What would you guys guesstimate the odds of getting a silver dime/quarter in a roll are? Plus...

Estil

I'm just curious, is there any sort of way to roughly estimate, or even guesstimate the odds of finding a silver dime or quarter in a roll are? Or the odds of finding a Buffalo or a War Nickel (the 35% silver ones with the big mintmark letter over the Monticello) in a nickel roll? Or the odds of finding a Wheatie in a penny roll?

Jzyskowski1

Hang on. We’re working on it 😁

taxbuster1040

Your best odds are for wheat pennies.... I find them in almost every roll. For silver, I have always found that I am most likely to find silver in a kennedy half roll. The odds are still low for this, but for me it is the fun of the chase.

1630Boston

Here's where things really get interesting.

From 1932 to 1964, they produced a little over 3.77 Billion silver quarters TOTAL, for circulation. This number sounds huge. But in reality, this is nothing!

1965 to 1967, they produced over 4.1 Billion in these 3 years alone!

Which means if it was theoretically possible to do, you could throw EVERY 1932-1964 quarter ever made for circulation (32 years worth of quarters) into a pot........ Then throw every 1965 to 1967 quarter (3 years) ever made into the same pot and mix it all up. Now, you get to pick a quarter out, blind folded. The chances of picking out a silver quarter would be LESS THAN 50%!! That's just having the 65s through 67s mixed in! You would have a 48% chance of picking a silver quarter out of the pile.
.
They put over 1.6 billion bi-centennials into circulation. You can't even hardly find one of these anymore!

The state quarters program alone easily saw over 1.5 billion quarters EVERY YEAR being dumped into circulation. This was common. Not to mention all the old quarters, dealers and collectors are sitting on, or that the TPGs have graded.

So bottom line, what is your chance of pulling ANY old quarter out of circulation now? I quickly and roughly skimmed through all the mintages since '65 to get a rough number. I came up with around 75 Billion new quarters made, from 65-2008. If we wanted to pretend in a perfect World that ALL Washington quarters were still in circulation and up for grabs, you would have roughly a 4.7% chance of receiving a 32-64 quarter in circulation. Which of course is a fantasy. We can assume that almost no old quarters are left in circulation, making the very high number of 4.7% much, much less. Most likely less than a 1% chance by now. And getting smaller each year that goes by.

Unless of course somebody just spent one out of somebody's collection (which, I won't be waiting around for either), this is rare happening!

So, hopefully anybody searching a bank roll these days is looking for DD's, or errors. I believe searching had it's day, but that day has come and passed.

(Cited from: https://www.cointalk.com/threads/the-futility-of-searching-circulating-coins-for-silver-washington-quarter-edition.46623/)

ricko

I will respect the statistics offered by @1630Boston. That being said, I still find war nickels in change, wheat cents, and the occasional silver quarter in the Coinstar reject bin. Cheers, RickO

AlanSki

On eBay… very likely. In the wild, less likely.

Smudge

Not worth the trouble.

Estil

"very likely", "less likely", "not worth the trouble"...I meant more along the lines of actual numbers.

JBK

I often find a war nickel in a box of nickels (2000 coins). Buffalos less often.

I found two silver quarters in a CWR and none for a long time before then.

cladking

@1630Boston said:

Which means if it was theoretically possible to do, you could throw EVERY 1932-1964 quarter ever made for circulation (32 years worth of quarters) into a pot........ Then throw every 1965 to 1967 quarter (3 years) ever made into the same pot and mix it all up. Now, you get to pick a quarter out, blind folded. The chances of picking out a silver quarter would be LESS THAN 50%!! That's just having the 65s through 67s mixed in! You would have a 48% chance of picking a silver quarter out of the pile.

Of course by the time they made the 1967 quarters a lot of the old silver coins had been lost or pulled out of circulation by collectors. Today the numbers are very different. About 65% of the old silver quarters still survive but only 40% of the '65 to '67 and they are going fast.

This leaves 2.5 billion silver and only 1.6 billion clads.

The question really is academic anyway since every single silver quarter that was ever made was removed from circulation by 1972. Certainly there were still a very very few that had sat in old coffee cans since 1964 and found their way back into circulation but almost every silver quarter plucked from circulation since the early '70's had been removed from circulation but found its way back into circulation where it was quickly found and removed. Remember these can't circulate freely even if there weren't people removing them because all the machines reject them; even CoinStar. As proof just look at a handful of old silver found in circulation; despite wearing much less well than clad they are almost invariably in high grade. They almost all look just like they did in 1964 when people began pulling them from circulation.

Your odds of finding silver in circulation is an academic question as well since some counting houses remove them or most of the suppliers of coin to the counting house remove them. At the same time though quarters that flow into a laundry are far more likely to contain silver because people have to look around the house to find enough coins. Some sources are rich in silver and others have virtually no chance of having silver. Overall, I'd estimate the total number on average to be one silver quarter per four boxes; 8000 coins. But that quarter you find will be in the same condition it was in 1964.

There are far more dimes in circulation. Half dollars don't circulate but these have the highest incidence of silver (mostly 40%). War nickels are also fairly "common" but this is caused chiefly by the fact that once one gets back into circulation it can stay there for weeks because many people don't recognize it as silver.

For many years I've found it fascinating that collectors search rolls for old coins. I did this extensively before n1964 and it's why I hated the date freezes and the Transition. It ruined every denomination in change and all the scarcities disappeared in their entirety by 1970. The new coins were made in staggering numbers and lacked anything that might be considered "quality control". I couldn't imagine collecting them or searching change ever again so a huge part of my collecting enjoyment was I believed, permanently eradicated. As if everything done during the Transition weren't bad enough the mint and Fed lost pallets of old coins in the back of every warehouse. It was not unusual to get 1965 BU dime rolls in 1972 at the banks. But that year I saw an article that said they were going to start rotating their coin stocks and I knew all the coins would begin wearing out evenly so I took a far closer look at circulating coins once more. I quickly found that even the scarcest moderns just accumulated in circulation because people didn't pull them out like VF '21-S buffalos or a 1962 Washington quarter. I never imagined half a century later the coins still accumulate in circulation but now they are degraded and most of them are permanently lost to the ravages of time.

Today it is easier to find a nice AU silver quarter in circulation than any AU clad quarter made before 1974!!!!

You can go into any coin shop and buy rolls of nice BU silver quarters but virtually no coin shop will have any rolls of eagle reverse clad quarters of any date.

People always told me it didn't matter how scarce how scarce BU clad rolls were because collectors could always find coins in circulation. But no one has noticed that finding coins like the 1971(P) dimes in circulation in any condition is becoming highly problematical. If you did find one it will be nearly worn out and there's a 80% chance it would be a cull. You not only won't find nice XF '71 dimes at the coin shops you still won't find them into the future because people didn't fill folders or albums with them.

There's only one single way to stop dealers from having so many "sold out" listings in moderns and this means higher prices. There are numerous moderns that are typically "sold out" and they just stay that way. There is almost no wholesale market for most of these because dealers get most of their supply from mint sets and these as well are getting tougher. I don't foresee dealers paying retail prices to stock something like a 1970 sm dt mint set. These can retail over $100 now days so anything priced near ask tends to disappear and sellers can't restock. I think we may see more moderns selling at retail because of the lack of any sort of wholesale market. This will force a wholesale market but priming this pump will consume much of the supply.

Now the few surviving mint sets that supply the anemic demand for moderns are mostly tarnished. So far this has largely served just to squelch the demand but I wager going forward collectors are going to be less easily dissuaded. Much of the demand is from younger and less experienced collectors and these are both temporary conditions.

The coins in circulation today are far older than the coins that were circulating when I started collecting buffalo nickels from pocket change in 1957. At that time very few nickels older than 30 years even had a date, Even the dateless raised ground buffalo wasn't as old as a 1965 today. Today it is still routine to find 1965 nickels though they will be heavily worn or 1955 nickels in nice choice F condition!! Go figure!

1630Boston

Fantastic analysis @cladking

johnny9434

i buy my time, 2when i get the silver ones i get them, just saying

MFeld

In answer to each of the questions asked in the first post - no.

davewesen

modern silver proof quarters sometimes make it to circulation

fathom

Long.

CoinHoarder

@cladking:

Your detailed and well thought out analysis on these topics, are very interesting, and educational.

VanHalen

My wag is under 1 in 1,000 these days. 50 years ago when I was a kid it was probably close to 1 in 10.

Maywood

Somewhere between slim and none.

291fifth

The chances of finding a silver quarter or dime in a roll are so low it is not worth bother of trying.

lkenefic

FWIW, I looked through change, Coinstar rejects, and a bit of roll searching for over 4 years and only pulled one silver dime out if a Coinstar reject bin. I had much better luck with Wheat Cents and a few dateless Buffalo Nickels...

cladking

Thanks guys.

@291fifth said:
The chances of finding a silver quarter or dime in a roll are so low it is not worth bother of trying.

The mint (FED) began removing silver in about July of 1968 when the incidence got down to around 20%. The coins were rolled down chutes and those that went further were usually silver. This was a mechanized process and highly efficient. They ceased in about July of 1969 because they were retrieving too few to warrant the effort. By this time incidence of silver was under 1% and dropping rapidly. They got about 12 to 15% of all the silver which was in circulation in 1964.

For practical purposes silver was gone by 1970 but there were still a few coins getting into pocket change from piggy banks and the like. By 1972 this was pretty much at an end as well and silver found since simply are coins that were returned to circulation rather than coins that could be described as "circulating".

In 2008 the incidence of silver increased dramatically as households across the country were being dissolved. But even then it was hardly worth checking.

One might note that none of the silver quarters found in the last 20 years are all scratched up like most of the clads. This suggests the equipment damaging the clads rejects silver beforehand. Being much softer silver would get torn up more in whatever process is damaging the coins for the last 15 or 20 years.

Joe_360

Here what I can say, I started quarter roll hunting back in April, so to date is 6.months

During that 6 month period, I have found 5 silver quarters.

I would say that I average ~45 rolls per week (slightly less then a full box), there a 4.333 weeks in a month, so in a month that would equates to 1950 rolls

so considering ~1950 rolls per month * 6 months =/~11,700 rolls divided by 5 silver quarters would equal round to about ~2340 rolls searched to find a silver quarter

Joe_360

@Smudge
You do realize that CRH'ers also find other coins such as W, S, and UNC/AU?

I bought many silver coins made from the profits of CRH W's quarters, (Pennies on the dollar) so very much worth the trouble...

OAKSTAR

I can "GUARANTEE" you only one thing! And you can take this to the bank! Your (our) odds will dramatically increase 100% by going out searching and hitting banks rather then sitting here talking and reading about it. 😂 🤣 👍🏻

cladking

@OAKSTAR said:
I can "GUARANTEE" you only one thing! And you can take this to the bank! Your (our) odds will dramatically increase 100% by going out searching and hitting banks rather then sitting here talking and reading about it. 😂 🤣 👍🏻

There is a wealth of great coins in circulation chiefly because so few people are looking. Nearly 1% of circulating quarters are something scarce enough they might have a premium in short order. With so many obviously most won't have a substantial premium but a lot of these 1% are really very scarce and desirable right now. Silver, to me, is just gravy. The real meat are things like type h '72-D's or current Gems.

cladking

@Joe_360 said:
Here what I can say, I started quarter roll hunting back in April, so to date is 6.months

During that 6 month period, I have found 5 silver quarters.

I would say that I average ~45 rolls per week (slightly less then a full box), there a 4.333 weeks in a month, so in a month that would equates to 1950 rolls

so considering ~1950 rolls per month * 6 months =/~11,700 rolls divided by 5 silver quarters would equal round to about ~2340 rolls searched to find a silver quarter

I could well be wrong but you might do better if you switched banks. The rate is variable and my sample size is small enough I could be off significantly. Also it should be mentioned that my sample is based on many years of experience so if the rate has been decreasing it could be invisible to me. I doubt the rate is changing very rapidly though and know no processor cycles that might account for it. Since covid I've seen a few more and attribute it to the coin shortage.

Joe_360

@cladking ,
I go to 3 different bank locations and get rolls at grocery stores.

Not silver but have value, S NIFC and a 2020 W V75

cladking

@Joe_360 said:
@cladking ,
I go to 3 different bank locations and get rolls at grocery stores.

Your numbers are probably more accurate than mine then.

There could be a little variation across the country but probably not much except during economic downturns.

Cougar1978

Odds? Very low. But a consistent search using methods above may be worthwhile. Just a matter of putting in some time.

124Spider

The odds are very, very, very low. I suspect you'd have to look through hundreds of rolls (and maybe thousands) to get a silver coin.

Objective data: Several years ago, I decided I wanted to get a complete set of state and national park quarters (well, complete through that year), without spending more than $0.25 for each coin. This, obviously, involved prospecting through coin rolls. I went through more than 60 rolls, and did complete the set (I had to have my sister in Maryland send me out a bunch of rolls, since Philly coins don't get to Washington in numbers). But there was not one silver quarter in all those thousands of coins. And not one W-minted coin. There were many, many 1965 quarters, so one can reasonably infer that substantially all silver coins have been plucked and/or melted down; I suspect that most silver coins in circulation are from collections by people who inherited them and didn't know that they were silver, worth far more than face.

Glen2022

@Maywood said:
Somewhere between slim and none.

And slim just got on the train and left!!!!

Joe_360

@124Spider said "I went through more than 60 rolls, and did complete the set"

I can go through 60 rolls over a weekend... If you read my post, I did the math based on my experience, and I just got both a S and W quarters over the weekend. Honestly, silver is just the cherry on-top of all the other things CRH look for...

"it takes about ~2340 rolls searched to find a silver quarter" (based on 6 months of data)

blitzdude

The odds are slim to none. Customer wrapped rolls have slightly better odds than bank wrapped. In all honestly you have much higher odds finding gutter in the coinstar reject bin then you do finding anything in a bank wrapped roll. Their coin sorting machines reject the gutter just like the Coinstar machines do. RGDS!

Joe_360

@blitzdude
In bank wrapped rolls I have gotten nickels, Canadian quarter, slugs and yes silver, so the coin sorters are not rejecting anything... I have gotten 5 silver quaters since April. so slim yes, none no... And yes, I check Coin Star macinces, and I get far more dimes then quarters... My odds are high becaue I do both CRH and CS,,,,

Estil

@OAKSTAR said:
I can "GUARANTEE" you only one thing! And you can take this to the bank! Your (our) odds will dramatically increase 100% by going out searching and hitting banks rather then sitting here talking and reading about it. 😂 🤣 👍🏻

Really? Wow, I never thought of it that way! I could've never figured that out by myself! You truly are wise, OAKSTAR!

Estil

@Joe_360 said:
@Smudge
You do realize that CRH'ers also find other coins such as W, S, and UNC/AU?

I bought many silver coins made from the profits of CRH W's quarters, (Pennies on the dollar) so very much worth the trouble...

I have in fact found a few W's! But don't they have to be UNC/AU to really be worth much more than a quarter?

Elcontador

I wouldn't waste your time going through rolls. Do check the coinstar reject slots, though.
The machines don't process foreign or U.S. silver coinage. Six or eight months ago, I found a large handful of coins in one of them, and I wrote about it here.

Something like 28 Mercs and Silver Roosevelt Dimes, a well worn 1907 D Barber Dime, and about $4 in U.S. modern coins. If I saw the person putting the coins in, I would have alerted him / her before he / she left, but they were just sitting there in the reject slot. Will that happen again? A big no.

In the last year, I have found a worn silver dime on two occasions.

Recently, I found a Canadian dollar coin. A few years ago, I found about 5 euros worth or euro coins in various denominations, and I took them to Slovakia and spent them.

GiveMeProof

@cladking Please explain: type h '72-D's

Estil

@Joe_360 said:
Here what I can say, I started quarter roll hunting back in April, so to date is 6.months

During that 6 month period, I have found 5 silver quarters.

I would say that I average ~45 rolls per week (slightly less then a full box), there a 4.333 weeks in a month, so in a month that would equates to 1950 rolls

so considering ~1950 rolls per month * 6 months =/~11,700 rolls divided by 5 silver quarters would equal round to about ~2340 rolls searched to find a silver quarter

Well that would be 4x better odds then I originally guesstimated. I did in fact wonder if it was about the same odds as finding a four leaf clover or winning Pick 4 (about 1:10,000).

BeeMan

I have not found a silver coin in the till at work for many years. The last one was a 40% silver proof Ike.

OAKSTAR

@Estil said:

@OAKSTAR said:
I can "GUARANTEE" you only one thing! And you can take this to the bank! Your (our) odds will dramatically increase 100% by going out searching and hitting banks rather then sitting here talking and reading about it. 😂 🤣 👍🏻

Really? Wow, I never thought of it that way! I could've never figured that out by myself! You truly are wise, OAKSTAR!

Always glad to help. As you're reading this, you're losing valuable time! 🤣 😂

Joe_360

@Estil
No, circulated W (I have listed 25 on eBay since April) are still averaging at between $12.50 and 16,50 and the 2019 American Memorial Park and the 2020 March-Billings are getting >$30 for circulated, my highest was $36...

Estil asked, "But don't they have to be UNC/AU to really be worth much more than a quarter"?

Joe_360

@Estil said:

@Joe_360 said:
Here what I can say, I started quarter roll hunting back in April, so to date is 6.months

During that 6 month period, I have found 5 silver quarters.

I would say that I average ~45 rolls per week (slightly less then a full box), there a 4.333 weeks in a month, so in a month that would equates to 1950 rolls

so considering ~1950 rolls per month * 6 months =/~11,700 rolls divided by 5 silver quarters would equal round to about ~2340 rolls searched to find a silver quarter

Well that would be 4x better odds then I originally guesstimated. I did in fact wonder if it was about the same odds as finding a four leaf clover or winning Pick 4 (about 1:10,000).

Well remember, 2340 rolls is 93,600 quarters, so you were close...

Overdate

@cladking said:

@1630Boston said:

Of course by the time they made the 1967 quarters a lot of the old silver coins had been lost or pulled out of circulation by collectors. Today the numbers are very different. About 65% of the old silver quarters still survive but only 40% of the '65 to '67 and they are going fast.

It's likely that way less than 65% of the old silver quarters survive. These were heavily melted in the late 1960s, in the 1979-80 price runup (when bags of BU Morgan and Peace dollars were reportedly being melted), and in the ensuing decades. They fetch a nice premium now, but premiums on 90% silver were frequently negative in the 1980s and 90s and many more were sent to the smelters during that time.

cladking

@Overdate said:

@cladking said:

@1630Boston said:

Of course by the time they made the 1967 quarters a lot of the old silver coins had been lost or pulled out of circulation by collectors. Today the numbers are very different. About 65% of the old silver quarters still survive but only 40% of the '65 to '67 and they are going fast.

It's likely that way less than 65% of the old silver quarters survive. These were heavily melted in the late 1960s, in the 1979-80 price runup (when bags of BU Morgan and Peace dollars were reportedly being melted), and in the ensuing decades. They fetch a nice premium now, but premiums on 90% silver were frequently negative in the 1980s and 90s and many more were sent to the smelters during that time.

The Fed melted theirs in the late-'60's/ early '70's but they waited so long to remove them most were already gone from circulation. A lot of coins were melted in the late-'70's but this was so brief there wasn't time to have a big impact. Of course a lot have been destroyed by time and more recent melts.

A lot of what was circulating in 1964 was just junk. Everything of interest had been removed and these coins are still mostly "safe'. I might agree that my estimate of two thirds surviving is somewhat conservative but I doubt it's under half the mintage of silver coins from 1931 to 1964.

nwcoast

I agree with those saying the odds are exceedingly slim and not worth the effort unless you’re in there anyways searching for W’s and other modern oddities and minor errors.

I’ve NEVER found Silver in dime or quarter rolls though I’ve not searched very many, perhaps a hundred total. I have found some searching half dollar rolls though! And, I’ve found quite a bit of silver in Coinstar reject troughs.

I have several original bank dime rolls from a hoard stashed away in 1964 , and those rolls are of course, full of silver. Searching them, it’s the mercury dimes I’m hoping to find, and they’re surprisingly pretty uncommon.

Estil

@Joe_360 said:

Well remember, 2340 rolls is 93,600 quarters, so you were close...

I meant the odds of finding one in a roll, not individual coin.

Joe_360

@Estil said:

@Joe_360 said:
@Smudge
You do realize that CRH'ers also find other coins such as W, S, and UNC/AU?

I bought many silver coins made from the profits of CRH W's quarters, (Pennies on the dollar) so very much worth the trouble...

I have in fact found a few W's! But don't they have to be UNC/AU to really be worth much more than a quarter?

Hi Estil,
Just found this one today, I'll list it on eBay and let you know how it did. It's pretty nice and I should get ~$16 for it. After it sell, I'll send you a PM. I know that it's not silver but I'll buy some silver with the proceeds...

OAKSTAR

@Joe_360 said:

@Estil said:

@Joe_360 said:
@Smudge
You do realize that CRH'ers also find other coins such as W, S, and UNC/AU?

I bought many silver coins made from the profits of CRH W's quarters, (Pennies on the dollar) so very much worth the trouble...

I have in fact found a few W's! But don't they have to be UNC/AU to really be worth much more than a quarter?

Hi Estil,
Just found this one today, I'll list it on eBay and let you know it did. It's pretty nice and I should get ~$16 for it. After it sell, I'll send you a PM. I know that it's not silver but I'll buy some silver with the proceeds...

It's an indirect result but I funded several of my key date silver coins with rolls of these things I found in circulation!

Joe_360

Here goes folks, "There's Silver in them there rolls" Found today October 4th. #6 find since April

CoinHoarder

@Maywood said:
Somewhere between slim and none.

I agree with this. "Slim and none", and "slim just left town".

@Estil said:

"very likely", "less likely", "not worth the trouble"...I meant more along the lines of actual numbers.

Actual numbers? IMHOP, impossible to say.

Years ago I searched coin rolls. Pretty much little or no luck for silver as far as I remember. I ended up rolling up about $1,800. worth of searched change, and returning it to the bank. The tellers did not seem very happy about it.

To me, not worth the hassle or time. It seems much easier to just buy hand picked junk silver,

But if searching rolls is enjoyable for you, that's great! Just not my cup of tea.

Happy hunting!