it's representative of the actual scarcity, but because few are motivated to submit it.

    Yep. Many of those who specialize in Mexico 2nd Republic will buy coins they need as they find them- raw or slabbed- and will keep them as they bought them. Not everybody feels the need to have their coins slabbed.

    I have seen very very few raw gems out there as being discussed.

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:

    @MasonG said:

    @WCC said:
    The primary reason the TPG populations are so low on most world coinage isn't because it's representative of the actual scarcity, but because few are motivated to submit it.

    Yep. Many of those who specialize in Mexico 2nd Republic will buy coins they need as they find them- raw or slabbed- and will keep them as they bought them. Not everybody feels the need to have their coins slabbed.

    I have seen very very few raw gems out there as being discussed.

    Ok.

  • bosoxbosox Posts: 1,500 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 6, 2023 9:27PM
    Other - Explain

    You just never know. Not Mexico, I know, but a friend of mine once bought this coin in a 2x2. The finest known Canada Edward VII twenty-five cents of any date. Now PCGS MS-68. Blows your socks off in hand.

    Numismatic author & owner of the Uncommon Cents collections. 2011 Fred Bowman award winner, 2020 J. Douglas Ferguson award winner, & 2022 Paul Fiocca award winner.

    http://www.victoriancent.com
  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bosox said:
    You just never know. Not Mexico, I know, but a friend of mine once bought this coin in a 2x2. The finest known Canada Edward VII twenty-five cents of any date. Now PCGS MS-68. Blows your socks off in hand.

    And that's the thing- you just never know. World coin collectors are not nearly as wedded to the idea of slabbing their coins as US collectors are. Heck, I won't slab my raw ones until I decide to sell and it would make sense to.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,813 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Auction Records

    I should clarify that I used to find raw gems but not so much now

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 10, 2023 2:41PM
    Other - Explain

    @MasonG said:

    @WCC said:
    The primary reason the TPG populations are so low on most world coinage isn't because it's representative of the actual scarcity, but because few are motivated to submit it.

    Yep. Many of those who specialize in Mexico 2nd Republic will buy coins they need as they find them- raw or slabbed- and will keep them as they bought them. Not everybody feels the need to have their coins slabbed.

    The common belief that the supply any individual sees is representative is virtually never accurate, unless the coin is known to be common or very common. I've heard this claim repeatedly over the years.

    First, for comparison purposes, below is a summary for South Africa ZAR shillings: same time period, roughly same size and metal composition, and mintages which are both somewhat higher and lower. It’s an example of the potential supply when a concerted effort is made to locate it. The data below is MS but every one of these coins have several hundred (minimum) graded. The 1893 has 108 "details" coins and 159 numerically graded at NGC. It's also an expensive coin in MS (4 or 5 digit price), so it's obvious the coin is hard to find in better grades.

    1892 146 MS, 19 MS-64, 5 MS-65, 1 MS-66
    1893 4 MS, top pop is an MS-63
    1894 33 MS, 4 MS-64, 1 MS-65
    1895 12 MS, top pop (1/0) is an MS-64
    1896 18 MS, 4 tied for MS-63
    1897 417 MS, 67 MS-64, 15 MS-65

    Next is the actual data for the 20C the OP presumably owned. There are only three date/MM combinations as a PCGS 65 2/0.

    1899 ZS: 18 MS, 64-4, 65-3, 66-3
    1900 Mo: 32 MS, 64-14, 65-7, 66-1 (both varieties)
    1904 Mo: 18 MS, 64-6, 65-7

    Given the preference for grading both series and the price difference, it doesn't take a leap to conclude that the supply is almost certainly noticeably larger. Most of the other dates have lower counts (all are low) but there is no way to know how much of it is due to an actual scarcity versus TPG preference.

    Given what I know about collector behavior and other coinage, there is every reason to believe it's a lot more common than indicated by the TPG data. That's it's a lot scarcer than some common US coin with millions (presumably Morgan dollars) is irrelevant.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Other - Explain

    @bidask said:
    I should clarify that I used to find raw gems but not so much now

    Most coins are in collections, not in some dealer's inventory. I infer you know this. This is the primary reason there should be limited to no expectation of finding even semi-scarce coins (especially of moderate to low value like this one) at a coin show.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:
    Most coins are in collections, not in some dealer's inventory. I infer you know this. This is the primary reason there should be limited to no expectation of finding even semi-scarce coins (especially of moderate to low value like this one) at a coin show.

    The true gems don't generally show up in a dealer's inventory or at a show after they buy a collection. Established dealers tend to know who the buyer/collectors are in their specialty and those gems go directly into one of those collections without ever being made publicly available.

Sign In or Register to comment.