Bullion silver eagle sales US Mint: This data does not count numismatic eagle sales.
2018 15.7 million ounces (ATB 5-ounce pucks available as alternatives)
2019 14.86 million ounces (ATB's available)
2020 30.09 million ounces- huge demand, silver opened year at $18.05 hit a high of $29.26 on speculation Reddit etc.
2021 28.275 million eagles (new eagle design became available and Morgans came out as other alternatives for silver)
2022 to date (incl. Oct.) only 14.5 million US silver eagle bullion ounces available. Supply down half, premiums increase to double to compensate. Planchet availability limited. No ATB puck options or Morgans either in 2022. The US Mint silver production way down all things considered.
A very complicated set of events with silver the past few years. I don't understand all the factors, so just stack a little every year.
@jmski52 said:
The only real demand numbers for ASEs would have to be obtained from the major dealers, and remarks by some of those dealers at a recent conference have already been provided in this thread, in addition to the remarks that Bill Holter has already made in several blog posts. Scroll up.
Just a few quotes above you state this same outlet is out of ASE, now you show them as offering ASE for sale. Perhaps if your comments were not so hypocritical we would accept your views, hyperbole, narrative and rhetoric.
Perhaps you should check with Apmex and ask them about their situation. Maybe they got a recent shipment that allowed them to put more ASEs up for sale. Or, is that too far of a stretch for you?
Maybe you should call them. I'm not promoting the idea of huge demand, you are. So the burden of proof is on you.
@jmski52 said: Maybe you should call them. I'm not promoting the idea of huge demand, you are. So the burden of proof is on you.
Actually, you are the one doubting what Apmex has posted on their website. Therefore, the onus is on you to do the proving.
I'm not doubting what they posted.
I'm questioning the narrative of increased demand for ASE. And no one has yet proven demand is the reason for the premium. All evidence points to lack of supply.
Lack of supply is not the same as strong demand. Even someone with an MBA should know the difference.
I'm questioning the narrative of increased demand for ASE. And no one has yet proven demand is the reason for the premium. All evidence points to lack of supply.
Lack of supply is not the same as strong demand. Even someone with an MBA should know the difference.
Hey, if major dealers are talking about high demand, I would expect you to provide some sort of proof otherwise. Believe what you want. Premiums wouldn't be as high as they are if there was lackluster demand. You don't need an MBA to understand that.
If there weren't high demand, the Mint would be completely sold out of ASEs and the prices would be the same as when the Mint was pumpiing out twice as many. There would be no motivation on the part of buyers to pay a premium. But that is not the case. Buyers are paying up to a 90% premium, whether you and blitzie think so or not.
My most recent box of silver was 1 oz .999 Buffalo rounds. I couldn't justify the high premium for ASEs, and that was over a year ago - before the Mint cut back on production of ASEs. The dealer I bought from told me then, that demand for ASEs was making it hard to find them in quantity. That wasn't because supplies were short. It was because demand was high.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
The dealer I bought from told me then, that demand for ASEs was making it ****hard to find them in quantity****. That wasn't because supplies were short. It was because demand was high.
See the print between the ****? These are your words. And you followed it up with "because supplies were short".
YOU JUST SAID SUPPLY WAS THE ISSUE!!!!
Edit--and you said "the Mint cut back on production". THATS A SUPPLY ISSUE!!!
@jmski52 said:
The dealer I bought from told me then, that demand for ASEs was making it ****hard to find them in quantity****. That wasn't because supplies were short. It was because demand was high.
See the print between the ****? These are your words. And you followed it up with "because supplies were short".
YOU JUST SAID SUPPLY WAS THE ISSUE!!!!
Edit--and you said "the Mint cut back on production". THATS A SUPPLY ISSUE!!!
So why were ASE premiums going through the roof before the mint cut back production? Also note the mint is cutting back production because of a shortage of coin blanks from their contractor. There is not a shortage of raw silver, coming out of the ground every day. There is a hungry market eating up what is produced from all that raw silver. Believe what you want but it is a demand issue. It is only a supply issue in the sense that all of the demand is soaking up the supply. So yes, as with anything else, record demand is creating a supply problem.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
@jmski52 said:
The dealer I bought from told me then, that demand for ASEs was making it ****hard to find them in quantity****. That wasn't because supplies were short. It was because demand was high.
See the print between the ****? These are your words. And you followed it up with "because supplies were short".
YOU JUST SAID SUPPLY WAS THE ISSUE!!!!
Edit--and you said "the Mint cut back on production". THATS A SUPPLY ISSUE!!!
Does MBA stand for Master Bull**** Artist?
I think it's important to archive your response to show how you proceed to twist what I said. Anyone who is interested can read my comment and then examine your response. You twist and take things out of context way too much and way too often. No point in debating it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
So yes, as with anything else, record demand is creating a supply problem.
So far you have only successfully proved restricted supply. The mint has produced fewer ASEs, thus supply constraint. You have not proven "record demand".
So far you have only successfully proved restricted supply. The mint has produced fewer ASEs, thus supply constraint. You have not proven "record demand".
Premiums, grasshopper, premiums.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
So yes, as with anything else, record demand is creating a supply problem.
So far you have only successfully proved restricted supply. The mint has produced fewer ASEs, thus supply constraint. You have not proven "record demand".
Is supply limited, or has demand increased ?
American Silver Eagles only make up a relatively small portion of the overall silver market.
So using them as a basis for evaluating the entire silver market is erroneous.
Why has the US Mint produced fewer 2022 Silver Eagles ?
2022 silver production from mines is up.
Production capacity for silver blanks and Silver Eagles has not decreased.
Supply is being diverted to other products. For example, Sunshine Mining/Minting can produce and sell their own silver products at a higher profit margin than providing Silver Blanks to the US Mint.
So if the world-wide supply of silver has not decreased, and production capacity for retail silver products has not declined, then high premiums on all retail silver products indicate increased demand for them.
I am NOT smart enough to contribute to this discussion. However, I do have a question. This is a serious question, not snark.
The discussion about supply seems to be focused on 2022, and current conditions. That said, wouldn't the total available supply of ASE also include prior years, not just 2022?
From what I can tell, ALL of the available ASE are selling at a premium.
For example, right now at APMEX for a single BU coin via check:
wouldn't the total available supply of ASE also include prior years, not just 2022?
Yes!
That is also my contention when talking about ASE premiums and ASE supply. Although the Mint has significantly tapered back this year, this year's production makes but a small impact on the total supply of ASEs. Therefore, supply is not the issue.
That small fraction of total supply would never explain a 90% to 100% premium, and besides - the premiums have been very high now for several years, long before the Mint decided to curtail production.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The discussion about supply seems to be focused on 2022, and current conditions. That said, wouldn't the total available supply of ASE also include prior years, not just 2022?
From what I can tell, ALL of the available ASE are selling at a premium.
While extreme premiums affect all ASEs, current demand is not being met by current production. This has driven premiums for all ASEs. A bullion ASE is a bullion ASE regardless of year.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
While extreme premiums affect all ASEs, current demand is not being met by current production. This has driven premiums for all ASEs. A bullion ASE is a bullion ASE regardless of year.
The discussion about supply seems to be focused on 2022, and current conditions. That said, wouldn't the total available supply of ASE also include prior years, not just 2022?
From what I can tell, ALL of the available ASE are selling at a premium.
While extreme premiums affect all ASEs, current demand is not being met by current production. This has driven premiums for all ASEs. A bullion ASE is a bullion ASE regardless of year.
I can think of at least 2 years that disagree with you. I've had several doomsayers trade me 1 roll for 2 of theirs due to the multimillion minted rare "key dates". LOL, you can't make this stuff up. #WTJ RGDS!
While extreme premiums affect all ASEs, current demand is not being met by current production. This has driven premiums for all ASEs. A bullion ASE is a bullion ASE regardless of year.
I can think of at least 2 years that disagree with you. I've had several doomsayers trade me 1 roll for 2 of theirs due to the multimillion minted rare "key dates". LOL, you can't make this stuff up. #WTJ RGDS!
Anyone who would pay extra for a 1996 bullion ASE because they think a mintage of 3,608,886 could possible make the coin a "key date" should probably not be buying silver eagles.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
While extreme premiums affect all ASEs, current demand is not being met by current production. This has driven premiums for all ASEs. A bullion ASE is a bullion ASE regardless of year.
I can think of at least 2 years that disagree with you. I've had several doomsayers trade me 1 roll for 2 of theirs due to the multimillion minted rare "key dates". LOL, you can't make this stuff up. #WTJ RGDS!
Anyone who would pay extra for a 1996 bullion ASE because they think a mintage of 3,608,886 could possible make the coin a "key date" should probably not be buying silver eagles.
I completely agree but I've had multiple dealers do it.
So yes, as with anything else, record demand is creating a supply problem.
So far you have only successfully proved restricted supply. The mint has produced fewer ASEs, thus supply constraint. You have not proven "record demand".
Is supply limited, or has demand increased ?
American Silver Eagles only make up a relatively small portion of the overall silver market.
So using them as a basis for evaluating the entire silver market is erroneous.
Exactly. And that's what we've been trying to tell deeryb since the beginning of this thread when he claimed the premiums on ASEs vs spot was indicative of huge silver demand.
That small fraction of total supply would never explain a 90% to 100% premium, and besides - the premiums have been very high now for several years, long before the Mint decided to curtail production.
Sure it would, and happens in many markets, especially commodity markets. Look at oil, or copper, or even grains. Commodities often have inelastic demand pricing. A 10% increase in demand can easily equate to a 100% price increase, especially when supply is constrained.
@dcarr said:
... then high premiums on all retail silver products indicate increased demand for them.
And that's exactly what Ive said.
I don't think you did. Where did you "say" (write) that high premiums are due to high demand ?
Everything you wrote seems to be along the lines of this statement of yours:
"I'm not promoting the idea of huge demand ..."
I said when all other types of silver carry high premiums, then you will have showed demand for silver.
Some on here have said that if ASEs have high premium then that shows high demand, and that simply isn't true. It only shows demand exceeding supply for ASEs.
And only after spot has dropped over $10 in the last 18 months have we finally seen increased premium on other silver products.
It took a drop of over 30% in spot to increased premiums in other junk. That ain't a symptom of excessive supply.
It took a drop of over 30% in spot to increased premiums in other junk. That ain't a symptom of excessive supply.
Since you probably didn't bother to glance at the link that derryb provided, I'll post some of it here:
Silver demand is on pace to hit record levels in 2022, driven by new highs for physical investment, industrial demand, jewelry, and silverware production, according to the Silver Institute’s Interim Silver Market Review.
Global silver demand is projected to reach a new high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022. That would be a 16% increase from 2021.
Institutional demand for silver has faced headwinds due to rising interest rates with Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. This has led to a decrease in silver ETF holdings. But** demand for physical silver has been robust.** Physical investment demand is on pace to jump by 18% to 329 million ounces this year. According to the Silver Institute, “Support has come from investor fears of high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, recessionary concerns, mistrust in government, and buying on price dips. The rise was boosted further by a (near-doubling) of Indian demand, a recovery from a slump last year, with investors often taking advantage of lower rupee prices.”
We’ve seen signs of this high demand in the rapidly decreasing levels of silver in COMEX vaults.
Industrial demand makes up more than 60% of silver usage each year. It is on track to set a new record of 539 million ounces in 2022. The push for green energy has helped drive industrial demand higher with more and more silver being used to produce solar panels. The electrification of vehicles is also boosting demand, along with the adoption of 5G technologies. According to the Silver Institute, demand in these emerging markets has helped silver overcome macroeconomic headwinds as the global economy has slowed.
Demand for silver jewelry and silverware is projected to surge by 29% and 72% respectively. Jewelry production will use about 235 million ounces and silverware fabrication will consume another 73 million ounces this year. What the Silver Institute describes as “an unprecedented rebound in Indian demand” is driving demand in these categories higher. “This has partly been driven by strong inventory replenishment ahead of the festive and wedding season, following heavy stock depletion in 2021.”
Silver mine output will only chart a small 1% increase in 2022. As a result, the global silver market is forecast to record a second consecutive deficit in 2022. The 194 million ounce shortfall will represent a multi-decade high and will likely come in at four times the level seen in 2021.
With silver prices still relatively low, this is a great time to add silver to your investment portfolio. According to research by Oxford Economics, investors would benefit from an average of 4 to 6 percent silver allocation within a diversified portfolio. This is far below the average investor’s exposure to silver.
There are signs that silver is significantly undervalued. The silver-gold ratio is currently over 83-1. That means it takes over 83 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1. Historically, the ratio has always returned to that mean. And when it does, it does it with a vengeance. The ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 and below 20-1 in 1979.
Historically, when the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.
And as the Silver Institute projections show, The supply and demand dynamics also look good for silver even with a looming recession.
Silver Is On Sale, But It Won’t Be For Long!
The fundamental backdrop has never been stronger.
Gee, I dunno but this sounds like strong demand for silver across all market segments and not just ASEs.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Demand is considered high when it exceeds available supply. Believe what you will but ASE high premiums are a result of high ASE demand. Granted, high ASE demand has reduced available supply, but really, which came first the chicken or the egg?
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
@dcarr said:
... then high premiums on all retail silver products indicate increased demand for them.
And that's exactly what Ive said.
I don't think you did. Where did you "say" (write) that high premiums are due to high demand ?
Everything you wrote seems to be along the lines of this statement of yours:
"I'm not promoting the idea of huge demand ..."
I said when all other types of silver carry high premiums, then you will have showed demand for silver.
Some on here have said that if ASEs have high premium then that shows high demand, and that simply isn't true. It only shows demand exceeding supply for ASEs.
And only after spot has dropped over $10 in the last 18 months have we finally seen increased premium on other silver products.
It took a drop of over 30% in spot to increased premiums in other junk. That ain't a symptom of excessive supply.
That still isn't making any sense.
Here, I fixed it for you:
"a drop of over 30% in spot increased the demand for other physical forms of silver.".
@jmski52 said: It took a drop of over 30% in spot to increased premiums in other junk. That ain't a symptom of excessive supply.
Since you probably didn't bother to glance at the link that derryb provided, I'll post some of it here:
Silver demand is on pace to hit record levels in 2022, driven by new highs for physical investment, industrial demand, jewelry, and silverware production, according to the Silver Institute’s Interim Silver Market Review.
Global silver demand is projected to reach a new high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022. That would be a 16% increase from 2021.
Institutional demand for silver has faced headwinds due to rising interest rates with Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. This has led to a decrease in silver ETF holdings. But** demand for physical silver has been robust.** Physical investment demand is on pace to jump by 18% to 329 million ounces this year. According to the Silver Institute, “Support has come from investor fears of high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, recessionary concerns, mistrust in government, and buying on price dips. The rise was boosted further by a (near-doubling) of Indian demand, a recovery from a slump last year, with investors often taking advantage of lower rupee prices.”
We’ve seen signs of this high demand in the rapidly decreasing levels of silver in COMEX vaults.
Industrial demand makes up more than 60% of silver usage each year. It is on track to set a new record of 539 million ounces in 2022. The push for green energy has helped drive industrial demand higher with more and more silver being used to produce solar panels. The electrification of vehicles is also boosting demand, along with the adoption of 5G technologies. According to the Silver Institute, demand in these emerging markets has helped silver overcome macroeconomic headwinds as the global economy has slowed.
Demand for silver jewelry and silverware is projected to surge by 29% and 72% respectively. Jewelry production will use about 235 million ounces and silverware fabrication will consume another 73 million ounces this year. What the Silver Institute describes as “an unprecedented rebound in Indian demand” is driving demand in these categories higher. “This has partly been driven by strong inventory replenishment ahead of the festive and wedding season, following heavy stock depletion in 2021.”
Silver mine output will only chart a small 1% increase in 2022. As a result, the global silver market is forecast to record a second consecutive deficit in 2022. The 194 million ounce shortfall will represent a multi-decade high and will likely come in at four times the level seen in 2021.
With silver prices still relatively low, this is a great time to add silver to your investment portfolio. According to research by Oxford Economics, investors would benefit from an average of 4 to 6 percent silver allocation within a diversified portfolio. This is far below the average investor’s exposure to silver.
There are signs that silver is significantly undervalued. The silver-gold ratio is currently over 83-1. That means it takes over 83 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1. Historically, the ratio has always returned to that mean. And when it does, it does it with a vengeance. The ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 and below 20-1 in 1979.
Historically, when the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.
And as the Silver Institute projections show, The supply and demand dynamics also look good for silver even with a looming recession.
Silver Is On Sale, But It Won’t Be For Long!
The fundamental backdrop has never been stronger.
Gee, I dunno but this sounds like strong demand for silver across all market segments and not just ASEs.
Sounds like the same old tired marketing scheme.
Dealers on this very forum have not indicated any increased demand. Do you believe them, or the marketeers?
I've watched some interesting videos lately that talk about the US Mint reducing output because they can't buy planchets from silver fabricators for anything more than spot, and the producers aren't excited to sell to the Mint when they can sell to private minters at a higher price on the free market.
Somewhere along the line, the Mint decided to outsource their planchets instead of producing them themselves, and consequently they can't ramp up production in-house by purchasing metal on the exchange and fabricating it themselves because the equipment is no longer there.
Apparently, the Mint is able to procure some planchets based solely on established relationships, but that's not going to get them very far. Congress has made an inquiry as to why the Mint is lagging in production and the Mint's excuse is because of the original legislation that requires that they buy at spot price, which is now out of the question since they have no ability to process & fabricate the metal.
As I recall, the original legislation mandates that the Mint and their distributors sell ASEs at a nominal markup only, something in the range of 2-3% over spot to distributors........and a nominal markup over that to consumers.
It looks like a supply chain problem that has no easy solution at this time.
On top of that, ASE demand has ballooned from the 10 million range per year initially to more like 30-40 million in recent years.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
I've watched some interesting videos lately that talk about the US Mint reducing output because they can't buy planchets from silver fabricators for anything more than spot, and the producers aren't excited to sell to the Mint when they can sell to private minters at a higher price on the free market.
Somewhere along the line, the Mint decided to outsource their planchets instead of producing them themselves, and consequently they can't ramp up production in-house by purchasing metal on the exchange and fabricating it themselves because the equipment is no longer there.
Apparently, the Mint is able to procure some planchets based solely on established relationships, but that's not going to get them very far. Congress has made an inquiry as to why the Mint is lagging in production and the Mint's excuse is because of the original legislation that requires that they buy at spot price, which is now out of the question since they have no ability to process & fabricate the metal.
As I recall, the original legislation mandates that the Mint and their distributors sell ASEs at a nominal markup only, something in the range of 2-3% over spot to distributors........and a nominal markup over that to consumers.
It looks like a supply chain problem that has no easy solution at this time.
On top of that, ASE demand has ballooned from the 10 million range per year initially to more like 30-40 million in recent years.
Again, you've stated this is a supply issue, not a demand issue.
The sold 30-40 millions ASE during 2009-2016. Is demand for ASE higher that that today?
Again, you've stated this is a supply issue, not a demand issue.
When silver planchet suppliers choose to sell elsewhere to the higher bidder it is not a supply issue, it is a good business decision. The fact that their other customers besides the US Mint are willing to pay more tells us it is a demand issue.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Gutter goes up, gutter goes down, at the end of the day compared to every other commodity on planet earth its down buried in the gutter. Not much demand less a few bunker conspiracy jobs. Don't worry buy premiums are up big time and this time it's finally it. lol. CRZY WRLD!
@blitzdude said:
Gutter goes up, gutter goes down, at the end of the day compared to every other commodity on planet earth its down buried in the gutter. Not much demand less a few bunker conspiracy jobs. Don't worry buy premiums are up big time and this time it's finally it. lol. CRZY WRLD!
This is stupid.
"not much demand" but "premiums are up big time"
Contradictory to the maximum.
Comments
I believe he was asking about ASE demand not central bank gold demand. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
And he should be asking about PM demand regardless of who is demanding it. lol
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
You forgot to include the United States in your bar graph.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Bullion silver eagle sales US Mint: This data does not count numismatic eagle sales.
2018 15.7 million ounces (ATB 5-ounce pucks available as alternatives)
2019 14.86 million ounces (ATB's available)
2020 30.09 million ounces- huge demand, silver opened year at $18.05 hit a high of $29.26 on speculation Reddit etc.
2021 28.275 million eagles (new eagle design became available and Morgans came out as other alternatives for silver)
2022 to date (incl. Oct.) only 14.5 million US silver eagle bullion ounces available. Supply down half, premiums increase to double to compensate. Planchet availability limited. No ATB puck options or Morgans either in 2022. The US Mint silver production way down all things considered.
A very complicated set of events with silver the past few years. I don't understand all the factors, so just stack a little every year.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Maybe you should call them. I'm not promoting the idea of huge demand, you are. So the burden of proof is on you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Nows there deflection for ya. Lol.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Maybe you should call them. I'm not promoting the idea of huge demand, you are. So the burden of proof is on you.
Actually, you are the one doubting what Apmex has posted on their website. Therefore, the onus is on you to do the proving.
I knew it would happen.
Prove what? To you? lol
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
I'm not doubting what they posted.
I'm questioning the narrative of increased demand for ASE. And no one has yet proven demand is the reason for the premium. All evidence points to lack of supply.
Lack of supply is not the same as strong demand. Even someone with an MBA should know the difference.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm questioning the narrative of increased demand for ASE. And no one has yet proven demand is the reason for the premium. All evidence points to lack of supply.
Lack of supply is not the same as strong demand. Even someone with an MBA should know the difference.
Hey, if major dealers are talking about high demand, I would expect you to provide some sort of proof otherwise. Believe what you want. Premiums wouldn't be as high as they are if there was lackluster demand. You don't need an MBA to understand that.
If there weren't high demand, the Mint would be completely sold out of ASEs and the prices would be the same as when the Mint was pumpiing out twice as many. There would be no motivation on the part of buyers to pay a premium. But that is not the case. Buyers are paying up to a 90% premium, whether you and blitzie think so or not.
My most recent box of silver was 1 oz .999 Buffalo rounds. I couldn't justify the high premium for ASEs, and that was over a year ago - before the Mint cut back on production of ASEs. The dealer I bought from told me then, that demand for ASEs was making it hard to find them in quantity. That wasn't because supplies were short. It was because demand was high.
I knew it would happen.
See the print between the ****? These are your words. And you followed it up with "because supplies were short".
YOU JUST SAID SUPPLY WAS THE ISSUE!!!!
Edit--and you said "the Mint cut back on production". THATS A SUPPLY ISSUE!!!
Does MBA stand for Master Bull**** Artist?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So why were ASE premiums going through the roof before the mint cut back production? Also note the mint is cutting back production because of a shortage of coin blanks from their contractor. There is not a shortage of raw silver, coming out of the ground every day. There is a hungry market eating up what is produced from all that raw silver. Believe what you want but it is a demand issue. It is only a supply issue in the sense that all of the demand is soaking up the supply. So yes, as with anything else, record demand is creating a supply problem.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
@jmski52 said:
The dealer I bought from told me then, that demand for ASEs was making it ****hard to find them in quantity****. That wasn't because supplies were short. It was because demand was high.
See the print between the ****? These are your words. And you followed it up with "because supplies were short".
YOU JUST SAID SUPPLY WAS THE ISSUE!!!!
Edit--and you said "the Mint cut back on production". THATS A SUPPLY ISSUE!!!
Does MBA stand for Master Bull**** Artist?
I think it's important to archive your response to show how you proceed to twist what I said. Anyone who is interested can read my comment and then examine your response. You twist and take things out of context way too much and way too often. No point in debating it.
I knew it would happen.
I love archived posts!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So yes, as with anything else, record demand is creating a supply problem.
So far you have only successfully proved restricted supply. The mint has produced fewer ASEs, thus supply constraint. You have not proven "record demand".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Premiums, grasshopper, premiums.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Is supply limited, or has demand increased ?
American Silver Eagles only make up a relatively small portion of the overall silver market.
So using them as a basis for evaluating the entire silver market is erroneous.
Why has the US Mint produced fewer 2022 Silver Eagles ?
2022 silver production from mines is up.
Production capacity for silver blanks and Silver Eagles has not decreased.
Supply is being diverted to other products. For example, Sunshine Mining/Minting can produce and sell their own silver products at a higher profit margin than providing Silver Blanks to the US Mint.
So if the world-wide supply of silver has not decreased, and production capacity for retail silver products has not declined, then high premiums on all retail silver products indicate increased demand for them.
I am NOT smart enough to contribute to this discussion. However, I do have a question. This is a serious question, not snark.
The discussion about supply seems to be focused on 2022, and current conditions. That said, wouldn't the total available supply of ASE also include prior years, not just 2022?
From what I can tell, ALL of the available ASE are selling at a premium.
For example, right now at APMEX for a single BU coin via check:
Asterisk: For the premium calculation:
Source: https://www.apmex.com
wouldn't the total available supply of ASE also include prior years, not just 2022?
Yes!
That is also my contention when talking about ASE premiums and ASE supply. Although the Mint has significantly tapered back this year, this year's production makes but a small impact on the total supply of ASEs. Therefore, supply is not the issue.
That small fraction of total supply would never explain a 90% to 100% premium, and besides - the premiums have been very high now for several years, long before the Mint decided to curtail production.
I knew it would happen.
@jmski52
Thanks for the response, and insight.
While extreme premiums affect all ASEs, current demand is not being met by current production. This has driven premiums for all ASEs. A bullion ASE is a bullion ASE regardless of year.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Thanks.
I can think of at least 2 years that disagree with you. I've had several doomsayers trade me 1 roll for 2 of theirs due to the multimillion minted rare "key dates". LOL, you can't make this stuff up. #WTJ RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Anyone who would pay extra for a 1996 bullion ASE because they think a mintage of 3,608,886 could possible make the coin a "key date" should probably not be buying silver eagles.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
I completely agree but I've had multiple dealers do it.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Exactly. And that's what we've been trying to tell deeryb since the beginning of this thread when he claimed the premiums on ASEs vs spot was indicative of huge silver demand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And that's exactly what Ive said.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sure it would, and happens in many markets, especially commodity markets. Look at oil, or copper, or even grains. Commodities often have inelastic demand pricing. A 10% increase in demand can easily equate to a 100% price increase, especially when supply is constrained.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I don't think you did. Where did you "say" (write) that high premiums are due to high demand ?
Everything you wrote seems to be along the lines of this statement of yours:
"I'm not promoting the idea of huge demand ..."
Silver Demand on Pace for Record Year
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
I said when all other types of silver carry high premiums, then you will have showed demand for silver.
Some on here have said that if ASEs have high premium then that shows high demand, and that simply isn't true. It only shows demand exceeding supply for ASEs.
And only after spot has dropped over $10 in the last 18 months have we finally seen increased premium on other silver products.
It took a drop of over 30% in spot to increased premiums in other junk. That ain't a symptom of excessive supply.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It took a drop of over 30% in spot to increased premiums in other junk. That ain't a symptom of excessive supply.
Since you probably didn't bother to glance at the link that derryb provided, I'll post some of it here:
Silver demand is on pace to hit record levels in 2022, driven by new highs for physical investment, industrial demand, jewelry, and silverware production, according to the Silver Institute’s Interim Silver Market Review.
Global silver demand is projected to reach a new high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022. That would be a 16% increase from 2021.
Institutional demand for silver has faced headwinds due to rising interest rates with Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. This has led to a decrease in silver ETF holdings. But** demand for physical silver has been robust.** Physical investment demand is on pace to jump by 18% to 329 million ounces this year. According to the Silver Institute, “Support has come from investor fears of high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, recessionary concerns, mistrust in government, and buying on price dips. The rise was boosted further by a (near-doubling) of Indian demand, a recovery from a slump last year, with investors often taking advantage of lower rupee prices.”
We’ve seen signs of this high demand in the rapidly decreasing levels of silver in COMEX vaults.
Industrial demand makes up more than 60% of silver usage each year. It is on track to set a new record of 539 million ounces in 2022. The push for green energy has helped drive industrial demand higher with more and more silver being used to produce solar panels. The electrification of vehicles is also boosting demand, along with the adoption of 5G technologies. According to the Silver Institute, demand in these emerging markets has helped silver overcome macroeconomic headwinds as the global economy has slowed.
Demand for silver jewelry and silverware is projected to surge by 29% and 72% respectively. Jewelry production will use about 235 million ounces and silverware fabrication will consume another 73 million ounces this year. What the Silver Institute describes as “an unprecedented rebound in Indian demand” is driving demand in these categories higher. “This has partly been driven by strong inventory replenishment ahead of the festive and wedding season, following heavy stock depletion in 2021.”
Silver mine output will only chart a small 1% increase in 2022. As a result, the global silver market is forecast to record a second consecutive deficit in 2022. The 194 million ounce shortfall will represent a multi-decade high and will likely come in at four times the level seen in 2021.
With silver prices still relatively low, this is a great time to add silver to your investment portfolio. According to research by Oxford Economics, investors would benefit from an average of 4 to 6 percent silver allocation within a diversified portfolio. This is far below the average investor’s exposure to silver.
There are signs that silver is significantly undervalued. The silver-gold ratio is currently over 83-1. That means it takes over 83 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1. Historically, the ratio has always returned to that mean. And when it does, it does it with a vengeance. The ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 and below 20-1 in 1979.
Historically, when the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.
And as the Silver Institute projections show, The supply and demand dynamics also look good for silver even with a looming recession.
Silver Is On Sale, But It Won’t Be For Long!
The fundamental backdrop has never been stronger.
Gee, I dunno but this sounds like strong demand for silver across all market segments and not just ASEs.
I knew it would happen.
Demand is considered high when it exceeds available supply. Believe what you will but ASE high premiums are a result of high ASE demand. Granted, high ASE demand has reduced available supply, but really, which came first the chicken or the egg?
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
That still isn't making any sense.
Here, I fixed it for you:
"a drop of over 30% in spot increased the demand for other physical forms of silver.".
Sounds like the same old tired marketing scheme.
Dealers on this very forum have not indicated any increased demand. Do you believe them, or the marketeers?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm seeing increased demand with my PM BST listings.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Great example of a dealers vs marketeer!! Thank you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I've watched some interesting videos lately that talk about the US Mint reducing output because they can't buy planchets from silver fabricators for anything more than spot, and the producers aren't excited to sell to the Mint when they can sell to private minters at a higher price on the free market.
Somewhere along the line, the Mint decided to outsource their planchets instead of producing them themselves, and consequently they can't ramp up production in-house by purchasing metal on the exchange and fabricating it themselves because the equipment is no longer there.
Apparently, the Mint is able to procure some planchets based solely on established relationships, but that's not going to get them very far. Congress has made an inquiry as to why the Mint is lagging in production and the Mint's excuse is because of the original legislation that requires that they buy at spot price, which is now out of the question since they have no ability to process & fabricate the metal.
As I recall, the original legislation mandates that the Mint and their distributors sell ASEs at a nominal markup only, something in the range of 2-3% over spot to distributors........and a nominal markup over that to consumers.
It looks like a supply chain problem that has no easy solution at this time.
On top of that, ASE demand has ballooned from the 10 million range per year initially to more like 30-40 million in recent years.
I knew it would happen.
Again, you've stated this is a supply issue, not a demand issue.
The sold 30-40 millions ASE during 2009-2016. Is demand for ASE higher that that today?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Again, you've stated this is a supply issue, not a demand issue.
The sold 30-40 millions ASE during 2009-2016. Is demand for ASE higher that that today?
The full explanation is in my two previous posts, which you choose not to understand.
I knew it would happen.
When silver planchet suppliers choose to sell elsewhere to the higher bidder it is not a supply issue, it is a good business decision. The fact that their other customers besides the US Mint are willing to pay more tells us it is a demand issue.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Gutter goes up, gutter goes down, at the end of the day compared to every other commodity on planet earth its down buried in the gutter. Not much demand less a few bunker conspiracy jobs. Don't worry buy premiums are up big time and this time it's finally it. lol. CRZY WRLD!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
This is stupid.
"not much demand" but "premiums are up big time"
Contradictory to the maximum.