$1330 gold
Soldi
Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭✭✭
Some expert writers on metals specifically gold saying we're in a super cycle of gold pricing. Next low and soon $1300s per ounce, sure is a dismal outlook. The 'masses are panicking' is the inference. Seems to me this rare coin and gold bull run is about over. This seems emotional rather than based in any sound economics although worldwide the Dollar is seriously strong.
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$1300 gold would be a liquid dream. THKS!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Gold Starting Stage 4 Decline and What It Means for Investors
Google this article
$1300 gold would be a liquid dream. THKS!!! So, I take it you're a buyer at 1330. Lows
I read something similar from an investing group. I don’t recall which one. It was looking at a technical view of gold prices.
FED fixin' to destroy this myth.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Pivot ?? You think.
Well if gold hits 1,300 that would be close to getting it out of the ground if fuel prices remain high and you can bet many sovereign entities will be backing up the station wagon and loading.
I don't see this gold bear leg breaking under the key support of $1375-$1389. I think $1444-$1455 would be enough to hold this decline. With $1550 being the first target under $1600 if that's where gold wants to go. Recall from 2014-2019 that the 144 and 89 month simple moving averages bounded gold to the top side and bottom side. Gold found it very difficult to get over that 89 mma....it failed numerous times. And now those two along with the 55 mma ($1615) are fairly strong support. Gold last week bounced exactly off $1615 on its way back to $1670+. $1600-$1615 was an intermediate support level. The 89 mma is currently at $1469, The 144 mma now at $1461. So another plus for $1450 holding. Remember that gold broke out above 6-year resistance at $1375 in 2019. That was THE break out. Gold might be thinking it has to retest that 6 year meandering breakout to start a fresh bull leg.
A 61.8% retrace of the entire move from 2016-2020 is $1439. Why is that important? Well that's the point where the this current 11 year bowl with handles or a 6 year cup with handle would blow up. A retrace below 61.8% is too deep a handle to make sense of. So again, busting through that $1440-$1455 support zone puts gold on the hot seat should $1375 get approached. Another support point from the 2011-2019 period is $1434. That's the final rebound HIGH in 2013 when gold gave it all up and headed down towards $1046 by late 2015. The throw in the towel point. Gold gapped down from that $1434 point and that gap stayed open for 6 years. Too many current reasons from the charts to say gold will get past $1434-$1455. I lived that period day to day and the scars are still in my mind.
If gold does manage a breach of the $1375 region that lasts for more than a couple days, then this bull market might be over....or never was even a bull market to begin with.....rather a continuation C leg of the 2011-2022 decline.
Gold miners and silver factor into this as well. GSR looks to have peaked on this bear bounce at 96. There's a Support/Resistance zone at 93-96 which GSR can't seem to get through. It's now back to 86. Looks to be headed downwards. The GSR peak from 2020 was 126 and it fell to 62 on the next move down. The rebound to 96 is almost a perfect 50% retrace of that big drop. So I think GSR is headed to the 25 yr normal zone of around 55....and possibly a date with the 30-45 zone again. Silver is now stronger than gold....and it's correction was much deeper than gold's....going back to 2008 levels. Let's not forget that silver put in a 9 yr bottom in March 2020 (so did oil and Plat). And it's still in a bear market? I have trouble with that one. In the same light is that miners (GDX) is above their bull/bear line of $22.80-$23.35. That bull/bear line has held very true from 2013-2019. And it briefly came into play twice in September. For now, GDX is above that zone and technically bullish. A third breach of the zone will be curtains and invite the $20 and $18 range.
I'm siding with gold support at the $1444/1550 levels for now.....assuming the recent $1615 gold low wasn't the bottom. I sort of feel it has to tangle with the 1500's or 1400's. We'll see. Until something major changes in gold, silver, miners, or GSR.....the dollar continuing to run through the end of the year or into early 2023 can give PMs fits. The person above calling for $1300 gold is saying it will retrace 75% of the 2015-2020 rise of +$1029. Pretty extreme if you ask me considering in the past 50 years gold has never retraced more than 50-62% of any major up move. Miners and Silver have both corrected up to 75% or more....but never gold. If we look at the 2 most common large corrections for gold at -50% and -61.8% we get $1560 and $1439. Not currently seeing how $1300 fits into a good analysis. If gold gets that far down I don't see why it can't even go back to $900-$1200 again.
Rr
If you read closely the person above didn't say it would hit $1,300, he said IF IT DID HIT THAT POINT, IT WOULD BE KATY BAR THE DOOR FOR BUYING.
I cannot predict the future, can you?
Roadrunner! Thoughtful considerate of you to explain why and show reasoning. Quite the informative posting. Regards, Michael
Several people above mentioned $1300 gold....and an article was referenced to that effect. But I apologize if you or anyone else felt singled out or slighted. I should have said "persons" are looking at or dreaming of $1300 gold. Sorry.
I wouldn't want to touch gold under a $1350 break as there's no real downside support anymore bringing all the lows of 2013-2018 back into play. It could go under $1000. I'd be looking to buy it again on a dip to $1300 or lower....and then when or if it got back above the $1389/$1444 levels....the bull/bear line of the past 9 yrs. And in typical "Titanic" fashion, very few regular people will be loading up on gold under $1350 as they'd be too scared to buy....for fear it goes lower. I'm not predicting ANYTHING by my post above....just giving my leanings and supporting them with TA+charting and historical facts. It's all conjecture.
But, I've been batting pretty high on my chart predictions the past 2 years. I nailed the recent low in GDX to within 12c just based on simple charting. I predicted that bottom 4-6 months out.....and had a good feeling a year before that those 2 yr lows in miners and gold would get tested again. At the start of the Feb/March 2020 pandemic crash my brother was asking me what might the lows be when it all played out? Well, once the Dow busted the 24/25K support level I told him look for just under 19K. It ended up bouncing at 18,140. Those predictions based on basic charting techniques....many which have good predictive powers once the direction seems set. The Dow left behind some big gaps at 19,000 and 23,500 following pandemic crash rebound. If 25K gets busted yet again, look for those levels to reappear. It's not about predicting....it's about playing the odds when things stack up well in your favor. Then you can make a fairly high probability conjecture.
I thought your posting was sincere and well written
Great technical analysis for gold. However, I for one believe it to be effective only when dealing with markets that have not been prostituted by outside influence. When simple laws of supply and demand no longer apply, the market is broken. Broken market prices are determined by unnatural market forces. Technical analysis is great when working with reliable technicals.
Such was the case when the FED flooded Wall St. with trillion$. We are now witnessing those markets seeking true equilibrium.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Talk about making the simple complicated. Sheesh.
KISS.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A picture is as good as a thousand words.
@Roadrunner... Thank you for your analysis and information. Interesting to watch.... and, like the radical jump this morning, surprises in store. Cheers, RickO
@streeter
The only problem with your chart is that it doesn't show the scale or timeline or the 50 day vs. 200 day moving averages.
I find it interesting that we see a convergence between all curves but there is no indication of when that will occur.
This worries me.
I knew it would happen.
@roadrunner
Welcome back!
Here is everything, simplified:
We have 'flation.
The Federal Reserve is attempting to induce some "stag".
So we have (and will have) "stagflation".
Stagflation is inevitable.
Standards of living are going down at this time.
How could they not, based on war, mismanagement of the economy, pandemic shutdowns, and a move away from "globalization" towards "regionalization" and "localization" ? Add to that some unfavorable demographics (in the workforce) for repatriating industry to local areas.
Stagflation is the MECHANISM by which standards of living decline.
>
Isnt this what we wanted, to bring jobs back from overseas?
But to bring the thread back, how does the price of gold behave in your "inevitable"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So the FED could purposely end them in an effort to reach their inflation target? LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A solution is available. We make gold illegal to own!!!
No wait, that's been done . . . . .
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Yup...more burger flippers. Haha
https://www.syracuse.com/business/2022/10/micron-picks-syracuse-suburb-for-huge-computer-chip-plant-that-would-bring-up-to-9000-jobs.html
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Corporate welfare at its best! Micron is now the largest welfare queen here in Idaho...
Agreed.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
>
We don't want lower standards of living. But that seems inevitable at this time.
The market price of gold went up during the great depression. So ...
Gold price went up in 1933 for reason you know. The depression had bottomed. The stock market also bottomed and tripled in just a few years.
Ones standard of living is personal. If you dont like your standars of living then change it. Work harder or smarter. Learn a skill or trade. Produce a good or service folk need.
We can go into a depression and I will guarantee my standard of living will increase because I will make it happen. I want it to. You spoke of slaves before. Dont be a slave to society, and dont speak for all of us.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It is quite certain that "we" (the people) do not want a lower standard of living.
If you have to work harder to maintain your previous standard, that is effectively a lowering of your standard of living.
Regarding gold, the "official" government price was fixed at $20.67. But people were hoarding gold and the free-market (world-wide) price was increasing throughout the Great Depression. Then in 1933 Roosevelt was forced to raise the official price to $35, in reaction to the true market forces at the time.
Leading up to 1933, the gold standard was massively cheated on. The US Government's official price became more and more artificial.
The "Illegal gold" was priced at $20.67 in 1929. The assigned price by the Roosevelt era government, upon confiscation, surrender etc, was $35 by 1934
By slight of hand and law a 25 % increase in value "magic money" for the government in charge. Keynesian economics and the best way to fight off the economic downturn was an increase in money supply.
Therefore! Increase the money supply by increasing the value of gold from 1933 to 1934.
Executive orders! Seen any lately?
Gold at $1300 would be nice. Those that say under $1000, even better. I would love the $500 Double Eagles from early 2000’s.
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