Substantial declines in sales of collectibles on ebay
logger7
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This seems to be pervasive, of course there are exceptions: ebay collectible sales have declined substantially for many sellers. One dealer I spoke to was averaging $30K plus a month, his sales dropped like a rock in the summer and have come back slowly to around $12K a month. In calling ebay they said it was systemic, that the entire group was down substantially. An autograph seller I know has not had sales in weeks. Is this recession related, which would make sense because needs are the first priority for most of our fellow citizens not wants?
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Yep. This is happening across many sectors I fear.
Great Collections is on fire. Different trend there.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Can be due to several factors coinciding... Recession, inflation, end of pandemic variables such as isolation and searching for distractions - Cheers, RickO
Well, who can afford luxuries ? Sales at Goodwill are up substantially.
A couple of weeks ago, it was reported on the news that more and more rich people are now shopping at Walmart. Things must be getting really bad.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I would be hesitant to put much faith in anecdotal evidence of a few folks or the info from an eBay rep without actually seeing the data that they are seeing.
Also I would not use data from a few months to represent an overall trend or trajectory.
However, I have no actual data in regard to this subject, so it very well may be the case!
Just looking at trying to sell things on this forum - it has been harder and harder lately. The only offers are below wholesale prices.
We've been there for the past 18 months and it's getting worse from where I sit!
This sold in auction for $183. I just ordered more tenth ouncers the next day. $199.
Losing money is fun on eBay.
JM bullion is asking about $255 for tenth oz coins. Yeah.... eBay sill offers up better deals from we dumbed down sellers.
Did you notice that last Sunday's gold auctions on GC were a lot of zero bid, high reserve coins? Things have slowed down unless it has CAC stickers.
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The economy is really bad right now, so it's not very surprising. It's a terrible time to buy a house or car for sure! Few people are willing to pay car dealerships 10-20% "market adjustment" fee, and the Fed has ratcheted up the percentage rates on home loans to where they are double what they were 18 months ago. Essentials like food and fuel are ridiculously expensive as well, so luxuries like rare coins, currency and sports cards are really suffering.
Dwayne F. Sessom
Ebay ID: V-Nickel-Coins
Doesn't seem that bad to me, candidly. Most of my friends are still gainfully employed and still have work to do, so they're at no real risk of losing their positions. Sure, life is more expensive than it was 12 months ago and raises don't keep pace because of corporate greed, but that is why you job hop and get those raises.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
It's totally believable. People's income has been dropping in terms of real dollars. Prices are going up on food, fuel, etc so people are being forced to cut back on luxury items such as coins.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I haven't personally been much affected either, but I consider myself very fortunate. I have no mortgage and my car is within a year of being paid off. My kids are all grown and out of the house. But I have had conversations with more than a few friends who just a year ago were looking to buy a new house or car who have since changed their mind.
Dwayne F. Sessom
Ebay ID: V-Nickel-Coins
And that makes a bad economy? I politely disagree.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Corporate greed? I politely disagree.
Corporate greed is nothing more then a negative connotation "against" capitalism in this country. I want corporations (and you) to make as much money as possible! It's called a Free Market Economy........at least it was! Corporations create the jobs and make money for their shareholders.
Flippers buy at Heritage, Stacks, Great Collections, etc. and then put it on eBay at 3 or 4 times what they paid for it. No wonder sales are down.
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I don't think Ebay on its own is a good data point. There aren't all that many true auctions out there for the desirable stuff, but far more super high BIN's. Quite a few of those don't even have the make an offer option. Part of that might be that people overpaid for those items or are trying to catch a well off suckerfish.
10-4,
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You gotta wonder how many people have adjustable-rate mortgages. Any who do know they are in for a substantial shock, and it probably affects their discretionary spending.
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Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
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"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
The economy is slowing. The time to have dumped your "ordinary" collectible coins may now be in the past. eBay is a prime source for "ordinary" collectibles so it is no surprise that things are slowing down.
So > @DelawareDoons said:
Looks like about 1 in 8 mortgages are adjustable-rate (10% straight adjustable, and ~3% 5/1 adjustable) So the folks with straight adjustables, and those with 5/1s that they got 5 or more years ago, are in for some serious re-budgeting.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
I’d want to see actual data vice a few folks statements on the matter.
Prices for most everything are up. Those additional dollars that are spent on food, gas and electricity are obviously no longer available to spend on hobbies. You don't need data to recognize this.
I think you're misreading the chart. The middle and right columns are the interest rate, not percent participation. That chart shows 10% of all mortgages are ARMs.
I am just an "n of 1"... but I'm really happy that I got into a conventional mortgage about a year and a half ago at 3.0%... and I paid off my car. I had a bit more discretionary income over the summer thanks to a Stimulus check I wasn't counting on and some forum members and ebay sellers capitalized on that. Now that the stimulus money is gone, I'm back to my normal budget for coins... and it's tight. I have to wait a few months in between purchases...
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It shows 10% of mortgages issued in 2022 are ARM's. You want to look 5+ years back to see who will currently be watching their rates go up.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Right you are, I misread the chart. So about 10% of mortgages are adjustable-rate.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Ebay stock has been trending down somewhat but afaik their quarterly profits will not come out until the end of the quarter. One dealer spoke to the concierge desk at corporate that told him sales were substantially down in this category. Sure with products where supply is great the price pressures are downward; with quality and high end and one of a kind collectibles the prices and sales just keep going up. Ebay and this collectibles field are, I believe, much closer to a free market than what many corporations and franchises experience, that are not part of a real "free market" but have monopolistic advantages and government contracts especially military and pharma related contractors that can always rely on the government to come to their aid in adverse conditions. The tangible assets and collectibles marketplace is highly competitive without subsidies or corporate welfare.
Collectors are a dying breed. Younger generations are interested in little more than what they can play with on their phones.
Agreed. I don't see any decline. But especially the claim that summer was slow is dubious. Summer is usually a bit slower, but I saw things accelerate into the summer which really surprised me. Of course, my experience is totally anecdotal, but I have been expecting a slow down and repeatedly surprised by the resiliency of the collectible marketplace.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/ebay-beats-estimates-on-sales-and-earnings-forecast-shares-rise?leadSource=uverify wall
According to this article, strength in collectibles is helping to offset weakness in other areas.
Having a 30 year fixed rate home loan is great for homeowners given the current home loan market; however those same homeowners are still having to pay increased prices for goods and services.
Today's reality is nothing new; it is just part of a cycle that repeats itself. I remember home loan interest rates being 18% or more at the end of the Carter administration and the beginning of the Reagan administration.
Of course, at that time people could place surplus money that they had into Bank Certificates Of Deposit (with 1 year, 5 year and even 10 year terms) and earn 10% + on their invested money).
That was for the last quarter, will we have to wait until November to get third quarter results for ebay?
Ebay has been really slow for sometime. However I have got some good deals. Shows have done much better for me.
I think a lot of Us Classic Coins seem over valued and people are buying stuff like PCGS ASE in 69 for around $40 (like I did just recently).
CPG for a generic MS63 Morgan Dollar (has less silver than ASE) is around $100.
The cost of living for many has been rising. People are struggling to get by. Not to mention the world could be on brink WW3.
However I have been pursuing currency deals and world coins. A recent banknote submission to our hosts (CSA & Obsoletes) many came back top pop.
Correct. But the alleged CS reps have to be referring to the last quarter numbers
You betcha. The clearance rack is unbelievable if you can tolerate buying six months out of season.
Prices realized in the material I am interested in at auction houses have remained strong. EBay of course is mostly not an auction site anymore. The fixed-priced things I am interested in on eBay have not seen any prices reductions though. Neither of those directly translates to the volume of sales data the OP brought up, but it does suggest there's no weakness in the collectibles I follow.
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Normally, I make about 20 or so sales each week on eBay. In the last two weeks, I have sold five coins.
FWIW...
I think a lot of people (myself included) were caught off guard by that inflation report last Tuesday which has shed 10% off of a total index fund (general market), but absolutely crushed other long positions.
Yes, but part of the reason may be that the items being sold are NOT rare. This is usually the reality. Most of the stuff is common. not even scarce.
You are right but it's not just the last few years. Take a look at graphs of median household income and median net worth on FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of STL). "Real" median income and net worth are essentially flat back to the late 1990's. Median net worth a little better but only because of the biggest asset mania in history lasting the entire 21st century.
I presume coin collectors are on average better off and maybe noticeably so, but most are hardly rolling in cash.
I often use Ebay to look for a coin that I want, and if I find one and the dealer has a website, I will buy from the website because the price is always higher on Ebay to cover fees. The dealer would still get a sale, but not through Ebay. I'm not sure if that's good, bad, or indifferent to dealers, but thought it was worth mentioning.
Dwayne F. Sessom
Ebay ID: V-Nickel-Coins
I hope the economy takes a step back, I want one of the new Supras with the 6 speed but can’t see paying the 100k my local dealer wants for a 57k MSRP car
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Anecdotally, our sales have slowed to a crawl. The fact, that We've had to close the store two to three times in the past two months hasn't helped.
IMO: It's too early to see the full consequence of a recession. Are we seeing wholesale layoffs at the moment? It takes time to permeate through the economy before decision makers act. . I'm still seeing for hire signs all over the place. We heard that the hurricane will hit, but we only beginning to see the winds pick up,
so we haven't had the wholesale hunkering down yet. Let's talk in 6 months.
I don't see any decline in my coin eBay sales, but virtually everything I sell is via auction. Most of my stuff is mostly very common bullion coins. Naturally prices have softened, but less than the drop in bullion prices.
I notice many fixed priced sellers have kept their asking prices optimistic, which I believe accounts for their poor sales.
"Anecdotal evidence" for sure, for what it's worth.
Word is that diving boards are being installed on Wall St.